jonathan: orange phosphate? tom: this garbage was my childhood. could take it off the shelf and be like somebody on a gemini spacecraft. you've got to be kidding me. jonathan: is it a slow news day? tom: we are saved by anita bryant. she sold us on oranges. jonathan: lee ferridge, state street head of multi-asset. getting through it. i felt pretty bad this morning. lisa: we are helping out a lot, i'm sure. tom: get vaccinated, folks, like jon ferro. lisa: me today. tom: take someone with you. jon took vet bill. jonathan: for new york, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. i might walk. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i think we could have an employment and productivity boom and a real change. >> we are looking not just at the peak. we are looking at the sustainability of these trends. >> what we have to question is have things structurally really changed. >> what the bond market is telling you, not so fast. the fed has the upper hand. >> it is clear to me that the fed is not raising rates until the end of 2022,

jonathan: have you got paramount+. tomwe had spongebob weekend, and we got weed if it -- and we got rid of it. [laughter] jonathan: what is spongebob weekend? tom: i don't know, it is some culture. no, i'm watching red sox get it done. padres are just dying. jonathan: how are you watching baseball? tom: i'm watching some baseball. i'm watching national league ball. am sort of in a traditionalist mode. jonathan: gina martin adams going us now, bloomberg intelligence chief equity strategist. we won't talk about anything we just talked about for the last five minutes or so. we will talk about this equity market, still on the cyclical side of things in the airlines, and the small caps. what is your take on things? gina: i think a lot of this is simply low vol stocks cut cyclically over trade. low volatility sucks just got completely left out for the last year. we are more oversold than we have ever seen in our records, and are actually trading in line with the index on valuations, which is a complete oddity for the last decade

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. i'm getting out of here. tom: is ok. will be transitory. jonathan: the fake blackeye. i know we will already have some emails. they take everything so seriously. tom: they do. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: i am ritika gupta. it has gone from bad to worse in india where there has been a million cases of the coronavirus in the last few days. the u.s. pledge descendant law materials and step up financing aid for vaccine production. prime minister modi imploring indians to get vaccinated and disregard rumors about dangerous side effects. boris johnson is fighting to get his government back on track, dealing with claims about his conduct. according to the daily mail, johnson said last year he would rather see bodies piled high in their thousands then order a third lockdown. johnson's office denied he made the comments. bloomberg has learned a company will offer zero interest loans to employees who own illiquid stock options to try to prevent the potential exit of staff who had expected a windfall before the company's i

tom: -- jonathan: have you ever used one of them? tom: i was like can you come up and fix this. jonathan: i bought some black & decker's. tom: could i see you at like 3:30, thank you. jonathan: we are both familiar with the heritage and unfamiliar with the product. citi global head of investment joining us now. let's talk about the key discussion. the best way, the cleanest way to get exposure, a durable exposure to a better american economy? >> i want to be tom's repair man. this is a pretty extraordinary time and you hit upon a couple of themes. incredible revenue growth for technology companies and the benefit of course to their stocks. that's what's benefiting the economy. it's incredible efficiency and flexibility of companies, a and u.s. companies. using the great example, the idea of what growth is to come. when we talk about an economy growing 68% after pandemic, one is the ability to spend in the other is due to household savings and that ability to spend is due to the fact people don't have the opportunity to leave their home to do work for themselves. what we are seein

jonathan: is there anyone left, tom? tom: i'm asking you. [laughter] jonathan: the miscalculation of some of the leaders of global flood all has been -- global suitable has been astounding. tom: what is the embarrassment to the italian elite here? jonathan: i think it is an embarrassment to everyone involved. it is embarrassing for everybody involved, and it is not a lack of understanding of the game of football. i've had more of that narrative come out of english football, that somehow the force owners don't understand. the owners, can you get any more italian than the -- family? this is about losing money, and these big clubs want to consolidate their power to try to make more money. they've made a serious miss calculation. six english teams pulled out, one after another. what is interesting now, the ft reporting that these are binding contracts that will take money to exit. one key point, the ft also reports that that money and that exit fee was conditional on the league starting. the league didn't start. so i have no idea what the legal i

tom: i stopped by the carlisle. jonathan: i was waiting for that. tom: it is like the same thing. it is the pubs. here it is the carlisle. jonathan: it is freezing. that's the difference between you and i. you go to the carlisle, i go to the pub. it's a very different life. tom: romaine would go to both. jonathan: we will get to romaine in a second. 10 year, three year a little bit later today. your yield right now on 30's unchanged. i would like to think r omaine would begin the pub with me, and not in the carlisle. i think he's that kind of guy. romaine: don't make me choose between you two. lisa: well done. [laughter] romaine: a big week for markets. you have a earnings that you just alluded to. anchor earnings, economic work -- bank earnings, economic reports. microsoft said to be preparing a deal for nuance. people might remember this company had that dragon voice recognition software where you can speak into your graph on -- your microphone and it would allow you to dictate. that company has since really gone a lot deeper into ai and voice recognition. microsoft apparently wa

: crushed -- jonathan: tom, look at where we started the year. organ, a 4400. tom: the last hour of trading friday, that was a moonshot. jonathan: coming up, we catch up with joshua sharfstein, johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health vice dean with vaccination numbers in america continuing to rocket. how high can they go? 4.6 million saturday. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. regulators in china told ant group to become a financial holding company that could be regulated more like a bank. that is significant guidance since they halted a record ipo. the also told aunt to rectify -- they also told ant to end information monopoly. chairman powell says the principal risk is that the coronavirus with spread again. he also said the fed would do everything it can to support the economy as long as it takes to -- it takes. iran's head atomic officials as there was an attempt to thwart iran's nuclear process. iran began injecting uranium saturday. apple is facing a supply shortage affecting the upcoming ipad pr

jonathan: i know you don't usually wake up before 8:00, so thank you. [laughter] tomthink we ought to do this tomorrow. jonathan: we were so kind to him for so long, if a five minutes. josh will be back now, tom, tomorrow morning. tom: absolutely. jonathan: i look forward to it. this is the defining issue for this administration in many ways. they are trying to sell it domestically by talking about hiring, good paying union jobs. i think lisa was right to point out how they sell it internationally might be a little bit different. tom: what is so important here is what happens after the biden adminstration. if we have a democrat administration, or particularly the gop wins, what do we do? do we swing back to the trump view on climate change? jonathan: that's why the federal government specifically has a credibility issue, not the cities, and not corporations, who will continue to do what they have been doing for the last several years, the last decade. lisa: that is why it is interesting to see what proposal they have. jonathan: on this thursday, also in ecb rate decis

jonathan ferro. bank earnings top of mind. tom: what was that about? jonathan: retail sales a couple of hours away. tom: bank of america out a little bit early. we will get to it in a moment. retail sales is front and center and that 70% of our american economy and a boom economy. how much did retail sales boom? i will go to control group when we see those numbers. jonathan: big expectations. brian moynihan has something to say. consumers flush with cash. businesses flush with cash. that is the headline story in america. tom: go right back to asset size. the two banks together, jp morgan and bank of america are $6.5 trillion in assets. granted, there's a lot of noise but that is indicative of the amount of money, the amount of stuff that is out there for this american economy to drive forward. jonathan: city earnings in couple of hours. lisa, retail sales. lisa: that is paired with all of the cash on the sidelines, these cash deposit of counts. -- icons. people are spending it now. after the stimulus checks, a big pickup in credit card sales. that feeds into the high retail sales figure. there is a

tom: i'm speechless. jonathan: evidently. tom: i'm crying here. gayeski on bitcoin. than: can you take a second, tom? you kickback. look relaxed. coming up, david page, accent and this managers head of macroeconomics. tom: i've got an order at $65,000. jonathan: nice. (text chime) (text chime) (text chime) (sighs) (text chime) (chuckles) (text chime) it's the biggest week in television. watchathon week is your chance to finally watch shows you missed for free. now you get to talk about them with your friends, no matter what time it is. say "watchathon" into your voice remote and watch for free jonathan: from new york, live on tv and radio, for our audience worldwide, here's the price this monday morning. futures negative on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq, we come in about 0.3%. tesla after the close wednesday, apple thursday. speaking of wednesday, chairman paolo the federal reserve at a news conference. then on wednesday, the president addressing congress. in the bond market, everybody in fixed income all believe that the fed, the ecb make a move when they put out the fo

tom: i'm looking at london lme palladium. jonathan: what do you see? tom: moonshot, hyperbolic. an: thank you. copper, $9,892. the earnings today, tomorrow, thursday all piling up. here's romaine bostick. romaine: let's start with travel, housing, and e-commerce. jetblue did report here. demand is picking up, and the company seems bullish about that demand persisting through the summer. the problem is those costs are rising. labor costs rising, as well as fuel costs, and company saying that is going to put a crimp in profitability going forward. there's also a bit of concern about revenue on a year-over-year basis. the forecast is still for a drop on revenue from the previous year, though still an improvement from the pandemic levels. pultegroup reporting. sales for homes continues to go higher. investors may be a little concerned about the persistence of some of this. you can find 19% revenue growth in the first quarter. they are still looking for 20% plus growth for the next three quarters. some investors are now starting to wonder whether that is going to be met. ups also havi

jonathan: how's that working out? tom: the new look at apple, take the verizon media phrase, connect people to their passions, and throw it over to apple. those are the winners, losers in this derby. jonathan: one company is doing it, the other company isn't. equities at all-time highs on the s&p 500, 40 do hundred. we had -- 4200. we advanced 0.7%. yields higher on tens to 1.6504%. a big call out of goldman we will touch a bit later on on the commodity market. lisa: it is a boom market. perhaps mcdonald's is connecting people to crispy chicken sandwiches, which evidently was one of the reasons why they said comp sales were so good. today we are looking not just towards crispy chicken sandwiches, but also initial jobless claims are expected to come down. i still wonder why they are not coming down faster. the expectation is for about 530,000 new jobless claims. still a lot of people getting benefits. what is going to make this number go down to really as -- go down materially as the world reopens and the summertime emerge

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. coming into monday, we declined by nine points, around .2%. it is a no drama market morning. tom: in the last hour, you nailed it where you said is a european week and americans have to sit still and wait for europe to speak. the news to me is europe finally with better pandemic information. jon: the outlook is better because vaccinations have improved. we have had eight straight weeks of gains -- seven straight weeks of gains, i will correct myself. that is phenomenal. the euro is through 1.20. tom: we look at the big banks, i believe apple -- it will be drip, drip, drip coca-cola reaffirming their organic revenue growth at 6%. that is a big number. that would be 4% maybe without powell, fiscal stimulus, this boom economy. jon: first quarter organic revenue, plus 6%. lisa: that is exactly where i was going to go. the estimate being so much lower than the actual figure. it raises the question -- are analysts overestimating or underestimating the growth in earnings we will see, and so f

jonathan: -- tom: that is a huge number. ey need to figure out a delta of $25 billion today to figure out how to get back to a comfortable cash raise. jonathan: do you want another big number from morgan stanley? you brought up payrolls a little bit earlier. payrolls, 1.2 5 million dollars is their estimate. right now, the median, $900,000. tom: this is so important. we are going out to michael feroli, we will find 7 million employed over the summer. lisa: does this count for jay powell? bully address that? -- will he address that? jonathan: we will figure that out later today. equity futures unchanged on the s&p. he is so upset now. [laughter] have you got a late afternoon, tom? looking forward to the show. tom: what about the "surveillance" nap? jonathan: you can take it in the pantry. isaac boltansky coming up next. this is bloomberg. ritika: tonight, president biden will unveil a $1.8 trillion plan to expand education opportunities and childcare for families. it will be paid for in part by the largest tax hikes on wealthy

jonathan: many people are. tom: amazing. jonathan: just for you, so you can have another drink -- lisa: just drink anyway. jonathan: transitory. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden will pledge to cut u.s. greenhouse omissions in half by 2030. that nearly doubles a commitment made under former president obama that was later scrapped by former president trump. president biden will convene 41 leaders in a virtual climate summit that begins today. more fallout from credit suisse. the swiss bank expects a $654 million second-quarter hit. a swiss regulator has asked credit suisse to add more than $2 billion of capital. >> we are all responsible for what happened. it is not our job -- now our job to take credit suisse to the next level. we have a lot of good elements in his first quarter we can build on. together with the board of directors, we are doing this investigation and we will build on that. ritika: meanwhile, swiss regulators are starting proceedings against credit suisse. jill biden is set to become the first pres

tom: because it is america. jonathanre more fearful of having people on the streets in the open air than having that conversation. tom: i don't know what else to say. there is a huge differential here, mostly it is in food consumption, size of meals. like me and lisa. lisa: any time. jonathan: coming up, chris verrone. the plot thickens. lisa: i think this will be the issue we have to deal with, pandemic weight gain, and we have to talk about that. jonathan: equity futures up three on the s&p. this is bloomberg. (text chime) (text chime) (text chime) (sighs) (text chime) (chuckles) (text chime) it's the biggest week in television. watchathon week is your chance to finally watch shows you missed for free. now you get to talk about them with your friends, no matter what time it is. say "watchathon" into your voice remote and watch for free ♪ ♪ all week. look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for

tom: where are we going to be in a year? jonathan to be more surprised about how quickly things move back to normal. tom: i am in that camp. lisa: i would agree as welllisa: . jonathan: dan skelly, morgan stanley, as we take a moment to agree on something. [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> if things normalize, we are going to see a shift back towards services, and that means taking some of the pressure off the goods sector. >> the mentor liquid at the out there, for trillion dollars plus in money markets, saving rates near all-time highs, all of these bode well for the architect. >> this is all reopening, fiscal stimulus. how much does behavior change? >> there will be i think temporary inflation over the next 12 to 18 months. >> long-term big picture, the fed has a long track record

tom: have you and lisa made up? jonathan: just getting into it a little bit, having a chat, talking about credit. futures, 4200. tom: i'm shocked. that is an exclusive. [laughter] jonathan: lisa is one of us. she says what she thinks. that's not passive-aggressive. you know? just say what you think. in new york, everyone gives you a hug. it's so good to see you. it's been so long. it's been so long for a reason. [laughter] lisa: oh my god. jonathan: don't you experience that, guys? it's been so long. from new york, this is bloomberg. tom: have a beverage. it's transitory. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden is betting he can sell the american public on sweeping change. in a speech before congress, the president called for higher taxes on the wealthy to fund massive investment in the nation's social security net. he's asking for trillions of dollars for infrastructure, childcare, education, and subsidies for working-class families. policies may force the president to abandon some of the more am

jonathan: getting this show back on the rails. good morning. alongside tomsa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity market, all-time highs into thursday's session. tom: it is the way we are up, but it is the way we have

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. we have not talked enough about this, near one million payrolls and claims maybe will confirm that trend today. jonathan: and job openings skyhigh in america today. i know lisa wants to talk about may be a labor shortage in the months to come. all-time highs on the s&p 500, and it is a nasdaq come back. nasdaq 100 futures up about 0.8%. tom: that is a bull market. we saw this from james dimon yesterday. i want to go to the reading right now, which is the zeitgeist about this year and maybe the zeitgeist out next year, and we are beginning to hear of a boom that could extend beyond two quarters. jonathan: that is a change. i'm totally with you. tom: that's rare. jonathan: people are talking about it a little more over the last month. the jamie dimon piece i think covered what has already been covered to thousand times over the last couple of months, with the exception of one thing, the story of 2023, that maybe this boom can continue. so

jonathan: optimism around the red sox. alongside tomathan ferro on bloomberg. ♪ >> you are going to see rates move higher. the economy is about to accelerate. >> whether there is an uptick in inflation, to be determined, but the debate has changed, and that matters. >> there are certain forces at work slowing down the recovery in the world economy. >> you have started to see volatility climb again. that is not typically a good sign. >> there's a catch up happening and correcting for the covid stock. -- the covid shock. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: all-time highs. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan

jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz back with us on monday. tom: no hope right now. when we speak with richard clarida to, it is going to be about the reality of the boom economy. the coffee is good this morning. jonathan: i was with you. we are on the same page. tom: there's another exclusive. how where is that? -- how rare is that? i'm looking at levels, and they tell me boom economy. jonathan: that rotation flipped to the other way. i think that is interesting, too . is that just a pause from what we have seen in the last six months, or are we snapping back the other way? tom: i am going to wait until earnings and those expectations out. how brave are corporate officers going to be to get out to q3, q4? i think they will really say we don't know, and then you get an idea of margin sustainability, but critically, what is the revenue line doing in a boom economy? jonathan: jp morgan kicking things off next week with earnings. we get in inflation print, then the debate really picks up. on the equity market, a little bit of a lift on the s&p 500. futures had a sneak pe

jonathan: do you thing i have a clue, really? i go to the games sometimes. tom: in the national league, the pitcher bats. much more importantly, they advanced the runabout bunting. on radio, folks, i am doing the bunting with the bat. they played national league ball last night. jonathan: thank you for that. i just need the yankees need to knock you back quickly. tom: very impressive. jonathan: mark howard with bnp paribas joins us now. let's talk expectations. have we seen peak expectations for this economy? mark: domestically, i think you are right. i think there is a concern at least in the near term. as tom rightly highlights, we are in uncharted territory. there are a lot of unknowns, and we are getting that since from the company's as they report -- from the companies as they report. a lot of the results we have seen already have been around markets. as lisa has pointed out, net interest margin loan growth has been uninspiring. with a decline recently in yields, it may not become inspiring soon. what i am hearing from big institutional clients is some conc

tom: let's go down to our real experience. jonathan: are you fully vaccinated? uld you go to europe? jonathan: i will not offer any advice. if it is logical to travel here, it might be logical to travel somewhere else. this is an interesting morning. yields up three basis points. ♪ >> it has gone from bad to worse in india where they have a million cases of the coronavirus in the last three days. the premise to -- the prime minister urging people to get vaccinated. boris johnson is fighting to get his government back on track. he is dealing with complaints about his conduct during the pandemic. johnson's office denied he made the comments. republicans may be willing to back $900 billion in infrastructure spending. lindsey graham floated the proposal on fox news. he suggested deficit spending could be a way to avoid tax hikes. at the academy awards, the first woman of color to win best director. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it i

jonathan: do using they would be making another move? tomthey are in zurich, and zurich is a unique place. you go to the mcdonald's above louis vuitton there and it is like $14 for a number two. jonathan: i've been there with you. we did not go to mcdonald's. i know that. management knows that, too. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. u can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and to

tom: i think the europeans have to provide a lot of leadership. jonathanrope is the problem child on so many issues. germany under russia, germany over china. so many things need to be worked out. tom: to me what they can deal with in the next few days is a reaffirmation of the paris agreement. jonathan: good morning. this cash equity shaping up as follows. off by a 10th of 1%. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ surveillance. ♪ jonathan: good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. two straight days of losses on the s&p and nasdaq, of the russell, the small caps down monday through tuesday. a little bit up on the russell. down 2/10 on the nasdaq. the s&p 500 basically unchanged. yields look like this, a little bit higher. we creep up by a basis point or two. finally in foreign exchange a quick look at euro-dollar if we can. euro clinging onto a 1.20 handle. down a about a third of 1% on the six session -- the session. tom: didn't we see a lot of strategies line up markers to a stronger euro? jonathan: the path forward pretty cl

tom: a selmer, ok. jonathan: charlie parker. tom: i think we need a concert. : they are about to happen now. those are the rules of engagement on this show. [laughter] jordan: not happening. jonathan: jordan, it's good to catch up. tom: jordan rochester, thank you. jonathan: let me just bring you a headline out of europe right now. pfizer to boost the second-quarter vaccines applied to the eu by 25% to 250 million doses. that headline just crossing the bloomberg right now. pfizer to boost 2q vaccines applied to the eu to 250 million doses. some better news out of europe on the vaccine front over the past couple of days. tom: deutsche bank really reaffirms the stronger euro call in the last few hours, and j polasky -- and hay -- and jay pelosky said the same thing. jonathan: we will touch on this pandemic with dr. jonathan quick of the rockefeller foundation. from york city this morning, good morning -- from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: warren buffett, amazon, and blackrock are uniting to sign onto to a letter denouncing w

tom: i don't agree. jonathan: i don't know what's going on with either of you. tom: j.p. morgan and goldman sachs, which one measures you the most. jonathan: let's go straight to the price action. equity futures like like this. up around three points. there's a big picture of me, hopefully we can get to the price action. tom: your entourage put that in. jonathan: can we just start again. [laughter] is everyone with us today. is tom sober? bond yields are higher by a couple of basis points. lisa: today we are expecting earnings. let's talk about j.p. morgan kicking off earnings and ash in about 45 minutes time. then we will be getting goldman sachs and wells fargo. this will kick off the whole week. people will be looking to the dealmakers. really saying goldman sachs could stand to benefit the most from that surge in enemy. jay powell going to be speaking along with a host of other fed speakers. speaking with our own david room and sign -- with our own david rubenstein. interesting what he'll have to say about the vaccination schedule and how that affects their tapering. t

tom: it was a transitory shot. jonathan: let's round this out. a stronger euro under the mix. convergence as we go deeper into the year. tom: there is a lot of correlation set up. 89 would be stunning. jonathan: there it is, crude. lisa: you see inventories are coming down dramatically and you are synced demand pick up which raises some pressure for the price of crude. what am i looking for today? the very slow news action. apple holding its very first product release of 2021. air tags. you can track things with the little chip. i love this idea for when you are feeling a little hung over. 2:45 p.m., president biden will be speaking at an electric battery facility. this is interesting to me after the secretary of state's comments. some of the technology that could come back this to reduce -- combat this to reduce the carbon footprint. after the market, netflix will report their first quarter earnings. i am interested to see if subscriber numbers will plummet if people can go out and do other things. tom: everybody should see it to see the use of black-and-white. they purposeful

jonathan: both, given the last couple of minutes. tomi would call this a "surveillance" snooze fest. jonathan: keep selling it. the "bloomberg surveillance" snooze fest. jim paulsen coming up later. he can't wait to join. [laughter] on radio, on tv. it's friday. this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. president biden is proposing a capital gains tax almost twice as high as it is now. those earning $1 million or more could pay as much as 43.4%. the president wants the increase to help pay for a raft of social spending to address inequality. russia is withdrawing thousands of troops from the ukraine border today. western leaders had called on moscow to pull troops back. there were fears conflict could lead to new economic sanctions. panasonic has agreed to buy american artificial intelligence software developer blue yonder for $7.1 billion. panasonic will fund the deal through cash and a bridge loan. the company also has a 20% stake in blue yonder, which uses ai to predict product demand. daimler predict

tom: you are worse than mccormick is. jonathan a great rollout of the vaccine, why agree short verses -- why are you short versus the mexican peso? doing this just for you, tom. carry on, mark. [laughter] mark: a lot of people expecting a little more of a of a cycle. what we are seeing is they are obviously shifting towards a focus on inflation and inflation expectations. they are a lot more hawkish than people expected at the last meeting. they will probably tighten over the coming year. if you think about the u.s. infrastructure package, who benefits the most from u.s. growth? canada and mexico. if you are think about energy, links to the north american growth cycle, all linked to that play on base metals. jonathan: i appreciate that. tom: jon, you are worse than he is. jonathan: that is the sound of the audience. [laughter] thank you, mark mccormick of td. i'm almost at that long weekend. lisa: we are going to make it feel long. tom: are you going to san diego? jonathan: little-known fact, lisa lived in chile for a year. lisa:

jonathan: if tom keene were here, he would tell me to get a life. [laughter] mickey levy joining us now, berenberg's chief economist. inflation coming in hot, retail sales coming in better, bonds rallied. do you think this inflation story could be more persistent? mickey: i do believe it will be more persistent. the cbi, we have a base effect and higher oil prices going through retail. we all know the economy is reopening. if, following the reopening, there is continued strength in aggregate demand, which i expect based on all the stimulus, we have never seen anything like it. businesses will have the flexibility to raise product prices which we are beginning to see. inflation is going to rise modestly. i think there is no question at all. i listened to your opening remarks. i think too many people, including the fed, are looking back to post-financial crisis and saying we will have the same pattern this time. if you look at monetary policy, fiscal policy, the consumer, banking, or any other industry, it is opposite of what happened post-financial c

jonathan: i would be excited about that, too. that was tom palmer, newmont ceo and president. gside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene will be back with us on monday. the 10 year to 1.643 7%. in the equity market, positive, the negative, down 27 on the s&p 500. down on the day by about 0.5%. euro-dollar down 0.3%. a negative gdp print against a much better u.s. read. relatively speaking, the story obvious through coup you want -- obvious through q1. $63.74 on wti. crude on the year up 31.47%. this line from goldman earlier in the week, "we see commodities rallying another 13.5% over the next six months, with oil reaching $80 a barrel and copper reaching $11,000, with risks to the upside." lisa: it is dramatic. you think about how this super cycle will be different because it is not being led by china. but this goes to the whole idea of disinflationary tilts. there was a story on the bloomberg today that copper, the fact it has risen so much, it does bring up the china is reducing their use of it. so how much is this supply/demand going to change based on the high st

tom: there is a pothole on 3rd avenue. jonathan: several. tom: every cap i am in, we hit the axle. i just wanted to fix the pothole. jonathan: what is it about new york state, as soon as you cross over into a different state, the roads get smoother again. you know when you have made it to connecticut. lisa: there should be a sign. tom: it is not europe. full disclosure. i know it is only $630 billion. it is an outrage where this nation is versus when you travel to europe or even parts of asia jonathan: jonathan: over the better infrastructure. switzerland, specifically. let's bring in ron temple. huge first quarter. we know the winners, the banks, energy and small caps. can this continue? >> i think there could still be upside in markets. i think what we have got is a really powerful recovery. when i look at growth, i think we are going to see the strongest economic growth in 50 years. you have that pent up savings. excess savings of $2 trillion. massive pent-up demand to spend that money. government stimulus and very importantly, central banks that are not only going to keep their

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on the s&p. we events about 0.2 percent. yields higher by a single basis point, and euro-dollar through the week clinging onto $1.20. -- clinging onto 1.20 -- clinging onto one dollar 20 since. -- clinging onto $1.20. tom: lara davidson is with bloomberg tax. she last night moved the markets and moved the world of washington with reporting on a very large capital gains tax increase. in your reporting and preparing the very important breaking news, what was the hardest thing to confirm within the reporting? laura: really, the hardest thing is will they go with that top rate north of 40%. that was really the issue. this legacy tax applied basically to all capital gains, so there were a lot of questions of do you stack those two rates to have a race that is north of 40%, and ultimately -- a rate that is north of 40%, and ultimately, that is what they are going to go with. this is something that democrats are interestingly pretty united on. republicans have said they are not going to vote

alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us on monday. es at all-time highs, 4170 on the s&p 500, up 0.2%. yields basically unchanged. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. tom keene is back on monday. is the moment you've been waiting for. housing starts. upside surprise. the number we were looking for 13.5%. building permits month on month 2.7%. median estimate 1.7%. upside surprise on cpi, blowout number on retail sales. on housing starts -- i know i'm playing it down. it has been a massive sector for this economy over last 12 months. housing starts up 19.4% month on month in march. lisa: just highlighting the lack of inventory to meet the demand. demand so far outstripping what we see in terms of supply for the housing market. the builders will meet the demand. the question for lumber prices, will they shoot higher after increasing so dramatically. a question for whether this is a good sign for the banks given the fact people left to ta

jonathan: it is 7:30 in new york city. for our audience worldwide, good morning. lisa abramowicz and me today. tomill be back on monday. i'm jonathan ferro. futures at record highs against a year-over-year number. first quarter net interest income, $2.03 billion. for the wealth management side of the business, net revenue, six point billion dollars cash net revenue, $6.0 billion. -- net revenue, 6.0 billion dollars. the numbers just incredible. morgan stanley saying they are resuming their share buyback program in the first quarter of 2021. another bank delivering some really nice numbers. lisa: i am curious how people are going to try to poke holes in this. the share is up more than 1%. the idea of 64% increase year-over-year, it wasn't like the first quarter was that terrible for the banks, but it just highlights how amazing it has been in 2021. jonathan: it is an upside surprise on morgan stanley numbers this morning. on the capital return program, resuming the share buyback program in the first quarter of 2021. repurchased 2.1 billion dollars of outstanding stock in the quarter. morgan stanley

that's golo.com. ♪ jonathan: good morning to you all. alongside tom lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. jobless claims coming out in the next couple of seconds. futures up .4% on the s&p. in the bond market, yields in four basis points. here's the data. here is michael. michael: unfortunately higher with jobless claims last week we broke through the 700,000 barrier, we broke through the other direction this time seven hundred 19,000 jobless claims last week. this will be a surprise because we thought the trend would be falling with more states opening up in the economy seeming to heat up. that is not the case. that is an increase of 61,000 from the previous week's level. the previous week's level also revised down to 658,000. it is a bigger jump than it appeared to be during the month. we look at the number of pandemic claims. the freelancer claims. they are at 237,000. a lot of people not working and trying to get some sort of assistance from the government. we also had some changes. i am not seeing exactly how this is working. there are going to b

jonathan: what accent is it? tom: i don't know, northern british. jonathan: classic. e i am from. tom: is it e-verton or everton? lisa: he just got the mute button. jonathan: lisa is not happy, i can tell you that. coming up, michael shaoul. everton. leicester. that northern british accent. euro-dollar, 1.2034. yields, 1.58. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels. get gym results at home in just 10 minutes a day. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. get off the floor

tom: when you make a mistake, it is once-in-a-lifetime. jonathani think we make them in every segment. but the economy is better, consumers and businesses are healthier than they were nine or 10 months ago. tom: it is the boom global economy. we have never seen this. jonathan: from new york, for our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. good news for the european union after deliveries of the johnson & johnson vaccine were put on hold. pfizer and biontech will now be raising deliveries to the eu by 50 million this quarter. the u.s. drugmaker will bring forward deliveries scheduled for the fourth quarter. bloomberg has learned that by the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 , the biden adminstration is planning to withdraw u.s. troops from afghanistan. the terrorist attack led to the american invasion that outed the country's taliban leadership. the u.s. will leave a few thousand troops in afghanistan as part of the may 1 target s

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. lisa abramowicz off today. you and i with the vice chair of the federal reserve in moments. these markets signal a boom economy. jonathan: they have been comfortable with high yields, consistent the briar -- the brighter outlook. inflation in america, tuesday the cpi print, we will start to see that build. is it just a head fake? is it transitory? how will we know? tom: we go up 900,000 jobs, and then you look at james dimon's letter, and it folds into 6%, 7%, a percent or more gdp. you wonder if this is original federal reserve odyssey for the rest of the year. jonathan: it is, but something has changed. we have gone from a forecast based federal reserve to an outcome based federal reserve, and that is a switch. only just now in the last couple of months has that really started to resonate with people, just how much has changed at the federal reserve under chair powell and vice chair clarida. tom: that is my first question to the vice

tom: when i go to london, i have no clue what is going on. jonathanhave no idea even when we are talking about the u.k.. you are often confusing me. tom: we will talk the designated hitter tomorrow. jonathan: coming up, glenn hubbard. you're off tomorrow, are you? tom: my people have not told me. jonathan: i was told you might be. futures up 30 points. an upgrade to 185. tom: maybe amazon stocks will come in. jonathan: i will take a phone from you tomorrow. that sounds good enough? jonathon: all-time highs on the s&p 500. your price action looks like this, 4200. we break through it. the session up .7%. the nasdaq up by one full percentage point. the numbers from big tag have been phenomenal, north of 50%. getting your head around that. let us talk about something different, execution risk. morgan stanley is a first bank to put it on the table. can you meet with supply? one of the issues and obstacles of the chip shortages, two different companies with different issues. apple talking about the revenue to the apple and mac business because they cannot g

jonathan: from new york this morning, good morning. alongside tomeene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. coming up, ben laidler, etoro global market strategist, joining us. your equity market down 17. we declined 0.4%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. dayand while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transf

tom: he got slammed. jonathanyed elevator music over the top of him and chairman powell did not respond. tom: that is accurate. what is fascinating as everybody is calling for higher inflation. jonathan: you see the research and you hear it on the corporate calls as well. this earnings season, microsoft later, apple tomorrow, amazon after that. the federal reserve with the decision. captivating coverage on tv and radio. tom keene and caroline hyde and scarlet fu making an appearance. looking forward to the coverage tomorrow afternoon. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. president biden will propose a large-scale tax increase tomorrow and also call for giving millions more to the irs to make sure the rich people and large corporations pay all they owe. bloomberg has learned the proposal will raise the top tax rate to 39.6% for those making at least $400,000. that is a key element in the american family plan he will unve

tom: i'm sipping. jonathan: are we playing a drinking game? aughter] tom: on radio, i am taking my third sip. lisa: just talk and drink at the same time on radio. tom: what is so important here about transitory, there's a bet made by the fed in this show made by the white house. jonathan: it is, and jared bernstein saying it will be transitory. i think that is a conversation in the white house we've got to have in the coming months. they want to shape the narrative because they still got some work to do. one of those big efforts is around the infrastructure bill. if you start to see a conversation about inflation run away from this transitory space and we start talking about something a little more sinister , i think it could harbor to spend more money at the treasury. anyway, i think it gets more difficult for them. the question i asked yesterday -- tom: no, not the big question. the question is in a bloody mary, do you lead with jen or vodka -- with gin or vodka? jonathan: i think with gin. i may gin kind of guy. when we spoke to the vice cha

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance, with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: good morning, this is bloomberg sport alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. tonka the what? -- tom: the what? the what? if it is not led lee, i just don't care. jon: talking about the european football league. tom: before we get to football and soccer, and we will do this for the global audience throughout the day. it's amazing what is going on with the rest of it, that you know far better than me and lisa. the most import research piece this morning was hsbc reaffirming lower yields. we have the opening of our show, which is the zeitgeist of inflation and higher rates, and the hong kong and shanghai bank is saying no way. no. jon: i'm absolutely shocked. if you want to go there, i absolutely can. is that what you're talking about? tom: that's what i would talk about. they are looking at the fears of inflation as a cynical project. that's what the telegraph and others have reported on european soccer. for our global audience -- we will do this through the day? -- you say that t

aimed at ensuring an open border jonathan tom who's a professor of british and irish politics thinks the government made a series of false promises to the people of northern ireland where the british government bonds johnson in particular after a considerable amount of responsibility it was parts johnson who went over to belfast it's only democratic party the largest party in northern ireland told the public party conference 3 years ago that it would be untold for any british government to preside over a border in the irish state forest johnson was attacking his previous us to treason may signing a deal within a year for his johnson we've done that and since then we spent a lot of time pretending that there is one between great britain and northern ireland so you just have more of the simple life you know the terrible sense of betrayal over what the prime minister has done i think that boris johnson needs to go to northern ireland explain what he's done in terms of of the protocol and try and also meet with the you leaders to mitigate some of the worst effects the protocol and dimini

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on tv, a simulcast. huge news flow. russian sanctions, we will get to that in a moment. right now, citigroup is out, and it is a strategy refresh. jonathan: is the headline. citi to exit retail banking in 13 markets across europe and asia. it is a strategy refresh from citigroup, and the new ceo james fraser to exit retail banking in 13 markets across asia and europe. in the numbers themselves, i know that headline caught your eye. tom: but as you mention, the retail shutdown across the world , what is so important to me is the efficiency ratio. jane fraser and her first time out, she's going to make very clear what the tone is on cost control. citigroup is a different bank from bank of america and j.p. morgan. lisa: although it is trying to consolidate some of its efforts, to your point. take a look at the premarket share price pop, up now 1.8%, so clearly a response to the beat, both with with specs across the board in earnings, but also to gett

alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us on monday.light decline for the s&p 500, pulling back from all-time highs. we spent this morning, the week talking about big beats. the big beats continue. lisa: i do wonder whether the rest of the people on wall street have the same attitude which is just get to the weekend. i know that is how you start every friday, but i wonder if that is the feeling. if there's a level of exhaustion, especially with the magnitude of beats and just the shrug, the fact that we are sort of range bound here, given the incredible numbers we have seen posted, particularly out of big tech. jonathan: a couple of weeks ago we had a higher-than-expected print. bond market rally. now we are seeing it in the equity market. tom: there's a -- lisa: there is a question embedded in some of the price action for this month. had the cyclical trade faded? has this idea of the rotation into small-cap stocks really faded, or is this just a sweet pause -- is this just a pause, a reset? we can see the russell 2000 is up less than 2