jp morgan is wrapping up there bullish position on alibaba, and others. k at this reconciliation of what chinese capitalism looks like. they calls for j.p. morgan on the invest ability of china into a zero covid policy are critically important. how important is their call? tom: there's now a growing sense that after prolonged crackdown in the tech sector, things are starting to improve. officials in china realized that sector is key for driving growth and jobs. you seen a softening on jobs in the younger generation. there is now an alignment on views. even if officials are not taking their feet off the pedal when it comes to scrutinizing the tech sector, the environment is becoming more positive. you have the president, xi jinping, holding a meeting where he talked about where the tech sector can better align with the economy which many read as a positive symbol. focusing on what is happened, he seen 11 straight months, as a record since the market of the 90's. -- 1990's. the commodity structure and that demand going forward. dani: what other measures does

banks such as jp morgan, morgan stanley and goldman sachs, could handle a severe recession.u.k., consumer confidence dropped to a record low this month. rising prices, a squeeze on incomes and disruptions from strikes took a toll on the national mood. its measure of sentiment fell to 41 in june, the lowest reading in the 48-your survey. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am rich cowen group top. this is bloomberg. -- i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is unconditional, our commitment. the reason is that we need to, in a particular situation, we have a labor market that is unsustainably hot. we are very far from over inflation target. we really need to restore price stability and get information back under 2% because without that, wound not have a sustained period of maximum employment. tom: jerome powell on his unconditional focus at 10:00 a.m. this morning, the university of michigan survey on inflation expectations. it is not a boring friday. that is a k

the interesting conflict here is within dimon's own ranks at jp morgan.s view is the opposite of one of his top market analysts. in a note to clients, marco who heads up their research department, said despite the market sell-off, he still thinks the market will be recovered by the end of the year implying that the worst is behind us. so willie, it just goes to show how varied all of the views are about where things are headed in the economy and the markets overall. >> and gas prices continue to go in the wrong direction. up to $4.72 a gallon on the national average. up 12 cents from a week ago. is there any sense that this could be blunted at least or are we headed up to $6 a gallon this summer? >> this is the problem. the problem right now is nobody is going to be gutsy enough to make a call enough that gasoline prices have peaked. the reason why is because this is summer driving season. at least here in the u.s. this is a time when there is a surge in demand for fuel. and right now there is no real, at least trend economic data that shows americans are

jp morgan describes a full point hike is a nontrivial risk.on sparks a rift with the eu laying out a plan to override the northern ireland protocol. interesting how bill street talked about italian the btp, it briefly touched 4%, the risk of fragmentation seems to be clearer every day unless the ecb asked. tom: bill street saying that is the thing that keeps him up at night, and whether we get more from the ecb in terms of clarification from christine lagarde. there was a move into sovereign debt in the last few hours. 10 years also with a move across the curve, yields coming down as investors way -- weight up how fast the federal reserve will go. jp morgan and goldman sachs presenting -- predicting 75 basis points. but choppiness in these bond markets. marginal relief across the equity markets. the dax is higher by .2%. the ftse 100 as well, up 14 points. we look ahead to the bank of england. we have the fed first, then the bank of england, at a time when we could be hiking in a recessionary environment in the u.k. banks and energy are up. te

that is the heart and soul of the jp morgan call.isa: which ends where we began, that tension bubbling up as we go towards a jp morgan call of $150 a barrel. tom: are we going to get a two year yield under 2%? it's starting to get my attention. kailey: bonds are starting to get your attention, seriously? i actually find it interesting, even after have the hawks and fed talking up hawkish nests, you have a rally in bonds, especially as people look out to the recessionary call in the near term, more so than people previously thought. tom: stay with us. kailey leinz is here for jonathan ferro. we on radio and television -- we 're on the radio and television. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: oil down 124. commodities generally giving it back. dollar resilient, 104.51 on the country dx. persistently weak yen. sterling, 122.47. pound sterling cannot get out of its way. lisa has an individual stock story. lisa: they are all down. today is a gloomy wednesday. today is a new day when it comes to the relationship of oil to the deflationary backdrop.

let's focus on why jp morgan has made the change.oking at the university of michigan survey we had a few days ago showing americans' expectations for inflation are rising. there are calls out there for a 100 basis points move. jp morgan not calling for that. the chief u.s. economist says it is a nontrivial risk. we see similar moves in the markets as well. traders pricing for 200 basis points of moves over the next three meetings, 75 basis point hikes twice and one half point move. the high inflation print putting this narrative of peak inflation, peak hawkishn ess. haidi: shery: peak yen weakness. one bank says it looks undervalued against the dollar. annabelle: this is an interesting call because we have seen this extreme weakness in the dollar yen but they say it is not at fair value. they are looking instead at the push higher we are seeing in treasury yields. the fair value for the yen against the dollar should be 13618. the reason we are not at that level according to credit agricole. they say it is due to the verbal interventi

jp morgan is still holding back.re are people calling for a 100 basis point move, but they are calling that a nontrivial risk. we're seeing that reflected in the money markets. traders are seeing 200 basis points of hikes over the next three meetings, that's 275 basis point moves and one half point hike. yvonne, that whole narrative around peak inflation, peak hawkish in his, peak fed, it would seem as though it's ended. yvonne: we are not quite there yet, we just had a guest here this week. let's talk about the yen. there is a bit of a haven bit this morning. there is one bank out there saying they are looking undervalued against the dollar. >> a bit of a haven, it is the best performing currency over the past four sessions. the credit agricole saying that the dollar-yen is looking undervalued. they are calling that because of the push higher we are seeing in treasury yield. they are saying the value for the yen is 136 18, that's one move up from 13262. this terminal chart you can see those moves off the 135 level f

jp morgan's jamie dimon once a investors to prepare for an economic hurricane ahead.e says that it is right down the road, brace yourself. manus: it is a more dire warning compared to his previous comments. a couple weeks ago, there were storm clouds hanging over. on the other hand, he remains positive on the economy and markets. we have to patch it -- take down the hatchet. where you think diamond, the king of wall street is on a dramatic tip? >> the article, we expect it will be transitory inflation -- were basically now we are seeing that battle with hiking rates and a slowing of the global economy. in that sense, what we are seeing is banishment from growth. if that is the target, 3.5%, i think it can be more given or inflation is. -- given where inflation is. dani: does it then make sense that storm clouds are on the horizon? does that factor in right now? saed: i do not think so. i think you have to look at two things. we are looking carefully at the impact, the lockdown in china, european sanctions on russia as well as the oil embargo from russia. val has an im

jp morgan is laying off hundreds of staff in their home lending unit.lf joins us for the details, what does this tell us, the case of jp morgan about what is happening in the housing market? is this a one-off or are we seeing this more broadly now? >> it is that real-world effect. you have seen interest rates rise and this is the real business impact. jp morgan is an enormous lender particularly in mortgages, and it has cut off i thousand jobs from its mortgage business. it has reallocated about half. tom: prices are going down, is there variants in how lenders are adjusting this, how long do we expect this to continue at how is it tied to the fed? >> it is tied to the wider economy as well. there has been a very hot housing market. some of this is a natural cooling-off. it was interesting to hear those powell comments, doesn't sound like it will be a short-term fix in any sense. this might be the start of painful announcements from other lenders. tom: how many other places are starting to pull back? >> the other big one is wells fargo, they have done s

jp morgan does a lot of fancy work, a lot of math and a lot of algebra and they are looking for higher oil prices. jonathan: their chief equity strategists is still very polish -- bullish. that's a heavy lift on the back half of 2022. tom: it's wonderful to see that division at any major bank in its always part of the debate and its healthy. it's been said the recession going was wrong. they are adamant off of that economic data, the ism data. it's not that bad stuff jonathan: job openings came in pretty high let's talk about crude oil, down more than 6%. we might get more output from riyadh and the president might make a trip to saudi arabia shortly. lisa: he will be going on a nato tour later this month and it might include a stop in saudi arabia to increase production. they are talking about how saudi arabia may consider increasing production in response to a decline in out from russia. how much does this matter? i think this is one of the key issues. how do you translate that into lower prices at the pump ahead of the return? jonathan: how do you reconcile your foreign policy goals

out crypto space in the same way that the original jp morgan did in 1907.ays the crypto world requires him to help others troubled in the industry, even if it is a loss to his current firms. there has been a collapse of terry ust, luna, other crypto related banks and funds that have taken huge losses here. that has accelerated selling. >> su keenan in new york, let's get to the arkham movers in the stocks we are watching -- market movers and the stocks we are watching. one of the eb makers on an absolute care right now -- ev makers on an absolute tear now. >> local eb makers capturing 85% of the market, li auto with its price target raising. checking on the aussie copper liners, mixed moves this morning we have a major copper mine in chile facing a strike. it could benefit the aussie minors from that. a quick check on malaysian chicken producers as well, see them surging this morning, will asia is removing price caps on chicken -- malaysia is moving -- removing price caps on chicken. kicking off the election with the weak yen and rishaad: the nikkei set it

if you months ago we talked to david of jp morgan private bank adhesive bonds are back. our bonds back? -- are bonds back? >> yes, it is elected fashion. where look best we are less scared -- in a selected fashion. we are highlighting the risks now. the fed and other central banks are waiting on a recession and the levels priced and are doing that. if you are less afraid of duration, we can start being more constructive on the bond market. the risk that recession introduces his credit risk so you have been very selective. but it does actually paid to be selective. there are high single digits, total returns, annual returns available if you are picking companies and bankruptcy in the next year. tom: it's if we are not in cash, if we need to be in the equity market, which sectors make the most sense? hugo: that is tricky, tom. we have been overweight in the energy sector the last couple of years, but in the last few weeks we have been trimming that because the level of demand destruction is coming through and accelerating. people talk about $120 oil but it is five dollar g

kailey: the likes of jp morgan already calling for peak pessimism earlier, saying that the second half looks better. recession pricing has been overdone. at the same time, you have peter oppenheimer at goldman sachs saying only a moderator session is priced in. the s&p needs to be lower by another 15 to 20%. but the earnings question is a good one because if the market is this pessimistic, does that leave room for upside surprises on earnings? could the earnings story reinforce all of that pessimism if we don't see margins holding? lisa: you know that i love gloom. the pop in the market is highlighting the fact that you could be looking in certain spots. yields up a little bit, priced down in bonds, but nothing extraordinary other than the foreign-exchange channel. tom: brent crude 116 gives us a little bit of a lift. greg anderson, steven gallo at bmo capital markets model out 138 yen and make clear it could go much weaker through 140 and even higher than that. speaking of great experience, megan horneman joins us now, director of portfolio strategy at verdence capital advisors. how h

jp morgan, goldman sachs, and others joining that.s suggesting 75 basis points is now not out of the realm of possibility. then of course the question around the terminal rate being 4%. that rapid repricing across the treasury market we saw yesterday with two year yields in particular in focus. the u.s. dollar very heavily bid as part of the risk on moves we have seen. it has softened today, down 0.1% but still near two decade highs. the u.s. two year, 337. it has been rapidly increasing, the yields. you have the 2-10 inversion as well. brent a key part of the inflation. the cpi print out friday. continue to watch oil. we will have the opec report out today. bitcoin, 22,800, paring the heavier losses of the session down 1.7%. market cap for crypto down broadly and concerns there could be more ruptures. dani: bitcoin coming back a bit. it does reflect what we are seeing in broader risk markets. asian stocks are still down but not as badly as they were. there you go, this is the asian markets for you down 1.4%. euro stock and s&p 500 fu

jp morgan encouraged by the fact that their macro outlook, unlike jp morgan's jamie dimon there, very interesting to see the contrast in views. amazon, up almost 1%. this as matt miller came back saying, i big tech. conocophillips and exxon, we have oil higher for another day. so, we see both of those oil companies hire. some of the lagging sectors, however, we are going to see most sectors are lacking. most of the sectors, only energy higher. even up by all that much given the strength for some of those oil names. communications services, tacked toward the top, then financials. this is ironic, but perhaps makes sense given jamie dimon's comment. down 2.5% as yields are going higher. typically that would help the bank. finally a couple of specialty sectors. we have some weakness here too. that you have the banks, but then food, beverage, and tobacco down, and the airlines. this is so interesting. down 4.4 percent. earlier the airlines had been searching higher. delta and southwest boosted the revenue and adjusted earnings at 2019 levels, but it comes at a cost. there are rising costs,

jay berry is the jp morgan head of on strategy and will be joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >>>> i think about friday's epi print as big or go moment. -- bigger boat moment. in jaws there is chief roadie, he's chumming and he realizes the shark is much bigger than he anticipated and he utters to his shipmates that they will need a bigger boat. friday's cpi print is the bigger boat moment and the fy markets are reacting the way they are because they think the fed will be forced to get more aggressive than they had expected. guy: great way of looking at it there. that was a little earlier on bloomberg television. answering our question of the day, our markets ready for 75? joining us mao is jay berry, head of u.s. dollar bond market strategy. let's talk about about 75 basis points. are we going to need a bigger boat? >> our thought process is maybe the boat moving for longer to avoid jaws. as the fed has guided us this week, 50 this week, 50 in july with more risk after that, the inflation data on friday shows the more persistent parts of the basket relate

bank of america is up 0.4%, jp morgan as well.n these banks reprise the value of their shares given their stocks are down so far year to date, and they still have billions of dollars of suspected share buybacks coming? tom: thank you so much. jan hatzius of goldman sachs research has been about acuity. we will look at his work. we will go to one number, your q4 number. they marched down gross domestic product from a sterling 1.3% to sub 1%. that gives you direction of the recession call. but at the same time, jan hatzius calls for a shallow recession. if we get a shallow recession, quantify what it will mean for jobs in america. how does the magnitude of recession work in the dynamics of unemployment? jan: let's be clear that we don't have a recession in our baseline forecast, we have significantly-below trend growth . but our best guess is that we will be below-trend. that rebalances the imbalance in the labor market. and it ultimately helps bring inflation back down. that said, there is a significant risk of recession that has g

>> i think the message is one where you're at an investor day for jp morgan and you've asked to assess a lot of different parts of your business, including the macro. jamie diamond back then said he saw storm clouds dissipating today we've returned to hurricanes and what not and it's hurricane season that has people concerned. the greek god of janice who was the two-headed got who saw backwards and forwards and what's he doing here, i think the context of the conversation is still very different. we're going to be conservative we're going to protect our balance sheet. during periods of difficulty, we are going to play it conservatively that's probably why financials, which traded down earlier in the day, there were comments from the wells fargo ceo about loan modification banks ultimately had a chance to get back off of those lows the headlines are easy to make because jamie diamond is someone we all listen to and he has his finger on the pulse of the economy and credit i think there was a context of understanding why these comments were made today. >> mike santoli made a very good poi

but we want to take care of customers here. >> here jp morgan saying hourly turnover worsened in q1,pping up from 56% to 62%. and it sounds as if mobility of the employee base may be increasing true >> well, so the numbers would tell you true. i would say that they are normalizing. i would say that we had an incredible run during covid. i think the challenges here is that we're comping off of a covid base remember, we were open and we were a great job to have during those times when a lot of other people were closed or we got that great resignation, right? >> right. >> i talked about the great application. i will tell you our applicant pools are back up to normal ranges and i think the competitive nature of the part-time employer right now, i have never seen it greater in 30 years. and, now, you are going to see some job switching as things settle down a little bit i still like our numbers they're as competitive with anybody in the industry, so i still think we're an incredible place to be. >> now, you and i both run businesses he's a tv guy. but i ran a couple companies but my take

dimon saying jp morgan is planning to be more conservative.ussian exports but this morning we have opec meeting and saudi arabia is ready to increase production ahead of the meeting as russian output may decrease. that's why you've got oil down this morning. brent down two and 3 quarters percent at 113, 115. the price at the pump, hitting daily record highs in every state. triple a reports national average of gasoline 4.71 a gallon. president biden says to expect the pain at the pump to continue. >> we can't take immediate action that i'm aware of to by back the price of gasoline back to $3 a gallon and we can't do that immediately with regard to food prices either. maria: today gasoline as high as $8 a gallon in los angeles and we are waiting on more economic data this morning. adp report is out along with jobless claims. 300,000 new private-sector jobs when we get the adp out and 210,000 claims for the week expected. we will bring you the data coming up live. markets are rallying. take a look at where we stand. dow industrials up 140 points,

jp morgan came out with this line. "china needs to increase purchases of russian crude by one million barrels a day. if that does not happen, brent crude could average $122 in the second quarter, peaking at $136 in june." that is painful. lisa: we talk about these corporate executives coming up with this question of we have no idea what is going on. how much availability -- how much visibility do we have with tankers trying to move under the radar? just to give you a sense of the uncertainty in the direction of oil price. jonathan: jamie dimon yesterday making this point. i think it is where the emphasis lies. what do you do if you think storm clouds are on the horizon? you brace. that was his point. tom: the corporations are going to adapt. i would really make a point here of the commodity move you mentioned, bloomberg commodity index, frankly better mass did not go out to a new high yesterday, but doug kass in florida notes crv, which is old-school, that does breakout to a new high. jonathan: equities breaking out li

banks such as jp morgan, morgan stanley, and goldman sachs could handle a recession. in the u.k. starting to crumble in the face of soaring prices. the government says the volume of goods sold in stores so 0.5% -- fell 0.5%,. another report says consumer confidence in the u.k. has led to a record low this month. europe's travel chaos is about to get worse just as the summer vacation period gets underway. canceling 3100 flights after a wave of coronavirus infections led to staffing shortages. chappell has rebounded dramatically in europe. that has projected the cancellations and lines lasting hours. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. >> i think powell is trying to finesse it. it is not clear for him what the terminal rate is right now. he has to continue to guide the market toward hawkishness. he cannot go wobbly on the resolution to tackle inflation. tom: greg staples, head of north american fixed-income. really important comments on fixed inc

to the positioning in treasury, we are seeing jp morgan's positioning.here has been a collapse by 11%. when you look at rates, when you look at the slow down and people not taking holidays, are you beginning to see the narrative which means that you can buy bonds as recession trade protection? antoine: good morning. a good day always to talk about interest rates in my opinion. the recession narrative taking over the market. this is when we saw that rally. in a sense, this is the right market reacting late. we are heading into very turbulent waters. the million-dollar question, do these do points finally behave and provide a balance to the portfolio when the economy slows down. we need to look at various metrics is. in the grand scheme of things, current yield level elevated. dani: to the question that manus mentioned, you pointed out that we have seen inflation expectations come down dramatically. you have also pointed out that volatility is very high in these inflation expectations. what does that tell you about the ability to have conviction in this ma

ing, pantheon, a jp morgan, td securities. just on and on.ll these banks looking for three handle. that's the pitch for chinese growth this year. it's changed in the material way. people are looking for something we haven't seen in a long time. >> you are going to have it -- half it to 3%. what is that mean for pacific rim starters pray that's why you see the imf and other institutions start to follow wto with sub 3% global growth. no one including michael has ever thought of. jonathan: a lot of people might consider that global economic recession. tom: there's no question. jonathan: the chief u.s. economist at jp morgan looking ahead to chairman powell tomorrow. pce data, a whole bunch of data this week. this is bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now, there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting

tom: the hyper analysis of microeconomics, different from jp morgan.focused on demand responsiveness on the pacific rim, that is the common feature of two different houses. lisa: there is a lot of distinction in each region. overall picture is a tight oil market. how much is what we are seeing right now a brief cooling in some of the fears of the tightness of the market before we reassert price up for a barrel of crude, especially as some people think there already is a recession baked into the price of oil? amrita: look. have the balances necessarily turned out to be exactly what we have forecast after the russian invasion? no. russian supplies are hitting the market, probably about one million barrels a day or more than what we expected. they are down about one million barrels a day. we have had the spr. at the same time, demand is coming in higher. the market is incredibly tight, despite some moving hot. underlying inventories are so low, bare capacity is so low, you only need a little bit of movement, such as libya going off-line a couple of days,

kelsey barrow joins us now with jp morgan. world of bronze -- bonds, in the 30 year fixed mortgage. >> if you look at the fed fund rate, it has risen 150 basis point point -- points. we have seen the impact on the housing market from that move. we will continue to see the housing market decline. what is important to note about this move, this move in financial conditions, is it has been so severe. in any other scenario, the fed would have paused. the reason they haven't this time is that the inflation environment is not letting them. what spooked them last week is that university of michigan. yeah. absolutely. he mentioned the university of michigan sentiment taking a. what we know about the sentiment data and the university, it is correlated to gasoline prices. some of that increase in gasoline prices is out of their control. they are putting themselves in a difficult situation, one they are saying they are going to prioritize inflation overgrowth. tom: oil has gone to 118 on rent. we barely had a pullback on oil. lisa: it is

haidi: jp morgan ceo jamie dimon warning of what he calls an economic hurricane to come.e a look at futures at the moment. not much of anything when it comes to s&p futures. pretty flat. we are expecting a bit of a jump in asia in the thursday session. we do have, of course, a lot of mortgage messages from corporate leaders, central banks, other big banks as well really wanting to amplify the alarm bells over inflation. let's bring in our next guest who says the base case for a recession is starting at the end of this year, and that is looking more likely. with us now, the head of global asset strategy at wells fargo investment. great to have you with us. it does really feel like a confluence of negative factors at the moment tilting. what is most worrying to you, and how are you changing your strategy to best prepare? >> we have been hearing a lot about the strong consumer and robust data coming out. we think more importantly, investors need to keep their eyes on the high-frequency data. that is rolling over fast. consumer purchasing power is weakening. we are seeing lay

the question here is how tough is this environment going to get, especially when jp morgan, jp morgan not lose their dividend for reason. they are anticipating higher capital requirements. that's worth looking into. alix: i was interested in what they said about preserving capital. i'm going to keep this here. it's uncertain. >> is that because they want to pile up money back into trading divisions? do you want to be making markets the big way when liquidity is spinning out? guy: there's nothing you don't have an answer for. alix: that's true. guy: right stuff. i want to come back to crypto today. that's the weekly show cohosted by matt miller and kailey leinz. up next, energy independence. how we could cap the price of russian crude. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. guy: of course the big topic at the g7 meeting, how leaders can wean their

it has spooked a lot of traders, including the likes of deutsche, goldman sachs, citigroup and jp morganmarket participants have been cutting back in the dead market. pockets of the market are essentially grinding to a halt, shery. the chief investment officer for global high yield at early-onset is saying that it is taking several weeks for them to exit out of liquid positions, an unusual situation. shery: yes, especially at a time when you are talking about spooked bond traders. when there is not a lot of certainty. we heard from chair powell and from christine lagarde and andrew bailey, all talking about the concerns of uncertainty surrounding inflation. also about the imperfections of existing economic models like the phillips curve, that led them to underestimate the supply-side shocks to prices. chair powell, saying the u.s. economy is well-positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy, but of course, markets are still very worried. they would have to reduce inflation to 2% while maintaining a solid labor market, which chair powell said he could do. he spoke with bloomberg's fran

tom: people that disagree with the jp morgan view.hey reaffirm the dynamics between russia and saudi, and that saudi will keep the powder dry, you get a risk toward greater than $150 a barrel. jonathan: 139 is the high of the year in march. try to convince people we have not seen the high on crude? 150 plus? tom: i want to make clear, this is not some throw a dart at the dartboard. jonathan: a lot of work on capacity has been done here. tom: it is about unforeseen events. christian walks through, if russia blinks, what does saudi arabia do? the usual ballet of opec. if we went to vienna, we would have better knowledge of this. jonathan: futures are up half of 1%. lisa: it is so nice. the fact that we are getting a lift, though, is notable, especially given that people are still seeing interest rates go higher. i cannot make much of these interest move because they will be different in a half-hour. it is all over the place these days. how much conviction can we really have? jonathan: when we look back at may, did it feel that we were f

manus: when you look at the narrative this morning from the lacks of jp morgan -- likes of jp morgan,hey say peak inflation will arrive in the second half of the year. translate that into the bond market for us. right now, as i said, the bond markets have been onto percent, the biggest ramp since 1982. where is the terminal rate if peak cognition is and peak inflation and peak angst arrive in the second half? jeffrey: i don't think we can get peacock cushion is into -- peak hawkish and us into we get peak inflation. cpi in the u.s. slowed, everyone thought that was peak hawkish ness. then we got may cpi and we were up. i think we need a couple of months were month-to-month change in core inflation needs to move down and then i think central bankers will use that within reason to pivot again. we saw the big pivot last fall to hiking and we will get another big pivot i think perhaps in q3. that would be with the near-term peak in treasury yields. i don't know exactly where the terminal rate is, maybe 325, 350. we are close to that in terms of where tens are priced as soon as we get a hi

tom: on a microeconomic basis jp morgan has a lot of great work. marita send has been great. we don't understand that when is a normal hydrocarbon market the supply and demand is wicked tight. that is cfa talk. jonathan: wicked tight. cfa boston, tom. without a doubt, 121 brent. crude higher by .9%. from new york -- they are doing better, tom. tom: they could not do worse. [laughter] jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. more problems for credit suisse. the lender has issued a sixth profit morning in seven quarters and expects a loss at the groupwide level and investment bank in the second quarter. bloomberg has learned credit suisse is considering job cuts. here in the u.k. bloomberg understands boris johnson will go ahead with legislation to override parts of the brexit deal. that risks inflaming tensions with members of his conservative party and the european union. the prime minister's government has been pushing to rewrite a northern ireland protocol that keeps the reg

shery: joyce chang, global research chair at jp morgan. always great to talk to you.lenty more to come on daybreak: asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ omaha! omaha! or you could use workday. omaha. the finance, hr and planning system used by over half of the fortune 500. for a be-agile-like-an-mvp world. workday. for a changing world. haidi: we are tracking the fallout of the global supply chain correction and here are our top stories. sources say the u.s. government is quietly encouraging shipping company to buy more russian fertilizer. the effort as part of a difficult negotiation involving u.n. to boost deliveries of for lies or and grain products from russia and ukraine that have been disrupted by the ongoing war. a leading edible oil maker is considering a third price increase this year due to soaring import cost. edible oil prices have been seen rocketing worldwide. an iron ore tumble on monday after china reimposed some covid restrictions and major cities fueling worries about demand and a smooth recovery. shery: take a look at how things are trading with oil reversing

clearly unnerving the participants in the stock index trading, fuel is rapidly falling into the fire, jp morgan added the day before that he was waiting for the fed to increase the key rate by a percentage immediately today and in the end release. i will remind the exchange rate today the dollar is 57 rubles. 9 kop. euro 59 24. and for now, that's all roman masha thanks, we continue. the russian chemical for paper bleaching was developed in the arkhangelsk region in terms of quality, it is not inferior to imported analogues, and soon it is planned to be supplied to other regions . taras kucherenko to paper turned white and is passed through several complex stages of purification processing technology. at this plant in the arkhangelsk region, they introduced it back in 2000 without using harmful to the environment. chlorine was the main reagent supplied from finland when the pellets were threatened by european sanctions to stop production. if we did not find a solution, we would have to significantly reduce the capacity up to the main production. and this is not a little, 40% of the productivity

anthony: this reminds me of the 1907 bank panic where jp morgan was forced to step in with his own funds rally all of those guys to fix the situation. that was pre-federal reserve, so no lender of last resort. we have been approached by three household names and wall street banks who are looking to leverage their expertise with the ones that are solvent to remedy the overall situation, and there are going to be a lot of consolidation processes that i unfortunately cannot comment on but this is where we are heading. ritika: let's get a quick check of the markets are the s&p 500 up .5%. it is a triple witching so do the gains sustain? already poised for a weekly loss. not a lot going on in the 10 year yield. the bloomberg dollar index still higher and stronger. take a look at the ripple effect, crude down almost 8%. growth fears seem to be showing up in commodities across the board. stick with us. bloomberg markets is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

subpoenaed jp morgan chase bank for bank transactions to do with hunter buying jim biden and two of hunter's business partners, devon archer and eric schwerin and specifically they are asked for anything to do with the bank of china now, i know from the laptop and from bob linsky's material, there's a lot of that chinese money sloshed through tens of millions of dollars, so they're getting that now there are one of the names on one of these suspicious activity reports from jp morgan chase that i've seen is a woman called zoe keston and she was an ex. i don't know if you'd call her a girlfriend but a woman who spent a long time with hunter at chateau mamong in hollywood when he went on one of his months long crack benders in 2018 after he got a big payout from china so she was there and she was in a lot of photographs and videos and so they had as he always had with all the women in his life of rocky relationship, but she is named on one of those suspicious suspicious activity reports because of quite a lot of money had gone into her bank account and she testified before the grand jury and ap

jp morgan in a couple others are saying we are seeing big inflation. will not go much higher from here. then you have others who are saying no, this is far from it, so to speak, and it's still trying to sell treasuries. at the moment it is 3.2% and we have seen it go higher. it is still stuck in a bit of a funk at the moment. and you know what? we're going to see some rebalancing flows. the picture might be clearer once we get over that hurdle. haidi: senior fx and rates reporter ruth carter. let's get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: a new paul has found support for japanese prime minister you kishida falling by nine percentage points in the past two weeks. the nhk survey has support for the government at 50%, down from 59% earlier in the month. more than 40% of respondents saw economic measures as a top concern heading into next month's opera house election. bloomberg has learned g7 leaders are set to instruct ministers to explore implementing a price cap on russian gas. sources the mandate me at the announced at the end of the

underweight at jp morgan you got a take on that >> we own chevron. we don't own nex on.it doesn't make sense to have it underweight. unusual activity. >>> unusual. what do you have >> well, you know you just spoke energy and obviously this is a big concentration of mine. they're buying the june 45 calls that expire two weeks from today. the stock was $41 earlier today. b i've put on june spreads in halliburton. second one, rocket mortgage, rkt. this got lifted in the meme fever that was 2020. and now with interest rates going up, housing perhaps under pressure and mortgage rates. people aren't apply aing nearly as much. that's negative for them they're put buying at the july 8 strike july 8 is the stripe that i bought as well, scott. last aly, this is not stem cells. this is storage energy and stem they're buying calls i'd put that trade on as well. >> another quick break then we got final trades on the other side [sfx: street ambience] ♪ ["fly me to the moon"] ♪ ♪ ♪ imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond. to the moon? in other

you had a bloomberg scoop that hundreds are being cut or reassigned in the jp morgan housing unit.ou can really see the effects across all parts of the market and the economy, but i have to ask, the faster the deceleration, what are the ripple effects you are seeing across the u.s. economy? >> i think the u.s. economy is pretty much insulated from a full-blown housing crisis. kind of like what we saw in 2007. the thing is that if you look at real estate, home equity in real estate is the highest since 1980's. you look at the debt ratios, they are at the lowest levels. households have delivered quite a lot. the risks to the financial system from the housing market are pretty low at this point. of course housing will slow down and it will have spillover effects on consumption, but that is the whole idea of slowing demand by rising interest rates. jon: interesting to hear you say that. we just heard from megan greene of harvard. as we look at these bubbles in the housing market around the world based on the economics work bloomberg has done, whether it is new zealand or australia, or

jp morgan chase said abortion had long been covered under its health plan.ering assistance with abortions. they're doing more than just making statements, they're taking action to help employees in response to pressure from investors, customers, and employees. companies are also struggling to find workers amid a tight labor market. many worry about the impact antiabortion laws could have on their ability to attract and retain talent. fred? >> alison kosik, thank you so much. >>> coming up, damning testimony from the january 6th hearing this week about how donald trump tried to weaponize the u.s. justice department. we'll discussion the latest revelations, next. dry skin is sensitive skin, too. and it's natural. treat it that way. aveeno® daily moisture with prebiotic oat is proven to moisturize dry skinll day. you'll love our formula for face, too. aveeno®. my asthma felt anything but normal. ♪ it was time for a nunormal with nucala. nucala is a once monthly add-on treatment for severe eosinophilic asthma that can mean less oral steroids. not for sudden brea

this is an excellent time to showcase what jp morgan have to offer.haad: ok, it is not a great year for your space, as it were. are you seeing any i suppose light at the end of the tunnel? soo chong lim: you are right to say again asian credit market has had a choppy start for the year. year to date we've lost 11 percent. we have not seen the kind of widening in the treasury selloff we are talking about 150 basis point rise in the seven year treasury. and then another 39 basis point. so this is kind of a double whammy for us, but for the market. so the last time we've seen that kind of high single-digit losses was back in 2008 when jp morgan issued locks about 10%. we are inching close to that kind of level. yvonne: a lot of that has to do with china, right? and what we are seeing in the high-yield market. just wondering what is your exposure now to the properties based in china and beyond? soo chong lim: china property definitely is being discussed, what we are going to do with the space. most of the china property bonds are trading at distressed lev

jp morgan, for instance, announced they will lay off thousands of people. know that commercial and real estate are two completely different animals. could we see layoffs or reassignment of people? >> mortgage rates are definitely ratcheting up. the more they ratchet up over the last few months, we have seen some cooling-off and moderation in home price activity in the growth deceleration and the growth of home prices. the last time we have seen this fast of a rise in mortgage rates was in 1994. around that time, we saw new home purchases come back down. it also leads to realistic opportunities and continuing to serve your existing clients in times when they are uncertain. having the liquidity and good funding position and cash flow position enables greystone to be able to do that. jon: coming up, the five continues for spirit airlines as spirit boosted its proposal and competes with jetblue's offer. we will have the latest, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i think, if you look at the headline today, yes, make the -- maybe they are offering something that may b

s 7% in a week anybody making that call, it's a hard call to make. >> jp morgan made it any boldness on your side? >> not 7% in a week. i do think this can continue for a little bit longer. that said we're in preannouncement season pretty soon and my guess is they're more vigorous than they have in the past it's going to be a bumpy ride. >> in all fairness, it was up to 7% john, i'm going to come over to you. you're nodding once again. >> i think the other panelists are correct that we are likely to top out until we get the inputs that jim suggests that doesn't mean i think we're going to pull all the way back down because unless they pound the table for the significantly higher rates forever in the future, i do think they take a pause in september i think between now and those updates to outlooks amy spoke of, and the cpi, i think we're going to see a side ways market, not a 7% rally >> last word very quickly. >> look, if you haven't been listening to the analysts, and i'm guessing this is one of the strategies who said buy every dip that's happened. all thousand in the last year. t

and jp morgan reportedly laying off hundreds of workers in the mortgage business. jane king is live at nasdaq with those stories and more. hi, jane. >> hi, daria. yes, good morning. so jp morgan chase laying out these employees are in home lending and the reassigning hundreds more to other parts of the bank. that's according to bloomberg. now, the sole fact more than 1000 employees at the bank and they say this is a reaction to rising interest rates, less demand for mortgage. so they're cutting some of those mortgage positions. well, when investors get their quarterly for one k statements in the next few weeks, they'll be hit with some bad news. most likely the s and p 500. the broadest measure of u.s. stocks is down 21% so far this year. the nasdaq down nearly 30 in the downtown 16% of americans are seeing the value of their retirement accounts collectively dwindle by the trillions and for many workers. one job is not cutting it with inflation. fox business reports more americans are now relying on side hustles to make ends meet. so this year about 41% of side hus

today, we had jp morgan saying that, we had cbs and a few other companies that are saying it is in ourt interest to make sure that our employees have access to all the health care they need and they are looking to out any iniquities. david: that leaves out people who are not fortunate enough to work at j.p. morgan or i think meta, disney said something as well. tina: it is going to be the larger companies that can afford to take on this extra amount of cost. in an era like we have now ready on employment is so low and there is such a battle for the workforce, this might be another thing you could use to make yourself attractive to workers. david: thank you for your work on this today, which is not finished. coming up, we are going to talk with a professor of constitutional law at harvard law school and consider one of the nation's leading constitutional scholars. this is a special edition of "balance of power." ♪ at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enj

the commentary that we continue to hear out of so many executives, whether it is jamie dimon at jp morgan, or a goldman sachs and now elon musk at tesla. the s&p 500 down 1.5%. crude oil setting up for what will be a weekly gain. a massive move in the two year yield, higher by 18 basis points. a shortened holiday week here in the united states. the vix elevated on this day, right back to 25. jon: if we take a closer look at stocks, those same themes at work. when it comes to the market, because of that rally in oil prices, you have names like chevron trading higher within the dow. good conversation with the ceo on bloomberg television today. higher oil prices are things that airlines are grappling with. yes, their demand story, and we saw that from american airlines looks good. they are dealing with cost realities such as higher jet fuel. romaine was talking about the reality of tesla's road ahead and the comments reported from elon musk on staffing going forward. to your point, it has been a week where we have had more and more business leaders sharing concerns about the outlook for the

su: we will start with jp morgan.investors to prepare for an economic hurricane. this is the economy struggles against that unprecedented combination of challenges including monetary challenges and the war of ukraine. rising wages and jobs has made clouds in the outlook, but he says the bank is bracing for turbulence. the bank of canada has raised policy interest rates by 50 basis points for a second straight time, the decision brings the benchmark to 1.5%, a hawkish statement from the governor indicates policymakers are considering a faster pace of tightening. yields on bonds jumps on the decision with 2-year note's trading near the highest since 2008. china has ordered state owned banks to set up a $120 billion credit line for infrastructure projects, the announcement was made at a state council meeting chaired by the premier. the government is leaning on construction to help boost its economy which has been battered by covid lockdowns. bloomberg estimates infrastructure spending hit around $3 trillion. global news

the ceo of jp morgan chase's advise investors to prepare for an economic hurricane.calls it in the next few months. >> up next tonight, chilling new details emerging from uvalde texas. why the officer in charge of the scene reportedly was not getting information from 9-1-1. dispatchers who are fielding calls from students in the classroom where the gunman was. >> news today about when parents with kids younger than 5 could be eligible for the covid vaccine. >> and we'll update where things stand in the u.s. senate as a small group of lawmakers tries to broker a deal to help reduce all these >> debate over gun laws was already on the congressional calendar when another mass shooting happened in tulsa last night. and now it's taken on an even more urgent, meaning. >> hannah brandt is live with us from washington, d.c., tonight to explain how this push for gun control is going good evening. had. >> vicki grant, good evening. we heard from the president just about an hour ago as he gave an address on gun violence and he's calling for things like increased age limits, str

some of those companies include nike, uber, alaska airlines, citigroup, "conde naste," disney, jp morgan, microsoft, warner brothers, and cbs' parent company, paramount global. and we also heard from presidents past and present. president obama called the ruling "devastating." michelle obama called it "horrifying." and president donald trump said, "this gives the rights back to the states, as it should have been long ago." we have a team of correspondents across the country tonight, covering every angle of this story. we'll start tonight with our chief legal correspondent, cbs' jan crawford. jan, this has been quite a remarkable day. >> reporter: well, norah, mean, "roe v i mean, "roe v. wade" is one of the few decisions most americans know by name. and today, the supreme court said it's history. when the crowd heard the court had overturned "roe v. wade," there were cheers. >> it took every single one of us, people across the political and ideological spectrums, to make this a reality! >> reporter: a reality that, for abortion rights supporters, was hard to believe. >> this is a nightma

the online lecture circuit master class, real estate company redfin as well as big name banks like jp morganchase and following big losses in crypto markets, crypt currency exchange coinbase letting go of more than 1,000 employees including ulysses garza who was working in customer experience how did that hit you >> it was weird. i felt numb for a little while i couldn't really process it >> reporter: garza and his wife just bought a house and are expecting a baby boy a difficult time to be part of a growing trend. >> every day i go on linkedin and see more posts about it it's shocking. >> i think anyone would acknowledge we're in a rapidly changing economic environment. >> reporter: some executives calling layoffs preparation for a potential recession ahead. but experts point to the 11.4 million job openings and 3.6% unemployment rate nationwide >> i think what these layoffs are, are a few clouds on the horizon, and there's some concerns there might be more clouds coming and they might build up to a significant storm, and that would be a recession >> reporter: american worker hoping the clo