just a final one, jonathan powell, the - one, jonathan powell, the national security adviser here in

jonathan powell strategically vital british territory.rt of reception do you think jonathan powell will get at the white house? >> i hope the reception he gets is you are not going to make this deal with mauritius. the whole basis of this, i'm written about this for the wall street journal. it's ridiculous to acknowledge mauritius' claim. the mood they are in and the white house today, you should offer to give them sovereignty to the united states. maybe trump would take it. christian: the prime minister here would say we are following international law. >> that is ridiculous, a fantasy. interestingly, no one has bothered to take a referendum of the checo silence since the diaspora. heaven forbid you might ask them who sovereignty they want to be under. my understanding it would not be mauritius. that is for sure. christian: ambassador bolton, thank you for your time. john bolton speaking to me earlier. we will get reaction to that from our panel later in the program. let's take a short break. around the world and across the u.k., you are

jonathan: double dose of chairman powell to start this week.omorrow, the chairman of the federal reserve in front of the senate. wednesday, in front of the house. wednesday morning, 8:30 eastern time, cpr. so far, so good, up 0.4% in the s&p 500. the bond market totally unchanged in the face of a lot of headlines that shift the bond market one way or the other based on what you would have heard of. the president of the united states making comments that could be a problem, that we have been reading about with treasuries, that could be a problem because maybe we have less debt than we thought of. now we are trying to explain what the president meant. lisa: he said treasuries, the treasury market saying there is no way he could mean treasuries. if he means treasuries, he is saying the u.s. government will not pay all of its legal debts that are the full faith benchmark rate for all of the world's securities, so people are saying it cannot possibly be that. it has to be the line out from the treasury department that d.o.g.e. has been going after.

jonathan: chairman powell said he would wait to see poll policy articulated. what does he do now?ve to wait. this is a day-to-day thing. president trump is speaking with the leaders of canada and mexico. there's at least a nontrivial chance we never see these 25% tariffs. >> given that a lot of companies aren't sure what to do with this, the former st. louis fed president was earlier on and says he sees this as more of a growth shock than inflationary shock. based on everything you have read and seen so far would you agree? stephen: totally agree. so the inflation story has been the one that's gotten the most run in terms of tariffs. the problem with that story is that tariffs are a one-time change in the price level. it's not a persistent change in the rate of change of prices which is inflation. and so in theory the fed is supposed to look through that. i realize easier said than done but if you go back to 2018, i know very different economic landscape but the main issue back then was growth, not inflation. it had a significant impact on growth. >> the argument people make again

jonathan: there are questions about we are accommodative will restrictive. jay powell the new conference, can you square that circle at all? pres. barkin: we are somewhat restrictive. i don't think we are hugely restrictive. less than we were six months ago. we will see as we go. if inflation continues to come down, that would be a positive sign. if the economy continues to perform at a decent but not overheated level, that's a sign. if you see the economy heat up, you have to ask yourself those questions. jonathan: president barkin, thank you. the federal reserve bank of richmond president tom barkin alongside michael mckee. up next, chevron ceo mike wirth and congressman jason smith of missouri. all that is up next. ♪ >> the exceptionalism is still firmly in place. but the fundamentals underpinning this exceptionalism are at risk. >> almost all of the policies we have heard floated from washington do have an inflationary element. but markets will care less if it comes with the side of growth. >> the fog now is so dense in terms of what this is going to mean for busin

lori and powell agree over the long-term rates are meaningfully restrictive. , easily 100 basis points too high. that is the path of least resistance, but maybe not this year. jonathanttention on the earnings side of the picture coming in hotter than expected. the first move not necessarily the right move. the 10-year yield is higher by two basis points. the 10 year higher by three. i am not sure this data will constrain them one way or the other. if you are an investor looking at this, things are still ok based on the court. -- this report. lisa: things might be less ok if you are a stock investor with some of them depending on it going lower. jonathan: good morning. you've had a few minutes to go over this one. what is your first take? >> the framework the fed uses to evaluate is the taylor rule. it has two variables, unemployment and inflation. both components are pointing at the fed at least staying on hold. this is not enough to consider hiking. the tailwinds to growth continue strong. we have strong defense spending, strong tailwinds from the chips act and all things supporting the u.s. consumer. if we do get lower taxes on social security, over, tips, this wi

jonathan: if the data point is a tariff, what do you do with that? chairman powellon to articulate the policy changes. they did over the weekend and then they did not happen. they backed away. let's say tariffs happen and they meet on march 19 and they last for two or three weeks. they have to put up forecasts. they have to base that on tariffs that might not last that long. that is difficult to set policy for. lisa: that's why i'm looking at job openings and how tight the labor market is. to francis donald's point, we don't have people to fill the jobs. i'm curious about the outlook for different companies and earnings look like. are they retrenching some investment? is there a hit the confidence? are people saying we have a president who wants to move fast, he might break some things but it's a progrowth agenda and a lot of this is in the right direction? jonathan: i want them to succeed. i hope this goes well. i want to see the confidence translate into economic activity. i am worried about whether that confidence gets damaged and you don't see the hiring decisio