julia: say that again. kevin: i don't want to. julia: one more time.imultaneously] the last time for the big new york-based made so much money, the financial world was going to the break of collapse. -- brink of collapse. what this might mean. ♪ julia: the biggest lenders --ing $30 billion from a few the surgeon profits comes from despite regulation with banks hurting the markets. joining us is the bloomberg banks reporter. it was a classic, this is proof the legislation process has not return of the ability to make money. >> $30 million of the top 10 lenders. the difference obviously, i think it would be obvious for our viewers, is the 2007 profits were fueled i trading. the 2017, largely fueled by lending. joe: the pie chart showing the 2007 versus now, that is the key difference. how much has trading dropped total for these banks over the last decade? numbers forat the 2009, the high in trading, to 2016 for the top nine banks, down 42%, so it was down more, it is started coming back. that is a pretty hefty drop. isia: the jpmorgan ceo always talking

julia: i'm julia chatterley.et: equities at record highs in the s&p 500. this is the intraday chart of the s&p, dow, and nasdaq, and the latter is the dow with the or -- lagger- lag is the dow with the yellow line. julia: still ahead, we'll president trump's financial policies hurt the u.s. long-term? we will discuss. this is bloomberg. so we need tablets installed... with the menu app ready to roll. in 12 weeks. yeah. ♪ ♪ the world of fast food is being changed by faster networks. ♪ ♪ data, applications, customer experience. ♪ ♪ which is why comcast business delivers consistent network performance and speed across all your locations. fast connections everywhere. that's how you outmaneuver. so new touch screens... and biometrics. in 574 branches. all done by... yesterday. ♪ ♪ banks aren't just undergoing a face lift. they're undergoing a transformation. a data fueled, security driven shift in applications and customer experience. which is why comcast business delivers consistent network performance and speed acro

julia? julia: you are always invited to the party.g its home on the public market. we will bring you the ceo live from the nasdaq next. from new york, this is bloomberg . ♪ scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. it is official that redfin has taken to the public market in and over $138 million ipo. the real estate broker saw insurance pot more than 30% at the start of trading, opening close to $20, well above the opening price of $15. posting a valuation of 1.2 billion dollars. we will send it to emily chang in san francisco who is sitting by with redfin's ceo. is joining me from the nasdaq in new york. it you've got to like that pop this morning. it's an industry right for destruction -- disruption. for a long time, we had public company investors, but there were unicorn valuations in the private market. and thed for liquidity public markets are just ready to be the most efficient marketplace for us. emily: if there is another housing crisis type of event, how does your business sustain itself? we will keep on taking shares. i know it w

julia: tv on your terminal.. ♪ ♪ scarlet: it is time for the bloomberg business flash, we look at the business stories in the news right now. boeing at a yearly high. the aerospace giant raising its profit forecast, channeled billions of dollars back to shareholders. they squeezed more cash out of its 787 program. they will spend some of its cash haul on dividends and buybacks. president trump's military transgender ban facing opposition from several tech leaders. tim cook tweeted his response saying, we are indebted to all who serve. discrimination against anyone keeps everyone back. mark zuckerberg and others tweeted their disappointment. claims -- claims says it will cause too much disruption. continued strength in mobile video advertising. sheryl sandberg spoke with bloomberg about her new mission of the company. >> i am really excited about the new mission. i think it is what we have been doing and will have an increase building community. we see it with the groups. i thought with the work i did to form gro

julia: thanks, taylor.wing you live shots of the white house press briefing room, we will be getting a briefing at 2:00 p.m. eastern by sarah huckabee sanders with breaking news today, sean spicer is stepping down and a new the committeead geisha strategy at the white house, and the scaramucci. we know him, washington, perhaps less so. kevin: i think they're going to get to know him. there's a lot of other things happening inside the beltway. earlier today on bloomberg markets, i spoke with democratic senator ron wyden, the ranking member on the senate finance committee we gave me his take on the growing russia probe and warned that firing the special counsel could spark a constitutional crisis. >> i certainly think they should. that was one of the areas i pushed for an hour agreement early on, we needed open hearings and we needed to use the subpoena power and the ability to declassify documents. it's critical that they appear. kevin: there's been some reporting from bloomberg that special counselor robert

julia: and i'm julia chatterley.: banks are about to takeaway the punch bowl of stimulus, and the bridgewater associates calling an end of the central bank era. they keep dancing, but closer to the exit with a sharp eye on everything. top-ranked is economist at hyman -- ed hyman from evercore isi. even though the fed is talking about reducing its balance sheet, the averages are still seeing the line move higher. it is pretty stunning. how does that change how you position yourself, and how investors should? money is for that free. they do deals all the time. andnch of deals today, rates and bond yields are at about 50, 60 basis points. the two-year is -50 or something. might -- bojnd doj might extend the balance sheet, but when they start to reduce that, it is easy monetary policy. one of my dear friends will have a good, long dance here. [laughter] i wanted to ask you about complacency in the markets as well. it ties back into the central bank story in this. they were suggesting that perhaps they were trying to eat

julia: you know what happened?ent talking about policy in washington rather than mentioning the r word. joe: a record. coming up, amazon prime day wrapped up in the early morning hours, and according to our next guest, they may have raked in $1 billion. we will talk about is extraordinaire day for amazon, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ julia: "what'd you miss?" stoplight in the wake of a successful prime day for amazon. while amazon is not releasing exact figures, it is estimated the 30 hour sale generated about $1 billion in revenue. joe: joining us now is john, senior internet retail analyst and managing director. prime day has become this thing that amazon conjured out of nowhere. explained to us how important this day has become to the company. john: pretty important. they debuted in 2015, so this is the third year of it. the biggest day in sales they have had was yesterday. they did about $1 billion in revenue i. $2.5 billion in gross volume, with was a pretty fast growth for them for the small businesses selling

julia: i'm julia chatterley.mberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. costco shares are up today after reporting june sales far outpaced expectations. according to analysts, the membership model and fees which make up 75% of annual profits, show the retailer can coexist with competitors like walmart and amazon. some 3000is cutting jobs mostly in sales and outside the u.s. global news 24 hours a cloud software. a company spokesperson said workers were being notified today. recruiting business is booming, tripling to $22 billion in 2016 from seven years ago. this according to american starting association estimates. a 16 year low on employment rates and record high job openings has workers changing jobs more and therefore benefiting. according to the federal reserve of atlanta, job switches with salaries were 4% higher within a year. that is your business flash update. scarlet: trade will be a big flash point at the g-20 summit this week. earlier this week, we spoke

julia: julia thanks so thanks s, mark. the house and senate moving.ad on tax reform law next guest once to not look forward to a reagan era game changer. they could provide a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity ,. nicholas birther is with us now to talk about's how he is advising his clients. great to have you on the show. let me start with the statement we got from the big six on the plans for tax reform. how optimistic are you in light of that? nicholas: i don't know if optimism is the right answer, but if you compare it to the trump proposals, which were six paragraphs on a campaign website read the and you big sixes manifesto, it made the trump manifesto seem like tedious. julia: a lack of optimism in a decided manner. talk about what we can achieve this year. what are you saying to your clients that can be achieved? comprehensive tax reform is not a possible the here, but they could try to push tax cuts from earlier because they need a win here. nicholas: there's the known and unknown. marginal tax rates will probably go down to 33% and brackets will

julia: i'm julia chatterley.d i'm scarlet fu. welcome to "bloomberg markets." ♪ we are live in bloomberg world headquarters in new york, over the next hour, here are the top stories we're covering on the bloomberg and around the world. clock tickinghe for republicans to unite on a plan to repeal and replace obamacare. two republican senators are already known for the latest revised senate health care bill. and, syrian cease-fire in focus at donald trump's press conference with president macron in paris. and, a corporate news, slams on the brakes in russia. the ridesharing company is merging its operations there, marking its second major global retreat. we are one hour from the close of trading great let's get a check with julie. have stocks rallying, a modest rally but secondary rally during the second day of janet yellen's testimony, her comments yesterday were widely though theyish even didn't really seem on the surface at least to deviate from what she said before. we have ppi down and traders are watching clo

julia: "what'd you miss?"ntel reported second-quarter earnings, bucking the industry's decline. -- a gain of 9%. the company gave an upbeat forecast for the third quarter and annual revenues, too. i want to hand over to caroline who is in london and standing by -- intel's's cfo cfo. >> credit where credit is due, well done. let's get nitty-gritty. talk to me about pc numbers because your numbers showing a 12% increase. this is a declining market, no? bob: it is a declining market and we have outstanding performance. and introduction of new products we are very excited about. in a declining market, what we have found is simply performance cells. products are increasingly demanded by both and enterprises alike. that is what really drove an outstanding performance from our pc business in the quarter. caroline: is there concern, potentially, about inventory building up? are is something analysts now floating. are we seeing matt? bob: as we look into the second half of the year, we characterize the inventory levels

julia? julia: let's begin with that big bloomberg skip today. robert mueller, the u.s. special counsel, is said to be expanding his investigation to look into president donald trump's financial dealings. his new approach to the probe could trigger a response from the president, who told the new york times that any digging into matters beyond russia would be out of bounds. however, we have been hearing from lawmakers on capitol hill today. just listen into what democratic senator amy klobuchar said earlier. >> mueller has the right to investigate this. he was given that authority by the justice department, and he reports to the justice department, and not to the president of the united states. julia: joining us now, one of the reporters who broke this story. great to have you on the show. you called it a follow the money investigation. to what extent really is this now about russia, and to what extent is this about other dealings that donald trump has had? >> the whole thing is about russia. this portion of it, though, deals more with trump's business dealings and capita

julia: i am julia chatterly. it is time for the bloomberg business flash.gship should be contingent on its 20 claim $8.7 billion deal with everett. that is according to people familiar with the matter who says they are struggling to secure orders by november. more potential sales could be in jeopardy. medical websites web m.d. has agreed to sell its side -- sell itself. that represents a 20% premium. web m.d. is used by 75 million customers. that is your business flash update. growingor more on kkr's investments, we're joined by melissa. let us start from what m.d.'s -- web ms's perspective. >> it has a volatile history. wet md went public in 2005 -- md went public in 2005 and tried to find a buyer in 2012. in march, the activist hedge fund tried to get involved in push for a potential sale. [no audio] julia: it is not the only health care acquisition. the portfolio does not just focus on health. a health careis and tech deal wrapped into one. on one hand, it is playing into the health and wellness trends. people are trying to take more ownership of their h

this is bloomberg. ♪ julia: "what'd you miss?" today, jared kushner, president trump's son-in-law and senior adviser face questions from congress. >> i did not collude with russia nor do i know anyone else in the campaign who did so. i had no improper contacts. i have not relied on russian funds for my businesses and i have been fully transparent in providing all requested information. julia: here with the latest is kevin whitelaw. he covers congressional coverage. , --atch in speaking there him speaking there, where do we go from here? there is no presumption he is telling the whole truth, it is said. kushner isow jared going to go back to capitol hill tomorrow morning for another close the door meeting with the house intelligence committee, certainly with the staffers and lawmakers. a number of senators, particularly democrats have said they do want to see him in public. the statement he made today raises more questions than it answers. democrats will not be satisfied until he per peers -- until he appears in public. are that th

julia: are you sold it $200?ing to get it and do the 3-d thing. >> i think it could be a cool gizmo as a gift or on an airplane. am to be wearing around the office? i wouldn't be caught doing that? typically in san francisco, here in new york for the day, thank you so much. coming up, the vix is at multiyear lows. many wondering what has happened to market volatility. we dissect the problem with charts, of course. this is bloomberg. ♪ with the vix volatility index, just about 10, hovering near record lows, one of the hot topics has been what happened to volatility, and where is it, if anywhere? great question. where is the volatility? here to dissect some charts, dan is a chartered market technician. 17 years of market experience. thanks for joining us. we have a chart which is the vix on the nasdaq 100 to the s&p 500 . can you talk to us about why this might tell us where volatility is? >> will be can see is the vix of the nasdaq 100 has spiked relative to the s&p 500. the simple answer, the volatility has showe

julia? thea: we began with investigations into possible collusion with the trump junior releasing a string of him else with a russian lawyer that she has potentially damaging information on hillary clinton. lindsey graham and mark warner have to say on the subject here a. >> any time you get an offer for information from a foreign -- the answer is no. i don't know what mr. trump --ior viewpoints are whites is clear black and evidence of that there was a -- at least based on the mail -- a russian government effort that the trump campaign welcomed to try to discredit hillary clinton. >> joining us now is our white house correspondent. shannon, thank you for joining us. if feels like a bombshell here, obviously the reactions are pretty stringent. tell us why this is so critical at the moment and perhaps link it to the russian government here, too. and i guess intent on the part of donald trump junior and jared kushner as well on this email to intervene in the election process. >> as viewpoints

julia: i'm julia chatterley.g companies shares slumped 14% after a warning about quarterly losses of as much as 1.8 billion dollars. noble group had less than zero value according to one short seller. earlier.o him i asked him if there is any value in this company remaining after the restructuring and selloffs discussed by the company in the last 48 hours. to be fair,not, but i have not tried to model out the cash flow or really do analysis on this company. what i said previously was that i suspect a more sober look at agreements and other contracts would yield a value below zero. -- wethink the company ing up tong toward tru that, but i don't know if we will ever true up to that level. at the end of the day, liquidity is going to determine how long this company survives. julia: jpmorgan has $1.5 billion of debt coming to you over the next year. systemice this as a issue, potentially? you have looked at all lamb, noble group. , noble group. somebody owns those funds. do you see the potential for a follow here?mic

this is bloomberg. ♪ julia: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm julia chatterley.dity markets are closing in new york. oil getting hit hard today, snapping an eight day winning streak. we are closing at the lows of the session, down 4.2% at this moment. russia is set to oppose any proposal to deepen opec led production cuts. we will get more data tomorrow when the u.s. releases its latest inventory report. natural gas futures led to a that isth low today -- driving down demand for powerplant fuel. .75%.ome thre no clear direction for gold futures, despite the tension over the north korean missile test. yenks rising and the slipping for now. scarlet: a major shift for volvo. the swedish automaker is now owned by a chinese billionaire -- every new model launched in 2019 and beyond will have an electric motor. tesla says deliveries have flat lined this quarter -- joining us with coverage on both of these stories from detroit is jamie butters. let's start with what's going on with volvo. shift to hybrid and electric cars, there will be some compromise when it comes to

julia: this is bloomberg. [laughter] ♪ julia: i'm julia chatterley. what did you miss? of you out there concerned about inflation and whng about disinflationary trends, there is another point here for you to watch. more business activity. cpi.lue line here is u.s. it is a national federation of independent businesses reading of how many businesses are actually raising average selling prices. that is down as you can see from the price of the chart there. obviously, the contours of that appearing to lead the cpi numbers here. they are also giving wage increases. the 24 net percent down 28%. seeingn line what we're in these small and medium-size enterprises. it's a great chart and feeds nicely to my chart which is part of the same overall puzzle. i am also drawn from this morning's data. this blue line is from the nfib. it the number of small businesses that are filling job openings is the big problem. the blue line is going up. the number one problem is openings. rate inht line is the the manufacturing industry. a percentage of employees that quit every month, typically c

julia? thank you. coming up, earning season kicks off with a growing chorus of voices including janet yellen. is bloomberg. -- this is bloomberg. ♪ john: this is bloomberg markets. earnings investors -- roll out this week. they're also looking to janet yellen's semiannual testimony to congress, starting wednesday. here to discuss this is the bloombergtegist for intelligence. great to see you. earnings are projected to rise. the question is, will valuations and this is expand? >> so far so good this year. valuations are well above long-term averages, and s&p 500 -- forward earnings valuation of about 17.5 -- forward earnings -- it's about 15.5, a long-term average. think we are looking at that are earnings ahead. investors can get confirmation -- that they continue to rise in the quarters ahead, especially in the first half of 2018. comparisons will get a lot harder. that's in the first half of 2018 -- things are looking up, better. you'll feel more confident. that's i think is enough to keep investors

julia: live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i am julia chatterley. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. we are 30 minutes from the close of trading in the u.s. the question is, what'd you miss? special counsel robert mueller's investigation widens beyond the trump campaign to examine russian purchases of apartments and the miss universe pageant. mario draghi stressed the need to be persistent and patient in winding back stimulus. slow and steady i.t. spending. that is what we are expecting from microsoft quarterly earnings. paypal and ebay also announce results after the bell. thea: let's get a look at major averages, down as we head toward the close. abigail doolittle is standing by. abigail: the moves may be small, but we are looking at records for the s&p 500, the nasdaq, and even the dow. second on pace for a record closing high in a row. the dow transports on the bottom down at about .8%. clearly, the odd index out about four days in a row. let's take a look at the intraday chart in the bloomberg. compositethe nasdaq index, up a

. ♪ julia: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm julia chatterley.carlet: i'm scarlet fu. joe: i'm joe weisenthal, 30 minutes from close of trading. data later this week, and all eyes on the white house once again. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" anthony scaramucci has been removed as communications director. the u.s. dollar falling under hard times. we look atbetting -- how losses pile up amid political turmoil. the world's most valuable company by market cap reports earnings tomorrow after the bell. investors are looking to pass we guidance and the longer term upside for apple's new iphone. miss? what'd you anthony scaramucci's brief tenure, president trump removed -- let's bring in our white house correspondent. and joining us, congressional .eporter in the d.c. bureau it is the shortest length of time that someone was in role of communications at the white house? nothing is regular in this administration. >> it is certainly high drama. but retired general john kelly's first job on chief of staff, he seems to have decided a little bit of

julia: and i'm julia chatterley from washington.rspective on the debate over health care and the failure of senate republicans to get a new bill. president trump exposing his frustration over the impasse. failrump: let obamacare and i think we are in that decision where we will let obamacare fail. we are not going to own it. the republicans are not going to own it. we will let obamacare fail and the democrats will come to us and say how do we fix it or how do we come up with a new plan? mike: joining us now is kelly of pennsylvania, a member of the house ways and means committee. he voted in favor of the house plan to repeal and replace obamacare. a huge blow to the gop today and its failure to agree on health care bill. do you believe mitch mcconnell can pull together the notes were a straight repeal and do it in the coming weeks? guest: we are going to find out but i think the disappointment is across america right now. folks whothe same voted to repeal obamacare and all of a sudden, they have lost their way. if you take a vote th

julia: and i'm julia chatterley. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. and japanese automakers posting better-than-expected results in june following five months of declines. trucks were the big sellers. general motors missed estimates, calling 4.7%. it is selling its organic yogurt brand for $875 million. by sale is required antitrust authorities. walmart is upgrading its beef to angus. the high-quality meat is available at stores across the united states at no additional cost to consumers. the move aims to help the retailer better compete. it last upgraded its beef in 2011. lots of food going on, making me hungry. scarlet: it is around lunchtime. it is time for deep dives. i am looking at the brexit barometer. it has fallen to the lowest level since the day following the referendum. this is a custom index designed to show the impact of the separation process on the u.k. made up of indicators from employment, inflation, growth, and uncertainty. there is plenty of uncertainty now. the lower the number, the weaker the perception of the economy. september

julia: time for bloomberg business flash. delivered a strong second quarter thanks to higher prices and fees. the company reported revenue for packages sent in the u.s. at 2%. closingany said retailers means less deliveries between businesses. 350 benchmark for $ trillion of products will be phased out by the end of 2021. british regulators and banks are trying to replace it with a more reliable system. it became about spyware from corruption after some were caught trying to manipulate it. that is your business bloomberg flash. there we go. scarlet: that's go on to the final part of the trade. it is amazon. it has been a pretty volatile day for shares of amazon. it has been as up as 2.9% this morning. briefly making jeff bezos the more -- the world's richest person but then it has lost its way. what are investors looking for in the upcoming earnings report? here is abigail doolittle. it is a pretty ugly day.sal on the people would say that is a bearish omen of what would come. expectations are definitely high. day. people wou

julia: thank you.news headlines from an interview that president trump has done with the christian broadcasting network. it will air tomorrow. donald trump saying the syrian cease-fire is an example of success with russia. he said that vladimir putin would rather have had hillary is ann than me, which interesting, to make in light of a lot of the sentiment towards the back end of last year around the election. he's of the senate majority leader, mitch mcconnell, has got to pull it off on health care -- he said mitch mcconnell has got to pull it off on health care. these are highlights from that interview. let's bring in our political reporter here. obviously, health care is very much on the agenda. mitch mcconnell hoping to produce the latest version of the bill tomorrow. i wonder how the alternative versions are underway at the moment. which version of this bill is mitch mcconnell hoping people will vote on next week? >> look, mcconnell is certainly hoping for the republican repeal and replace tilde p

julia: "what'd you miss?" a bloomberg survey of fund managers and strategists suggests a market correction could combine late 2018 and the damage could be massive. joining us now is dani burger who cowrote a article on this subject. talk to me about this survey. bull market? the not a lot of agreement. there was a lot of pessimism, which means perhaps now is time to be optimistic. the bull market stopping for stocks and bonds in late 2018, and overwhelmingly, central banks and fed where the number one concern, moving too soon, the tightening will be messy because they have been loosening somewhat coordinated, then we look at europe, the u.k., this bullish-bearish back-and-forth that has made moving forward with central policy challenging. the you write about travails of the cross asset investor when everything moves in the same direction once. they see all the bull market sending at the same time. in a downturn, no place to hide. >> exactly. and they see a recession coming next year. one thing interesting to p

julia: "what'd you miss?"global tensions as north korea launched a paradigm changing missile. the un security council is meeting right now, and here with formerelliott abrams, deputy national security adviser under resident george w. bush and now senior fellow at the council of foreign relations. he joins us now from washington. the difference in what we heard from the u.s. passenger to the united nations today was they are threatening to shut off trade with countries that trade with north korea, a.k.a. china. do you think that is the right way to bring china to the table and do something greater about the north korean threat? >> basically, yes. the chinese have talked a good game for a long time, but have put little serious economic pressure on north korea. we will have to make them pay a price for them to do it, otherwise nothing will happen. the trump administration about a week ago sanctioned one bank, one chinese bank. that is the kind of thing you do, but you have to do it more, and try to change how the

julia: i feel like it is a soft know.e got a bit of time before the canceled -- before the recess effectively kicks in. of timehink that amount and negotiating is going to be enough, when you look at what of the three are saying what they are still not happy with? do you think mcconnell and somehow tile those things together? i guess what i'm asking, are we closer as a result of this edit? kevin: we are marginally closer, in that we had several republicans who said they were going to vote no on even the who have nowtion said they will go ahead and support that, even if they are not ready to support the underlying measure. it certainly does not get you there yet. some of the objections are substantial and not easily overcome. it's not the kind of thing where you throw money here and there and everyone goes away happy. you were talking about changes to the health care system at a potentially very enduring and significant for states. you are looking at a lot less money going into the system overtime. for states with governor

julia: thanks, abigail. what'd you miss?resident trump is in hamburg, germany, for the historic g20 meeting beginning tomorrow could for the first time, the united states is not the global leader in trade or climate change, spaces that germany and china are trying to fill. bremmer, who ian wrote the book about this, "every nation for itself." glike?u ever felt less ian: gee whiz. some timeobvious for that america was moving away from leadership but it came faster than i expected because of the election of president trump. it was coming, would have been more incremental -- china was creating an alternative model to the u.s.-led economic system, ,he transatlantic relationships brexit happening. but then you had america first. the republican base is still very much with trump, but internationally, america first doesn't play well. the firstrump for time sitting around is the cable with 19 other leaders from the world's most important economies, and most of them don't trust and don't like the leader of the world's only superpower

julia: i very much doubt it.what we know about donald trump during the campaign, he was very involved micromanaging, especially when it came to smearing his opponents and knowing which attack was made when. charlie: thank you for joining us. good reporting. see you next time. ♪ whoooo. i enjoy the fresher things in life. fresh towels. fresh soaps. and of course, tripadvisor's freshest, lowest prices. so if you're anything like me... ...you'll want to check tripadvisor. we now instantly compare prices from over 200 booking sites... ...to find you the lowest price... ...on the hotel you want. go on, try something fresh. tripadvisor. the latest reviews. the lowest prices. washington. you are watching "bloomberg technology." let's start with a check on your first word news. president trump says the republican party should let obamacare fail, after senate gop leaders failed to gather potential votes necessary to pass the bill. trump says allowing obamacare to collapse would force democrats to the negotiating table. ma

julia: good point.t about valuations as well, he says that the overall direction of the market is up until we reach a point of extreme euphoria and we are away from that point. that's in contrast to what a number of people are telling us now. we are using the bubble word. in a definite minority. everybody i talk to seems to think stocks are very stretched, but he really focuses on this notion of euphoria, the people really have to start to love stocks before you should start to hate them. there is still a lot of skepticism, and i think he sees it as a plus for stocks. scarlet: give us some more context here, because it's him and his investing earner so now the macklemore who work together to pick these kind of companies, right? charles: exactly right. they been together quite a long time. to me the most interesting thing about bill miller is -- i once wrote a story about him and my lead was something like bill miller is never average. the 50thr in percentile. he's either at the very bottom or the very t

julia: what about the offset? are some savers, so what impact do we see feeding into a savings account rates? if we look at the net effects, what is the fed watching in terms of a financial condition? they have been talking for a long time about the fact if they raise rates, conditions have not tightened. talk about the net effect. basically youates have a situation where we have a glut of savings, so the banks do not have the need to compete for deposits. we have seen certificates of deposit go up a little bit and those are for people who are really shopping around and looking for the best deal. but the actual rates that chaise and bank of america have you are looking at .03%. scarlet: you set the scene, how is it likely to change with the fed continuing a policy of raising rates at a very gradual pace? ben: i think it is hard to say. i think things could start to change if an american consumers really start moving money around. if they start to notice how little they are getting from the big banks and they start

this is bloomberg. ♪ julia: this is bloomberg markets. i'm julia chatterley.'s time for options inside. julie? my guest is from macro risk advisors. we will be talking energy and oil, which sort of made a brief attempt to get is head above water this week and came right back down again. you have been a rare on the options segment. i'm guessing nothing changes your view about the direction of oil going down? >> we viewed the price rally exiting last week and this week as an opportunity to reengage in selling strategies. beenhesis year to date has oil and the rates market are encased in what we call a negative feedback loop. in order for the markets to correct the oil market you need to constrain access to capital. as oil continues to go down, it's pressuring cpi and making it tough for the fed to make its dual mandate. so, that negative feedback loop perpetuates and continues to pressure the markets. until we see that assert itself, arguably with commodities in the this vicious think cycle will play out and they will remain bearish. julie: i'm curious. even as

julia: it is trading at a five-year high at this point.his outlines their next five years -- what do you want to hear from the managers? this is one of the reasons why you upgraded them to outperform, the management control here. what do you want from them? >> i want to hear more about continuous improvement from adding software onto their products to improve productivity and try to drive caterpillar's operating margins. the operating margins have averaged 8-10%. when you look at the best industrial companies on the planet, they are in the high to mid 20% range. julia: what would you consider caterpillar's peer at this point? >> they are trying to look more and more like a ge than a ge is the direction they want to move in. scarlet: joel tiss, thank you so much. julia: we will show you live pictures of the senate floor, the procedural vote expected to start in a few minutes time. we will bring you that s and as it begins. for now, we will wait and see what happens with that vote. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: we are looking

julia: we have seen a real disconnect.wed through, neither hiring, nor consumer spending. if tom: bring up this chart. this is a really cool chart. it is not an official chart. this is wage growth minus service sector inflation. not good producing. happening, julia. will we see wage growth and today's report. julia: when we are learning is that the labor market, despite the unemployment rate being low by historical standards, maybe there is more slack. maybe the natural rate of unemployment starts with a three a set of a four. even in sectors doing very well, like construction and manufacturing, there is not upward pressure on wages. skillsw, there are some issues and mismatches, but we can see higher wages if we let the labor market go. it would be cool if we could do back-to-back charts. [laughter] tom: let's go to the bloomberg terminal. is what dr. coronado is talking about, the natural rate of unemployment. you will explain this in a moment. down we go. 10% down to 4%. 3.5% down there. what is that not rate of unemplo

julia: what drives that?usly, even the slightest momentum shift would cause people to suddenly flee for the door. we have not seen that, and maybe will not next quarter. they are doing great. but think of the people competing with them. even facebook is producing content. youtube is moving in that direction. hulu is doing better. amazon, the company nobody wants to compete with, is the toughest competitor. that is a tough position. it is nothing like a monopoly facebook or google has. other breakinge news from tesla, adding new executives from major media companies as directors. investors have been pressuring elon musk to diversify the board with members who are not linked to the ceo. who they have added -- james murdoch, who heads up 21st century fox, rupert murdoch's son, and linda rice, of johnson publishing company. both will be joining the board. david kirkpatrick, you look at the tech world. tesla is a tech company. does this loosen elon musk's grip? eva: no, he has 100% grip. we are talking about tesla

julia: i very much doubt it.rump was very involved in micro-managing, especially when ng opponentssmeari and keeping track of which attacks are made when against what opponents. charlie: thank you for joining us. see you next time. ♪ betty: asia-pacific markets set for a mixed start. investors are weighing the growth, the dollar at an 11 month low, gold at a new high. sachs and bank of america showing weakness in their bread-and-butter operations. betty: health care hits the brakes on capitol hill. the repeal plan sunk just 24 hours after being launched. yvonne: the bank of japan starts a two-day policy meeting. southerly week inflation

julia: great to get you on the show. thank you for your time. vonnie? julia chatterley, thank you.g up tomorrow, we will bring you interviews with top banking executives. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ vonnie: it is noon in london and midnight in hong kong. i'm vonnie quinn. welcome to "bloomberg markets." ♪ vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, here are the top stories from around the world that we are following this hour. inpite political turmoil washington, d.c., u.s. stocks are rising tides. facebook is rallying on the busiest day of earnings. deutsche bank's revenue was the weakest in three years. ceo john cryan wanted to get better, but warning it will get worse. we hear from him this hour. plus, new york city, your chariot awaits. bus service launches in the city. has to see what the ceo say later on. julie hyman is with us. halfway into the trading day and a lot of earnings i guess. julie: the digestion has been a good one, atlet

this is bloomberg. ♪ julia: i'm julia chatterley. what did you miss?ike looking at the bond markets in the last couple of weeks. the blue line issuing the 210 year spread. if you look on the right-hand side of your screen, you see that tiny flick higher which is what we have seen, it and it has lifted the financials. take a step back and look at the white line and what that is showing you is positioning. it shows you 10 year positioning. what that is saying as far as positioning is concerned, the lower that line comes, the less likely we are to be steepening. this is suggesting flatter curves, not steeper. and i am looking at investor positioning in gold. this is aggregate positioning. shooting up at the same time as gold itself, the blue line doing very ugly these days. higher rates, all that stuff is but anyprecious metals sort of repricing, perhaps the central banks are not going to be as dovish. was.: how low gold next, we talked to about the market close. less than 10 minutes before the markets wrap up. stay with us. we will be discussing next. th

julia: thanks so much.e senate is expected to vote in minutes on mitch mcconnell's proposal for a straight repeal of obamacare. what investors need to know as washington tries to move forward with its policy agenda, next. scarlet: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ mark: it is time for first word news. illinois democratic senator tammy duckworth a double amputee veteran of the iraq war is flaming president trump's ban on transgender americans serving in the military. she said in a statement when her helicopter was shot down, she did not care "if the americans risking their lives to save me were gay, straight, transgender or anything else. all that mattered was they did not leave me behind." an arizona republican, john mccain, his story of torture and survival as a prisoner of war in vietnam has come to define heroism, released a statement slamming the president, saying his tweets were unclear and "any american that meets current medical in readiness standards should be allowed to continue serving." obama

julia: this is an interesting thing. are we talking about him having respect for these generals the votto do you think he will explain the advice -- respect for these generals? do you think he will respect the advice he gets? will this perhaps be a turning point? marty: that is what a lot of people will be hoping, but again, this president has shown a remarkable ability to surprise people. can listen to kelly and actually work with him in terms of policymaking, messaging, communication style, the chaos will obviously subside. i think kelly will feel the same frustration as priebus felt, that he had no power. if you are going to change chief of staffs, usually, the person you would consult with is your chief of staff. i would think donald trump took this decision with his own counsel. -- it will bert interesting to see if anyone reports who he talked to, usually his closest advisers or family, and it could be that ivanka and jerod were big supporters of priebus. it will be interesting to see how that dynamic plays out. jo

julia: it is unconventional.s no central banking experience, no academic framework that we can look to that will say whether he is a hawk or doubt. pragmatic is, he is and will want to keep economy on course. probably not a big regime change in the current policy structure. kathleen: which makes me think of a quick final question. saidsion, is the tightening into a falling inflation environment, and is somebody like gary cohn equipped to handle it? they are showing a little more flexibility on rate hikes. they do not want to be the cause of the next recession. if inflation stays low, the neutral rate is low and they will stop earlier. but that is the worry of having an unconventional person who may find it harder to form consensus when you are confronted with a crisis. when we thought -- at the helm, he had so much credibility, it helped him form consensus. it is not to say there is one model for central bankers, we have had many types with many different backgrounds, but is -- it is a little concerned. yvonne: g

julia, what'd she say? >> sheryl sandberg telling me that they are excited about the strong performance in the quarter and she pointed to the rise of mobile and instagram, in particular she didn't break instagram's revenue, but she said that they now have over 15 million businesses using business profiles and instagram joining the 70 million facebook business pages. i asked sandberg about concerns that the company would no longer be able to rely on higher ad load to drive growth and here's what she said. >> our goal is for the ads to be really high of qualiquality. when you see a post from a friend, you want the ads to be as high quality as those posts and so we've been carefully tracking the exact of ads on the user experience over the last several years. ad loads up from a few years ago and we've been able to do this by improving the quality and the el are advance of the ads. and we've done it without significantly impacting people's facebook experience. >> more relevant the ads, the higher the revenue fo

julia: lo siento. bebé: [llora] julia: tengo que hacerlo. [suspira] tengo que hacerlo. a decir.

julia: "what'd you miss?"ng back to the top story of the day, president donald trump's lengthy first ever meeting with russian president vladimir putin at the g-20 summit in hamburg. for more, bill richardson, former new mexico governor who has also served to ambassador of the united nations and as u.s. energy secretary. he joins us on the phone from massachusetts. can you hear me? oh, my goodness. i'm so sorry. we are going to keep trying. i promise this is the last time we are going to do that to you. carl, can you still hear me? karl: -- carl: i hear you loud and clear. julia: i love live television. this is great. we can go again and get fixed income's reaction to the data. we are changing it up. winning. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ julia: "what'd you miss?" data released this morning shows 220,000,olls topped but worker payrolls rose less than expected. discussed the weakness in wage growth and how that relates to the direction in treasury yields. >> we are seeing a broad synchronicity in terms of

vonnie: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i'm julia. kevin: and i'm kevin cirilli.e the top stories we are watching for. julia: press secretary sean spicer resigning today after donald trump high financier hires anthony scaramucci. we get an update from the white house at 2:00 p.m. eastern and president trump shakes of his legal team as he looks to combat and expanding russian investigation led by robert mueller. we talked representative french hill and senator ron wyden. ♪ julia: for the newsday once again in washington, a shakeup on president trump's indications team. sean spicer resigning after the president's high financier anthony scaramucci

julia, what'd she say?eryl sandberg telling me that they are excited about the strong performance in the quarter and she pointe

is julia a spy? paranoiainto the great that we are experiencing now about who we can and cannot trust and who is and is not on your side. charlie: was there any trepidation to do this after the controversy around julius caesar? , whenwere already going that happened. what is nice about our play is that it is not about donald trump. happen and what can it is not as in-your-face as julius caesar. our play is theatrical. one of the things about the play theatricalre is a element and a stagecraft that you have never seen before. onrlie: how do you settle the look of the character? >> they did this in london and i had an idea of what the should look like. , likeed to look timeless a 1940's regime or set in 2084. i wanted to make it not quite look like a time. >> what is julia think she can trust winston? >> she sees that he is different and she understands that there extraordinary and brave about him. whether or not she takes advantage of that is up for debate. once they meet and sleep together and intera