kailey: when would that happen? the market seems to have adjusted to the idea of a biden presidency. so much of the focus was about how long it is going to take, who was going to win and how long it was going to figure that out. at what point does the market think we might now seriously need to contend with a biden presidency? kathryn: i think it is market neutral to higher because the focus is what has taken us to these highs, and it is the fact that, in my view, we have had stimuli that quadrupled the u.s. deficit. we have had monetary stimulus that has doubled the balance sheet and looks to be moving higher and expanding its balance sheet to different asset classes. so that i don't think is going to change, which is going to take the markets higher regardless of who wins. if we get a democratic sweep, we are more than likely going to see a very generous stimulus package which is going to take markets higher. rolloverif we see this on the economic growth variables , regardless of monetary and fiscal stimuli, that

kailey: it is so interesting.seeing something similar in the new york city area with these targeted lockdowns. areas of brooklyn and queens, rather than re-shutting the entire new yorker economy. it remains a question of whether these targeted lockdowns rather than brought measures will work in combating the virus. i do not think there is any political appetite for national lockdown. we are hearing that across europe. there is no way we are returning to that seems to be the language. this is probably as far as governments will be prepared to go. hospitalizations are creeping up. the numbers are getting worse. the u.k. is on track to have higher hospitalizations than it did in the first wave. that is an alarming statistic out of britain. kailey: troubling trends. that does it for guy and i on bloomberg markets. coming up next, "balance of power." tune in for a conversation with sheila bair on the moral imperative to help the economy and consumers in the face of the pandemic. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated

s kailey: bloomberg' leinz in new york, staying up all night, really. get some sleep, kailey. what is the prediction based on more than 68,000 interviews for the u.s. presidential race? we will speak to the next, and this is bloomberg. ♪ berg. ♪ vp pence: "lost a trade war to china"? joe biden never fought it. joe biden has been a cheerleader for china over the last several decades. sen. harris: the president's trade war with china, he lost that trade war. he lost it. what ended up happening is because of a so-called trade war with china, america lost 300,000 manufacturing jobs. farmers have experienced bankruptcy. of the highlights from the u.s. vice presidential debate between kamala harris and mike pence. number ofat is the interviews carried out so far across all 50 u.s. states. it is a technique which works differently the most models, predicted the results of last year's u.k. general election within 12 seats. it is latest forecast for the u.s. presidency, and they think joe biden is set to sail past, taking 243 electoral votes -- 343 electoral college votes to trump's 19

. ♪ kailey: with the first word news, i'm kailey leinz.rospects for another stimulus package before election day look bleak. president trump and senate republicans are at odds. the president was urging them to "go big or go home," but senate majority leader mitch mcconnell is only legend to vote on the paycheck protection program for small businesses. house speaker nancy pelosi says it is not big enough. meanwhile, the world's top central banks are urging governments to keep spending. they say concerns about mounting debt should be put aside until economic recovery from the coronavirus is complete. the imf is normally a champion of budget restraint, but the fund agrees it is too early to end support. in the u.k., there is growing pressure on prime minister boris johnson to order a circuit breaker lockdown. the opposition labour party say it is needed to get the virus under control. deaths have soared to their highest level since june. concerns are mounting that new restrictions are not enough. russia has ruled out a deal with the u.s. on n

kailey: with the first word news, i'm kailey leinz.rospects for another stimulus package before election day look bleak. president donald trump and since republicans are at odds. the president is urging them to "go big or go home," but senate majority leader mitch mcconnell is only committing to a vote on the paycheck protection program for small businesses. house speaker nancy pelosi is demanding that the white house latest offer, saying it is not big enough. concerns about mounting debt should be put aside until the accomack recovery from the coronavirus is complete. the imf is normally a champion of budget restraint, but the fund agrees it is too early to end support. in the u.k., there is growing pressure on prime minister boris johnson to order a circuit breaker lockdown. party opposition say it is needed. there are concerns that new restrictions are not enough. bloomberg has learned conocophillips is in talks to buy concho resources. the company has a market value of about $8.7 billion. the company is looking to make a big bet on

annmarie: kailey leinz joins us now from new york. kaylee, this is far different from the first debate. you just heard a bear, china, covid, climate. for you, what are the highlights? kailey: one of the highlights, annmarie, was the mute button that was not even really used. president trump in particular taking a very different tack this time around than in the first debate, where his more aggressive performance really ended up hurting him in the polls. that is not to say that the two candidates did not attack each other. president trump really coming after biden on his record throughout his political career, but specifically during the obama administration, and he also came after biden and his family for alleged payments they from foreign countries. those claims, i should mention, are not backed up by fact. biden saying 220,000 americans have died on trump's watch, and he does not deserve reelection. he also called the separation of children and their families at the border criminal. really coming back on a number of issues, one of t

. ♪ -- kailey: with the first word news, and kailey leinz.he president said he feels so contractinger covid-19, he wants to go into the crowd and kiss everybody. supreme court nominee amy coney barrett faces questioning on her second day of hearings. one will be vice presidential candidate senator kamala harris. hasson & johnson temporarily halted its coronavirus vaccine study. trial because a clinical patient developed an unexplained illness. the astrazeneca study remains halted in the u.s.. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. leinz.ley this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is another side effect of these low interest rates. it is really supporting m&a activity, supporting further concentration, including in the financial sector. chathan: former fdic's there.ila bair from new york and london, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. openings away from the bell, plus 12 minutes. here's the price action

kailey: with the first word news, i am kailey leinz.elosi and steven mnuchin are expected to keep talking about a stimulus package there has been little progress. nancyand president -- pelosi and president trump are blaming each other. isnwhile the president brushing away criticism from republicans who say it is too much money. joe biden is maintaining his double-digit lead in the polls. abc news has the candidate leading president trump 54 to 42 nationally. a pole from cbs shows joe biden ahead in nevada and michigan and he is tied in iowa, state president trump won easily in 2016. president trump tweeted he is now immune to the coronavirus since he already had. twitter took exception to up presidential tweet on the matter. a rulepany market as violation for spreading misleading and harmful information relating to the virus. windy and hot conditions returned to california this week. pg&e says it may need to cut off power in the northern part of the state to reduce chances of its equipment starting wildfires. the utility emerge from ban

kailey leinz is looking at that.on posting earnings above analyst expectations, granted, at $.11 a share, down 70% on a year on basis. that earnings beat came in the face of a miss on the top line. revenue at just $3 billion, shy of expectations. the fact that they were able to post a profit comes down to $1 billion in cost savings. what they said going forward is what is important. it has been a really bad year to be a fracker. because the price of oil has collapsed, a lot of e&p's have had to roll back production. has seen their stock declined by more than half this year and has had to lay off half of its workforce in north america. but the ceo today said that it looks like they have bottomed, and in north america, things are stabilizing. a different picture in the international market. demand is still weak. he says a bottom is near. markets made up about two thirds of halliburton's revenue in the second quarter. historically, north america has made up half or more of its sales, but that is now down to about 33%. w

i am kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it has already gotten bad.howing up in the numbers and likely to get worse into 2021. one notable part of this global recession is the inequality. jonathan: a sobering conversation with david malpass, the world bank president ahead of the imf world bank meeting. from london and new york, alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i am jonathan ferro counting you down to the opening bell. looking forward to catching up with gerard cassidy. we will do that on bloomberg tv in about 15 minutes. tom: a conversation made more interesting with the distinction between jp morgan and citigroup. always good to catch up with mr. cassidy. right now we diverge to kentucky. tim adams is with the institution of international finance. president and chief executive auster -- chief executive officer. he has reinvigorated the institution. he put a spirit in last year on a debate about our economics and the financial system around it. we are thrilled he can join us. what is it like to pull off a virtual conference after the excellenc

thank you, kailey leinz.r your business flash with a look at some of the biggest news stories. senator elizabeth warren going out to disney. she criticized the company for laying off thousands as a result of the pandemic. she says disney's spending on erodess makes rich but its ability to write out downturns. shares of amc plunging. is ceo says the company doing everything it can to raise cash to survive the pandemic. he says the chain is not considering bankruptcy at the moment. bloomberg reported amc was considering options that did include filing for bankruptcy. yet for fedexest and ups. the so-called christmas treat has pushed the start of the holiday shopping season even earlier and that will start the limits of shipping networks already strained by the pandemic. amazon began promotions yesterday that are estimated to lead to $10 billion worth of sales. and that is your bloomberg business flash. in on howd, we check schools are faring across the country as covid cases rise in certain areas. more with for

bloomberg's kailey leinz is looking at the facts. do tell. you look at the performers, all three of the major crews stocks are among the days winners -- date's winners, norwegian, carnival all higher to the tune of 5.5% or more. the reason is more optimism on the virus front, that upbeat, positive tone coming from president trump, trying to downplay the risk, maybe having investors thinking people want to start cruising again. just because the president is trying to paint a rosy picture does not mean the picture is all that rosie. if you look at the covid data from yesterday, nearly 40,000 new cases in the u.s., an increase of 11.4%, and because of the surge the cdc says there will be no crews sailing through the end of this month, extending that mandate through october 31. of course, norwegian has canceled all of its october departures. carnival foran and six months. itsl caribbean has 65% of planned capacity days in 2020 eliminated as of the end of october. obviously, it is costing cruise lines a lot of money. in the second quarter, they lo

kailey: talk to me more about that.he way we've intertwined professional views and the way we can hear cases on a legal basis and make opinions on that. have we focused on her personal views or are we rightfully looking for her personal views and facing the way we can -- she can look at a case in front of her based on that. her personalpinion views have become too much of a focal point because we have a long and open tradition of presidents picking justices with an eye to the results those justices will deliver. we know this, president trump has said this on multiple occasions about specific rulings included but not limited to roe v. wade. the fact that she was chosen is an open secret it is to engineer certain result. i do not see what the point of focusing on her religious beliefs or her prior pro-life does given we know that is the trajectory of many supreme court nominations. kevin: it is fascinating so close to an election, the themes of women's health issues, catholicism, so many of these issues on the campaign tr

kailey: that is the key question.seems its status quo. -- 150 million americans already casted their vote, and biden already had a lead, according to the national average, is also leading by a narrower margin in several key swing states like ohio, michigan, and pennsylvania, so trump really needs a big win to turn that around, and is not clear he got one. cnn pulled voters. 53% of them said biden won. only 39% said trump did. right now, it seems the narrative has not changed and it is still the democratic candidate joe biden who is ahead in this race. anna: not long to go. thank you. kailey joining us live from new york with the latest on the last presidential debate. sticking with that election thing, let's get to our morning calls. juliette saly joins us from singapore. this time for european renewables, what is the focus, juliette? juliette: absolutely. this is a call from jeffrey's. we know that it could lead to more physical spendings, which jeffries is saying could be higher inflation. they are looking at potent

yvonne: kailey leinz joining us from new york with the latest., president trump's covid-19 diagnosis throwing a curveball into the markets. how this might affect oil markets. fromnda: next, we hear credit suisse about how investing strategies will shift in the development of the u.s. and brexit talks. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: back to the markets. asian stocks trading higher, suggesting investors have already accepted covid-19 infection of president trump. meanwhile, how speaker pelosi saying negotiations on new spending will go ahead and the trump diagnosis might change talks by emphasizing the seriousness of the pandemic. joining us is john woods, asia-pacific cio at credit suisse. newsiday, we saw this big and some say it was a game changer for markets that changed the dynamics of the election. now we see resilience across the board. what are you telling clients this morning? clients,haring with the likelihood that volatility will remain extremely high. as you point out, one minute we are seeing stock waves -- shockwaves. the next minute, w

kailey leinz is here with more. >> forget any kind of stalemate when it comes to risks surrounding theividual -- presidential election. time now 5% over that above the 3500 level getting closer and closer to those all-time highs. part of this may be looking ahead to earnings season which kicks off in earnest tomorrow. what is leaving the market higher today is mega cab technology. take a look at the biggest point contributors to the nasdaq today. largely the usual suspects. 5g launch anticipated tomorrow. historically has wrought a revenue boost to amazon's investors. what is lagging is energy and largely that has to do with today's declines in oil. we can see wti has fallen below that $40 a barrel level. volume was the highest in over a month. that drop has caused wti crude to breach its moving averages. today weighing on crude has been weighing on the energy space for the entire duration of this year. that is the supply and demand that has weighed on energy all across the industry. down.d refineries are all energy far and away the worst performer in the s&p 500 this year. look intomp

stephane monier, new york, tracking -- kailey leinz, tracking the president. the president pressed for a stimulus deal, saying the country needs fiscal aid. negotiations have been deadlocked over the size. for $2.2 pressuring trillion, secretary steven mnuchin has proposed 1.6 trillion. our guest, chief global strategist. as i look through the prism of risk from i say to myself, complete chaos has been averted. the dollar reacted appropriately, but the alpha for these markets is the fiscal stimulus. with complete chaos averted, what is your read? >> i think you are right that the fiscal deal is more important whether or not trump makes a quick recovery. my take on this trump issue it is only a tail risk he has to withdraw from the ballot. you should treat it as a tail risk as a participant of the market. is whether this focus on donald trump and covid-19 jeopardizes the fiscal deal and it does so. the probability of a fiscal deal before the election is very low. that is a problem for the market. do you not think with the president at walter reed, republicans a

haslinda: kailey leinz in new york there. still ahead we speak to the former high-level state department official in the clinton administration asked how a biden white house could shape relations with beijing. rom 21st century china -- later this hour. yvonne: just under four weeks to go until the u.s. election. we look at risk markets with the head of fixed income, just a head. this is bloomberg. ♪ haslinda: you are watching bloomberg markets asia. let's check on treasuries. yields are higher. 8.18.ve 10-year at 7 yields are at the highest levels in most in the month. with polls showing joe biden his lead against president trump. they are considering a democratic administration. that would push yields higher and curb appetites for asian bonds. joining us now is hayden briscoe head of ubs wealth management. good to have you with us. presidentiale debate and some say perhaps that changes nothing but biden, if he maintains his lead, how much of that has been factored into the bond markets? hayden: i think of the moment it is st

on the execution i think that kailey said a great thing to him at the oval office.were better the other way? and she said in some ways it's better this way because before people took for granted how great you were with the economy. >> i mean, so at that point more than 77,000 americans had died, and kushner tells you they had a conversation in the oval office and kellyanne conway's conclusion was it's better this way. >> kayleigh mcenany. sorry. kayleigh mcenany said it's better this way because people don't take you for dmant grante the economy anymore. >> the idea that you would say, let's embrace disaster and then you can come back from that and people will appreciate you in some way they would not if we had not had this disaster. the first time i heard that, i thought, is that possible? would the president ask that kind of question? how do i maneuver my way politically through this? and the answer is yes and that the press secretary would give this kind of answer. so where this all comes toget r together, we are on a collision course with history right now. and

for more, kailey leinz joins us from new york. so what do we know about the president's condition right now? what is the latest on what his doctors have been saying? >> his doctors tried to paint an upbeat picture, saying the president is improving and could be discharged as soon as later today, but the remarks were inconsistent and they withheld information. reporters theld president did indeed receive supplemental oxygen on friday. he had previously said he did not. point sayingt one his oxygen level dropped to 93%, which would be considered to be a severe case of covid. forquestion has been given three -- he has been given drugs. he has been given dexamethasone, k steroid used in morrissey rip patients. doctors from -- used for more severe patients. he actually contracted it a lot earlier than previously thought. there remains questions about the timeline about his condition and we are going to have to wait and see if he is indeed discharged back to the white house later today. good morning. the president took a surprise drive

for more on the vp debate, let's go to kailey leinz in new york.ore than last week's presidential debate. much more focused on policy as well. what were some of the key issues? >> covid-19 was the number one issue, an unavoidable issue given the president is currently ill with it. the candidates had to be very widely separated during this debate due to the pandemic. , let harris coming after mike pence and the trump administration on that issue. mike pence having to defend himself. he pressed kamala harris on everything from the supreme court to energy policy. there were a lot of questions that stayed unanswered. there were some key policy areas like china where they disagreed. harris saying the trade war is actually one the trump administration lost. it cost hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs. a lot of the conversation coming back to jobs and the economy, including the conversation on climate. policy,ugh there was will it make a difference in this election trajectory? vice presidential debates usually don't have that much influence. this

in a statement, her daughter kailey chambers said she was without food the entire time in zion and unableo take more than a step or two without collapsing. but on monday, the national park service said in a statement that courtier was able to leave of her own capability with minimal assistance. they declined to provide further information about her condition. >> what that was like, those 12 days, waiting and not seeing or hearing anyone. >> we were told at the time when we called her to ask very little because of her condition. and just to say we're here for you and we love you and just root her on and, you know, and that's what we basically did. and i'm sure she has some great story to tell everyone. but we don't quite know it yet. >> reporter: according to the national park service, law enforcement officers were acting on a tip from a park visitor when they found her in a thickly vegetated area along the virgin river. her family confirms she was released from the hospital the same day and flew back to california last night. >> i want to see her and give her a hug and tell her how much i

. >> reporter: for nearly two weeks holly courtier's daughter kailey chambers held out hope that heralive. she spoke to our los angeles affiliate k cbs while searching last week. >> i know she would not give up on me. so i refuse to give up on her. >> reporter: courtier reported missing two days after she failed to board a shuttle bus outside the park. she left no travel itinerary and had no cell phone with her. she had recently lost her job as the naen due to the pandemic and was traveling visiting historic national parks. search and rescue teams scoured rough teheran to find the 38-year-old and used the help of drone as well as canine units. sunday park officials downed her after they received a credible tip from a visitor that she had seen courtier from within the park. she was reunited with and left the park with her family. they did not give additional details an her condition. courtier's family turned doubt request for interview. in a statement saiding we are overjoyed that she was found safely. this wouldn't have been possible without the network of people who came together. c