jp morgan analysts have it targeted for $126,000 by the end of the year.ts, normal people start to add this digital asset to their portfolios? karen: it is a more mainstream conversation, whether you see that is positive or negative, i will leave to you. it is about understanding, is this a case in which it is a viable returning long-term asset? or, is this a question of a true store of value? the areas of cryptocurrencies that have that role in technology is critical. our clients interested in this, then i would have to say yes. anna: it is interesting to think about the implications of companies on the s&p versa fine there cash pile -- diversifying their cash pile? we see them putting money into bitcoin. average investors in the s&p will have exposure to bitcoin. matt: imagine if apple did. anna: that would be a lot of cash. is this something investors will get exposure to, whether they want to are not? karen: if it has a role in a technological function in a company, then as an investor that would be positive. companies i am buying, i want to see they a

jp morgan, john norman is bullish all the way. we will talk about those energy markets in just a moment. this is the driver for jp morgan this morning. they are not fearful. they want more. annmarie: they certainly do. they are asking, what is the next force, quoting newton's law. the next force will be when the fed starts tapering bond buying. you have this momentum on monetary and fiscal policy. in the united states, with impeachment behind the biden administration, this just means we are back to that fiscal debate. i also have to say, numeral has an interesting piece out as well. they say season may heighten risk of short term pullback because it is february. be careful in the second half of february. manus: will get into the texas power outage throughout the show. the commodity super cycles debate is really quite interesting. julius baer was with me and they said, don't get sucked into the idea that this is all about china and iron ore's, this is about the housing market, the electric vehicle market. these commodities are, wha

i'm not sure i need to own this one now. >> wells fargo or jp morgan?lls fargo it gives me no joy to say that, by the way, and i think the best thing about it is the stagecoaches from when i was a young lad. if you just give them like a 1.3 multiple to tangible book, you're talking about a $43 stock, and i think it can probably get there to tim's point -- i don't know what dog purgatory is, not being a dog myself, but it sounds awful. i don't think the market is going to wait, to tim's point, and i think it probably continues to trade higher. 43 makes sense for a number of different reasons. >> i don't really know what dog purgatory -- i was trying to make a metaphor. not very successful there. danny thoughts >> i think they need an investment bank. we've heard this as part of an investment bank for a long time, and you hear about what they did last year, especially in the first half of the year when it was pretty challenging for commercial banks to me i just think they'll see some consolidation, and if i look at a money center bank like wells fargo tha

jp morgan has decided to call it a commodity super cycle. get into a conversation about this with dani burger, who is with us this morning. what are the market dynamics that would lead to a super cycle in law materials? dani: it is the supply and demand side. that is what we have heard jp morgan, goldman sachs argue for years long gains. we've seen that across the metals and all commodities sectors, everything on here from lumber to iron ore to platinum and oil and yes, some of those have idiosyncratic reasons why the supply might be under stress. there is the troubling freeze in texas that has led to higher oil prices. platinum has its own unique supply constraints and demands because of the environmental friendly push for the auto sector but this is kind of the point, that the supply chain is particularly fragile at the moment. there is trade dispute, congestion, which lead to an environment where we can have this big gain across the commodity space. anna: are investors buying into this narrative? what does positioning look like? is everyo

jp morgan acknowledges that. we recognize investor concerns around engagement in a post-trump world but we believe a small number of users were only on the platform to follow mr. trump. talk to me about your twitter play here. one month, down 4% three months, up 25.5%, pete >> yeah, this is a name that i've owned for quite a few months and part of the reason i owned it was going into the elections. and that was like three or four months going into those elections that i felt like, you know, the atmosphere that we're in right now at that point in time was going to be favorable for some of the social media specifically i think because of the engagement levels with twitter and obviously, i love instagram because of facebook. i own facebook stock as well but i do think that they are, even though they get compared to each other oftentimes, i think twitter is its own animal and they're in a very sweet spot right now and like jp morgan diagnosed on this whole thing too, i think there's a lot more to twitter going forwar

. >> jp morgan chaste accused of manipulating energy prices and driving up the electric bills of millionsrgy prices are low they would bid them up at night so in the morning the companies would find the prices artificially high, so they would have to buy the energy in the morning when it was very very expensive. >> in one days jp morgan duped california utilities into paying $999 per megawatt hour when the going rate buzz only $12. >> trevor: this shit is crazy. these guys were sitting around the table, i'm tired of abusing our power metaphorically, let's got it for real. the price of electricity went up from $12 to $1,000 per megawatt. even the amish said i don't know what electricity is but that shit is messed up! i hope the amish community doesn't come after me on twitter for that one. i would be less upset if you jumped and robbed me, at least it feels like you had to rob it. hedge fund people aren't ashamed. some even brag about it on the tv. >> jim cramer once made a fortune running a successful hedge fund. he went on to host his own tv show mad money that offers stock tips to inves

sophie: in that report jp morgan noting catalysts that will drive global growth this year. seen their global growth forecast boosted from 4.5% to 6% through the year and powerful policy and targeted covert responses improving corporate balance sheet and jp morgan sees the u.s. taking the baton in this race set to outperform china's v-shaped rebound. over stronger u.s. growth they do not foresee a temper tantrum with the fed tolerating higher interest growth and inflation along with other central banks. haidi: we are seeing a growing increasing on return to some kinds of normal seeing investors dumping defensive plays like health care. sophie: yes, your to date you have the hot rally in health care fizzling out, it is now the biggest laggard in asia. you have the health-care industry in asia set for a third straight monthly decline with the reopening and recovery trades taking paul position. -- taking pole position. trading higher versus earnings compared to 18 times for regional. stay-at-home plays an internet having a stellar run. globally risk assets are back invoke -- in

barclays and jp morgan are tethered to the house. they say there is little possibility of contagion. short sales are too small to sway the market. jp morgan says the pullback will likely be short-lived. another number. melvin capital lost 53% of its value in january. that is a punch out. annmarie: on the others of that, we just spoke about best earlier this morning. -- this earlier this morning. what happens next depends on who out of the hedge funds, retail investors, all the intermediaries, surrender first, and that the contagion depends on the strength of buy the dip conditioning. mark cudmore says it frankly. those who think recent volatility is a micro distraction are set for a rude awakening and we see it this morning in other markets. a rude awakening in the silver market. manus: be careful because in the silver market -- i am watching wall street bets on a minute by minute basis and they are saying that this propagation in twitter, that wall street bets are going after silver. it's the antithesis of who they are. the silver m

john, i saw a story earlier that was well read on the bloomberg, jp morgan's barometer says market is the most complacent it has been in decades. when growth is above trend, fiscal policy is on overdrive and markets tend to exhibit the financial variants of newton's law. they stay in motion until acted upon by another force. john, for the time being, do you want to stick with this reflation trade? john: first and foremost, to be clear, much as we read john norman's thesis, it is worth reflecting on where we are in regards to reflation. some of the comments that have been going around the street, including his of late have been warming up to this idea of reflation. back in november, we released our long-term capital market assumptions, we noticed it was not necessarily moving up that much. we are seeing that. the risks of reflation are widening out. we have seen that come through. of course, those have risen to six year highs. certainly, the idea that there is upside with reflation is certainly being prized. the big thing to take away is about cyclical recovery. one thing i entirely ag

while some reddit users say driving silver higher will cripple banks like jp morgan, others claim thist is secretly coordinated by big wall street firms because it would help the banks. and i believe this. of course wall street will do that. wall street doesn't try to stop a scam, it joins in. if wall street caught you robberring your mom, it would be like, hey! hold her legs down so i can get in her sure, she sometimes has coins in there. one of our correspondents has a pitch for where it should go next. >> are you a redditer looking to stick it to the hedge funds. forget for game stop and silver. you've got to invest in kiwi. kiwis are the investment opportunity that wall street doesn't want you to know about. they're portable, they hold their intrinsic value and it's easy to think you're ordering ten from amazon and miraculously wind up with ten crates. here's the fact, as far as we know, every single hedge fund is shorting kiwis. are we going to let them do that to america's national fruit? i don't think so. if we all buy kiwis, then -- rocket ship! and kiwis are more than an inves

jp morgan call on bitcoin's $146,000. call was predicated on the idea bitcoin would trade like gold. do you think you will go there and be treated the same way gold has been treated? antoni: i think bitcoin is a better version of gold. it has the necessary characteristics. scarcity, a finite amount with elon musk taking us. there is a bunch of gold on mars. we might see inflationary pressures on gold. i think bitcoin is actually a better version because next time you travel to europe, try bringing $1 million in gold versus the same amount in bitcoin. it is much better in so many ways. i think we are going to see outflows from gold into crypto. it is a totally new asset class like we have never seen before and it is here to stay. matt: i will push back a little bit against that. i was thinking the other day when this arctic frost came down from the great concavity and shut down texas, you would rather have golden bitcoin. especially if the cell phone network goes down. you will not be able to buy anything with your ones an

francine: thank you so much, thushka maharaj there from jp morgan stays with us. what does 2021 hold for one of the world's biggest aluminum producers? we speak with the company's chief financial officer next. francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash, here's leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: hi, francine. uber think they can come back faster than other modes of transport when the roads open up again after the pandemic. achieving the possibility that tends on when that reopening will happen. hoover's food delivery business is growing, but it is not yet taking up or a decline in ridership. >> our delivery business continues to accelerate, so it does feel like the pandemic has generally caused a perfect storm, where people are home, but it has also shifted behavior in some kind of permanent weight. so far, we are seeing delivery habits now continue to grow at very high rates. leigh-ann: and disney is posting a surprise profit for the qua

that's the reason jp morgan and elsewhere are talking up the financials. finish on the fx market.a story we've had over the last 12 months. dear remember -- do you remember people talking up europe? i was part of that conversation. it's what people expect it to happen in the summer of last year. it didn't. one thing that went with that story was the idea that the dollar would underperform, and it would be that classic trade, short the dollar. so many were positioned for it, but here we are. a break of $1.20 on the euro-dollar. we come in 0.4%. a consensus trade is breaking down, not just because of the vaccine rollout. the data in america is picking up fast. here's romaine bostick. romaine: alibaba back in the news, getting a report out of reuters that there's more consensus on what will happen with ant financial, perhaps setting the stage for ant group to go public. a report yesterday saying chinese regulators had finally come to some consensus as well. paypal reporting earnings here. they really just knocked it out of the park. you're seeing a lot of the other fintech's rally th

in this report came out last week, a no put up by jp morgan and the price went to 100 riyals and theyad positive words to describe this moment. they said to consensus price target as they see it from bloomberg analyst has been surprisingly muted despite better-than-expected numbers that the bank presented for 2020, and when looking at valuation, they say there might be a premium there, but it is worth it because of high-growth. it is estimated to grow around 8% compound rate annually, and then they also highlighted how solid the market growth could be and also the potential gains on additional payments. it does a quite good position for the bank. manus: let's stick with the saudi seen, because in rio they ensure a settlement that aipac's claim of the government. is that enough to use the stock today? >> it could be. you know the sediment also with the voting tax claims with the saudi authority. the value is around 120 million riyals, and the company said it is not expecting materials, but if we look at the shares separately they were down 0.8%, and they are so for close to 3%, and thi

there is a question, and as a former jp morgan executive yourself, there is a question of how importantinancial base is to the city, especially as there are reports of jobs leaving the city because of the high tax rates and going to florida, among other places. how big of a concern is this for you as you pledge to do things like universal childcare, things that cost money? art: it is definitely a concern. you never like to see the city you love lose jobs, but the fact is the largest companies in the city had a declining share of employment over the past 10 years. what we have seen is the small business sector has amounted to 50% of employment pre-cobit and that was growing. 100% of the growth in employment in new york city came from the small business sector. considering new york city has a gdp in the top 13 of countries if we are treated as a separate country, there is significant financial wait here. it is not coming just from the financial sector, it is coming from other places. jp morgan and other financial companies, citi and goldman have been moving people to lower cost to restric

jp morgan is up 7.5%. unreal. kbw bank index, up almost 9% on the week. unreal. tom: did we see a bad rings you from a major visible company? i don't think so. we saw some that were moldy and soggy, but the earnings have been good, and we had this interest-rate shift. folks, this is a first principle could i know you don't hear it from business tv, stocks matter, but what really matters is the land of lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro and fixed income is talking. jonathan: the rates move, the bond markets, the spread between a bigger one on the yield curve. lisa: there is a question of how much this has to do with supply and growth, and whether people perhaps have gotten ahead of themselves. i'm sorry, i have to throw that in there. jonathan: don't think i did not notice you used the guest to cut me down. lisa:lisa: i was not cutting you down. it is worth a debate. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, alongside these abramowitz and tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa is always right. lisa: british sarcasm. jonathan: payrolls just around the

tom: jp morgan up 30 plus percent. a big postelection move. servetus subramanian from bank of america, and also the head of equity and quantitative strategy. i love how you put the limits on where we are in enthusiasm. we are buttressed up. how close are we? servetus: one of the ways that we gauge wall street sentiment is looking at where other strategists are in terms of bullishness. the average recommended allocation for stocks that wall street is recommending you put into your portfolio is higher than it has been in 10 years and is closer to a sell signal than it has been since 2007. what we are seeing our levels of dangerous optimism building around the s&p 500. not so much europe or emerging markets, but we are seeing bullishness concentrated in tech and the s&p. those are signs that you want to pull your deals on the s&p and look at other areas for the bang for your buck. jonathan: year in, 3800 socgen. bank of america, 3800. do you have a lot of people saying, when are you upping the price target? savita: tremendous pressure to get more

jp morgan seeing good support for bully on.re pricing in fed tightening in late 2023. the commodities price, oil prices styling as the rally may be overdone but citigroup says higher prices for crude are ahead, pricing and $70 per barrel for brent. >> the pen dramatic -- pandemic stricken holiday was great for mattel. people snapped up dolls and cars in holiday toy by. for perspective, we turn to the mattel ceo. thanks for joining us today. what drove those strong sales we saw in the past quarter and the past year? can you repeat it in 2021? >> this was an exceptional quarter for mattel for our -- with our best performance in years. for the second quarter in a row, we achieved double-digit sales growth, outpaced the industry in shares on a global basis. results exceeded expectations with the highest fourth-quarter growth in 15 years and an increase in profitability with an operating income that was to adapt times higher than last year. this is not just about the quarter or the year. it is about a multiyear strategy that is trac

head of equity strategy and global quantitative research at jp morgan. good to see you again. >> thanks for having me. >> you play right into this because sector buys are discretionary and financials value all the way. >> yes, there's been two big themes that we've been pushing even part of our, if you look at 2021 outlook we put in 4q of last year. two themes, one is reflation, a lot is a function of pent-up demand and more constrained supply story and the u.s. consumer we touched on in the report from last friday where we see a very, very powerful set-up for the u.s. consumer in terms of not just cash reserve but balance sheets and labor market if it continues to heal, more stimulus that continues to come our way and all of this as we're basically going into second quarter of this year which we think we'll see more proper reopening, at least domestically i think the set-up is quite attractive and should continue to help lift the equity market higher. >> what's in the market and what isn't? >> in terms of what's priced in? >> yeah! so t >> that's a toug

jp morgan reaffirming its doubts about bitcoin saying volatility must ease to prevent the rally from they say the current price load is unstable despite barreling to records and scaling ever higher peaks. tesla's bet as added to the bitcoin buzz but critics see a bus coming similar to the implosion of 2017. cathay pacific as an its numbers that make grim readings for shareholders. it averages just 981 people a day last month, its lowest figure since june. [indiscernible] cathay flew about 30,000 passengers, a sum of 99%. revenue as fallen 90%. rishaad: it is time for morning calls. [indiscernible] shifting for economic and earnings prospect in this part of the world. have they identified as a sweet spot? >> yes they two at credit suisse are -- thereby's in -- potentially credit suisse upgrading those markets to overweight eps momentum. indian trivia cyclical positioning where it the credit cycle and relatively cheap currency both the bode well for the country while australia is expected to be the top inflation beneficiary within asia pacific, and switching out the board, credit suiss

. >> reporter: republicans refer to a jp morgan report that most have not had a drop in revenue. a question of whether that state relief is needed in this package? >> our focus is not on jp morgan reports, but what local states and governments are telling us they need to ensure people in their districts, resources in their districts, the people who are making government function in their districts, have the resources and funding that they need. >> reporter: two questions. the first is, does the president support house democrats moving forward with the process of reconciliation? today there is reporting they're waiting for guidance from the white house. >> the president noted in his statement last night that he's grateful for the urgency and pace at which they're moving. as you know, this process can take a little bit of time, but he certainly supports them moving forward to move a package ahead. but, again, the process through, the mechanics through which they move is up to them. he's leaving it up to them. he believers there is still room for bipartisan support for this package,

jp morgan adding signature bank to its focus list. they say the company is well positioned to benefit from the increasing institutional and corporate adoption of crypto assets the stock is up 7% shares of haynes brands higher after a earnings and revenue beat saw earnings in the champion brand globally the stock up 24%. >> the sweat pants economy another big mover today is coty. those shares getting crushed down 15% the beauty company reporting weaker sales despite seeing more profitability and momentum in e-commerce and china i spoke with coty's new ceo. i asked her about where she's seeing the core business rebound from the covid slump >> what's rebounding at coaty -- this was probably a advise for a lot of us is our prestige fragrance business in general and fragrance business overall prestige fragrance is in a way -- i usually say with a smile that fragrances are the new lipstick index, if you may we have seen our fragrance business driving growth worldwide in every region of the world, in america, asia, also in europe our latest

jp morgan is said to be advising on the venture. we will be speaking to him later this morning.mberg business flash. anna: laura writes in london. the former european central bank president, mario draghi has stressed the need for unity after being sworn in as italy's new prime minister. he has unveiled the names of ministers joining his government including daniella franco as finance minister. raffaella tenconi is still with us. i wonder if you think mario draghi can bring a whatever it takes moment to italian politics. what would that look like? raffaella: to some extent he has done that already. if you look at his cabinet, he has mixed technocrats and politicians of the other major parties which is unheard of before. he has really created the conditions are different parties to try to give their best. the electorate is going to look at the next year and what each one has managed to receive in what are not ideal financial conditions. in some respect, he has already delivered a small miracle. the harder part is ahead. delivering genuine policy cooperation and implementation to t

jp morgan recommended going along with the five-year. 2% level, reversing the month's gains, and a goldman, they do not see a rise of more than 20 basis points from current levels, and they note that it would take a renewed widening of these rates pushing the u.s. 10-year back above 150. juliette: indonesian stocks falling along with the rupee. what will we see when markets open? sophie: india along with brazil and mexico have seen sharp treasury moves and we have indian bonds headed for the biggest monthly loss since august -- since august. the rupee is vulnerable as carry trades get paired back. rishaad: sophie kamaruddin, markets reporter. quick look at equity markets as we had for lunch break. red across the board. consumer stocks having a terrible time of it of late. that particular benchmark has declined something in the region of about 7% this week alone. look at the shanghai composite. down by four point 75%. -- 4.75%. bonds having a pummeling. yields on the way up. in fact high yields for u.s. treasuries. we are, i have to say,

morgan stanley, jp morgan, hsbc. the story was oil and gas. it is not just europeans.lips to name just a few -- conaco phillips have all named this goal. the pressure is on from investors and consumers. net zero in some industries has become a point of competition just like products and price. it is raising the bar really fast. last year's gold standard is this year's ok. what we expect is 2021 will be the year where new targets will not be celebrated but expected and companies will be questioned if they don't have them. the industry that will catch the bug is the mining sector. matt: we are showing the esg etf monthly net inflows chart and i have to say it looks a little publishes -- bubbalicious. argue not worried? -- are you not worried? >> esg etf is a sign that there is an excess demand for sustainable investment products. what you see from this chart is a huge amount of growth especially in 2020. our colleagues at bloomberg intelligence have counted a number of launching's into play 20 alone. there is no proper regulation or standards around what qualifies for th

if you look at commodities, you get to this picture for jp morgan says we are entering a super cycleou have some idiosyncratic stories, flattening trading at its highest in nearly six years, same with oil. on the demand side, same story, growth coming back. that is where we get a cycle or the start to rally for years to come. what seems to perhaps have gotten a bit of a bid is bitcoin but a plea look at the weekend, we saw bitcoin just nearly touched $50,000, and today, of course it is volatile, always, but people might be saying this may become the next inflationary but instead of gold, or maybe it is just people jumping on the bandwagon, trying to buy into the speculative rally. guy: it will be interesting. thank you. let's carry on the conversation. chris watling, longview strategists, joining us now. how much further we got to go do you think? chris: great question. i think the markets have all of the ingredients, lots of liquidity from all sorts of central banks from around the world. this is backed up by an fiscal stimulus, really huge economic boom, and if biden gets it -- h i

goldman sachs and jp morgan will underwrite the offering expected later this year.st said they raised $400 million at a valuation of almost $5 million in a funding round led by tpg. huawei is preparing to release a new foldable handset despite the westech ban that has cut -- despite the u.s. tech ban. it may be launched later monday, revitalizing huawei's ambitions in spite of its argument with washington. reports say the phone will use huawei's own 9000 chip set. also have china reportedly with a story of the top smartphone makers have taken a bid from chipmakers. in response to the global shortage of semi conductors. they suggest they want to resume chip reduction itself. mainland tech companies are looking at domestic chipmakers among tensions with the u.s. haslinda: still to come, protesters in myanmar are calling for their biggest mass rally yet after two demonstrators were shot dead. the latest on the escalation, just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ haslinda: protesters in myanmar calling for their biggest mass rally yet later today after two

joining us is the jp morgan global market strategist. good morning to you, hugh.e are looking at the treasury markets and asking what does that do to stocks? the fact we are seeing treasuries at these levels, or maybe the fact we are seeing treasury yields rise as fast as they are. is that is what is having a damaging effect on risk appetite? >> i think it is, but i actually think there are lots of reasons for encouragement, by way the markets have been behaving the past couple of weeks or so because if you had told me going back to the start of february we were going to be looking at roughly 830 basis point rise in 10 year real yields with u.s. treasury yields trading close have been this well behaved over the course of the month, most investors would have taken that. the reason for that is because bond yields are rising for good news. it is because conviction in the bounceback of the second half of this year is strengthening and the optimism, particularly around the size of the next fiscal stimulus package has strengthened over the past couple weeks as well. yes

jp morgan saying the complacency level and lack of worry now. when i was answering the reflation question, we have seen the fed -- we have a lot of reasons we think markets will drive higher. having said that, the level of complacency in the market right now is mind blowing. the one that worries me is the highest duration in the market. that means the riskiest points they have ever been. it would have huge impacts on the bond market and we could see extreme volatility somewhere down the track. the most immediate trigger that comes to mind is reflation and we are seeing signs of reflation. how one incorporates that into the investment style is incorporated with low balance sheet and companies that can go. kathleen: let's get to some of what you do you like -- asia is on your list. alibaba and tencent for the china side. steven: we can make sense of alibaba and tencent's valuations but there are a lot of fine ideas outside of those that are pretty well covered. the reason that company makes a lot of sense is the secondhand car market in china is u

jp morgan has a vector to lower and lower yields. what are the inflationistas have wrong? jens: we have liquidity at the short end of the curve. it is ironic what is going on. all the talk about use economy in the long and moving up, but the last several months, downward drift in the short end. this cycle is different from any other cycle. we did go into negative rates and in the u.s. release of liquidity coming from essentially technicalities about how the u.s. government managed -- now being released. it is a very interesting situation where we have concerns in the long end and opposite dynamic on the short end. it is certainly impacting markets, and the currency market is one of those. tom: how do you like dollar dynamics into what i presume will be a significant and rapid curve steepening? jens: i think when you look at essentially the relationship between what is going on in rates and what is going on in fx, we look essentially at a parallel shift in the curve, the whole curve moves higher, that is something that is powerful for fx dynamics. but at the moment, you hav

i'm more interested in how jp morgan adapts to the given price moves. francine: i think you're right, but u.s. need to understand whether it could touch wti. there's huge market repercussions, but less today, and whether it could happen in your. the rules -- in europe. the rules are different. >> as you were saying, silver has taken so -- center stage. it sent the mental stage over debate of reddit taking on bigger targets. a weekend buying bridge -- engine overwhelmed -- binge overwhelmed senators. president biden meets with republican senators. they're calling for $600 billion of spending, less than a third of what the president was asking for. in myanmar, a big setback for the country to democracy. the country detained the leader, voided the election victory, and declared state of emergency for a year. the army chief said he took the action in response to voter fraud. he said they will hold a free and fair election after the emergency is over. astrazeneca will deliver 5 million additional doses to the european union in the first quarter. dexter doses

street bank and now looking to disrupt the major wall street bank, how do you compete when you have jp morganr side spending more than $10 billion on technology? how do you carve a space for yourself in an atmosphere like that? brady: i think again when we look over the last 20 years we've seen industry after industry be impacted by the adoption of new technology. i think it is hard to underestimate the power of that technology. what we've done is build an absolutely state-of-the-art technology platform and push that into every part of our business. we know there's been a lot of verticals and fintech's that have made an impact in specific businesses. our belief is there is the potential for a platform to really do the same thing. our aspiration, think of goldman sachs or morgan stanley but on an amazon.com type technology platform. using the data to provide great services to customers. obviously the large existing great businesses and strong franchises, we think harvesting that technology -- harnessing that technology will be powerful. >> already there is an amazon and there are a lot of worr

jp morgan very much in focus, under concerned the d -- the boj has mixed months. if they can move to contain the pickup we see in the japanese yield. on the board and south korea, we are waiting for lines around the budget. the cost about .6 percent as we digest the latest flash numbers on trade. the first 20 days, export growth coming in 20% year on year. chip exports rising 27% and on that, we are watching lg can with rocio saying a possible battery partnership could be had with lj can on local media reporting it. so far this morning, we see chipmakers boost the cost higher . let's switch out the board -- all markets very much in focus as the national petroleum we kicking off and crude back above 59 barrels and brent above 63. aussie shares, we see some downside moves there. adding more than nine basis points after seeing a pickup inc. grow -- in global bond yields. keeping a close eye on the u.s. as we digest the latest moves -- the pboc holding on the weekend. kathleen: our next guest says we have likely reached some sort of emotional top in the market. joinin

. ♪ tom: this morning, consider jp morgan up 36% since november 6.he russell 2000, up 40% since november 6. it continues this morning. brent crude, $61 per barrel. there is new sterling strength. hospitalization data in america is better. vaccination, it is working. and there is a doctor in the senate, dr. cassidy of louisiana, votes for democrats. the second impeachment trial of president trump oh continue. good morning. i'm tom keene in new york and francine lacqua in london. does anyone in london care about any impeachment trial? francine: a lot of people have actually been watching it. i think it is the lockdown effect, people spend more time with her television set. it is quite exciting. i would not say the pageantry but there were missteps yesterday that got people entertained. and you just wonder

we talk more about jp morgan. ♪ francine: economics, finance, politics.oomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: bitcoin has made a fresh record of $47,000. tesla announcing a 1.5 billion dollar investment in the cryptocurrency and saying it will now accept the digital coin as payment. mike novogratz think more companies will follow suit and see bitcoin doubling by the end of 2021. double cut i thought bitcoin was going to be at 50,000 or 60,000, but things have been happening so much faster. the corporate adoption rate, the institutional adoption rate is accelerating the on what i thought, so i think bitcoin could end the year at $100,000. leigh-ann: mario draghi is on track to form a government in italy, having won support of leading political parties. talks are said to have gone well and he may announce his cabinet later this week. italy is facing a deep recession and the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. lawyers for former president donald trump

jp morgan leading those voices, saying they are not seeing any of the excessive leverage, momentum that would give them cause for concern based on their models. the big story, u.s. equities rallying on monday, led by the s&p 500 index. you can see very easily the outperformance in technology stocks. the philadelphia semiconductors index of about 4%, best day since november 5. part of the story here is the recap tech stocks. of course, we are waiting on both amazon and alphabet, the google parent company, to report earnings on tuesday. going into this earnings period, there was a big expectation that we would see outsized earnings growth from those make a cap tech stocks. the reddit story, the retail trader story, does not go away. gamestop down 30%. another reddit favorite, amc entertainment, basically flat. in terms of where those retail traders are turning their attention, wow what, what a story and silver. silver jumped to an almost eight year high, extending the surge. the most active users rose as much as 30% to as much as $30.35 an ounce. that is the new h pick for the keyboard wa

we're waiting on jp morgan, goldman sachs to open up shop there and own their 100% of their banks asely right, maria. you look at the top 50 banks in the world, the top five are chinese. there's 13 chinese banks on the top 50 list globally, only four american fdic banks on that list. one day the chinese are going to petition the fed and our regulators to come here and we're going to have to deal with that. but back to the question of public versus private banks. look what the government did with the ppp program. they used the private sector banks to distribute those monies. the sba couldn't do that as a government agency, distribute over $600 billion to small businesses. they used the banks because the banks have the infrastructure and the knowledge to do so efficiently. so, look, this is the greatest system ever created by man and womankind ever in the history of this earth and let's use it. let's use the greatest banking system that we have, maria. maria: all right alex, good to see you this morning. thank you so much. alex sanchez. we'll be right back. my retirement plan with voya

the idea of jp morgan up 32% from november 6, the russell 2000 up 40%est. liz and sanders joins us. walk me through how important it is to stick with it, stick with what is working at the moment? >> what is working changes on a week to week basis. there was so much attention on the most heavily shorted stocks in the gamestop saga, reading headlines this was some brand-new phenomena, the rise of retail traders and the dominance they are having goes back to last summer when you first started to see the increase in speculative activity and single stocks. it was concentrated in those leadership stocks at the time it the vaccine news into the energy stocks and the financials. probably for a variety of reasons, not the least of which social media driving a flash mob, it went into these arcane parts of the market. that attention is coming, differentiate between gambling and speculating on stocks or areas of the market with no underlying fundamentals and longer-term investment. tom: liz ann, i will bore you with the question i always asking because i think you are better than anyone in the

in terms of the commodity super cycle, jp morgan saying we think we will have another super cycle inoil. most analysts very bullish when it comes to proper. now we have platinum and a seven to eight year high. copper hitting eight year high. i will be talking about that later today on "commodities edge." guy: how you play it? what is the best way to get exposure. interesting talking to tobias levkovich earlier. he looks at the u.s. market and does not see that kind of exposure. you want to play the super cycle, that is not something you can do from an equity point of view in the united states. you guys have lots of energy plays but you do not have the miners. london could be a different story. alix: or is it a state of -- a straight up futures play? the real yield will be great. any time you roll the contract you will make friends. guy: you think the average investor, do you think most investors are going to be playing the real yield story? they'll be looking for ways to play this, the most obvious way is through the miners. alix: project lead those that have copper. i think my role

even jp morgan thinks it will hit six digits. >> john maynard keynes once said the market can remaincal longer than you and i can remain solvent. >> the question is, will bitcoin continue to shoot for the heavens or, crashing back down to earth? annmarie: a look at the future of bitcoin after the cryptocurrency jumped above $40,000 over the weekend. this morning, we traded 39,119. coming up, european bank shares gained for five straight days. it is the longest rally in more than a year. what is in store this week as earnings season continues? that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ annmarie: 6:42 in the city of london. i am annmarie hordern. alongside manus cranny in dubai. earnings season is wrapping up this week. on thursday, it is the turn of unicredit, commerzbank. on friday, we will be watching out for the dutch lender ing. next week, credit suisse and barclays. the following week sees numbers from hsbc and standard chartered. joining us now is the head of think research at city. great to have you this morning. how would you rate european bank earnings so far in absolute

yousef: one of the latest, jp morgan writes about the possibility of new signs of tighter liquidity policiesn the emerging markets space and any indication of that could lead to a broader correction of valuation across em debt. outside dollar-yuan, what is appealing? where could we see stability in local monetary policy that would make a recommendation worthy? >> i think generally, most central banks in the region are going to stay on hold in the near term for the next couple months. the exception may be somewhere like india where i think the bias is to be easier policy settings. as you mentioned at the top of the report, the are b.i. doing more to support the local bond market in the upcoming financial year. given the recent selloff in indian bonds, that may be something that is looked at but in general i think we will be in for a period of stability in terms of monetary policy settings across the region. central banks i think are going to generally fight against tightening in financial conditions as we are still kind of in many respects fairly early on in terms of the recovery process in a

jp morgan head of oil and gas research. not much to talk about. final numbers here in europe.ts are now closed. mixed session. i am struggling to take anything away directionally. more coverage at the top of the hour on bloomberg radio. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: this is "bloomberg markets." coming up, an interview with brendan kennedy. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: the records continue to fall. junk bond yields below 4% in the united states for the first time ever. let's talk about the search for yields. sonali: if you take a look, it is very cheap to tissue debt right now. you have investors clamoring for more debt. they are asking bankers to go to companies and ask them to issue more debt, even below 4% here because it is so hard to find yields right now. what does that look like? when we look at issuance for the year for high-yield debt, we are seeing a real surge. we have $69 billion worth of high-yield debt issued for yesterday. that is a significant amount. it might be enough to raise the debt capital market -- the debt of the major banks. when you look at high-yield and

jp morgan flirting with the idea, at least flirting with the idea of seeing triple digit crude again.: by the time we get you to the real ye -- real yield on friday, you might have -- jonathan: to be clear, you said a couple things about this, so far this year. i remember when you said, are we going to say $3900 soon? i'm happy to concede. and then we got there. you mentioned a 10 year. it has happened really quickly. 1.30, just like that. lisa: entry point? a triple leveraged cash fund? tom: i'm thinking $80 on oil. let's do this. thank you so much for the comments that we have seen on the roubini interview. michael mcglone joins us from bloomberg intelligence. a great savvy derivatives option guy is going nouriel is nuts. discuss that divide between people pro bitcoin and someone is educated and articulate as professor roubini saying you are nuts. michael: i think it is a difference between someone like jon, someone who was a traitor and academic -- trader and academic. it is already priced in from an economist standpoint. he is missing a key thing about bitcoin, and that is it is n

jp morgan i think it was two summers ago. tom: a wall of money. jonathan: nowhere to go. tom: a cash spiral to deflation. jonathan: lisa, do we have a debt shortage? lisa: this is the question. it is a structural issue. the u.s. government is doing a number of aspects that are technically leading to a demand for a place to put cash. this is the backdrop of an economy that is not recovering as quickly as people would like. it: 30 a.m. we have u.s. initial jobless claims. the are expected to come in a little bit. 750,000 new jobless claims we are expecting to get. why this is such a big problem, job creation is not nearly fast enough. 28,000 over the past three months versus one million at the end of october. it has stalled out. 10:00 a.m. we will possibly get some sign of the cure could be. president biden and vice president harris are meeting with senators on an infrastructure spending bill. what would be the main provision? how much support could they get for this? especially giving -- given how contentious the democratic party is with the current stimulus package. it wi

jonathan: philip to be around -- philip camporeale joins us now, jp morgan investment management.ow comfortable are you with sticking with it? philip: we stuck through the tumultuous parts of last year, especially going into the fourth quarter, and we stuck with it through last week. this is the signal through the noise. if 2020 taught us anything, it was that they committed -- it was to stay committed to the true signals rather than the noise. growth in 2021 is going to be better than 20/20, and that points to two trades. you mentioned a minute ago the russell 2000 is one of them. we had as much as 9% of our fund coming into january. you don't get fired for taking profits, so we took office on the russell in january. cut that to about 5%. but there is still the emerging equity trade. that is another procyclical trade, and we are doing that in a pretty unique way. we are doing it through china a-shares because the chinese domestic economy is becoming very popular, but also through our broader emerging-market economy tilt. small caps in emerging markets have been great year-to-date

jp morgan say we are in a new super cycle in commodities and 10 year yields reflect just that sort ofess in the cpi that cancer yesterday. will that endure? will we see a spike in inflation or regime change? let's begin the ceo conversations on bloomberg. it's our first earnings interview of the day with his concerns and they reported profit that beat estimates as the swiss insurer managed to limit losses in a year that the industry was hit a global pandemic and natural catastrophes. joining us now is the ceo of zurich insurance. great to have you with us as always. we look at the numbers. in terms of covid, last year, it cost you $852 million. you had the furlough, the lockdowns, and we are getting reopened now. do you think that covid losses could spike this year as we come out and economic reality hits? good morning. mario: good morning, first of all. let me say, we are very pleased with the results of the full year 2020. we had the great recovery in the second half of the year. we increased our profits in the second half of the year compared with 2019. covid in 2021 will be less o

we had people from jp morgan talking about international small caps. tom: lisa, should we mention that is washington's birthday? george washington was the greatest man in the world. lisa: ok, we can put that in. i did just want to make one note. you keep calling me gloom queen, but what you are talking about is an increase in real yields and not inflation expectation, the reason why people are concerned about this inflationary trends. that is exactly the point. tom: she won't let up. jonathan: did we ever call you gloom queen? [laughter] lisa: i don't know, have you? jonathan: maybe we should start. i just don't ever recall calling you that. gloom queen. tom: we've got to get a dose of this? jonathan: i think it is more than once at the moment. lisa: tom cottam -- tom, what are you drinking? jonathan: i want what tom is having come actually. coming up in the 8:00 hour, lisa thornbury of schroders. this is bloomberg. ritika: in new york with the -- karina: in new york with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. a study shows that the pfizer/biontech

jonathan: jp morgan is not moving down a move toward on hundred. conversation around a commodity super cycle is really taken off again. but we saw last time was not disciplined on the energy side and mining side as well. what we've seen the last five years has been a lot of discipline. does the discipline stick? lisa: can i ray can? tom: -- break in? tom: i don't think we have a choice you're going to break in anyway. lisa: how much discipline can there be to maintain that when prices go up to $80 per barrel? jonathan: we will see. coming up next, johns hopkins associate professor of emergency medicine. we have two people on the show that just want to cut and all the time. s&p 500 down too. this is bloomberg. karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. the deep-freeze could key parts of texas in the dark for days. power supplies from texas and north dakota implemented rolling cuts for the second day in a row. the operator of the texas electric grid says a could be days before enough our plans are back up and running. tuesday night, outag