i'm julie powell and president of the powell oil associates. that's a company that specializes in oil trade. a very welcome to all of you and your to start with you has this other bounce meant this limit of the amount of oil available on the market to the end of the year. come as a surprise, i think it was a surprise to the market that the cuts were extended to the end of the year, where the market expected to go month by maya. and as a result, as well, the inventory is continued to decline. we're saying well, price is riley, especially in the face of the increasing demands. and so tony, you will, in saudi, i know that you know, the saudi oil minister, perhaps you can shed some light for us on why the saudis are extending these costs . well, i cannot speak to any minister so, so the tests up front. but if i look at the decision, i've never also looked at the most recent opec decisions. this is not, this is less poly picks, opec doesn't really do that much politics. it's also a reflection of the rory of the global economy. we have seen china, i'

. >> when the fed announced its last rate hike back in july. powellting a recession, saying they expected a soft landing, an outcome which brings down inflation while avoiding a sharp downturn in the economy. but since july, inflation has ticked up for two consecutive months, fueled higher by rising oil prices. >> my colleagues and i are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing and transportation. >> though currently, well below its peak last year of 9, inflation still remains higher than the fed's target rate of 2, and the central bank is leaving the door open for future rate hikes. >> price stability is the responsibility of the federal reserve. without price stability , the economy does not work for anyone in particular. without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. >> federal reserve officials also predicting stronger economic growth next

. >> this is as of july, recent federal reserve chair jerome powell said inflation is still too high and noted that additional interest rate hikes are still a possibility. the fed officials have already hiked rates 11 times study show that lower income workers take the biggest blow when that happens from increasing prices, especially when it comes to food and other necessities that they really have to budget in. >> a 51 right now and get ready for oktoberfest september. yeah. this morning's dine and dish rihanna, take you to some place that celebrates it. well. >> we'll come to rod house, the bavarian style beer hall and restaurant in san francisco at fort mason where beer lovers rejoice is a slight oktoberfest every pretty much. it's pronounced right. house pitch in german means wheelhouse. >> but some might just call it red house because it's that rat. >> aaron, along with his twin brother, matt, are the owners with a thing for all things bavarian? this is town in look bills. this is a smoked beer. our smoked patrons come for the beverages. the camaraderie and the fresh food. there

we were supposed to be easy as of july and that has not happened. that is what powells trying to signal and it would be a big mistake to drop rates too soon. that's what the market is rallying on since we had this inflationary environment. the modifications are big downturn for the market. stuart: are we staring recession in the place? >> we see a recession but i don't believe the average american or average investor sees it. the banda market, the recession is coming, looking at the price of oil, this has written in the past couple weeks. this is an important indicator looking at the fact that saudi arabia and russia are looking at 1.5 million fewer barrels, our economy runs on energy, look at the price of diesel relative to where it is, this does not spell a cheaper economy, it spells higher inflation, prices go up with union strikes and higher prices being in demand, that adds to the inflationary picture. we are seeing trending backup as we've seen it trending down the last for you months but this recession could last more than a short timeframe. there are so many sy

is there anything we haven't said today, julie, about yesterday and jay powell and what can you add?in the stock market? what jay powell said yesterday? >> what i think is kind of interesting is where the fed is right now, they're kind of clinging to the phillips curve, like that's really what they believe in, and we're all just kind of wondering, hey, are you guys going to make the soft landing that we're expecting you to do? the fed is not a bunch of pilots. it's a bunch of firefighters. they really don't have easy mechanisms to make this perfect, delicate, soft landing, and that makes it really hard for them. they want the soft landing, and they want the ability for job growth to continue, but not too much, and they want the ability for inflation to come down but not so much that it negatively impacts the rest of the economy. it's hard. >> i mean, they have that horrible sophie's choice, whether they want to have a soft landing with inflation staying quite a bit above 2% or do they want a harder landing where they get inflation under control? that's not a great choice for anybody.

the program at first because ithere were concerns that mi quotes, powell would blow his stack if he were breached. sourced e-mail dated july 31, 2003. cia records clearly indicate and definitively that after he was briefed on the cia first detainee officer fight in the cia didou not tell president buh about the full nature of the eit until april 2006. that is what the records indicate. the cia similarly withheldhh information will provided false information to the cia inspector general during his conduct of a special review by the ig in 2004. they completed inaccurate information from the cia was used in documents provided to the department of justice and as a basis for president bush's speech on september 6, 2006. point which he publicly acknowledge the ciar program for the first time. and all of these cases other cia officers acknowledged internally, they acknowledged internally information the cia had provided was wrong. the cia also misled other cia white househi officials. when vice president cheney's cancel cia council general scott mueller in 2003 about cia videotaping, the waterboarding of detainees deliberately to

month-to-month, the number rose from the read we got in july from the read in august, the expectations were different story, if you are jerome powell his mind what do you think you sing to himself? >> what he keeps saying i don't know what he saying to himself but would he keep saying that number has to come down when i could've loosened anything until we get that number down, right now there on a short fuse so i obviously don't think they could get that number down between now and the meeting, my guess is it decent chance of raising them again, i would not know i only have a guess but i would guess if i had to estimate i would say they try to raise it again. cheryl: to your point about what he says when he spoke at jackson hole last friday he did basically say not so many words that inflation is not where they want to see it in here comes another hike. at some point whether or not is this meeting who knows, any final thoughts on where you're putting your money right now? >> we have a lot of money short-term in the 90 day and 60 day treasury and i think people have to be aware if i can get five and half% right now in a 90 day treas

powell will say about rate levels around the end of the year. the beige book also notes that businesses believe the u.s. economy expanded at a modest rate in julynd august. it states that job growth was subdued nationwide and shortages of skilled workers persisted. >>> now, japan has a reputation for its low cost of eating out. one clear example is so-called the big mac index where in terms of the cost of the burger, japan ranks 44th behind the u.s. and some major asian countries, but that may be changing with a new mcdonald's pricing strategy spurred by rising costs. >> reporter: at this mcdonald's in the central area of shin joku. 500 yen or about 3.5. you can get the same burger for over 10% less. it's part of a new mcdonald's strategy. the prices are divided into three groups, urban, semiurban, and standard. the company has used a system to implement price hikes at 184 restaurants since july. the move is a new for chain restaurants in japan which normally have uniform prices nationwide. >> translator: i didn't realize it was more expensive in tokyo. >> translator: i'll go to the cheaper one from now on. >> reporter: behind the difference in

economic forecast set for tomorrow afternoon jay powell and fmoc members are widely expected to keep rates on hold the markets have been bumpy since the july meeting when they hiked a .25% the s&p is down 2.5% since the july meeting let's talk about this vince larusso. vince, you are here in the house. >> great to be here. >> let's talk about this $1.6 billion in assets under management what are you telling clients about positioning and all allocations ahead of the fed decision >> we are active managers. we have been managing money for our clients. we have a team of analysts that look for opportunities we see all of the cross currents in the markets it is self serving to say that we have been doing that for 20 years. when you think of the uaw and the fed today and thinking about the dual mandate with lowering inflation and keeping labor in check. we are doing within the capital markets is seeing the consumer slowing down excess savings are depleted. interest rates will have an impact on delinquencies. we are finding sectors and themes within the capital markets to tell clients to be active >> i don't want to just talk about the magnificent

i think this is what powell's talking about when he's saying higher for longer. you know, we were supposed to be in easing here as of july didn't happen. now we find ourselves, you know, looking at a lower amount going into 2024. so there's not a lot of great news here with this higher treasury rate though because it's the really hitting the mortgages -- stuart: well, exactly. i want to get to that point. 4.47% yield on the 10-year treasury. that's the baseline for mortgages. looks to me like we're going towards 8%, 30-year fixed rate mortgages. are we? >> i completely agree with that. in fact, i've been saying this for a couple of years now. we're probably going to get to a much higher interest rate environment on mortgages, and we're probably going to have to consider 40 and 50-year products as we looking out into the future. if we can't get rates down because the u.s. is not as creditworthy, we have to borrow at i higher rates, we're in a different credit cycle today. so extending duration is the way that you can improve that but, ultimately, there's going to be pain and carnage if this continues. stuart: existing hom

july. i now recognize myself for four minutes to give an opening statement. thank you, chairman powell, for joining us today. inflation remains broad, based, and persistent. two troubling trends the fed expects will continue. as you said last week, the process of in getting inflation back to 2% is a long way to go. so even though the federal open market committee did not recommend a rate increase at last week's meeting, it's fair to say that the fed will continue to make additional increases in the months ahead. we'd like to hear your thinking on those matters. as a fomc again pointed out last week, the labor market still appears tight, with fed policymakers projecting a rise in unemployment rate to a still low 4.1% at the end of the year. despite pressure from the left, the federal reserve must remain committed to eliminating this stealth tax on american workers and families, and i urge you to continue that result. if you weeks ago, congress took the first step toward getting our fiscal house in order through the fiscal responsibility act. republicans will continue fighting for sensib

powell was hawkish but the market is not acting like that. what is your message from the market? what are you hearing from this market? >> back in july you and i were talking about the need for a three to 5% correction. that is exactly what we got going into august. we're getting this rally off the kind of oversold level. we're back on a buy signal. markets are starting to really look at the fed, saying they're probably done here. inflation is around 3%. it will probably moderate here for a bit. unemployment starting to rise here, slightly. so again i think this keeps the fed on pause. the market is looking for a reason for the fed to stop hiking rates. i think you see a rally here. charles: sounds good, lance, thanks so much, i appreciate it. >> my pleasure as always. charles: folks coming up later aggregate date. you take 10 middle income families and put rich people in there you can't merge saying things are great because they are not. i have a special guest talking about this later in the show. the next guest a market melt-up is possibly upon us but if you're playing at home be nimble. we have money map press sheave strategist, s

certainly, we had hawkish comments from july and jackson hole comments talked about parsing data and the fed paying close attention. powellt determin determined what with whappen in september. the fed mandate is inflation and employment. you have to hand it to the fed. we have thus far done a nice job of decreasing job openings without increasing layoffs, which is what you want to see and what leads to a nice landing here. everybody will look for it in a couple of hours which is let's keep the number lower. >> jolts showed the lowest number in a couple of years. thomas, dana is saying good news is bad news. we're looking for soft, but not too soft. >> i think that is fair. that is more than a jobs number. i think the wage numbers are particularly important here as well. last month and for the past couple months, you know, it has been coming in .40%. if you look at last month, you can make the argument of the decline in the workweek and they inflated the numbers. the fed wants to see the number decelerate more. if it can decelerate more without increase in unemployment and without too many more job openings falling. they w

that to july which saw core cpi rise 4.7% on an annualized basis, but either one of these is still above the fed's 2% inflation target. that is a key piece of data the federal reserve chair jay powell and company is going to use to make their decision just a week later at the september interest rate-setting meeting. shop could happen between now and then. -- so much could happen. even in the 58 minutes left we have the trade today, a lot could happen. let's got to scott bauer and sarge bill foil. -- guilfoyle. why do you think we're losing much of the gain, scott? >> i think there was a lot of bottom fishing today. apple obviously helped a lot. it was up $2-3 earlier, it's given all of that back right now. but i think that we are seeing some oversold conditions. there definitely are some concerns out there with cpi next week and then the fed decision. so i think people overall a are being a bit cautious. but to me, there are definitely some pockets here that are oversold, apple being one of them. now, i was looking wednesday on that -- excuse me, yesterday when we trade down about 173.55 or so in apple. that, you know, that low back on august 18th. was right around $172. so i didn'