mark: let's bring in julian chillingworth, chief investment officer at rathbones. are you in the transitory camp or is it something more sinister? julian: morning. i would say to you that i think the fed and probably other central banks have underestimated the slackness within the wage negotiations for perhaps the older workforce. we haven't seen that push through in wage inflation they were expecting. traditionally congress will look at the phillips curve and say you should have had that kick out. that is why i think we saw the comment from janet yellen. it is not going to the economic plan. my suspicion is this has to do with demographics, with gig economy, all those things changing our world. i think inflation could remain lower for longer. mark: which has an impact on policy, as some in the fed are suggesting. julian: i think the fed has to probably divorce the normalization of the balance sheet from raising rates. consequently, i would expect some normalization in september, but rate rise in december is open to question. i think the market is going for 1.7%. tr