the latest inflation number, ppi surges in june, futures down >> and jpmorgan and morgan stanley both out with earnings and missing on the top and bottom lines we'll dig through the numbers. >>> and rising costs hitting intel. looking to hike prices >> misses from jpmorgan and morgan stanley you say the street should have been closer to it. >> we have to start thinking about how wrong the analysts have been on almost everything or how ignorant. we have sat here and not rung the bell >> very few things >> investment banking, you say to yourself, well, what were they thinking? how about if you take it to zero it would have been better. david, one of the things that jpmorgan i think uniquely did was confirm the hurricane thesis >> on the press call, you know, we've been listening in of course on the analyst call, and on the press call jamie dimon i think spoke more on that call than the analyst call to that point. referring to his comments last quarter or actually during their -- >> not the actual, the analyst >> where he talked about a hurricane but not knowing the strength of the hurri

we're talking about jpmorgan.k things go on sale for me, for any long-term investor like the banking industry, i think in a rising rate environment, banks end up doing well. i think this is a great opportunity. cheryl: banks usually make a little more money when interest rates are higher. dick bove doesn't quite agree with me on that. he used. fed funds futures after the cpi report yesterday they're pricing in a 85% chance of a full point rate hike this month. >> yeah. cheryl: do you have faith in the fed they can fix this? >> well, listen, i honestly think i'm in the larry kudlow camp. i think they should have raised by 100 basis points two months ago. i think they missed the opportunity. that puts them behind the eight ball after yesterday's ppi report, clearly inflation is not responding yet. i think they have to get more aggressive, 100 basis points in two weeks. now fed fund futures getting 75 in september. potentially talk may be intermeeting hike in august, right? that might send shivers to the market the f

i know what is interesting in jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley, there is no shock look at jpmorgan chasewere you surprised loan origination down 75% trading was up 17% and 21% resp respectively the catalyst is you have to remember volatility makes markets go down and also go up earnings are slowing as long as earnings are not disappearing, the market has the ability to go back up 3% or 4% and test the moving average. >> jeff, you are an oil guy. that's how you started >> look at oil and copper. dr. copper is giving us an idea where the market is going. we saw gdp almost negative the first time for a long sometime in chwtime in china that is due to the lockdown. i think oil goes back above $100 due to the global reopening and demand and we get the bears in the recession talk to fade as we see earnings season shy. i see crude oil demand we will see what president biden and the administration can do for the supply perspective i think the demand is there. the consumer is strong it is nice in chicago to see the relief sully, that pain at the pump is a big driver of inflation. >> at the gurnee

jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley stepping up first.tocks have been under pressure following back-to-back quarters of inflation results it could weigh on consumer spending and the banks' bottom lines. let's go to ken leon for the latest ken, this bank trade is a comeback trade for months and quarters and years now what will it take to get the trade going? >> good morning, dom you are right. the narrative has changed. we're at an inflection point where perhaps the economy is putting pressure on the banks. the question is for investors is where the bull is going over the next 6 to 12 months. not where we are we are going to shed light with jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley today on loan activity and capital markets. all of a sudden, instead of releasing reserves, banks are building up for credit losses potentially next year. >> okay. if that's the case, let's look at the big results coming out from jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley. you could argue beoth are bellwether in the business side of things. what are you looking for out of jpmorg

disappointing results from jpmorgan and morgan stanley.we have new lows today, guys for jpmorgan, goldman, and morgan stanley. >> when we had discussion last week, you know, you said, why are you short. our gains are in goldman i think the bank's going to miss again. it was obviously apparent as we watched the market with the high emerging business being down to virtually zero so i took out a position which hedged my downside so i'm basically neutral on the position, and it's working out i can stay short and stay hedged on it for a little while to come yet because i don't think it's going to get better, and we're not through bank earnings yet. >> you have a good amount of exposure here. >> yeah. >> concerned >> no, okay? i know i'm looking at you i know you're saying, i'm only seeing the good of it. listen, scott. i've been punched in the face every day this year, okay? i've got the negative. i promise you. i've got the negative. i see it i don't think the positives are being seen loan growth demand, it's picking up. >> i'm trying to think

bank which outperformed jpmorgan in almost every way. whatever you want to look at it, it outperformed jpmorgan now is the time to own it because the price to book level reached where it is. u.s. bank has been great, but i am getting out of that and now i own jpmorgan >> rob, you have been on the opposite side. >> we are. for banks, credit conditions are weakening. means more loan loss reserves. investment banks continue to struggle with issuance, investment grade down 15% year to date, high yield off 75%. year to date, ipo funds raised down 95% curve is flattening, two, ten, pressure only thing could be a positive is that the selling has been so extreme, it is oversold. where i agree with pete from a macro standpoint, at micro surgical standpoint, we maintain ownership in jpmorgan, wells fargo, in financials, blackstone we're pretty confident you can own names surgically and maybe not own the sector >> or jenny, not own the biggest of the big your take. >> so we own um kwa and new york community bank i learned a lesson in 2008, 2009, we

jpmorgan is going to be first on deck tomorrow morning.rt second quarter. they are expected to hit earnings per share of $2.88. that be a 24% year-over-year drop. the stock, as you can see , is under pressure as we move into the close down about 1%. want to bring in one of the top banking analysts in the nation. odion capital group financial strategist dick bove. i'm going to be doing earnings tomorrow morning so you have to hold my hand through this. let's talk about jpmorgan. obviously, it's not just the numbers from the bank. it's the commentary that we get from jamie dimon himself and i think the question mark is going to be, how his forecast is going to line up with the inflation report and also what he's going to say about the fed. what are you looking for? >> well, i think as you just clearly indicated, the earnings are going to be very light for jpmorgan in the quarter, unless they pull some accounting trick out of their hat but this quarter, you know, liz, to use a cliche, in other words, loan volume is up substantially, and it's

relatedly dimon has said he plans to be conservative as such, jpmorgan was the only major firm to addthey continue to do so again in q2? the firm is expected to say revenue diplomat thanks in part to a slump in fees they'll also look into how trading has translated into revenue and whether the volatility we have seen actually helped boost that top line, maybe even to offset a bit of the decline they saw in investment banking. >>> so let's put the question to c chris. >> nice to be with you again, ke kelly. i think they're both fine companies. i just don't want to be in this class at this time if there is a recession coming, i think that's probably more likely than not, we're in the early innings. you just don't want to own the finances having said that both of these companies beat tomorrow. if there's strength on the beats, i would be a seller on this. >> we talked in the past, chris about the home builders, where you thought maybe there was opportunity. why wouldn't the same approach apply to these banks at their valuation levels >> because they're just not as cheap as the homebuilde

obviously morgan stanley, jpmorgan are at the top of that list you buy them, hold on to them and make money as they recover the problem is that everybody is doing well everybody has no nonperformers, everybody has decent loan growth and the nonperformers are key. if nonperformers don't go up, the stocks won't go down to a point where actually you can build wealth owning them at the bottom so again, the money is made when there's blood in the water i'm hoping that we have blood in the water. i know that's not what you want to hear or what the market wants to hear, but that's what we need to get to to make these stocks attractive. >> rich, what was your takeaway from some of the bank earnings this morning as it relates to their performance, which is weaker again, and we do have that inverted yield curve and the broader market. >> sara, i think part of it is exactly what you said. it's a simple model of financial profitability and the better the margins on lending and activity. so that's not real good for the future of banking. number two, i would point out that if you're a devout monito

two big bank earnings reports, because it does kick off the large cap earnings season, jpmorgan chase shares, a component of the dow, by the way, off about 4.5%, a pretty decent drag on the dow after it comes out america's most valuable bank, by the way, with results on the profit and revenue side that were below estimates thanks in part due in large part to some provisions taken, reserving more money for bad loans down the line, weaker results in their investment banking division and ceo jamie dimon points out in some commentary that he thinks inflation and things like worsening consumer sentiment could be a headwind for the global economy so that's kind of taken some of the shine out of the market now. morgan stanley is off 1.25 as well it also missed on the top and the bottom line and investment banking operations there weaker than expected although trading for equities and bonds doing better morgan stanley, jpmorgan, that financials trade is not kicking off solidly for this earnings season we'll see how the rest do. >> it's a great overview, dom. thank you very much. >>> meantime,

the worst of the worst, jpmorgan, down 3.5%. and, listen, this happened after dropping quite the earnings grenade. yes, trading revenue was up 15%, but jpmorgan reported a worse than expected 28% drop in its second quarter profit and revenue from its investment bank business slid 61%. so they're saying there were fewer mergers and acquisition deals and that, of course, translates to lower fees. morgan stanley pulled up a chair, also reporting a double miss. its massive wealth management business busied bring in $5.7 billion, but down of % year-over-year. -- 6%. as we look at the number two punch, the freshest inflation number, the producer price index for june, an absolute barn burner. inflation and manufacturing level comes in hotter than expected at an annual rate of 11.3% which brings us to our number three the punch, another fed-induced market freakout after governor christopher waller, in a speech today in idaho, called yesterday's consumer price index number -- which was also crazy hot -- a, quote, major league disappointm

some interesting anomalies and details from jpmorgan and morgan stanley.urberry is currently down almost 5%. 76 points on the luxury clothes maker. despite coming out with a beat on their earnings. currently down 5% on that stock. the exposure to china and the import costs for richement. when it comes to -- look at that drop. almost 30%. they cut their outlook. deep concerns about the input costs from this company. the drinks maker down 30% on concerns about the cutting of the outlook for that company. consumers reigning in some of their spending. it is supply dhairns hitting this drinks maker. gio application. what's happening on the global stage, finance ministers and central bank governors from the g-20 are meeting in bali. haslanda. good morning. -- haslinda. good morning. good afternoon. what is on the agenda? >> you talk about inflation, tom. a lot has to do with surging commodities prices in particular, oil and of course food and that is causing a lot of damage to the international community. not surprising, food security is an issue. we just heard

jack: i want to go to the bath and body works downgrade, jpmorgan says look out, they've seen seasonalinter. i was looking at the website, stores are too perfume emacs for me to walk into but i see a lot of pumpkin scented candles, punk and peak on waffles, 2450 on sale for $14.50. vanilla pumpkin marshmallow, sweet cinnamon pumpkin. i'm initiating the carol melt pumpkin swirl, fourth of july week and no one is thinking about pumpkins. you turn them around on ebay closer to halloween and make 20%, no guarantees, you can thank me later. jack: i don't buy the pumpkin spice latte. on a more serious note let's go to actionable ideas, what is yours? andrew: target is down 40% this year, the company misjudged consumer demand and got stuck with too many inventory in stock has been hammered but looks like a washout, stock is around 140, treating 11 times next year's earnings, 1/3 of the price-earnings multiple. jack: they are making inventory mistakes. carleton: as i look at at&t yielding 5%, it is a defensive play. even in the downturn we won't turn off our cell phones. jack: thank you very m

it's standing up to black rock, goldman sachs, jpmorgan chase, morgan stanley, and wells fargo, some of the biggest firms in the world. joining me now was the man who made this determination, west virginia at treasurer riley more. when we had you on in january, at the time you noted other states were considering moves like this. will this be the start of a domino effect against the woke ceos. >> thank you so much for having me on. i do believe this is the first step because similar legislation that authorized me to do this has also passed in kentucky, oklahoma, tennessee, and texas. i have been in conversations with them and they are working on their lists like we have in west virginia, the restricted financial institutions list. this is the first step in this process. >> laura: jpmorgan responded to your move telling "the new york times" this decision was shortsighted and disconnected from the facts. the businesses are not in conflict with this anti-free market law. of the big banks obviously trying to pay lip service to conservatives and assuage her concerns about free markets, you

we also have morgan stanley and jpmorgan, suspending buybacks and building up reserves to prepare for bad loans. those names in the green last week, the biggest flaggers on the nasdaq 100 this week. software stocks down double digits. ecommerce select door dash, a firm an open door, seeing double-digit losses as well. he kind of feel this morning like you are eating the leftovers from yesterday. we are warming up this morning. >> we just got those comments from governor waller, another serving here, you see the dow, the nasdaq more on comments, you mention the growth complex, they have really been hit hard this weekend, the prospect of another rate hike, possibly even more, it almost felt like last year's recession fears may be easing some of those expectations for a larger hike, that is the prospect of a 75 basis point over a hike. >> you are right, tech has been responding quickly to any hope that rates come down a bit. i would argue the weakness got a kick start this week by now, by service now, and really not focused around rates by just macro weakness in europe, longer cycles, th

we hear from jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley before the opening bell it is thursday, july 14th, 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin and joe kernen becky will be with us later this week u.s. equities at this hour. >> one day left. >> we -- >> she comes in for the second half >> we have red on the screen dow is off 266 points. we have three and a half hours to go. let's show you treasury yields we have watched for the question of inversion we're still inverted 10-year treasury is 2.967% the to2-year treasury at $3.12. >> steeper let's get to liesman for the lies-maniacs price in a fed rate hike of 100 basis points we should call it one point, steve? steve liesman joins us now with more hey, steve >> one percentage point is the correct way to say it. i know you are a scientist at heart. >> might as well say that. >> right i'll say a full 100 basis point rate hike from the fed now priced in for the july meeting another 75 for september the markets think the cent

connell: even jpmorgan down a little bit today. goldman number as we said was a strong number versus expectations. we're trying to look under the hood a little bit to use your phrase. always good to see you, jonathan hoenig. >> do well. connell: when it comes to oil production, president biden traveling overseas really seemed to come home empty when it comes to saudi arabia, increasing oil production. we didn't hear anything about that how do midterm voters feel about the president's energy policies? we're live at the white house, up next. ♪ your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire like any family, matthe auburns all have...ion. individual priorities. some like strategic diversification. some like a little comfort, to balance out the risk. others want immediate gratification... and long-term gratification,too. they have their own interests, but at the

listen to the fodder from someone like jamie dimon from jpmorgan jpmorgan in terms of the hurricane coming. they will come out and beat earnings, they will. so we want to work what is really sticking with what is working in the market. mr. moynihan of bank of america, consumer strong, consumer strong. if you go out on weekend, anytime at night, they're all over the place, brother. charles: i'm with you, there is a disconnect. let me go with one last chart because i have less than a minute to go. the yellow line is the great financial market when the market completely cracked up. the blue line is what we've gone through right now. this is where we are right now. this is july. historically, maybe you go sideways. then maybe we went down. how important in summer, this market finds a way to rally or you have to throw in the towel on the tech cue lar bull market thesis? -- secular. >> great question. it is about earnings and employment. we don't think unemployment is going to spike and we think earnings will hold in there a lot better. the great financial crisis was two recessions hitting at th

jpmorgan has already settled and paid their fan., the rico act is being used, and that's great because maybe, just maybe they're going to have some accountability. the game is rigged, the rules are skewed, and maybe, just maybe, they'll make it fair. i hand it over to cheryl casone. cheryl: charles, thank you. yeah, there's a lot going on with these markets and a lot to watch on the regulation side but also with these numbers that we're tracking today. looked at what's happening here. we're sitting in rally mode ahead of tomorrow's june jobs report. we're at session highs right now. in fact, we're actually hitting session highs at exact session. dow up 323, that is a fresh high. s&p 500 and the nasdaq looking at four straight days of gains as oil bounces back from yesterday's dip into a crude bear market. oil actually kind

jpmorgan is topping, i believe it's nasdaq, brad? the nasdaq or the dow? jpmorgan up 5, and it is at the very pinnacle of the dow,,s and we should flip it over to retailers. retailers are getting a costarring role in the trading action at this hour. everyone from the discounters to the millennial favorites, to department stores are9 getting a push from an upside surprise in june retail sales and strong preliminary july consumer sentiment. retail sales seeing a 1% gain, that topped the eight-tenth expected, and then,nen x autos, a gain of 10.6. consumers still bellying up to the cash register because, you know what? sentiment is still holding strong. the july preliminary consumer sentiment report rose unexpectedly. look at it now, 51.1, up from 50 in june. that, by the way, was a record low are. so the consumer not collapsing, folks, even under the weight of 40-year-high inflation. does this mean recession fears are pulling a kiss appearing act? speak -- disappearing act? speaking today, st. louis fed president james bullard who, by the way, is advocating f

jpmorgan, allegedly duping public, put in buy orders, put them out, spoofing thing they call it.bout bear stearns, attitudes on wall street, and how for the most part they have gotten away with this, wall street players always been able to do almost anything they wanted and almost always walked away. the worse that ever happens is a fine. could that change now. >> this is fascinating and you're exactly right. the dramatics of this trial could change everything. we're seeing this trial probably takes five weeks as opposed to five days for twitter to put it into perspective but the jpmorgan fiasco has gone back for almost a decade. as we know they had to pay almost one billion dollars last year, about 920 million. charles: right. >> for jpmorgan that is really a drop in the bucket but the question how about individual liability? we have a couple folks on trial, these gentlemen are traders, know what they're doing, they are high up in the organization, the question was this a criminal conspiracy? can we implicate rico? are there other charges here? how much jail time could they get?

jpmorgan traded 1.2 times. that wasn't as interesting as what they were trading.une 2023, 75, we saw over 3700 of those trading. the reason that stuck out to mow because the level, the 75 strike is well out of the money. it's below the level we saw if march of 2020 if the early pandemic decline. all right. thanks, mike. for more tune in to the full show friday. coming up, it's been rough year for caterpillar shares. he will break it down. >>> today's growth stock probund a good sign? why you may want to think save. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. lemons. lemons, lemons, lemons. look how nice they are. the moment you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels. so you can go and see all those, lovely, lemony, lemons. ♪ and never wonder if you got a good deal. because you did. ♪ >>> welcome back to "fast money." the nsa nasdaq is back. our next guest warns the comeback is on borrowed time and believes the best place to invest is halfway around the world. dan, china is the only place you're constructive on. >> well, hey, m

earnings sn jpmorgan morgan stanley both reporting a double miss this morning take a look, jpmorgan shores major banks on the way tomorrow as well citi bank as well as bank of america rest of the week as well later on, and next week we will get technology stocks, reporting microsoft meta, amazon this month coming up, joining me right now piper sandler chief investment kantrowitz, jpmorgan taking market down 500 points with a we heard from jpm beginning of season. >> we are expecting, an increasing number of misses on pop line and bottom, this earnings season doing to see kwak last year and a half worth of rising interest rates rising oil prices, heck, rising everything that is starting to weigh on economy. and,s though market has done down seven months it takes a long time for all of that tightening the fed still tightening, to really show up and be reflected in the economy earnings and employment so first six months of this year stock market gone down because of rising rates over next 15 months we think market is going to continue, to struggling, and not going to be rising rates going to

. >> what do you mean jpmorgan chase? >> citigroup you saw that >> yup you are glass half full. >> yeah. i've been that way i don't know we all have 401(k)s. we all are long minded no one wants the markets to go to zero, obviously i try not to be pollyanna. >> doesn't it make it harder for jay powell >> i hope not. not with oil at 90 commodities rolled over. fly in the ointment. you are hitting it on the head 3.6% unemployment in a recession, it has never been seen before. that's why you worry about the wage people being able to demand more and that becomes stubborn. if commodities are rolling over -- >> you think powell is going to 75 that's what the journal is saying. >> we will have roger ferguson on in a little while before the quiet period, they were all indicating 75 >> if everything is going so great, maybe you need to >> we may have back-to-back negative gdp quarters. it is technical. it doesn't mean we're in a recession. i'm hoping that it is all said and done and the supply chain was -- i don't know. i'll use th

that mirrors what we saw with jpmorgan yesterday wells fargo ceo saying in today's earnings release thatfirm does expect credit losses to increase from, quote, incredibly low levels. but have yet to see meaningful deterioration in either its consumer or commercial portfolios guys >> leslie, you mentioned citi saying it was well pause share buybacks jpmorgan doing something similar, plaming the new credit standards saying they want to hustle and meet them with citi, did the bank characterize the decision in the same way or is it just about building a cushion >> yeah, it's a good question, mike as you mentioned, that was specifically asked of jamie dimon yesterday, whether the decision to pause buybacks was a rye flexion of his feeling about the economy or simply in response to the fed's newer calculation with regard to how much capital they need to be holding. he said it was the latter and provided a criticism of that less so with citi, although they did mention that, of course, they did need to pause buybacks as a result of the so-called stress capital buffer that the fed set for these b

jpmorgan chase increasing by a couple of billion. is 4% on the revenue side, it is quite positive in the near term, the danger and concern before we came into the result the fed raise rates too high and put the u.s. in recession. that would be negative >> to follow-up on that, i wasn't going ask about net interest margin, but the shape of the yield curve and how flat/inverted it is. is that a headwind for banks >> it is a watch of the potential recession coming up. banks are cautious and most increased provisions whereas last year, released reserves on the other hand, a lot of them are correlated to raising interest rates the more the fed raises rates, the more positive it is for income that is at the moment which is offsetting negative as we see with the fed being aggressive with the 75 basis point hikes. potentially talking about 100 basis point hikes at the next meeting. >> the issue is the weakness in the investment bank with jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley as well. what does the outlook look like for the rest of the year >> th

joining us is oksana aronov for fixed income at jpmorgan asset management what do you expect the fed'sere quite interesting, sara. we saw 90 mentions of the word inflation and zero mention of the word recession which is, of course, what's on everyone's minds these days the market is kind of swinging back and forth at least in rates. we saw quite a bit of a move today from an early morning rally now back into the high 29s. they will continue to choose inflation over growth and that is the name of the game and that's why i think investors have to continue to be focused on preservation here >> you're not buying into inflation has peaked and so have hawkish expectations from the fed? >> not at this time. there's expectation it will moderate and this magical thinking if the market thinks about it hard enough maybe it will happen. the components are stickier. we don't know where wages are going to come in we saw continuously very tight labor market picture with two vacancies for every one employee and so there are just very sticky components to the inflation figure and really no telling that

jpmorgan this morning saying that tesla could fall 40% on weaker deliveries they had price target andkay, so also remember that jpmorgan has been pretty bearish on tesla for a long time, and i would say probably an anomaly since we're looking at the 380 levels. stuart: 338 was very bearish. >> well in the 600s. stuart: that's a disaster. >> most people though still have closer to $1,000 price target for tesla. stuart: oh, they do okay, all right let's have a look at the tech stocks. i believe that some of the analysts out there are becoming less bullish on the big names on your screen right now. >> well, i would say barclays in particular and especially when it comes to social media and this has a tesla tie-in of course with twitter so barclays cutting their price predictions because of a perfect storm they say in the ad revenue space. especially for social media, so tik tok competition is going to takeaway some of that ad spending, global slowdown is taking place and barclays says meta is only worth 280 and only, that's still pretty good upside of 100% almost. stuart: yeah. >> alphab

jpmorgan says the risk of recession is uncomfortably high.ys she sees nothing in the data to indicate we are on the cusp of recession. this is the big money bet. what's your bet? where are we on the possibility of recession? >> look, i'm not that much more worried than i am normally -- >> what does that mean. >> -- but i don't have confidence in part because of the economic signals. in the first half it looked like gdp fell but jobs grew quite a lot. you have business leaders worrying we're going into recession. you have consumers saying they're negative about the economy. they're still spending money. it's marred to square a lot of these contradictory signals. >> it's possible. it's not clear. it's more likely than it normally is. the risks are much greater than they normally are. the idea that this is a foregone conclusion, even 50% chance, i don't see that. i'm looking for a cloudy rear-view mirror trying to get to what's going to happen ahead of us. >> fair. >> i want to ask you about something you've been tweeting quite a lot about, and

>> with respect to where we are economically, almost any outside lan list, jpmorgan, morgan stanley, bank of america, citigroup, jpmorgan, they have all in the last couple of weeks said nothing in the data right now is consistent with the economy being in recession. on the consumer side, we're absolutely seeing a transition and this is a transition that many called for and many anticipated in two respects. one shifting from spending on goods to services. people are getting out more, they're traveling more. that's why you're seeing hospitality, leisure, airlines with a lot of activity. and, second, people are shifting to focus on more discounted products. every individual company will have to deal with that. some companies that may be more opportunity or more risk for them. overall we're seeing a resilient consumer. household balance sheets have stayed strong during this period. >> the feds raised interest rates again. the fed admits it was too slow to act here to head off inflation. i wonder, are you concerned now that the fed -- and i know you don't like to dip into fed affairs but

and jpmorgan reiterating snap as overweight despite the brutal stretch for the stock saying the companyeds time to re-establish credibility let's bring in scott nations, nationshares president and cio to trade these names today first up, netflix. do you think it's gotten cheap enough, soucott, to binge on it here >> that is what really matters here i would be a buyer of netflix. congratulations to ubs figuring out subscriber growth is going to be a problem welcome to the party, pal. it has gapped down horribly the last two earnings announcements, but investors have overreacted the company went from doing no wrong to can't do anything right. and the changes that they're making, that is ending password sharing and the new ad-supported platform that we're going to launch that microsoft are going to help, pe now of 16. surprisingly netflix is quite a bargain and i'd be a buyer. >> we're starting to hear a lot more cautious bulls on that one. it's going to be interesting next week. what about microsoft >> you know, microsoft is the blue chip in the tech space. they do have some legitimate pr

jpmorgan is getting down close to book. these stocks are very cheap.credit situation is very good we may be going into a recession, but individual investors have very strong balance sheets corporate america is in very good shape i'm actually pretty bullish on the outlook for banks over the next 12 months. >> which one is your favorite? who looks the cheapest >> goldman at under book is such a spectacular franchise. trading revenue is spectacular investment banking revenue will be a little softer but trading revenue will be excellent. to value the company at less than the value of the securities that it holds just means you're giving no value to the franchise, which makes no sense. >> turning out to be a better close than certainly expected earlier. we're actually at session highs, down 157 on the dow. s&p 500 has gone positive, just, for the first time today it was sharply lower this morning. the nasdaq has been positive for much of the afternoon now. look at the comeback we've seen, down more than 740 at the low of the day. when i came in this morning

lauren: that's interesting because jpmorgan says a soft landing remains a possibility. but, yeah, of course, there's risk of recession in the back half of this year, perhaps early next year. likely happening in the fourth quarter of this year, but then what are the possibilities -- and they see this happening next september -- that we start to see the fed back off and start cutting rates starting with 25 basis points? >> i think it's quite possible and, indeed, that's why they shouldn't go 75 basis points at the end of this month. what's going to happen is the economy's going to cool down, and i actually want higher rates in the long run. i think it's a bad idea to have very low rates for a very long time. it destroys everything. they're never going to be able to get sustainably high rates if they push up rates too quickly, put the economy into a version. the futures market is saying the federal reserve is going to have to cut interest rates next year, and at the moment i tend to agree with that. lauren: yeah. we were just looking at the major averages. they're all down

jpmorgan back above the price that it lost after earnings yesterday.n express, goldman sachs, it's all about the banks today financials very strong in the session, they're rallying 3.5% citigroup the best of all of them it was the cheapest going in, really strong reaction to earnings, up 13.25%. every sector will go out with a gain on the day. the nasdaq up 1.75%. still declines on the week but the first up day for the week and it ends on a high note that's it for me into "overtime" with scott >>> all right, sara, thanks so much welcome, everybody, to "overtime. i'm scott apner. we're just getting started right here at post 9 at the new york stock exchange let's get right to our top of the tape today why stocks had such a strong session and what that might mean for where they could go from here a ton of big earnings are coming next week. let's ask tom lee. he's with me here at post 9. it's good to see you on a big day for stocks what was today about why did we rally was it about a good retail number but not too good?

jpmorgan chase is saying watch out, russia could retaliate and cut its oil production and oil could shoot90 a barrel. what are we wasting our money on with junkets overseas that go nowhere? >> look i think opec, they, if i biden gives them enough, i thought it was very interesting jake sullivan came out today accusing iran of supporting russia in ukraine. why did he do that? they're paving the way fora approachment with saudi arabia. they hope to be paid back increased oil. everything they have done has been so incredibly backwards and nonsensical, liz. i mean, it's depressing that we have right now for example, the epa threatening to impose ozone restrictions on the permian basin where 43% of our oil and gas comes from. what in the world are they thinking? this is political suicide for democrats. are they not talking to the white house? do they not know they're in trouble? it is amazing. >> got it, congressman, darrell issa liz peek, great to have you both on. come back soon. the first lady apologized after comparing latinos to breakfast tacos the day before president met with mexican le

morgan stand liley said 11% goldman raised by 25%, which i thought was pretty ambitious jpmorgan saide not raising at all they cited ongoing stringent capital requirements, which is part of the reason these stocks have held up so well relative to other places in the market and i think we'll continue to. the way we think of banks in the modern era is their utilities. they have some wherewithal to raise their payouts to shareholders whether it's dividends or through buybacks, more license to do so versus regulated utilities but not much more that's been a good thing for the banking system if you think about all the stuff we've been worried about this year, the banks have not been on that list. i think they're fine i think you can own them they should hold up. will they make a ton of money? probably not because the steepening yield curve was disrupted. i still think they're okay i think they'll be fine. >> we'll take a quick break. jon has unusual activity next. >>> "unusual activity," what do you have for us today? >> all right this will bring a smile back to josh's face, too, because s

i am not happy i am disappointed in the earnings from jpmorgan i don't like the suspension of a buybackderstand why jamie dimon and the team are doing that, but i don't like it. i don't feel good about it at all, and quite candidly, i'm going to be studying the regional bank earnings in the coming days because i think there's opportunity there, and i think from my perspective, i've missed out on what has been a significant outperformance from a lot of these companies like m&t, regents, cincinnati financial, but i'd be looking to get into one of these. >> that's the mayo play right now. coming into earnings, the play was main street over wall street in terms of financial institutions doing well at this particular moment. >> clearly being reflected in terms of performance loan growth is strong. now you're talking about nii, which is going to be strong as well i've missed the regional bank trade, not much longer i'm going to take a position in one of these soon enough. >> sarat, bank of america, morgan stanley, give me something on banks and the banks in general. >> look, i think a lot of

you heard it from jpmorgan. you heard it from everybody that they are slowing hiring. why everyone's pointing to apple suddenly saying oh, it is because of apple that the market turned around, i think that the market is just tired. they took it to a level. it hit some resistance. we're still concerned about where interest rates are going. we're still concerned about the conversation. we're still concerned about what earnings are going to show, what's happening to markets and what the other companies are going to start to say the rest of this week and next week. are we going to hear that same narrative about the slowing economy and people pulling back on hiring? i think we are. therefore, i think that's why -- i don't think it's apple specific by any stretch. >> liz: yeah, you know, i think that we start to see a pattern here, rc, that the banks have all kind of said the same or saying the same note, and that is, boy, investment banks and deals not so -- investment banking and deals not so exciting this week. there's also this belief that the fed is going to pass on a s

so jpmorgan chase and these other banks that we have listed clearly have prohibitions on lending to the fossil fuel industry. maybe perhaps they might do some business in oil, maybe they might do them in gas. but i'll give you an example. they do have direct prohibitions on lending to coal, which we are a coal state here in west virginia. we just happened to power the country, i guess not that big of a deal, but it is a very important resource here in the united states . so they have direct lending prohibition on all thermal coal in this country and any financing related to that. so i don't buy that argument. and secondarily, this is a free market solution. i am a market participant. i'm not a market regulator. and all we're asking for is for the free market to remain free , for these financial institutions to assess risk and capital and decide all their decisions based on those factors and not some political agenda. well, broadly speaking of coal, phil kerpen discovered buried in spend arama climate change bill that your senator joe manchin supports is going to make possible. included

tomorrow morning, that is one jenny harrington steven tusa well-known industrial analyst out of jpmorganwe recently cut our estimates to below the low end of the current guidance range and expect the company to cut expectations this quarter as raw materials persist, china headwinds were worse than expected, and operating leverage remains weak that sounds so optimistic into the number. >> sounds terrible and the worst part is -- >> is he going to be right >> the worst part is steve tusa is really smart. he was right on ge, he'll probably be right on this. if he is right on this, my investment thesis remains intact. >> which is what. >> it traded down from 200 and change to 140. when it was 140 i said i think they'll earn $10 a share in this report he puts out, i think he says they're going to come in below guidance and probably come inaround $10.35 share. then he says my worst-case scenario for next year is $9.76 a share. let's say they don't get to his worst case, and let's say they are at $10 a share you have a stock that's already been totally punished. they're going to earn $10. they

leslie, real quick on buybacks, and the stress tests, jpmorgan halted it but others haven't is there talk about at all or anything in terms of the stress tests that's having an impact on some but not others >> no, it's a good question. you see the banks that have the biggest commercial exposure are the ones being a bit more conservative here. so jpmorgan halted their buybacks, citi halted their buybacks, that was news last week today we see bank of america not so much. they did leave open the possibility and they actually said on their earnings call that they aren't against doing buybacks over the next few quarters so they didn't have that same kind of commentary they were much more just kind of tonality speaking, more senguin about the economic risks everyone else said the consumer is really strong right now but we're not sure what's ahead, so we're in this capital preservation mode. bank of america didn't give that same vibe, at least if you're kind of reading between the tea leaves of the executive comments on the call. analysts are pushing back on that. >> that's interesting. and

last month, jpmorgan jamie dimon said brace for an economic hurricane.ell, he just added a new warning. he's full of good news isn't he? we'll tell you what that is all about. let's take a look at the price of oil. it had been coming down and then started to creep back up. it is now at 98 bucks just under a hundred up another $3. how about this? tesla asking drivers in texas to avoid charging their cars during peak times. this is apparently to avoid over loading the national grid. you just don't drive anywhere i guess. a big show ahead congressman mike waltz, lawrence joan, tammy bruce, steve hilton, so many more. it is friday, july 15, 2022. "varney" & company is about to begin. >> good morning. this is bob bushell from tucson, arizona, and you're watching "varney" & company. good morning, good morning ♪ ashley: talking of arizona, there is a shot of phoenix this morning, a little hazy but good morning to you all, it is friday. we made it through another week. let's get right to it. let's get to that story about senator joe management saying he won't su

of the country's biggest companies to speak out against the decision, big names such as disney, jpmorgan and facebook owner meta have told staff they will cover employee travel expenses for abortions. on other subjects, companies are facing tricky balancing acts such as unilever�*s recent deal to continue selling ben & jerry's ice cream across israel, the west bank and east jerusalem. and sometimes, they are giving in to government demands, such as amazon restricting lgbtq search results in the united arab emirates. the company says it has to follow the law where it operates, but remains committed to diversity and inclusion. and there are plenty of other issues. where big could companies are having their say, but in doing so, it is not without risk, so why do they do it? well, a global survey by marketing giants edelman found that businesses were seen as one of the most effective agents for positive change, scoring higher than governments and the media. climate change, yes, it is the issue in which most people want businesses to do more for the benefit of society. then economic inequalit

bit below 2.77% between the two and the ten-year, big cap and big financials, always a big focus jpmorgan chase, bank of american, kind of holding pattern, if you will bank of america, kelly, up about 0.2 that's our pre-fed state of affairs. >> we have less than an hour steve liesman is standing by i always like to see what you're going to ask them, steve. right at this time, among those questions first, how does policy re react the futures d. a full percentage point by year end, but after peaking out at what you call it, 241, 243 right now, you can see fairly aggressive rate cuts are build in that would bring the funds rate down below 3%. how to put out yesterday it said the more the regard -- the let effective powellic ar that is easing financial conditions. so take a look at some of these forecasts. and still the outlier. moran stanley up l at least from these forecasts, that negative growth for the powell. we don't have a framework. we'll have to wait until powell has a better inflation >> i think we need to know how it -- and whether the market has it right >>> steve, thank you so mu

if you look at jpmorgan chase results, the chase business was strong yet, the investment banking business weak. we will see strong from bank of america, but goldman sachs will be challenged. >> if you look at the way this overall season is shaping up right now, even with the results on citi last week, wells fargo reported around that same time period and they have more of a mixed picture. we saw a trade developing there as well. a bullish move for that stock despite the mixed commentary there. is it an indication, david, this financials trade might have momentum going forward after talked about for such a long time >> yeah. i think it has been oversold here if you look at the super regional banks, they heare tradn 52% of s&p so what we see is good top line net interest income growth from that group we think that does performance lead through this week we are more positive on the regional banks m & t reporting on wednesday regions like 5/3rd will have liquidity on the balance street. >> reemg al regionals over the center david konrad, thank you. >>> let's get to the top stories with contes

major lenders jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley are due on thursday joumanna, i think the earnings this week will be interesting. you made this point last week when you came back after nine months away. youlooked at earnings expectation and said they don't look too pessimistic is that a positive sign? that is the perfect starting point for earnings >> the questions are the trajectory this will turn and from the profitability standpoint, it is interesting to see how it all comes out with the supply chain and potential recession fears plays into not just earnings now, but also the companies jutoutlets. >> the point of not too gloomy is a perfect starting point. we could be in for significant downgrades if companies come out warning and downgrading guidance, that could be a difficult back drop >> when has the market paid attention to valuations this year this is all like a whholistic mv and pull back for stock markets. it is a broad based selloff to the equity markets at this point. you have to think that looking ahead, the macro and what eventually ends up happening to the world growth pr

tomorrow delta on wednesday things kick in high gear on thursday with earnings from morgan stanley and jpmorgan then on friday the june retail sales and july c consec sentiment. >>> time to get random, but interesting on the markets we think this is really interesting. we may do something this year that has not happened in 50 years if ever. that is to have both stocks and government bonds go down in the same year. look at the data from charlie and compound capital going back to 1976, s&p dropped eight times. you can see that in those years when stocks fell the u.s. aggregate bond index has gone up that is a huge index fannie mae and bank debt which is widely bench marketed and followed and owned what this is saying is diversification is supposed to work bonds go down and stocks go up sometimes by double digits that mitigates the pain of the stock drop that's the idea. not this year. the first time in 50 years or maybe ever, the s&p 500 and many big bonds are down that bond index is down 10%. one of the biggest drops ever. meaning there's been almost nowhere to hide anywhere in the market likely