>> the next question is from josh solomon, your line is now open .ulation in the northern down, what role does that play in the amo cycle . >> let me back up, there is an atlantic thermo healing circulation in the atlantic basin to a clockwise rotation and the changes in that circulation are associated with the multi-decayed all changes in the oscillation. they are part and parcel of the same thing, the deep ocean part of circulation. various studies indicate they may be changing, but what we've seen through the last several seasons is the atlantic ocean temperatures remaining warmer than average, the west african monsoons stronger than average and last year was a strong west african monsoon that help to really strengthen last year's season. so no, we are not out of the high act the error just yet . >> operator, next question? >> your line is open . >> hi jerry, this is stephanie, i don't know if you have more to say but did your modeling show you any changes in the level of rainfall? >> any changes in the level of rainfall? i just wanted to check th

our next question comes from josh solomon, tampa bay. your line is now open. >> dr. bell, i've heard that the circulation in the northern atlantic is starting to turn down. what role does that play in the a.m.o. cycle? >> let me back up for a little bit. there's what's called the atlantic thurmo hailing circulation. it's a deep ocean circulation in the atlantic basin. it's a clock-wise rotation and that -- the changes in that circulation are associated with these a.m.o. so they're part and parcel of the same thing. the thermo halean circulation. various studies are indicating that that may be changing. but what we've seen in the last -- you know, still through the last several seasons, is the atlantic ocean temperatures remaining warmer than average. the west african monsoon is remaining stronger than average. last year was a very strong west african monsoon. and helped to strengthen last year's season. we're not out of this high activity area yet. >> operator, next question, please. >> our next question comes from stephanie, standard & poors. your line is open. >> h