julian emanuel is the senior managing director at ever core. this is a conversation you have been listening to. it is tilted pessimistically and you say there is a 50-50 shot of a new low. >> when you think about it, the market spent june, july and part of august fighting the fed but part of the reason that jackson hole was so -- they thought, you're never going to hear him be more hawkish than that soundbite is because it became clear that after that kind of rally, and the fed is not targeting prices. they are targeting financial conditions but they got too loose. that could change if the data begins to move in their direction. the problem today is the data moved towards the stronger direction. i want to go back to the comment that karen made. buying it right and selling it right, if you look at the last five or six weeks, what we saw on the upside and then the downside was really unprecedented only four times since 1950. the data shows that it was so extreme that sentiment is as poor that we may not make a new low. are best case is that you w

julian emanuel is still with us. at what point does the rest of the world's problem become the u.s.'rest of the world grapples with the reported inflation of a major currency? julian: it already is. we know what the inflation numbers are and we heard from corporate america last week. there was one very key announcement that basically the recession is being imported into the u.s. from that perspective, we are at that point. the thing that is different about the last several days is clearly the fed has been guiding the market in terms of what it expects, what it wants, how it wants this to unfold. the last couple of days as i said earlier, entering the emotional phase, we are likely at the point where the markets are going to start guiding the central banks. that flips the script. that frankly is the danger that you get into in september and october. ultimately for us will provide at some point the buying opportunity. damian: everyone is so bearish this morning. what is the upside risk to global growth? what is the market not seeing here? is china reopening, the crushing de-escalation,

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