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Mar 22, 2023
03/23
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maria: continuing to move through markets that notion larry mcdonald said a cut before july 4 art how i don't know if a cut before july 4, i do think stephanie is correct about the fed following a small increase today i don't think makes much difference to be honest fed should not be determining interest rates they should follow markets not lead the markets this got us into all if problems we are in today. and the use of credit facilities, banks, silicon valley all of that is a correct consequence of fed's being aggressive trying to control markets, rather than following markets, a major mistake i hope they change it. >> yeah they made a lot of mistakes, stephanie you just said you know the everything bubble has burst. one thing i am worried about is commercial real estate, there is a piece of journal today a record amount of commercial mortgages are expiring in 2023, set to test financial health of small regional banks under pressure following failures of silicon valley bank fowler banks 2. trillion commercial real estate including rental apartment mortalities analysis from data firm
maria: continuing to move through markets that notion larry mcdonald said a cut before july 4 art how i don't know if a cut before july 4, i do think stephanie is correct about the fed following a small increase today i don't think makes much difference to be honest fed should not be determining interest rates they should follow markets not lead the markets this got us into all if problems we are in today. and the use of credit facilities, banks, silicon valley all of that is a correct...
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Mar 15, 2023
03/23
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mcdonald. here's what he said about the fed cutting rates before july.is. >> they probably won't cut at this meeting but the hike's gone and they basically use their vocal cords to say the path will be a lot easier which will help and then as things get worse and worse, the beast in the market will force the fed to cut, probably within i think the first cut will be probably before the 4th of july. maria: you said the first cut would be when? before the 4th of july, stephanie. i know you're also looking for a pivot. adam johnson, jump in here. >> stephanie, i'm curious. you said unemployment which is the strongest we've seen -- i should say employment, the strongest we've seen in 50 years, you think that's going to u-turn and i'm wondering is had that a function of falling asset prices because of getting squeezed by higher interest rates? >> yeah. well, i think there are two factors in that. one, we've had a really large growth in labor force participation which is a huge part why the unemployment rate is so low. if you overlay the start of wilshire 5000,
mcdonald. here's what he said about the fed cutting rates before july.is. >> they probably won't cut at this meeting but the hike's gone and they basically use their vocal cords to say the path will be a lot easier which will help and then as things get worse and worse, the beast in the market will force the fed to cut, probably within i think the first cut will be probably before the 4th of july. maria: you said the first cut would be when? before the 4th of july, stephanie. i know...
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Mar 20, 2023
03/23
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maria: we had a guest on last week, larry mc mcdonald said thy will cut by july 4th. >> larry sat behind me in lehman brothers. before the process started i was urging them to be more active with respect to the balance sheet and less active with respect to rate policy because if you go back to the easing, easing was 150 basis points of rate cuts and the equivalent of 250 basis points of bond purchases. so then when they started unwinding it they said let's do nothing with the bond portfolio, will be really passive with qt and aggressive with rate hikes. the two, tens treasury curve inverts by 110 basis points. that's how banking works. you borrow short, you lend long. so the whole policy unwind or tightening has been optimal. opt -- suboptimal. they could have been more aggressive unwinding the bond portfolio, kept the curve positively sloped and you wouldn't have the banking system -- maria: how worried are you about the macro story? it feels really dicey. you've got credit suisse in emergency deal acquired by ubs, it's competitor. you've got major banks trying to shore up first republi
maria: we had a guest on last week, larry mc mcdonald said thy will cut by july 4th. >> larry sat behind me in lehman brothers. before the process started i was urging them to be more active with respect to the balance sheet and less active with respect to rate policy because if you go back to the easing, easing was 150 basis points of rate cuts and the equivalent of 250 basis points of bond purchases. so then when they started unwinding it they said let's do nothing with the bond...
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mcdonald douglas and boeing. they've won. i go back to the, our july of 2020. i guess, and they asked the ceo of boeing who boeing preferred to win the election. donald trump, or a joe by it. he said doesn't matter to us. yeah. because we're gonna get, we're gonna get paid anyway that so. so the definition of wind for the united states, i think at the end of the day is shareholder value in terms of the relationship between russia and the e. u. i think it's still a little too early to, to call that game because one of the things that very few people discuss in this context is russia has a history that is centuries long. china has a history that is centuries long, that united states still hasn't reached 600 years. so they see a different timeline in horizon than we do. and that's why i believed their tactics . their strategies are different than ours. the united russia is fighting in artillery war and winning in artillery war, because that's the kind of battle that russia is designed to fight, which is why they don't go around the world provoking and starting fig
mcdonald douglas and boeing. they've won. i go back to the, our july of 2020. i guess, and they asked the ceo of boeing who boeing preferred to win the election. donald trump, or a joe by it. he said doesn't matter to us. yeah. because we're gonna get, we're gonna get paid anyway that so. so the definition of wind for the united states, i think at the end of the day is shareholder value in terms of the relationship between russia and the e. u. i think it's still a little too early to, to call...
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Mar 22, 2023
03/23
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president fed does nothing today, there are expectations, larry mcdonald said there's going to be a cut before july because you could actually unnerve people to say this is a lot worse than i thought. >> it's funny you say that, one of my good friends i talk to all the time is a big fan of your, and he says the fed has to hike for a credibility issue. hold on. if things are really bad and hiking are going to make things worse, why are you trying to fool people no make them -- to make them think things aren't as bad as they appear? fundamentally, do we need higher interest rates? i'm going to say no. and, again, i come back to the yield curve. there was a james comment about inflation. if inflation was such a big problem, why did the 10-year never get above $4 -- 4.25? if. >> well, because the market is effectively telling you long term inflation is coming down -- >> the exactly. >> -- which is the good news. long term, inflation expectations are anchored. >> that's right. >> it's taking longer than i thought, but inflation is coming down. maria: so, markets do what on a cut, rally? >> i agree with
president fed does nothing today, there are expectations, larry mcdonald said there's going to be a cut before july because you could actually unnerve people to say this is a lot worse than i thought. >> it's funny you say that, one of my good friends i talk to all the time is a big fan of your, and he says the fed has to hike for a credibility issue. hold on. if things are really bad and hiking are going to make things worse, why are you trying to fool people no make them -- to make them...
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Mar 29, 2023
03/23
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larry mcdonald was on said we will get a rate cut before july 4 holiday. >> we may or may not get a rate cut but i tell you from my point of view if rates into stop going up i would consider that a significant victory i have been saying they are going to stop going up i think actually finally there i think fed is realizing that it is cure for high inflation higher rates is actually, worse than the cause. maria: how did they not realize that you think we are having a recession. >> we are going to have a releasing likelihood dreerp because of credit convicts conflicts to come banks can't raise if they ray rates, what they can do make fewer loans make lines of credit out there nonpof for growth. >> may i jump in we keep talking about this, all of us, day after day are we of having a recession are we not having a recession? here is the thing, exactly one year ago first and second quarter last year gdp contracted, that is a recession, but it didn't. maria: white house tried to change dissatisfaction of what a recession was. >> right. >> -- so it wouldn't look as bad my point is, we can dwlaeb
larry mcdonald was on said we will get a rate cut before july 4 holiday. >> we may or may not get a rate cut but i tell you from my point of view if rates into stop going up i would consider that a significant victory i have been saying they are going to stop going up i think actually finally there i think fed is realizing that it is cure for high inflation higher rates is actually, worse than the cause. maria: how did they not realize that you think we are having a recession. >> we...
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Mar 16, 2023
03/23
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because we spoke with the bear traps report founder, larry mcdonald yesterday on this program and he's basically expecting a cut before the julyiday. watch this. >> probably won't cut this meeting but the hike's gone and they cut the next -- they basically use their vocal cords to say okay, the path is going to be easier which will help and then as things get worse and worse, the beast in the market will force the fed to cut probably within i think the first cut will be probably before the 4th of july. maria: you said the first cut would be when? >> before july 4th. >> july 4th i think is probably a little bit early but if you look at what the market's pricing in, we have 100 basis points of cuts in the next 12 months. i think this is because the market looks at history and says financial stability still ends up being paramount for the central bank and if they get more concerned than they are now, i think they could react. >> do you think the federal reserve is sort of behind the curve again in the sense that economies are already slowing, that they don't have to continue to squeeze? i think in the early 1980s when they kept s
because we spoke with the bear traps report founder, larry mcdonald yesterday on this program and he's basically expecting a cut before the julyiday. watch this. >> probably won't cut this meeting but the hike's gone and they cut the next -- they basically use their vocal cords to say okay, the path is going to be easier which will help and then as things get worse and worse, the beast in the market will force the fed to cut probably within i think the first cut will be probably before...
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Mar 17, 2023
03/23
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that's why yesterday we had larry mcdonald on who said the fed -- actually this week said the fed's probably going to cut rates going into july're seeing those cuts priced out of the market now. but you're absolutely right, maria, about the macro story. so just putting aa aside what happens next, which if you think about what the fed is thinking now in terms of how much more they will have to raise rates, they'll have the dot plot next wednesday, where they write down where they think interest rates will go under the baseline outlook, how has this credit concern and the banking sector interest rate concern in the banking sector, how has that changed the economic backdrop? i think that's the big question here. and if you think about where we were the last fed meeting, we they that really hot payroll report coming out of it and people said oh, my goodness, all of these fed rate increases have not slowed down the economy very much. everyone, maria, was saying where are these lags of monetary policy. and now we're seeing them. so i think that is important for the fed. i think they will have to say something about you how that inf
that's why yesterday we had larry mcdonald on who said the fed -- actually this week said the fed's probably going to cut rates going into july're seeing those cuts priced out of the market now. but you're absolutely right, maria, about the macro story. so just putting aa aside what happens next, which if you think about what the fed is thinking now in terms of how much more they will have to raise rates, they'll have the dot plot next wednesday, where they write down where they think interest...
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Mar 15, 2023
03/23
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larry macdonald stephanie pomboy quick larry being mcdonald joined us early said yeah, the fed is going to have to pivot in big way cut rates before july> -- probably won't cut this meeting hike gone the next basically -- the report to say okay past is going to be -- easier will help and then things get worst and worst beast in market will force fed to cut i think first cut probably 4th of july. maria: you said first cut 4th of july james freeman. >> a fed created this problem, creating too much money, the answer is not go back to the money creation era the answer is it needs to come from the white house, this is the same playbook from early '80s last time we had that kind of inflation, federal reserve mass to take care of money, it is the job of the fiscal authorities good part time we need incentives to rule out tax increases john mentioned opened alaska what he has done said looks like yes on willow project with conditions, there is a lot more you can do to open alaska energy production he needs to do it rightly away we need white house to lead deregulation no more tax increase proposals, that is what we need for the economy. maria:
larry macdonald stephanie pomboy quick larry being mcdonald joined us early said yeah, the fed is going to have to pivot in big way cut rates before july> -- probably won't cut this meeting hike gone the next basically -- the report to say okay past is going to be -- easier will help and then things get worst and worst beast in market will force fed to cut i think first cut probably 4th of july. maria: you said first cut 4th of july james freeman. >> a fed created this problem,...