july. >> all right steve, fascinating stuff steve liesman at hq. meantime, geopolitical tensions giving investors reason for pause. with us carson block, muddy waters, and chief economist david rosenbergiday people making jokes that bullard and kashkari are gunning for fed share. is that where we are >> i don't think that's going to happen i think we are gunning for 50 basis points on july 31st. i think that's going to happen i don't think the fed is going to stop there. you have to remember, you know, back in the last cycle the first rate cut in september of 2007 was 50 basis points. go back to the cycle before then when the fed started cutting rates in january of 2001, first rate cut 50 basis points and both those time periods nobody saw a recession coming, although it came two months later in both situations. >> yeah, in those situations 50 basis points didn't take us almost 30% of the way down to the bottom. >> that's a good point, but that was the famous quote from the q&a about the ounce of prevention for the pound of cure that was it right there. and he told us then and there at these low levels, the rates, if you are going to go, you are going big. >> the point this morning is