julian emanuel of btig will be staying with me.eminder, you can find all the charts we just used and more by running gtv on your terminal. you can browse recent features and save our charts all by running gtv . live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: this is "bloomberg daybreak." a group led by tencent's byington percent of the world's largest music company. it values universal music at almost $34 billion, and will allow tencent and its partners to increase the stake to up to 20% in the next year. vivendi has been trying to cash in on the soaring value of the music business. it could help give universal better access to china. j.p. morgan chase plans to be the first global bank to take advantage of the opening of china's futures market. bloomberg has learned the bank wants 100% ownership of its joint venture there. starting tomorrow, china will allow full foreign control of future firms. that is your bloomberg business flash. david: thanks so much. we are back with julian emanuel, btig, who has a bullish call on s

we are joined by julian emanuel, btig chief equity and derivatives strategist. incredible scenes as the house meets to talk about, debate and vote on articles of impeachment for the u.s. president. it is not impacting markets right now, but it must be on investors' minds. julian: there's no question that it is. we can take comfort in the fact that at the end, it is about the economy and not about the political process. go back to the clinton impeachment in 1998, 19 99, the markets just shrugged it off. if you think about it, and a lot of ways, and this may seem like a difficult conclusion to draw, the president has moved forward on china trade. we are probably going to sign usmca in the house tomorrow. if anything, both the democrats and the republicans are looking to do more for the economy to sort of make impeachment -- it is out there, but the focus should be on the economy, and politicians are moving in that direction. thate: is it important whatever the outcome is is less important than the speed of delivery? julian: the public doesn't seem to be as focused

btig's derivative strategist julian emanuel sees the s&p 500 hitting 3450 next year i can't believe i'mng to read this next number, says you think we could approach 4,000 on the s&p 500 next year. mr. bull, nice to see you. >> great to be here. under the right set of circumstances we can what is fascinating to us is that you teed us up previously, one of the biggest bulls on the street, we're only looking as our base case 7% upside and what's amazing is that when you look at the past history of years following good years like 2019 the ranch return is over 14%. that's the ingrained defensiveness that we've seen the entire year leading stocks higher and we think there's plenty of going into 2020. >> how many of those following years happened to fall in an election year, a lot going on next year especially in the second half. the market can withstand all of that >> there is a lot going on we certainly think the runway is reasonably clear in the first half if you look today, i think we could all argue given the rally we had the last couple months the market is overbought on a short term bas

according to btig analyst julian emanuel, the investment bank is forecast i forecasting 3450 for the&p by the end of 2020, which by the way, is one of the most bullish forecasts on wall street. according to emanuel, quote, it's shocking that it's the most bullish forecast on the street and that that leads him to believe he's probably too low. to our traders. all right, gentlemen, what's the over/under on the s&p 500 of 3450 by the end of 2020? taking into account what vice chair of the federal reserve richard clarida just said that the economy's in great shape, well, he said good, i pushed him on great, and the u.s. consumer is about as strong as he's ever seen them. matt? >> we had 25% gains this year so what's 10%? not even half that. it could be a lowball estimate but the concerns are not for the first half of 2020. everyone knows it's the second half. that all is predicated on the election. i don't think anyone's going to make a forecast going out past maybe the first two quarters. as you said, the consumer is great, the economy looks good. if we get some kind of phase two deal s

julian emanuel and lou alexander. former counselor to secretary -- treasury secretary tim geithner. tty good, i think, julian. although you waffle a little i've seen you go back and forth. your basic stance has been bullish. >> yes we think next year's going to be a good year as well. we're looking for 34.50. >> you've had your moments. >> if you think about it, because the market -- >> recession. >> no, not recession moments we have never thought there was going to be a recession. >> tariff -- >> no, trading moments, yeah tariff, more volatility, but the difference is is the fed is now behind the money markets in our view and that is dampening volatility they're going to do their best to keep the liquidity flowing, not interest rates as we've spoken about, and that to us is one of the elements that's going to cause a better year next year. >> at one point you were at 3100 for year end on the s&p but then you -- i think you kind of got -- you got a little worried about that forecast at one point, did you not >> 3,000 the whole time. 3,000 the whole time. >> above that. that was at ab