julia: our next guest is also cautious against a fast fed. joining us is omair sharif, he is the senior u.s. economist. great to have you with us. do you share martinrns about the risk of tightening too fast? omair: i think that is correct. the concern the fed has is that if you tighten to do the quickly come up what you may do is dampen inflation expectations moving forward. if that is the case, what you need is to be boosting inflation expectations to get thelized higher. there is concern that if you tighten too much, you may slowdown the consumer, the economy, and put down -- downward pressure on inflation. scarlet: it becomes a self-perpetuating cycle. we have seen this in the past. talk about the may inflation print. on a month over month basis, use a look soft. year-over-year is where you see things heat up. why i would argue against a fourth rate hike. there is no sign that underlying inflation is picking up. let me give you three points. first, if you loe re cpi excluding shelter, which has been holding everything up, we are running basically this year around a 1.7% annualized rate. if you take out the strong january, it is about a 1% annua