julian emanuel. i only say it because it bugs you so much, the happy new year bit. the new year at this point. tim, how are you thinking about the markets? >> it's hard to argue with where julian is, especially in terms of where, i think the street got very aggressive. what's interesting is that, and dan pointed out multiple expansion. it wasn't multiple expansion at the end of the year when a lot of strategists, a parade of strategists raised their targets on the s&p. it was eps. and again, it was this eps that gets up to 11.7% growth when the historical is 8.5 when times are good. the one thing i'll say to push back on, hey, we're in the same place, the comps are easy. we're in a world of productivity growth. and i think that you have a case where nobody just mentioned a no landing scenario. i mean, i don't love the economy here, but so far, the sequencing of when this economy is going downhill has been wrong. and it appears to continue to be wrong. >> interesting, unemployment plays such a huge role. but we've had 10, 11, 12 months of negative revisions that peop

. >> we are going to get the investing playbook, from julian emanuel and chris vallone. >>

julian emanuel well strategist at evercore, good morning. numbers, tons of them. go to the outlook. the outlook from jp morgan, 90 billion with the estimated 86. >> that is consistent with his rates could be higher for longer. i think when you step back and think about where things are in general whether it is the banks of the markets overall is there is a lot of positivity priced in. if you look at the last 24 hours we had cpi hotter than expected, military action last night that is underpinned the price of oil. when you look at that it makes the fence job more difficult. jonathan: are these durable trends? julian: when you go back and think about rising oil prior to october there is an element of uncertainty around all of this. when you step away from it, it is the question of whether there is a greater degree of uncertainty priced in whether the trends are or are not durable. you have one the fine line of keeping inflation underpinned, ahead of trajectory. tom: i want to get to june and then try to get to december. your notice blistering when you go sub 4000 sp

still with us around the tail, -- around the table, julian emanuel of evercore. want to talk to you about the consequences. we have traffic to the red sea down, traffic through the panama canal down. how close are we to goods inflation picking up again because it was happening around the world? -- because of what is happening around the world? julian: that is one of the things that bothers us about being ultra-aggressive to the upside in the markets, is that part of this expectation is that inflation is going to continue that gentle glide path lower and i would suggest that what you may end up seeing is if you have continued congestion, this could be an environment where the stickiness does remain, but in fact it does end up being manifested in incrementally lower demand, particularly given that from our point of view, you are likely to have the end of the pandemic ecess saving -- excess savings sometime this year. lisa: could you talk about the downturn you are looking at? julian: the biggest would be an interpretation right now, as far as news amongst the gener