louis disagrees just flat out this agrees with joe live warn you. -- with joseph lavorgna. an: i imagine you don't mind that at all. you said no tightening, no tapering. you don't think we get a taper here at all? joseph: not until we know what the contours of the budget deal are, because the fed will treat the lack of a deal as being contractionary. even though we are in the midst of debating what happens on the infrastructure side, the bigger part of the package, we will not know what that looks like if we get it. it will likely lead to reconciliation until maybe mid-october, early november. i think the fed will sit and wait until things evolve, and it will be hard for the fed to taper in a slower growth environment, especially over the next few months, and then job growth slows as well. jonathan: this won't be lost on you. no tapering. the other call, no rate hike until after the next election. joseph: it sounds aggressive, but if you look at the last two cycles, the average time from the last rate cut was seven years. it is not that unusual the last couple of cycles. lis

joining me first, economist from the white house, joseph lavorgna.e talk about what expired in afghanistan, what is going on right now. obviously you were in the trump white house. you saw many emergencies. what do you think of the way it is all played out as president biden gets set to address the nation. >> it was very smart for president biden to address the nation which he will do imminently. there was talk yesterday it would be a few days. that would have been a mistake. really in these sort of events whatever your political backdrop or affiliation you really need to hear from the commander-in-chief. so i commend biden coming forward giving a speech soon, not waiting any longer that would be the worse recipe. waiting and things get out of control and you lose the narrative. you lose the ability to persuade people and tell them what they want to hear even if you don't know, that sometimes is okay. charles: right. joe, the year-over-year economic reports that came out of china overnight all came in below consensus. retail sales 8 1/2% from 12 1/2%