you brought jp morgan into it. more than 11,000 seats in the stadium. so, why kansas? talk to us a little bit about the excitement around the area, the space, and what strong so many people to the stadium. part of the back story about how you got jp morgan involved. >> kansas city is the greatest sports town in this country. a lot of people know that. obviously brittany and now patrick are investors along with us. this city has always been a great sports town and soccer town. when we had the opportunity to bring a women's professional team back to kansas city, we knew it would do really well here. sonali: talk about the markets here. we are talking about investors an alternative assets, but i'm curious, longtime credit expertise here we are bringing to the table with the fed decision this week expected, should interest rates remain higher for longer, should we see some change in the dot plot, how does that change putting new money to work? >> it's been our view for a while that we would probably be in the situation for longer and i think the markets have obviously reve

so i think jp morgan is right on.f you go back to fundamentals and look at the cash flow, a lot of these valuations really are supported. >> so valuations loan not necessarily saying that we should be scared by what we are seeing in terms of the leadership of this market. it has been fairly narrow even though you do have the s&p 500 people waiting record highs as well. >> it's interesting. you look at not only the equal rate -- equal weight, but the russell 2000, and if the s&p 500 didn't exist, or if you just look at those indexes in isolation, you would say this looks pretty good. technically they look ok, some of them are making new, all-time highs so it is really just by comparison. you are correct, of course, that many of the names and the large-cap index have gotten to be much larger than in times past. and that is different. the concentration is higher now than it was in prior bubbles, and so that is concerning because usually when companies become that big either individually or collectively, they don't stay t

morgan stanley and jp morgan were the first banks to raise money in the region. rgan stanley had a 5 billion euros sale. jp morgan sold 2 billion euros. in the u.s., high-grade issuance from unitedhealth and campbell soup helped to drive yearly sales past $500 billion, the fastest start to a year on record. high yield, this month is likely to finish is the second busiest march in five years, surpassed only by 2021, when support is yours put in place during pandemic cause the surge. sticking with credit, earl davis explained why he has a neutral stance. >> it's a mature business cycle, getting closer to the end. we feel the spreads adequately reward individuals for holding high yields. right now we are mutual credit and getting close to underweight credit if we get more euphoria in the market. the reason we are here is there was just so much cash on the cache line. we saw the trillions in the money market accounts. as long as there is relative stability in the market, people have to put that cash to work. vonnie: let's bring in zach griffiths and credit -- zach and

jp morgan's tool which runs on artificial intelligence helps customers.ince launching a year ago, the wholesale payments unit has 2500 clients using the product. this follows other lenders that happens living up there use of artificial intelligence with the aim of lifting productivity, reducing cost. ed: one of those banks is citizens. let's talk about that with chairman and ceo bruce van saun, who is in town for a conference in san francisco. jp morgan wanted to add a billion dollars of value, upgraded it to 1.5 billion this year because of the work they are doing in ai. do you have a similar goal that you are working on? bruce: may 1 lesson zero on some of these numbers, us versus them, size wise, but we have a similar product called cash flow essentials which helps small businesses forecast their cash flows, rolling out this year. great expectations for it. ed: you come to town three years after getting your tech vertical set up through jmp. is there one clear ambition you have this week, the conversation that you will have? i know these events, some d

what is the case and how is it different for citadel l than, say, jp morgan?broker-dealer with a higher recordkeeping burden then firms like citadel, which has a lower burden because of the different registration status. jp morgan needed to keep a good deal, if not all, of the communications with their bankers, the burden for firms like citadel is lower. usually it's things like investment recommendations. sonali: thank you for your time and reporting. that story is one of the most read of the day. checking on the markets, the s&p 500 not quite at session lows, but certainly speeding up the decline. down .3%. the same goes for the nasdaq 100. yields are hanging out at 468 -- 4.68 on the day. we saw a stunning 10 basis point in the 10-year yield in the day to day. you are seeing pricing expectations in the swap markets as well as the stop arc it's. expectations are changing around the number of rate cuts this year. i'm sonali basak, happy pi day. we hope you get to enjoy that in your own way, today. keep an eye on us, it's a busy trading day through the close.

the saudi's plan to hire jp morgan is one of the main underwriters. of america and morgan stanley are also contending in the deal. it could raise as much as $20 billion. joining us more is matthew in riyadh. why now and how competitive is it for these banks to get on this deal? >> as you say, it's an intensely competitive process. back in 2019 when they first did the ipo of aramco which raised around $30 billion which was the biggest ipo deal in history. it's an intensely competitive process before -- for these banks. it's not something that proved to be particularly remunerative for them. the fees were low but the pressure was on to get on it for credentials purposes rather than because it will raise a huge amount for the investment banks involved in the process. the saudi government is particular keen on trying to do this because as we get further through this plan that the crown prince has to invest in diversifying the economy and invest internationally as well into creating the sovereign wealth fund here, making it one of the world's biggest, the

. >> we do have jp morgan reporting that walgreens reporting this morning. just marginally higher. down 20% year-to-date. the s&p is up about 10%. if strong quarter for the s&p. some of the report, anytime there is a strategic review that comes along, you do see traders eager to see that happen. they are reiterating what we heard from this company. they tightened their outlook. the company did site a tough retail environment. a tough break down when it came to the village primary care unit. when it comes to cost-cutting efforts, that is what investors are eager to hear more about. we will have to see as more executives come in. katie: coming up, home depot building out its businesses as they try to move professional contractors. we will have information on the new deal, next. ♪ something amazing is happening here. retailers are moving inventory quickly and securely. that's because cdw designed and built a solution with cisco security. end to end protection, defends against attacks and makes better decisions in real time. so warehouse and customer data stay protected every step of t

jp morgan seeing meaningful acceleration. i'm sure it is because of the ai promise.t are you doing differently in your automation software? ashim: we have had several great product releases out there. if you look at the ai trends, we have been investing for the last five years. things like autopilot which enables natural language to allow developers to create automations faster. that is being released and will go into production being priced in the summertime. when you look at intelligent document processing, this is processing and understanding the billions of documents that exist in governments and enterprises. . that is meaningfully scaling now with our customers. when we look at those trends and look at the c level conversations we are having, they are no longer talking about digital transformation but ai transformation. they made ai platforms --they need ai platforms and that this will become in. ed: the last 18 months has been about a romantic discussion around generative ai, a direct to consumer focus chatbots. a lot of people coming to the honest reflection t

jp morgan securities chief chief japan strategist will be with us.ong wage increases for japanese labor may be the trigger needed. we got that data toward the end of last week. to see some gains in the small-cap stocks. firms have been humbled by focus consumer spending for years. are asia stocks reporter joins us from tokyo. presumably wage increases leads to improved household spending investors are looking to trade around this somatic -- this thematic. >> exactly. the surprisingly strong wage negotiation involves putting a fresh focus on japanese small-cap shares. they have been underperforming the overall market very sharply this year. if you look at the small-cap index, the gains is about half of the largest companies like the topics core 30. if you look at sectors like food companies, transportation, air travel, the share has risen somewhere between two to 5% compared to 20% gains in bigger companies. obviously investors are now looking at whether they are going to catch up with the markets rally now that it is becoming more certain the real wa

jp morgan was fined $348 dollars for failing to properly monitor trading activities.ation of fines from the federal reserve and the comptroller of the currency. regulators say the lapses in monitoring happened between 2014 and last year. they rely on trading data to prevent insider trading and market manipulation. a spokesperson for jp morgan says the bank self identified the issue and notified regulators. a volcanic eruption in iceland prompted evacuations for locals. it's the fourth eruption there near blue lagoon since december, spewing smoke and bright orange lava into the air. there's a nearly two mile long fissure in the ground. officials warned for weeks that an eruption was imminent, but say exactly when it would happen was impossible. the nearest airport remains open for now, although it has to ground. some planes for eruptions had to ground some planes for eruptions in the past. now to gaza, where cease fire talks between israel and hamas could begin as early as sunday. abc's ines de la cuetara has a story tonight about a flying hospital that's evacuating ga

watch this space and jp morgan will hit another record.n: is why you've seen all-time highs on the nation's largest bank. futures positive .2%. yields unchanged on the 10 year, 4.1%. the euro going nowhere. that rate decision one hour 10 minutes away. coming up, ed your jenny, tobin mark just come in christina camp many looking for rate cuts later this year. stocks rebounding after chariman powell reiterated rate cuts are likely at some point this year. a growing number of economists forecasting no concentrate 24. ed your jenny running the stock market is having a significant leap positive wealth effect on the economy. as a reason to believe the economy will remain resilient and another reason the fed might hesitate to lower the federal funds rate for a while. ed joins us for more. i wonder what camp you are in. thank you for catching up with us. apollo no rate cut this year. mizuho, no rate cut. where is ed yardeni on the same issue? ed: i am basically in that camp. at most we will get two rate cuts. three as possible. at this point those

the financial institution jp morgan also rejected the change of investment path from gold to bitcoin warned about the risk of market return and stressed that both gold and bitcoin assets may return to their average level. thank you for your company, be happy and god bless you ladies and gentlemen now. when going to the city , buy household items. i don't have a check. goodbye everyone. bye. no, the lady does not want a checkbook at all. will you be a guarantor? i don't want to be a guarantor. the truth advance payment for home appliances. does not want advance payment. a special purchase for dear social security retirees from city of appliances. home of the city of home appliances, a specialized reference for home appliances, great tea because josh is great, the color of rice. it is with delicate lines in the style of the day, a new idea from rasan, precisely fitting shiralt tok. rastan's work to manage the space beyond the limits, shiralt tu kar rastan, model renata rasan, hot and cold companion of life , these are the good ones, the world of colors. complete your children in the ho

bob michele of jp morgan. let's get you updated with other stories with your boom -- with your bloomberg brief. yahaira: investors took a bite out of apple's market value following regulator moves against the company. the doj and 16 attorneys general filing a lawsuit accusing apple from blocking hardware and software features on the iphone, claim apple strongly refuted. across the atlantic the company is said to be facing probes about whether it is complying with europe's digital markets act. tesla has reduced electric car production in china amid sluggish sales and intense competition in the world's largest auto market. sources telling bloomberg the company instructed employees to lower production of the model y sport utility and the model three 3 by working five days a week instead of the usual six and a half. nike warning investors will take a hit pushing shares lower in trading. the world's largest sportswear company says it is working to realign merchandise to better match what shoppers actually want to b

only in terms of the outlook with the investor community, the analyst community, you could look at jp morgan i think somewhere around 5, 5.25, piper out there too, and someone like jeffries, who is closer to 300. it's all the multiple. there are 22 times, and these other folks are at 35 times. lulu at 35 to 40 times for the kind of growth they were giving you over the last three years was worth it. the question is, what are you doing now? nike, another case of, hey, we know that they actually have to invest in innovation. they kind of said that. there may be some pressure on margins. we're going to grow what, 1% in the first half of '25 for nike? what's the multiple you're putting on that company? it gets back to these are fantastic companies, companies that i guess i believe the slowdown, i was here about six months ago and that's how i played the stocks, for nike it was a short, and for lulu, i talked about this last night, i'll say it again, i covered that short yesterday during the day because it was around 15% in my face and i said going into these numbers, i'm pretty confident in what

joined by kathy june the charles schwab, deutsche bank, jp morgan, kpmg, former new york fed presidentdley, jeff rosenberg of blackrock and mohamed el-erian of queens college cambridge. that is quite a lineup this afternoon. lisa: to parse through all of those projections are not and what the implications are, maybe we will hear jay powell come out and say i was wrong, financial conditions matter, we are going to change the neutral rate of 4%. probably not, but we are going to parse through everything that they put out there. jonathan: and here is the lineup tomorrow morning. there is a lot to discuss. the federal reserve decision, 2:00 p.m. eastern time. a huge conference with chairman powell. live from new york city this morning, we will see you this afternoon. this was bloomberg surveillance. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so, my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcía's, love working with you. because the advice we gi

. >> but still the banks jp morgan hits a record high.here is a little move out of certain big tech stocks into other big names like jp morgan. >> which is why i don't think the little bit of unsettled markets today is really sending that much of a worrisome macro message. it's not as if people are necessarily panicking about a slightly softer ism services number, credit markets remain pretty sturdy. cyclicals, industrials and consumer are doing okay if you look at the new high list, too. so everybody should be prepared for a little payback after the run we had. we'll see how deep it goes. >> mike santoli, thank you very much. >>> our next market guest is expecting an suspension in the rally in the year ahead but says that is contingent on the fed cutting interest rates. let's bring in kevin monn the president and chief investment officer at henion and walsh asset management. okay, so the fed needs to cut. >> yeah. >> you're not the only one who believes that. but take us through why it has to do it soon or not. >> sure. and let's just re

jp morgan yesterday, record high.aking index is performing in line with the index on the s&p, up 4% over 5%. even the regional baking index down 3% and we have known about this issue all month. lisa: people have been trying to sniff out to the losers are in the small bank space about a year. if they have spent a year trying to sit it out and reprice where their holdings are, is this going to surprise them? the biggest surprise is given that, why are people not more alarmed with a kitchen sink and then another kitchen sink? jonathan: nycb is down by 26%. bramo's list of worries gets shorter. coming up, avery sheffield -- with opec+ likely to extend cuts. megan robson from bnp paribas. we begin with stocks at record highs of following a fourth month of gains. avery sheffield saying this, " the market is partying extremely hard. valuations are stretched and fundamentals are being overruled. we think that this creates underappreciated downside risk." you sound like a guest lisa booked. let's talk about downside risk. welc

jp morgan closing at an all-time high.you go back to the difficulties of last spring, jp morgan was down 9%. for the mantle system there is a willingness to say it is an issue for them, it is not an issue for the others. lisa: is a management issue as much as it is a broader economic issue. that is a huge signal considering how much of a selloff in macro concerned the banking issues were last spring. this does tell you people are looking past this. annmarie: and we have jay powell on the hill tomorrow and he will be asked about this, this idea of compartmentalization, is that true when you have 80% of these regional banks holding commercial real estate loans. he will be grilled on whether he thinks this is idiosyncratic or not. jonathan: we have been going through the difficulties of apple and tesla. these are the headwinds they are facing in china as we discussed more and more about the breakup. iphone sales following 24% over the first six weeks of this year. tesla continuing its fall after posting a 16% drop month over

fortress balance sheets, jp morgan, bank of america, city wells. big trust banks led more than president state street, bank of new york. they are fortress balance sheets, really safe. but there are 4400 tanks in the country and about 10% of those have really high funding costs in the double digits and in addition to that have balance sheets that are really troubled because they have 40%-50% in real estate. i think they are already solvent -- insolvent or moving towards insolvency and the industry will continue to consolidate. it is happening in the banking sector and corporate sector. it is happening in real estate. it is also happening with consumers. we see delinquency rates among consumers for both autos" of cards having surged from less than 2% to over 6% today in the last 12 months. you are seeing a tale of two cities play out at higher rates. sonali: i want to talk about real estate because you have very divergent views. some people are saying that you don't really have a floor yet when it comes to property values, when it comes to commercial

lisa: jp morgan talked about the ballast to the credit sphere. of froth, something meghan talked about because of the increased competition. sounds like the equity market. it makes sense, so it can go on for a long time. is that what you see? amanda: we see it, and it is not necessarily in one area. to me, it reflects that fundamentals are pretty good, economic backdrop is strong, but if you look at spreads, they look really tight optically. if you look at all in yields, we are talking really cheap levels on a percentile basis if you looked at daily spreads and yields, back to 2010, yield screens are really cheap and spreads are really rich. the marginal buyer and credit is yield based, so when they come to deploy capital, they are not looking at it on spread versus index. that is fueling some of that optically type spread measures and credit as opposed to it is not indiscriminate because we are seeing triple c's lag and a pretty significant share of credits trading above 1000 basis points in spread. you are seeing dispersion with overleveraged c

here jpmorgan wealth management knows it's easy to get lost in investment research get help with jp morgan versus it's an old advisers. >> hey david, ready to get started. >> work with advisors who create a plan with you and help you find the right investments. >> so great, getting to know you. let's take a look at your new investment plan. >> okay, great. >> this should have you moving in the right direction. thanks, john. >> yet ongoing advice in manage your investments in the chase mobile app the future is not just going to happen. you have to make it. >> and if you >> want a successful business, all it takes is an idea and now becomes you a future where you grew a dream into reality we all knew godaddy arrow put your business online in minutes with the power of ai for nearly a decade, i served in the navy supporting seal teams. today, i run sabo outdoors with fellow special operations veterans our mobile app connects customers with hunting, fishing, and other outdoor experiences. american technology has been essential to our growth. but some in washington wanted stifle the technology.

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your views on jp morgan and jamie dimon. he says a recession is not off the table. cautionary call? >> as you say consensus moved from that in the final months of last year but he is right that you can have a recession and not know it until one month after it ends. recessions in america are are disdainful of the gdp rule. in that sense, he is not off the money. tom: ok, dan moss with a preview of inflation data, will be hearing from jamie dimon cautioning that recession is not off the table. january jobs data is out in 20 minutes time. numbers will be watched by the bank of england. let's bring in anna. what can we expect today? >> good morning. data will be awkward for the boe a. it cannot take a clear signal from the unemployment rate. boe is unlikely to close a lot of weight. the second most important thing is which chris has been on a fast decline. is likely to show a decline so on the whole economy, wage gains are likely to stay unchanged in the private sector measure is likely to be 6.3%. this increase is largely anticipated. overall the boe will move through

sort of the run up to the acquisition by jp morgan. i want to sort of start with a basic question. so to recap, the systemic risk exception was triggered for the situation which was pretty dire, pretty significant. because the exception was triggered, the fdic effectively engaged in what i would call it a bailout or whatever term you want to apply. depositors were made whole and the shareholders were not. that the argument of course was that it somehow prevented a broader panic or bank run in the markets. i'm curious if you could take me back to that decision coming up on a year ago. why did you think, given that sv be was so focused on the technology and venture capital sector, the sector that i know well, why did you think it posed a systemic risk or why did you and the broader board decide that? >> we were concerned about contagion to other banks. the source of the problem was really two things that affected silicon valley bank. one was losses, mainly unrealized but nevertheless, obvious losses from a failure to manage interest rate risk properly. interest rates had risen substa

together with jp morgan's david kelly.he biggest data point of the week stateside, maybe even worldwide is coming up next. ♪ in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo when i was your age, we never had anything like this. get your business online in minutes what? wifi? wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. the basement. so i can finally throw that party... and invite shannon barnes. dream do come true. xfinity gives you reliable wifi with wall-to-wall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. maybe we'll even get married one day. i wonder what i will be doing? probably still living here with mom and dad. fast reliable speeds right where you need them. that's wall-to-wall wifi on the xfinity 10g network. jonathan: this scores going into the information look like this. negative or rather positive. i what half of 1%. shaping up as follows. 4.08%. your economic data. mike mckee has the numbers. mik

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you have seen goldman and jp morgan coming out and saying that you look at earnings and they justify what we are seeing in valuation. walk me through how you are thinking about that conversation in relation to what we have seen already in the late 90's. >> i was managing money back then. it was an interesting time. it was fun. it ultimately ended. a number of things are different. one thing that drove for example cisco, what drove down the stock price was their underlying customers went out of business and that is partly because we were valuing companies on eyeballs and clicks and these companies melted down. now we have what i think we are in the early stages of is the ai early generative. we are overweight technology but we are looking to names in the old economy that are utilizing and pivoting to digitization and generative ai computing. that broadens the universe. for companies generating strong earnings growth -- i agree with the strategists. the valuations are not out of line. take a microsoft that is now trading at 33 times with a much more robust company underlying edge. orac

when you have jp morgan dominating absolutely everything?or all of us. we act like a u.s. bank. lisa: when you act like a u.s. bank with a specific focus, the five pillars of your organization. recently you offset some risk from your credit card portfolio. there is a real question here about where you see an opportunity to lend in the consumer space at a time of uncertainty in the cycle? c.s.: we view the consumer space in two ways. in the u.s. we have a great credit card business. we have 20 corporate partners, blue-chip corporations. we are looking to continue to grow that partnership business in the u.s. in a measured way because it has great synergies with our investment bank and is a great overall business for us. in the u.k. we have trends across the consumer franchise. it is our homeland, home turf. we look to increase that strength. lisa: is there more emphasis on growing in the united kingdom outside of the u.s.? the u.s. effort will be much more bespoke, focused on clear vertical rather than the whole picture. c.s.: we have a compl

that was jp morgan's e.m. research had. speaking to us earlier.ts trading in under five minutes. sensex index futures up by 2/10 of 1%. gains pretty much across the board. the governor saying he expects growth of about 8% which is faster than the governments own estimate. take a look at where we are in terms of the financial stocks. they are in positive territory. gm financial up 7/10 of 1%. bear in mind, it slumped about 20% on the back of the r.b.i. clampdown on shadow lenders. including an equity bonds ipo as well as gold financing. up by 2.8%. as we lead up to the open. bear in mind as well, it got dumped by about 20%. let's delve deeper, bring in our asia equities reporter. regulators in india seem to be cracking down on a number of companies. what's the worry here? what are we reading into this action? >> hi. i must say. while the euphoria, there's caution also building in some parts of the markets becoming overly absurd brent. we've seen india as well as markets coordinating on some of the recent actions. the latest being the ban on gm fina

jp morgan on one side saying there are etf suppressing volatility and then on the others, saying it is this benign backdrop that we have been existing in. i am curious about the debate. >> i would say this is the hottest topic. i want to say two things about this. the reason most fundamental investors are having this to be is a question of, is this going to be concerning way? we know that volatility is low and suppressed, but does it bring this? i would say the answer is no. it is a different environment. often the question that people are implicitly asking is, is this something to worry about? no. it is not the same environment. matt said, in terms of what is functionally causing this, i think it is a little bit of both. there are supply demand dynamics, but as we heard, we are in an environment where we get this disinflation and things are just doing ok and humming along. i think it is a little bit of both, but i do not think there is the concern that we saw leading into the blowups. katie: a little bit of both, but we are not heading into an armageddon. we will see what is moving th

jp morgan upping their target for oil to hit $100 a barrel.uch of a headache is that given that oil has a read through across the space when it comes to other products and goods? constance: if we look at will prices on any metric on a real basis, remember all of these commodities quoted nominally, they have not increased that much. they also not decreased. that should have also not decreased. i will feed. you prices the question is how quickly we get to $100 -- the question is how quickly we get to $100. if it is a swift and sustained, that is a different story. annmarie: if it is this summer and the markets expecting june, does that mean the fed may have to distance themselves again? constance: we are casting oil prices is a tricky thing to do and it is we get to 100. gasoline prices would cut demand for other goods and services. 70 people need to use their cars to get to work and we have a predominant internal combustion engine fleet. if your previous guest is in them to go by, that will be slowly going away -- if your previous guest is anyt

the united ceo making comments at a jp morgan investor conference.ries slowing to 17 from 25 month over month. southwest warning its schedules and hiring plans would be frozen due to the weaker output. joining us around the table. everyone's got ton more -- tons more. >> they are heading up and we are thinking sort of mid single digits and may be a little bit more markets the people want to go to, europe comes to mind. asia is growing this summer. domestic u.s. a lot of capacities out of the u.s. market so we are seeing this going up. >> how much is this truly because of boeing issues and how much is this because they want bigger margins. >> it's a combination of both. there's a lot of things playing on the industry that are causing airfares to go up. first of all you had huge labor wage increases across the board. flight attendants are negotiating now just past peak so they may not get the sizable increase those pilots got last year but they will still get big increases so that's one thing to think about and then you have infrastructure issues, the

haslinda: how about the impact of india being included in the jp morgan bond index?es it mean for the ruby for interest rates? >> so the bond index inclusion is obviously good news from a flows perspective. given india's current account deficit has also been moderating or narrowing in the last 12 months. it's a positive for the balance of payments overall. so the bond index flows are expected to be staggered. our team expects these to be around 25 to $30 billion as the bond index inclusion starts from june this year to the fiscal year when it should include. that will be positive from interest rate and repeat perspective as well. just because it improves the demand supply dynamics of the government secured he market. also it further includes the balance which remains pretty robust. robert: haslinda: do you think -- haslinda: do you think the increased flows could be absorbed by the r.b.i.? >> it will be staggered. the weight of the indian bonds would increase by about 1% every month. the flows will therefore be 2.5 to $3 billion every month. in that context, it shoul

we got this new inclusion process in the jp morgan em index, foreign investors very underway. in terms of correlations with other bond markets and equities, it does give good diversification, the portfolio. i think there's a lot to like. haslinda: overall the markets looking to the fed and what is expected from the fed next week. what are you anticipating and what are you hoping to hear? tom: it does seem, given some of the inflation data we've seen just this week, there is a pretty strong potential of the dot plot being moved to two rate cuts for this year. 322. what impact will that have? the fed is not expected to cut at this particular time but they will give indication as to the forward look on their dot plot and what the individual members expected if we moved to two that will impact markets. i think the u.s. dollar will strengthen on the back of that. we've already gone from six to three, so three to two, the impact i'm not exactly sure about. i think the a look is volatility on equities and growth, what is the actual drawdown impact on growth from gdp and earnings vers

haidi: take a look at morning calls as we are watching jp morgan's chief market strategist seeing thematic rally in u.s. stocks in bitcoin as indicative of rising froth under the market. is where conditions typically precede a bubble. he says investors may be assuming -- earnings projections are going down. he has the market appears too complacent on the cycle. goldman sachs wealth management cio says china's stock market decliners are not enough to warrant putting money into the country. she sees the economy struggling in the property market, infrastructure and exports. >> given how cheap china peers, people in evitable lycee, has it discounted the worst news? i review is one should not invest in china. we think the economy is going to continue to steadily slow down for the next 10 years. that is an important factor. when we are looking at policy uncertainty, it is not clear what the overall general direction of policy will be long-term. haidi: also sharing his bleak the on china is the ruby need ceo. >> i am more concerned about china than europe. europe has been in stagnation for t

black swan in the market and had there we're going to see a higher capital build required for the jp morgansbanks, it's idiosyncratic even as jamie dimon has said it's been poor management of really their loans, that was true with new york community bank or there was depositor duration risk so it's really two dynamics of one where we're going to see more regulation will be with the largest banks and then unfortunately with some of the smaller banks they'll pop up from time to time where we see a bank specific issue. maria: i mean, it's interesting to watch this bifurcation going on throughout the banking system right now. we'll have to look at each case individually i guess. ken, it's great to catch up with you. thanks so much. >.ken leon joining us. quick break and then israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu ready to defy president biden's red line on the impending invasion of the southern gaza strip. rob whitman is here coming up with reaction. stay with us. ♪ take me away. ♪ a secret place. ♪ a sweet escape. ♪ take me away. ♪ in a rocky mountain setting spanning over 280,000 acres. thr

ge also higher after it was upgraded by jp morgan to overweight. micron raised to a buy.t another day of potential records on the s&p 500. stick with us, this is bloomberg. more markets ahead. this has been sonali basak. happy weekend to you all. ♪ fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. hot dogs! fresh, warm hot dogs! before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. caroline: i'm caroline hyde. ed: and i'm led ludlow. caroline: stocks and crypto pushed to record highs, bitcoin at $70,000 and the ai rally as nvidia

tomorrow, lena richardson of adp, jp morgan, steve richutio. we also just heard how it is not likely but it is looking more like a possibility given some of the strong data. annmarie: steve's big point is that he is looking more toward fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. jonathan: no cuts. after friday's data, that pushes back the conversation a little bit. a setback for them. lisa: we are still talking north of 200,000 jobs. it is not nothing. jonathan: it is just not 350. lisa: is that the threshold? jonathan: tomorrow, bramo gets an extra hour of sleep. less grumpy? lisa: isn't that obvious? >> at the aussie open in january with a dominant display to the round of 16. after going behind in the opener, the polish superstar went on a tear, taking 11 of the last 12 games of the match. don't forget, tennis channel's daily live coverage as the air at 1:00 eastern. how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what about zocdoc? so many options. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance. xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! you'

bob michele of jp morgan, peter oppenheimer of goldman sachs, kneeled out of, mohammed bail -- mohammedwe parse through what we heard about a change in the reaction function. that's the take away. there's been a shift at the fed where growth does not necessarily mean inflation and does not come in conflict of their goal. jon: that's something that's been developing for months based on the communication from chairman powell. stocks yesterday, all-time highs of the close. the opening bell about 35 minutes away. looking for more record highs. from new york, good morning. this was bloomberg surveillance. ♪ you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? did we peak your interest? you can get two unlimited lines for just $30 each a month. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for

jp morgan ceo warned that a recession is not off the table. what is your take on that? >> you keep reporting on it year after year, week after week, time after time. and he keeps saying it. at some point, someone will say jamie, you weren't right last year or this here. >> justin for president. >> what is your take? >> exactly right. you can keep talking about recessions. i don't know whether there is one on the horizonment we have 5% unemployment. people's wages go up. they continue to spend. inflation has come down. home prices going up. gas prices under control. how does this make a recession? >> gina, had 15 more questions for you. but you know ali. talk, talk, talk. now we are out of time. >> i have a lot of show. come join us. >> great to see you all. when we come back, congress is debating legislation to ban tiktok. and the president said he would sign it. we're going to break down what a ban could look like. how it would be implemented and how about all the other social media companies? are we looking at them? when the 11th hour continues. t when the 11th hour c

bob michele from jp morgan comes on the program. we estimate very straightforward question. -- we asked him a very straightforward question. he said when was the last time that you were this bullish? mid to thousands. mohamed el-erian said the same thing. lisa: the question that you asked is the theme of the morning. how far do we have to go back before we see this all-encompassing bullishness? there might have been consequences down the line, but it took long enough for people to make a lot of money in the meantime, and that seems to be where we are at. jonathan: you hear things like that and it makes you feel uncomfortable, but it has been upgrade after upgrade.we had one from socgen taking price targets from 4750 to 55 hundred. u.s. exceptionalism is going from strength to strength. despite widespread market optimism we view this as rational rather than excessive. this is not a bubble. , times have we heard that in the last couple of weeks? lisa: this is not a bubble. to me it raises the question. there is a lot of early cycle ty

every single our bob michele of jp morgan, i feel great. he was bearish a year ago. this is a big change. lisa: now the bearishness is not being bullish enough. we see upgrade after upgrade on wall street as everyone reassesses what the pivot from the fed means. jonathan: oppenheimer raising the s&p 500 year end target to 5500. i think that might be john stall office. you talk to him about upgrading the target and here we are. lisa: he said i'm going to revise things. there's not much upside from here to get there. as we heard, it did not take long before we could get to 5400 by the end of this week. jonathan: they get lined coming from boeing. let's get going up on the screen. boeings dave calhoun announces his intent to step down as the ceo. the stocks is higher in the premarket 2.5%. the boeing ceo announcing his attention to step down as ceo. lisa: everyone is wondering what took so long. everyone was wondering why he was still there. the idea this is a cultural problem that is not yet seen bottom and a question of who comes in and what is the cleaning house effo

we haven't had a chance to talk about the collapse and run-up to the acquisition of sv b, by jp morgan. i want to start with a basic question. so, to recap, the systemic risk exception was triggered for the trenton situation which was pretty dire. pretty significant. because of the exceptional risks triggered, the fdic effectively engaged in what i would call a bailout. the uninsured depositors were made whole. the shareholders were not, but the argument is that, that somehow prevented a broader panic or bank run in the markets and i'm curious if you could just take me back to that decision, coming up on a year ago, why did you think, given that svb was so focused on obviously the technology sector and the venture capital sector , the sector i know well, why did you think posed a systemic risk to the economy? or why did you and the board decide that? >> we were concerned -- other banks. and, the source of the problem, there were really two things that affected silicon valley bank. one was losses, mainly unrealized but nevertheless losses from a failure to manage interest rate risks pro

probably not jp morgan. maybe citigroup. i don't know.e pieces, right. jpm did it last time. but you made the point the last time we heard from jay powell that he took out that one line, that the banks system -- >> is resilient or whatever. i mean, obviously there are issues with the banking system and we've known that for roughly a year. a year ago we started to get the issues out of signature bank. i guess that would -- if there are issues in the banking system, you would probably expect jay powell to cut rates sooner than expected but i've got to tell you, that's not what i heard yesterday. what i heard is he's going to be cautious and calculated. i heard the momentum, maybe the three month moving average of month over month inflation is more important than the year over year going down and it's been coming in at 0.4%, 4.8% annualized run rate. i'm expecting fewer cuts this year than most. maria: i agree with you. i don't know how he cuts more than once. we're going to cut in june but anything beyond that he's going to get criticized f

jp morgan, banks are doing very well. stocks can continue well but it's value, small cap and international commodities names leading the charge. ashley: so you think we're going to see more broad based gains as opposed to relying on big tech names? >> exactly, ashley. they've been great names for quite some time but it wasn't technology that led the charge in the first quarter. it was energy names so i like gold and so many of the names that are might not be so familiar to investors just yet but keep in mind, crypto seemed exotic three and four years ago and no one is laughing about and same with gold even two or three years from now. ashley: fantastic stuff as always, jonathan. thanks for joining us on this good friday and enjoy the holiday. >> best to you, ashley. be well. ashley: all right, jonathan, thank you. the u.s. is reportedly working on a list of chinese chip factories banned from receiving important tech tools. back in 2022 the they limited these and according to roaders, several companies requested a list of

the jp morgan view is to have this big boom in the option selling etfs.eas to billion dollars at this point. they think that is suppressing volatility. you take the other side of that. mandy: the key thing to keep in mind is correlation does not mean causation. just because two things have been happening at the same time, the a um and the funds have been growing at the same time the vix has been falling does not mean one is leading to the other. to dig into the impact, what you want to see as the impact on the volatility surface. if these funds were having a disproportionate impact on the volatility surface, you would expect the volatility risk premium to start to drink and the second is you would expect out of the money call options to decline relative to at the money call options given the majority of these funds are overriding calls. we are seeing the opposite. the volatility risk premium has grown over the year. out of the money call options have been historically rich relative to at the money. as you are looking for the dominant force in the derivati

patrice: maria: when i spoke with jamie dimon the ceo of jp morgan recently he said under the new baslill be forced to hold 30% more capital than the number one international competitor. what is the fed doing with the new capital rules in terms of putting u.s. banks at a disadvantage? >> we will make our banks uncompetitive if they impose the basel-3 new capital rules being pushed by elizabeth warren and others in washington. it's a bad idea. jamie dimon is right. and the impact of that is less credit availability for small businesses, for households in america and making american banks less competitive as he noted to banks around the world so it's a bad idea but there are other biden policies that are bad too. they have a rule called rule 1071 which will curtail lending to small businesses if they push he it through. and we have new costs being pushed by the cfpb, consumer protection board as well that are raising costs for banks and making it tougher for them to do their job of lending money to small businesses and our house holds. maria: is it still a very tight lending environment,

commentary about how this is not just a media story, it's a broad story for the s&p, i know us a jp morgan, it's a huge part of our conversations and how we can become better people eyes are dutch advisors and more efficient. -- advisors and more efficient. we will still be here next week. >> good to see you. monica descends out. looking for the winners in the losers in the s&p 500. super micro computer up year-to-date. nvidia up, bottom of the pile tesla and bowing. two stocks in a bad place this year. >> bowing it's one catastrophe after another and tesla because there's a real change in the idea around electric vehicles. did you read about the ceo who left after the disaster, i was reading about the resale value of electric vehicles. it's very minimal. the battery only exists for eight years. so if it's only eight years a mess the bulk of the value in the car you have to replace it. you don't get the same resale values with an engine and parts, this to me is a significant issue. >> no confidence around battery degradation at all trying to work out what that secondary market should be. f

we caught up with jp morgan, and he explained the following, when the fed is asked if we are sufficientlyan powell will point to the labor market and then simultaneously embrace and confirm that the improvement came from the supply side. how can you point to the labor market as a sign that it is restrictive and acknowledged that improvements come from the supply side? can you say those two at once? rich: i think you can, wage inflation has stepped down to around 4%, but that is still a little bit hot compared to where they would like to get, but the chair is right. there has been labor supply productivity, and i actually think that if i could, i think a little bit more of a disconnect is on financial conditions itself. if you just look merrily at the fed rate, it is about inflation, but very few people, including banks, if you look at mortgage rates, if you look at other things, they have come down and credit spreads are tight. financial conditions indexes are easing, so he got that question last week about financial conditions and he says we think they are tight. they are certainly easie