it is joseph lavorgna of goldman sachs -- it is joseph lavorgna.an sachs and others say we are going below 3%. do you agree with that, that the terminal value of our growth is under 3%? joseph: it doesn't have to be that way, but that seems to be the consensus. even in the biden budget, they are forecasting gdp at 1.9%. it does seem like the consensus of forecasters are shifting down to a sub 2% world. i would love to see 3%. it is possible we could get 3%. i'm not a testament of productivity growth. it is possible this crisis, this pandemic was an accelerant of productivity growth. we will find these new ways to exist that is long-term and could lead to higher productivity. what i can tell you in the short-term is the economy is booming this year and has a tremendous -- has had a tremendous amount of stimulus. that is why the equity market is so up. where it goes beyond will be a function of regulatory policy, fiscal policy, and as we get the right program in place, i don't see why growth can't be much faster than 2%. jon: i want to tease out a co

folks bring it back danielle dimartino booth, joseph lavorgna with us.ting sticky, not sticky, how long does it last? joe, yesterday i think it was jaguar saying their volume will be down 50% because of this persistent supply chip. doesn't that feed inflation fears that it is still persistent. >> i lost you charles, can you hear me? charles: i can hear you joe, can you hear me? >> yeah, got you. look the car market is heated up in large part because some of the carmakers last year did not expect the economy to have the v-shaped boom it has. job market is healthy. jobless claims come down. makes sense people have cars. limitations on where people could travel. that is slow to recover. i look at all of this, charles, a post-pandemic price level adjustment reflecting booming demand and eventually that production will come online. the price mechanickism is working but there is no other way to allocate resources other than higher prices. reflects demand. economy is doing well. i say 12 months from now if you can wait you will get a much better deal on your ca

i want to bring in former white house chief economist joseph lavorgna.oe, i'm not a economist, i'm in the transitory camp. forget about the debate, forget about what camp you're in, why is the debate about the duration of inflation so important when they're always sort of temporary anyway? >> sure. the issue, charles, for the better part of the last 20 years the fed has undershot its inflation target of 2%. unfortunately what's happened while they undershot on inflation as measured by traditional goods and services things like stocks, real estate, collectables, art, all those items gone up massively in price. in the old days with easy money it caused goods and services prices to go up a lot but now causes asset prices to go up a lot. your point become transitory, this inflation jump to this point in my opinion is still a post-pandemic price level adjustment that as the economy reopens more, more supply comes on line, more people return to the employment situation when benefits expire, the price increases will moderate, not reverse. charles: so to that po

i want to bring in former white house chief economist joseph lavorgna with us now.e decreasing. that is the formula how we get prices down. they always say higher prices are the ultimate cure for inflation, will that help? >> it will help, charles. new home sales figures i would say are the outlyer. if we look at existing home sales, housing starts, permits, we have a lot of building. existing numbers were very strong. we've seen record gains in home prices looking at the existing figures or s&p case-shiller. i will treat the new home sales as an outlyer. having said that i do believe inflation is transitory. however if i'm wrong on the story, charles, because wee pass potentially over $4 trillion of traditional stimulus over a economic backdrop that is still pretty healthy. charles: yeah. that is the ultimate wild card. before we get to that, this morning i thought this news out of goldman was very important, lowering their gdp numbers for the third and fourth quarter, the second half of next year. how much do you think can influence the federal reserve particularl