josh brown, yours is what? >> let's do kweb.as had a hell of a roundtrip, and it's no secret the entire chinese market is down 60% over the past two years. you cannot find somebody who will tell you they believe chinese stocks are investable. that is if you're talking about a big contrarian swing. this is probably the biggest swing you can take. the top ten holdings in kweb etf, baba, tencent, you nope the names, baidu, they're in all different sectors of the chinese economy. we're all familiar with government trackdowns against large tech platforms. the issues they've had reopening from covid. there's an icy relationship between china and the west. if you think this never can get better, the huge discount they're selling for is valid and should remain in place. however, if you think things are so bad there probably is room for improvement these stocks are too cheap to ignore. kweb is 72% below its all-time highs. it's had massive rallies. it could again. i'm not positioning myself as a geopolitical expert on u.s./china relation

joining me josh brown, joe terranova, stephanie link and jim lebenthal. we'll show you what the markets are doing. we are red across the board. there your losses. the nasdaq was in the green. not so much anymore. joe, i feel this is waller giveth, waller taketh away remember what he did to initiate things in october. maybe he's pouring cold water on all the cuts coming. he said, yeah, we can cut this year no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past. the timing and number of cuts will be driven by incoming data. yields went up a little bit, 4.04 on the ten year >> i wish we weren't in this place. there's been fundamental improvement from the fourth quarter in 2023 to where we are now, there should be more excitement, more of a risk on mentality. we're in a place we are debating whether or not we will have a march rate cut i think that's going to hang over the market in a way, in a mannerism that will be choppy price action i think that's been evidence the last week. unfortunately, we have to get past that with some really strong earnings.

josh brown, i will come over to you. what do you make of that slightly hotter than expected inflation report and yields going back above 4.0? >> i have said on the show i feel the big risk in the first half of this year is not things like commercial real estate or bank loans going bad or credit card defaults. i think the risk is the economy overheating and the stock market overheating, and this is one of those data points, unfortunately, that could potentially be another stair step in the wrong direction, quite frankly. so cpi up 3.4% year over year is an acceleration. granted it's an acceleration from 3.1%. a little bit splitting hairs but, again, directionally, it's not what we're looking for. the six-month annualized rate is 3.2% and in november it was 2.9%. we had these two really tame prints in july and august, and that is what set the market on fire leading up into that, and now the concern is were those the aberration? so i think it's too early to say. i still think when you're thinking about anything near 2.9 or

>> sabra health care. >> josh brown, do you have a final?i'm not in it, but goldman sachs looks like a breakout in progress. i think above $400 this thing goes crazy. >> what do you got? >> newcor, earnings looking good. >> can't wait to see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ >>> thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm dominic chu in for kelly evans. here's what's ahead. another day, another stronger consumer number. confidence hitting its highest level in more than three years, but the labor market is flashing caution signs. could that put the fed on pause? with the fomc meeting kicking oftoday, paul mccullough tells us when the rate cuts may be. and five of the magnificent seven stocks

josh brown is back to share how he is playing crowd strike and toast.e on -- both on the move today. all right, mike. this gets real starting tomorrow morning. >> it does. we are going into it to the market continues to color within the lines two weeks since the last approach to the all-time high. have not really given a lot back on the index level. i've been looking for stress points, things about market behavior that says okay, this is a little bit of a macro warning or it is a sign of urgent de-risking or selling. small caps have rolled over against the nasdaq 100 york it looks like maybe a burst of catch-up activity has more to prove. that being said, it's really tough to argue with how we are doing. will be exited 2023 out of 5% nominal gdp he pays. inflation is about 3%. that's okay. we expect earnings to be maybe 1% for the fourth quarter. it all seems like it's pretty much -- the burden of proof is on people who are saying things are bad at this point. mindful of the fact that overheated sentiment during a fourth quarter rally sometimes comes ho

the 10 year is at 4.14 or so josh brown, we get ready for mega cap earnings, the fed meeting. there is your ten year note. how should we be thinking about the week that was and the one that will be >> i think probably the big tail wind that sends us into next week and, of course, those earnings will be pivotal just mathematically, those stocks are really big they really move the market when they go up and down. the commentary that you'll hear out of those management teams will absolutely impact the way people are feeling about the outlook for other stocks that they own but we don't know what's coming out yet, so let's put that aside. i think the thing that's really going to send us into those reports with a decent tail wind is this core pce number. remember that the fed focuses more on this than they do on cpi. and now you've got basically a six month and a three-month annualized sub 2% inflation regime and that's like at this point i think that could clinch the rate cut cycle beginning. so right now the street is only assigning a 53% probability to the first cut happening in

many, many moves, josh brown we start with you we're looking at tech and you sold amd it's just been straight up since you bought it over the last few months so you're out. >> i actually put it on halloween and the stock is up, i think i was up like 87% in the name this is one of the biggest winners. i was lucky enough to be in it but i never owned a lot of it. it's not a core position, not enough to take a victory lap this is a stock up 81% i own nvidia in that same period of time up 51% and i have much more exposure there and i just don't want to own both i look at things like rsi when i make a decision of if a stock is too hot. amd hit 78 relative strength index. it's 33% above its 50-day moving average, 60% above its 200 day moving average when people come on the air and say. oh, it's overbought, what they mean is i missed it. what i need is technically it's overbought the stock has been itch up 61% of all trading days and average daily return of 1% is ludieudics and can't continue no mas for me. i have too much exposure they're 8% of the s&p 500. they are the same size nvidia is

josh brown hit 140 runs offjust 57 balls as brisbane heat reached the final of the big bash. brisbane will face the sydney sixers in wednesday's final. india's star batter virat kohli is going to miss the first two tests of their series against england. the former skipper has told the indian cricket board that �*certain personal situations demand his presence and undivided attention". the series starts in hyderabad on thursday, the bbc�*s chief cricket writer stephan shemilt is there for us an i asked him how damaging this is for the hosts. it's not just it's notjust the runs he has scored, nearly 9000 of them, and 29 test 100s, scored, nearly 9000 of them, and 29 test100s, if scored, nearly 9000 of them, and 29 test 100s, if stresses presence in that in that india side. virat kohli is their personification of indian cricket, everything he brings with the bat and in the field it's a massive blow for him to be missing for the first two tests against england. in glenn's task is still a huge one. no one has won a test series in this country since 2012, and if england are going t

josh brown, anastasha joining us, as is jroger altman. the market, joe, is rallying a little bit.l isgetting hit a bit. but nasdaq is coming back a little bit. >> nasdaq is coming back, s&p is coming back. what i have is, there's a technical formation, called "i missed it." that's what happened to me in merck. at the beginning of the year, i identified it as one of the names i wanted to own. and here it is $115. merck is going a lot higher. >> stephanie? >> just when prices look like they're falling below $3 a share, mcdonald's should be a beneficiary. i expect revenues to increase and accelerate this year. >> bryn? >> free cash yield, had a good last year at 14%. great trade for 2024. >> thank you. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ >>> thank you, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. stocks are falling again, with the nasdaq yet again the worst performer after its worst start to a year since 2016. is weak data the culprit? manufacturing activity did contract for the 14th straight month. job openings came in at the lowest level in three years. but the ri

joining me, josh brown, stephanie link, amy raskin, sarat, sethi. the nasdaq turning positive. buying of mega caps other than apple. we'll get to that, too. you know what the setup is. i have many to get through. josh, you wrote a piece not that long ago, end of year, pfizer and how it was a colossal disappointment, enough of one you decided to buy it. tell us why. >> one of the things i have tried to do on the show over the years is make the point fundamentals tell you what to buy, but technicals are helpful in trying to figure out when you should buy it or maybe even walk away from it. i think in pfizer's case, it's a technical reason to get in now, but the fundamental backdrop is reason enough to want to be an investor here. pfizer dropped 44%. it's no secret, it was one of the worst performers in the s&p. lost half its market cap and that's with the whole market going higher. they bet way too big on vaccines and boosters. demand vanished and they weren't ready with the next next thing. they made a huge acquisition, that closed. that will start to bring in new revenue. they

i want you to listen to what josh brown told me earlier today on the halftime report about selling amd. a stock he only got into around halloween, but it has gone crazy since then. he sold it. here's what he said and then i want your take on the other side. >> this is a stock that is up 81%. it hit 78 relative strength index. it is 33% above its 50 day moving average. it is 60% above its 200 day moving average. >> what you do with that? >> specifically on amd, i think you are seeing them move into of pairing were they will take a tremendous amount of market share in the gpu business, specifically at the network level but not for gaming. that's a big opportunity for the company and i think looking at a stock on what it has done over the past hundred days or 200 days or whatever the timeframe you want to pick is a very limited way of doing stock analysis. if you want to think about the future and where the stock is going to go in the future, you need to look ahead. you need to look ahead to what the future fundamentals are and what you are paying. while amd might look expensive today, th

josh brown will be with me with liz young.last hour of trading and run you right up to the end of business today. we look at cpi and earnings front and center. brian, thanks for being here. what's your final trade? >> it's not a financial, ha, ha, ha. i'm going to go with the google machine. the stock has underperformed, so i think we'll see massive rotation. >> karen? >> i'll give you adobe. the stock has been in a bit of a pause. we think it's going to have a good year. >> shannon? >> commodities ahead against geopolitical risks as well as potential growth in china. >> joe, what's your final trade? >> hedge against geopolitical risk, cyber. palo alto networks, ready to make another new all-time high. >> there was another positive call on that today. it seems like every day the street is weighing in. thank you, guys. see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. hi, everyone. i'm kelly evans. this is "the exchange." we begin this hour with the big story since friday, when a door plug on a 737 max 9 operated by alaska airl

joining me is liz young, josh brown, kari firestone and bill baruch bill, these are some of your largest positions, and names we've focused on a lot there's so much happening in the space, so much change and a lot of nuance. how are you playing the space? educate investors that might be new to what's happening in the chips space, maybe particularly with ai. >> they are large positions. everybody is looking for rotation we haven't been ready for that yet. i think there will be a real good stretch here. what we've seen is gpus being brought to the consumer recently, we're seeing gaming start to take off. the hyper scalers like apple and microsoft and alphabet are monetizing ai which means they'll demand more gpus, more money coming to the amd and nvidia they will meet expectations, probably exceed expectations the stocks are not -- nvidia especially -- is not an expensive stock right now. >> taiwan semi reported. the ceo expects 2024 to be a healthy growth year. strong demand for the three nanometer technologies. josh, you are looking at amd and nvidia. >> taiwan semi is one of the most im

let's ask josh brown he's wealth management ceo and a cnbc contributor he's with me here at post nine it's good to see you welcome back you think that's the case? we got all build bulled up because of the way we ended 2023, hey thi might be smooth sailing, but not so much? >> let me ask you a question with a question. do you think the market goes u because people get bulled up >> move the ladder >> why wouldn't investors be bulled up? did you see the way the market ended last year? it literally ended like th 4th of july. it was picnics watermelon and fireworks it was just smashed almost t zero everything went up and of course people got bulle up, which is quite all right i would think there is something wrong if we had s&p finish the year up 25%, nasdaq up 50%, an nobody was bullish that would be problematic. >> yes, it is one thing to get all bulled up on july 4 an another thing to be bulled up in march because you're waiting for the fireworks that might not g off yet. it is what jamie dimon was talking about. so i want you to listen to wha he said about this idea an maybe that is to

joining me for the hour josh brown, liz young, joe terranova, and steve weiss. check the markets, we are mostly lower. the dow has turned green, though. the vix up, the yield's up, oil up, some of last year's biggest winners are today's biggest losers. guys, i'm talking the likes of nvidia up better than 200% last year, down today. meta up huge. royal caribbean, uber, carnival, amd, pulte, palo alto, for example, all lower. i feel like, weiss, we come into this year, the big question is whether it's time to trim across the board after this massive run that we had from november. kcramer this morning said crippe across the board. there has to be some discipline. on the mega caps, maybe it's time to cool. the multiples are out of whack. i see you've trimmed both meta and microsoft. >> i have. look, my views on those particular equities have not changed at all. the position has gotten large. they were over 40% of the portfolio because of the growth. while i would never get that large in names that don't have the underlying fundamentals and don't have the core values

you will continue to see him here joining me now, wealth management josh brown, we will get a quick comment for-- from you after we break. >> i think jeff came on in november and was enthusiastic. the only thing that has really changed from then until now is we had one of the best three month periods in the history of the stock market. we did plus 19%. quite frankly, we have done that less than 20 times the last hundred years. the problem with the recession case is that on 16 of those 17 occasions, not only did you not have stocks lowered, but you had no recession. in fact, the market was up an average of 30% one year later. i would have to hear the case for why this time will be different. if you think we have this $5 trillion rally in the stock market over the course of 90 days, over absolutely nothing, that is a really interesting story. that says to me, everyone is wrong and the last people still calling for a recession are right. they might be. there is very little evidence. everyone is working, people's bills are being paid, the market seems fine, the economy seems fine. i think if we

thaand josh, is once >> and josh, your beard is once again as well. again fully brown as well. >> didjust for you. >> i know, mm- >> i know, and the hair. >> i know, and the hair. >> and gradually it fades away. yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. >> so that's excellent. >> so that's excellent. >> distinct >> there's a very distinct palette together next >> we'll do it together next time.would really appreciate that. yeah. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> yes, yes can picture you >> yeah. >> �*lurking can picture you >> yeah. >> �*lurking over| picture you >> yeah. >> �*lurking over my ture you >> yeah. >> �*lurking over my shoulder in just lurking over my shoulder in the mirror. >> anyway , let's have look at >> anyway, let's have a look at the pages. uh, the daily the front pages. uh, the daily mail . i will the front pages. uh, the daily mail. i will defy you . judges on mail. i will defy you. judges on rwanda flights and pictured the queen and harry there as well. unusual telegraph. tory deputy chairman to rebel over rwanda plan and donald trump carrying some pizzas. guardian defiant houthis attack ca

brown -- who is paralyzed from the chest down. i was wondering your response and within the department? also, if you feel you face a different future than someone like joshul, longtime state department official who quit over biden administration policy -- but if you pay something different as a palestinian-american? >> absolutely. just to quickly touch on what happened in vermont, which is horrific, i think part of the problem is the constant dehumanization of palestinians. what we have seen both in the language the white house has used and in what we have seen in terms of coverage here across the united states in the media making it seem like palestinians, particularly palestinian men, are less deserving of support of humanity, of emotion -- that allows people to feel like attacking them is acceptable. that is a horrifying thing to realize that as a palestinian come as a palestinian man, as a palestinian christian, so may aspects of my own identity are erased on a daily basis. it is truly horrifying that we allow that type of dehumanization to exist in our country today. for me, it is very personal. yeah. amy: talk about your background, your family's b