julia coronado and eric freedman with us.erson institute for their founder, a perfect morning to speak to fred burstyn. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ tom: bloomberg "surveillance." chart, we do this with julia coronado and eric freedman. the statef the year, of the union, the summation of the fiscal deficit of -- to gdp and trade deficit to gdp. president trump wants to be reagan. 1980's, uglyn the sum total under 6%. this vector is moving in the wrong direction. julia: that is unfortunately one of the side effects of the stimulus the president was not expecting. tom: an economic miracle. julia: when the u.s. is stronger, the deficit widens. that is what we are seeing, and that will probably continue. the u.s. has some stimulus in the pipeline and we will be a relative outperform or from a macro standpoint. that will keep pushing the deficit wider. tom: what are u.s. bank abouters, do they care the deficit and deficit to gdp? eric: not until it shows up in the 10 year. when the marginal owner says -- tom: is that a yield price up, b

let's bring in julia coronado, founder of macro policy perspectives and lids young, senior market strategy with bni melon. julia, why don't you start you're looking at the words here so what do you see >> what i see is almost all participants thought it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing asset holdings later this year later this year, before too long means we'll get an announcement in march they will stop cutting the balance sheet later this year. >> that is one of the things that was part of the tightening that was going on. >> exactly. >> for most of last year. >> befuddled the fed. >> and the guy who is never befuddled about the fed is steve liesman, and he's had time now to look at some of this stuff. steve, what can you tell us? >> yeah, some of this stuff, tyler. what we're looking at here is the fed saw the growth risk increasing it saw consumer and business sentiment was lower, and it saw financial conditions had tightened. it expected slower growth in 2019 a bunch of things. it really looks like just it accumulated to bring the fed to a position

. >> julia coronado, thank you >>> we just lost a decent amount of the gains today but we're still higherabout .3%. nasdaq basically flat now. >>> healthy travel demand boosting shares of hilton. we'll discuss its earnings beat next. >>> entrepreneur and homemade founder ayesha curry will join us at post nine. we'll talk about her new business and basketball star husband steph curry. dow u11potsisp 7 in f blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. >> welcome back to the closing bell let's check in on some individual market movers shares of hilton tlrading highe. the company cited higher prices, healthy travel demand is driving the gains, healthy travel demand overall has not just boosted their stock up 7%. a lot of the broader industry, whether we're talking about cruise lines,