we have judy shelton to break down that.fed's qe program, i think more and more people are saying it is a colossal mistake but is it too late? is bitcoin's crystal ball, here is the range, it can go to 5000, or one million depending who you believe. we have the high priest of bitcoin himself, max kaiser, he will explain it all and more. we'll be right back. ♪ at adp, we understand business today looks nothing like it did yesterday. while it's more unpredictable, its possibilities are endless. from paying your people from anywhere to supporting your talent everywhere, we use data driven insights to design hr solutions and services to help businesses of all size work smarter today. so, they can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another ♪ (woman 1) i just switched to verizon business unlimited. it's just right for my little business. unlimited premium data. unlimited hotspot data. (woman 2) you know it's from the most reliable 5g network in america? (vo) when it comes to your business, not all bars are created eq

we have judy shelton is going to join us on the impact of u.s.zed rate hike stay tuned for that conversation in just a moment you're watching "squawk box" only on cnbc >>> coming up breaking economic data and then anti-defamation jonathan green blat joins usnd a how he sees combatting hate on twitter. stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back. gang, we need our paranormal services to be more versatile. i know a group who can help us. not those new age shamans again. i'm talking world-class business experts. data geeks, strategists, tax advisors, the works. what about technologists? 40,000 strong, baby. we'll be able to hit our projections both fiscal and astral. this company sounds great. what do you think, agnes? looks like it's unanimous. >>> welcome back to "squawk box. rick santoli here live on the cme hq and we have breaking news yes, trade balance for september coming in as 73.3 billion. of course, that is a deficit and it follows the slightly revised 65.7 and 73.3 is the smallest trade deficit, well, since last month it hasn't popped up m

for interest rates later today our next guest says there will be some pain ahead joining us now, judy sheltonllow at the independent institute. he's also the author of money meltdown, restoring order to the global currency system judy, it's good to have you with us i don't know whether we can -- whether we get any payoff from trying to discuss what jay powell is actually likely to say. i think we have a pretty good idea i would more like to get your comments on where the economy is right now. there are a lot of crosscurrents. this yield curve, i don't know whether this is still as relevant as it once was. but the 78 basis points, that's the biggest inversion since 1981, is the fed maybe looking at the wrong things in the economy to decide whether they've been effective in cutting demand already if they look at housing, they should be finished but if they look at other things, jobs, the consumer, maybe they're just getting started. what's real? >> well, i think the fed is hoping to see -- their goal would be to have rates so restrictive that we have a decline in economic growth they would like

judy shelton is one of the world through monetary experts. she was nominated by president trump to be on the federal reserve board which is where she deserved to be. she came within one vote in the senate and by the way we have mitt romney to thank for that for not having judy on the arfed but someday you should bethe federal reserve board chairman . [applause] >> so the kind of play off of what steve forbes just told us, where you think we need to go in terms of monetary policy . >> thank you very much and i think if you're asking should the federal reserve have the ability to manipulate the cost of capital that is really an essential question. because in a capitalist free market economy, i can't think of a more informed rice then the interest rate on loanable capital so if youwant one price to be determined by supply and demand , and accurate price goals you would think that would be the most important. but for reasons that david was explaining, since october 2008, when the federal reserve fundamentally changed the way it manages the intere

judy shelton mentioned the quantity theory of money. forget milton friedman, you know, all of these things are irrelevant as far as the fed is concerned. so what's happening now with the money supply? the money supply broadly measured by him to has not grown for the past six months. but the fed is flying blind. they don't look at the money supply. they don't literally know what the hell they are doing. and we will have one whopper of a recession next year because the money supply is not growing, okay, and it's even worse. they are engaged in quantitative tightening and it given us the game plan. we know how they're going to tighten and shrink the balance sheet at the fed. so my expectation is, now the commercial banks are producing enough money to just offset the quantitative tightening that is been started at the fed. if, if the commercial banks, they are lending by the way, and credit rates of growth of been going down, if that continues going down we're going to get into negative growth territory with the money supply and we will rea