julian howard is with us today. e got here, probability. -- extrapolated into a chart, below 50%. we're not see that for a while. we got a bit frothy, and at times skimmed the punt. julian: softer in the u.s., inflation has probably gone a little bit too far. the labor market is adding jobs. 19,000 was a little bit softer. overall, a job additions in the u.s. since the end of the crisis from a big proportion of this has been in social care, hospitality, lower paid jobs. -- crisis,prices income people playing video games. university of chicago study on this. not as tight as people think. labornnot look to the market as what will happen to inflation. that's why the inflation expectations falling a little bit. what about the tax reform story? assess his ability to get through the text changes. julian: that will be tougher. it is a bit of a consensus but the obamacare repeal failure, care -- made everyone r rethink what this administration ryancare made-- everyone rethink what this administration can do. 2.2 percent befo