evercore's isi julian emanuel saying a variety of factors are shaping the perception of the headline. julian: when you look at manufacturing it has been weekend for the better part of a year now. part of the benefit of china not growing as expected has been the cap on commodity prices. it's a significant tailwind for risk assets in general, to a point. and again, there is an expectation that you won't tip over because of china weakness. we have seen that in the past. it's part of where the fed's calculus comes into play. scarlet: stuart paul from bloomberg economics. stocks opened lower today. we saw indexes take another leg lower at 10:00 a.m. when ism manufacturing numbers came out. does this report revive growth scare concerns? stewart: it might. there is a bit of a disinflationary impulse hiding in the details of the report. much of the uptick was driven by increased inventory and improved supply chains. that should help alleviate pipeline price pressures and create a disinflationary impulse. this will be something the fed keeps in mind would meet later in the month. scarlet: disi

julian emanuel is still bullish. here is what he will say. "the unique intersection of monetary and political volatility reinforces that this is the most difficult bull market we have ever seen but by no means derails the path to 6000 that year end." are we overstating the importance of the first move of the federal reserve? julian: not this time. when you think about it, the backdrop is probably as unique as we could have ever imagined. i think a lot of people are surprised that that is the context with stocks at all-time highs. the fact is that we have seen the economy start to weaken around the edges. it is normal that the economy should slow. that is what we wanted all along. but confidence is a very fragile thing, particularly when the economy is starting to slow and you are getting signals from the labor market. in that respect, the fed's job is to make sure that it sends a message, and we do think they will do 50 today, that it is on the case if there is a deterioration in the data in and around the election in an election that will be

joining us at post nine, evercore isi julian emanuel has the second highest s&p target on the street6,000 alongside globally chief economist, pressure off the release of their new q4 economic outlook slowing gdp growth and more fed rate cuts. good to see you both. indefinite expansion? is that possible? >> well r i will believe it when i see it, but at least we know that the baseline case for the next 12 months is one of a soft landing, most likely scenario. it seems like the fed is on its way to stick that landing with the neutral rates coming down to where they think it's between 2.5 and 3.5. it looks like we are getting to the trend growth rate more than anything else at the moment. >> so what does that mean? we're tracking almost 3% growth for this quarter. >> we are tracking almost 3% growth for the second quarter and the third quarter. i think there are some red flags in the consumer caution that's creeping up, like the confidence index that we saw this morning, and some of the fiscal direct contribution to growth coming from state and local governments those should be reversin

coming up, we have julian emanuel of evercore, alicia levine, and earl davis of bmo.♪ so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. matt: futures indicate another high. dan bloombergtechtv open interest startsi right now. in: matt: retail sales unexpectedly rose providing the final slice of data before the fed decides on rates tomorrow. and what the fed