guy: can we talk for a moment before we get to ism about kailey leinz's feelings about brady? aughter] kailey: i think everyone knows them at this point. the stats argue for themselves. is he my favorite person? no, but congratulations to him on an incredible 22 seasons. guy: let's talk about the data hitting the bloomberg right now. ism numbers dropping, plus jolts as well. the ism traditional manufacturing, 58 point six. it is a drop from 58.7. this got up into the 90's, then faded quite significant lee. prices paid comes in at 76.1. new orders, 57 .9, a slight fade from last time. the employment index comes in at 54.5. jolts comes in ahead of expectations. we were expecting 10.3 million. we get 10.9. the prior number has also been revised higher. some pretty solid numbers here. if you are looking for an inflationary narrative, it is a tight labor market continuing with inflation maintaining its presence in a big way. the prices paid component in the ism certainly something to pay attention to. kailey: and something central bankers are going to be paying attention to as well.

tom: this deals perfectly with what kailey leinz said about 198 2. story, and the year 2000, 4.x% up, i believe you can add those numbers together and do simple math. federal employees up 9% over a 24 month period long ago. will we see that? jonathan:jonathan: will they feel good about 4% to 5% nominal? tom: this is really important behavioral economics. it's not that they will feel good, jon, if they won't feel miserable. the goal is not to be miserable. the memory of that is the 1930's and the united kingdom. jonathan: we see the consumer sentiment numbers right now not supportive at all, not supportive at all. tom: the goal is not to go to omg, i got a huge pay raise, but to move away from the desperation of going nowhere. jack fitzpatrick joins us. the president acts according to the washington post on a 4% lift. your thoughts? jack: not necessarily surprising. keep in mind, this would be a proposal for fiscal 2023. we are kind of getting into a longer-term conversation about how inflation and inflation expectations play into federal spending. i'

i'm kailey leinz, with guy johnson in london. alix steel is off. i get the sense you like my rhyme.uy: ships and chips. you want to make sure you say that properly, don't you? we're doing an awful lot of that. port of l.a., we are focusing there. i think we've got xpo on as well, so we are definitely in the shipping, trucking kind of genre today. i guess it is front and center as we make our way towards that cpi tomorrow. we're just getting the wholesale inventory numbers coming through. the headline number is the month on month number, the december final number. is actually a little bit stronger than the parliamentary number, at 2.2. we are seeing continuing strength, continuing pickups in terms of the inventory we are seeing, where it has held within the supply chain. wholesale coming in a little weaker, but the inventory number is fascinating because we are well above the historic norms. companies clearly have decided supply chains are a major problem, and as a result of which, continue to hold significant amounts of inventory. this leads us to our question of the day. would hot

kailey leinz in new york. this is "bloomberg markets."he stoxx 600, up by another 0.6%. the rally off the lows continues. the real action is elsewhere. foreign exchange and what is happening in the bond market really the story right now. euro sterling encapsulates the story here in europe. we got in place and data out of europe. we will talk about that and the eurozone in just a moment. stronger than anticipated. is the ecb going to hike? how much further will the bank of england go? does that pair continue to selloff? then i think you get to the real story, and that is digging deeper into what is happening with the ecb. the german two-year now -45. we are inside -50 that the ecb key rate has, and that tells a story, and a signal is sent. maybe the ecb is going to deliver some hikes this year. certainly price. simon french, chief economist of panmure gordon, is going to debate this very issue. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: european stocks continue to climb on good volume. the countdown to the close starts right now. >> the countdown is on in

from new york, with tom keene and kailey leinz, and jonathan ferro.es are a little bit negative on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, down a little more than 0.1%. yields are unchanged going into the cpi print in one hour and 12 minutes. 1.93% on tens. tom: there it is, it is inflation. we will have that for you in an hour and x number of minutes. right now, we will do ukraine or this and that, but today we are going to sit on this important inflation report. jack fitzpatrick joins us with bloomberg government. is there a difference in inflation analysis between the right and the left? jack: i don't know that there is necessarily a difference. when i talk to people on capitol hill, when you hear the way the president addresses it, i'm not sure there's a difference in analysis. there's a difference in focus in how it translates to legislation , and how people develop their opinions about it, but i think generally when you hear from lawmakers debating how this plays into build back better, they are more or less debating the same kind of set of numbers. i don't

jonathan: let's get you some single names and say hello to kailey leinz. u talked about how oil is moving lower. a lot of oil and energy stocks are under pressure in premarket trading. resources down 4.5%. marathon oil down 3.5%. one group of stocks moving to the upside is anything tied to cryptocurrencies but as you have big gains for crypto. there are some earnings stories out there as well. one was reported after the bell yesterday, really bullish outlook topping analyst's forecasts with analysts quick to raise their price target as a result. that is up 10%. this is a 13 story. buying into the electric trust maker. after a 6.5% gain yesterday it is higher by 5.5 percent this morning. and finally a russian e-commerce company in the u.s. now 25% year-to-date. really under pressure in recent weeks along with russian equities broadly due to geopolitical tensions regarding ukraine. with better headlines this morning some relief is coming into that stock which is higher by more than 10% before the bell. tom: thank you. i learn every time when you talk to me ab

there was a lot of chat in the office that kailey leinz is wearing red for valentine's day. we think maybe it was orange. this is bloomberg. ♪ kailey: we are about an hour into the u.s. trading. abigail doolittle is tracking the moves. maybe traders have a super bowl monday hangovers but we can't make up our mind. abigail: we are down, up, down once again. not all investors are doing this but this goes along with the geopolitical tensions. the dow had been down the same amount it is down, .8% and then a bit of a recovery. ananda -- the nasdaq index was up and no down. right now, geopolitical tensions between ukraine and russia intensifying and then lessening. this shows in the markets, a mixed picture. the s&p 500 down .4% off of the lows. the vix not so long ago, about 30 but now at 29 but elevated. a bid for bonds, the 10 year yield, to year yield up to basis points. finally, interestingly, not supporting a real risk off picture appeared the end basically flat. this is the same picture -- risk off picture. basically flat. when ukraine-russia tensions were up, oil was up. yo

kailey leinz in for 'bramo today on a most different thursday. in 30 minutes, the nation receives an inflation report. jonathan: the range of estimates anywhere from 7% to 7.6% at the high-end. 7.2% is the median. two-year yields pulled back a little bit, close to the highs of the last 12 months. tom: the quality of the conversations as we see in the opening, rebecca patterson, the pros are looking forward, and it is foggy. as lisa shalett says, it is hazy out there. jonathan: march, the fed is ready to move. somewhere, maybe they keep going. after that, who knows? tom: kailey leinz joining us today, giving perspective on 1982. the grateful dead, 1982, alabama get away with their opening song. it was great. whether it is alabama, washington, this nation is gripped by higher inflation. kailey: if we do get an upside surprise, how to the message around inflation? it is not reading through yet. it is something that has consistently dodged this presidency. tom: forget about the headlines. what do you see of industrial america? kailey: it comes back t

a trim in this with kailey leinz and the head of pioneer who basically said i don't care if it is $100red $50, $200, this time around we are going to be much more disciplined about drilling for more crude. tom: go to romaine, please, because a big one is landing at heathrow. [laughter] jonathan: you're watching big jet tv, still? tom: it is like a boeing something, maybe a 747. i don't know. jonathan: you just focus on that. tom: thank you. jonathan: let's get you some single names moving. good morning to romaine. romaine: we will give tom a little bit a break here. keep an eye on the big cap tech stocks. we have been talking about the drawdown we have had in this market. i think yesterday was a reminder that a lot of these big cap tech stocks are still mired in correction. you have seen a lot of those big caps on names that -- be cap faang names falling out of favor. facebook down more than 45% from the all-time high, now dropping out of the top 10 with regards to the rankings of the most valuable companies by market value out there. it will be interesting to see what the next leg up

from new york, and kailey leinz, with guy johnson in london. alix steel is off today. it has been another incredibly long week, and you are a couple of hours away from a vacation. 98 --8 assuming -- guy: assuming the weather allows anyone in the u.k. to leave their house. i'm not getting home tonight with any ease. i love a tractor. we will talk deere a little later in the program. "oh deere" also good. kailey leinz should be a rapper. you are talking about what is happening with the housing market. we will talk more about this later on. the data bouncing back, rising 6.7%, so the data confirming that we are seeing a continuation of a very strong housing market. we have seen mortgage rates going up and going up quite rapidly. this affects the fed decision. you do wonder whether people are front running that. we will think about it a little deeper. i love to dig as well. let's go to our question of the day. i have to say i've got a view on this. how do you manage risk over a long weekend? i think a lot of people are conjuring with this as a problem right now. i feel thi

from new york, i'm kailey leinz. , with guy johnson in london alix steel -- i'm kailey leinz, with guy johnson in london. alix steel is off today. welcome to "bloomberg markets." guy: contrasting those first two headlines is really interesting. inflation, the second headline, quantifiable. we can figure that out. that is risk. the market can say if we get this outcome, we do this. if we get that outcome, we do that. russia and ukraine is really difficult. it seems as if the market is basically pricing risk on, risk off. because war in europe is totally unquantifiable. lots of uncertainty. our question of the day tries to address this. is russian risk overpriced? i don't understand the answer to that. i don't even in some ways understand the question. i know it was one we created, but nevertheless, trying to figure this one out is really difficult for the markets right now. let's try to kick it around a little bit. bloomberg's vincent cignarella joining us. bloomberg's damian sassower joining us as well. it is fascinating watching these big themes play out. you've got inflation on one h

i'm kailey leinz with dani burger in london. alix steel and guy johnson are off. the market is tried to figure out how much relief they can take from the events of the last 48 hours. dani: exactly. i love how rich ross at evercore isi described it. the seeds that started this downward draft, they are still there. in essence, it doesn't really matter what happens with russia. there will still be declines to come. kailey: that brings us to the question of the day. how much is russia actually dictating what is going on with risk assets? we have some great correspondence here from bloomberg to join us for that. dani: we have bloomberg markets editor kristine aquino and "bloomberg markets: the close" anchor romaine bostick. how much does the stock rally depend on some easing of tensions between russia and ukraine? kristine: i think it is definitely going to be helpful. we see these tensions de-escalate, but what started as not such a great year for stocks already really just made a lot worse by the fact that we now have to factor in geopolitics in addition to some of t

i'm romaine bostick, alongside caroline hyde and kailey leinz. we opened at the session here, nine: 30 a.m. new york time, and were talking about a nasdaq 100 that was heading into a bear market here. down as much as 3% here on the day but managed to finish the day higher by 3.4 percent, after we learned of the u.s. response to the incursion by russia into ukraine. at least among song investors, they claimed to not be as damaging to the global economy as some people had started to price into the market a little bit earlier. the s&p 500 was also down on the day. it still remains around correction territory there, but finished the day higher by one .5%. the dow jones industrial average opened in correction territory and managed to drag its way slightly out of it, calling it unchanged on the day. but that slide into haven assets we saw into treasuries and the dollar, that still helped to a certain extent. the index is up about .9% here, giving you a sense that people are still fleeing for some of those haven trades. at the bottom of your screen is t

him and back to the question of the day that kailey leinz was proposing, who is in charge, is it ther the central banks? we will see this being tested. let's bring christie back into the conversation. we saw this big move higher in yields earlier on and that is fading. do you think that is people backing off of those positions, waiting to see what she has to say. >> i think that is exactly it. it makes sense for markets to stall in anticipation of what lagarde is going to say and in anticipation of the possibility she pushes back against these feverish rate hikes we see. this is the ecb playbook in a lot of ways. deliver a punching message at the rate decision and press conference and see how that plays through markets and adjust the message and provide new ones and opportunities to speak eventually, following the meeting. kailey: the message from christine lagarde in the past has been it is not her and the ecb's job to close spreads. how much more could we see spreads why did not before they get uncomfortable? kristine: in the context of the covid era, we are still below those level

let's get to kailey leinz. kailey: what was a $900 billion company as of yesterday is more like a $700 billion company come the opening bell in about two hours. meta-platform -- meta platforms cratering, down 22%. facebook user growth staggering for the first time ever. taking a hit from those apple rule changes. really, social media stocks across the board. snap reports after the bell today, twitter next week. they are down 15.4% and 7.2% respectively in premarket trading. users and subscribers is an issue for spotify. it is no longer just about that joe rogan drama. it's guidance really disappointing, down 10% after its report. qualcomm also on the back foot. it did beat on the top and bottom line. chip sales to smartphone makers are doing well, but it did not do as well in other areas cars or the internet of things. of course, it all tees up towards amazon after the bell today. sentiment not great going into that print. that stock is down about 3.6% in early hours. tom: of course, part of that advertising the

from new york, i'm kailey leinz, with tom mackenzie in london. alix steel and guy johnson are off.elcome to "bloomberg markets." happy friday. it has been quite a week, he week that will go down in history, and it is still not over. tom: we've had comments from lawmakers we have been keeping on. the data is breaking as well. just to shift momentarily away from the geopolitics, there's the overlap when it comes to the inflationary impact. coming in at 62.8, that is a solid beat. 62.8 from that michigan sentiment survey. kailey: a lot of economic data this morning and this afternoon, and that includes housing data. when you look at pending home sales for january, they fell 9.1% from the previous year, which was expected to be up by about 0.2%, so a little bit of softness starting to come through in the housing market, which in the u.s. has been persistently quite strong. i wonder how much the impact of higher mortgage rates has something to do with that. tom: that is certainly a discussion point in the u.k., where the bank of england is considering hiking a third time. let's get back

i'm kailey leinz, with guy johnson in london. welcome to "bloomberg markets."nflation and geopolitics once again at the forefront. guy: the retail sales number you referenced is really interesting. basically, we are in a situation where february was weak because of the pull forward effect, and then we get a strong number for january. i am trying to pull it all together can get a smooth picture of what is happening with the consumer. i go back to the michigan data which pointed to the idea the consumer is feeling the pinch right now, and as a result of which, you would expect them to be spending less, but that does not seem to be the case, though this number is not inflation-adjusted. i think this goes straight to the heart of our question of the day. from a corporate point of view, are you in a busy and where you effectively have to defend your top line or your bottom line -- in a position where you have to effectively defend your top line or your bottom line? are consumers going to start pushing back, and as a result of which, the top line gets hit, but your b

tom: kailey leinz was talking that up. i look at italy, it has the economy about the size of texas and it is a bellwether. explain to our audience in america why italy matters. jonathan: it has had the support of the ecb for a long time and that support is going to get pulled away over the next 12 months if the guidance from the ecb is anything to go by. tom: commercial banking in europe is going to be fascinating. what is the one day when negative yields become positive yields? jonathan: even the most hawkish member of the ecb thought this was important. teeing up q4 for a rate hike, 25 basis points and then again in the spring of 2023. what we are grappling with is going from nothing to something, and it is a big change for the europeans. lisa: going from worried about being -- keeping markets calm to more worried about inflation. they are now more concerned broadly about inflation which means are they going to act on the same foot on those italian spreads? jonathan: did you like that line from morgan stanley? it begins.

from new york i'm kailey leinz with guy johnson. alix steel is off today. you and i were just discussing it feels like it should be later in the week that it is. guy: it continues to be brutal and it continues to pull us in a different direction. do you get to percent by friday? you think we can expect that? a lot to get through between now and then. feels like a big number. you raised the question so let's dig into it. 2% is now in sight. historically to percent does not feel high but does it mean anything if we get to that kind of level? does 2% yield really do anything for these markets? let's kick it around a little bit. kaylee and i have been discussing it all morning. let's bring in creta group to -- kriti gupta and chief strategist for bloomberg intelligence. ira, let me start with you. does 2% mean anything? how quick do we get there and where do you think fair value even is right now? ira: three different questions. 2% does not mean a lot. if you look at most of the charts, we are right at 1.97% which is a very important technical level. above that

. ♪ dani: i'm dani burger, with kailey leinz, in for guy and a lix.he equity situation still deteriorating. we were rallying to start the morning, but as we head closer to the end of equity trading, that is now falling to 0.1%. headlines over cyberattacks in ukraine from russia start to deteriorate sentiment yet again. the ruble continues to weaken versus the dollar, just around $81. as we see options traders with 50% chance that that the ruble will fall to a record low versus the dollar. and concerns about a frozen nord stream 2, whether more sections will be put on the energy sector. natural gas in europe up some 9.5%. the energy crisis is one that continues to add into inflation, as we see in the u.s. the front end of the curve really push higher. kailey: that is something we continue to watch in the bond market. in the equity market, as you have seen that rolling over in europe, so have things rolled over after a technical correction, down more than 10% from its peak earlier on this year, and adding to those losses now. the s&p 500 down about 0.3%

i'm kailey leinz, with guy johnson in london. alix steel is off.arkets across the world now reconciling with those moves. guy: last week you must have had a busy week. the news changed over the weekend. certainly a much more aggressive tone coming out of d.c. and out of europe, a huge pivot from germany over the weekend. really, the biggest change you could argue in german foreign defense policy in 50 or 60 years. we've now got more sanctions coming from the bonded administration -- the biden administration. it is a similar story in europe. all of this continues as we watch the situation in ukraine develop. we are going to hear throughout this show a number of different angles on the key stories that markets are trying to grapple with right now. first of all, let's starting d.c. bloomberg's annmarie hordern is there for us. huge shift in policy out of d.c., from berlin, paris, london over the weekend. in terms of what we should expect, have the big salvos been fired? should we be expecting this type of pace in terms of the pressure being applied to

. ♪ kailey: live from new york i'm kailey leinz with guy johnson in london.ets have closed, the u.s. stock market still trading. we are off of the highs. abigail doolittle is tracking the moves. abigail: we have had so much volatility recently and another day of volatility. the nasdaq 100 at session highs. not so long ago dipping just slightly lower, now fractionally higher. anybody's guess as to how the day will end. clearly something going on beneath the surface. let's look at the big winners. as for the laggards there is one that is standing out. paypal plunging pretty poor percent after they reported disappointing. this stock getting punished, the worst day in its relatively young life. tesla down 3.7%. gm has outlined impressive plans to keep moving forward in the ev space. netflix down 6%. it reminds me of what is happening to paypal. many -- maybe people are selling to not be reminded of its massive decline. julia sciences down 4.8%. there outlook is disappointing. the day started off with a positive note. let's look at what was rolling the day at that

from new york, i'm kailey leinz, with guy johnson in london. alix steel is off today.elcome to "bloomberg markets." what a day. guy: honestly, i don't know which way to look. eve obviously got the news overnight. then you get into the bank of england. everyone expected 25 bps, but there's talk of 50. four members potentially looking at 50. then you get into the ecb press conference in christine lagarde just unable to repeat the phrase she talked about in the last press conference about how unlikely it is that rates are going to be going higher in 2022. as a result of which, massive moves in equity markets, bond markets, foreign-exchange, and credit. it goes on and on, so it is definitely one of those days. the ism data hitting the screen right now. this the services number, 59.9. that is down from 62.0, but we are dealing with omicron right now, and the services sector is more exposed to that. a little bit better than anticipated. factory orders come in bang in line with ex dictations. durable goods a little bit better than anticipated, but nevertheless, it looks like

i'm kailey leinz in new york, with guy johnson in london. alix steel is off. welcome to "bloomberg markets." guy: what i am really struggling with is what is noise and what is signal. there's a lot of noise out there at the moment. the market is definitely struggling to interpret what is going on. i think investors are struggling to price the risk here. risk and uncertainty, two very different things. very unquantifiable. i think people are focusing on the energy market, as you say, maybe pricing up some possibility that the fed goes 50. i think everyone is struggling to get a handle on what is happening here. the provocation coming from moscow is clear. the response from the west is also clear. signs of unity definitely working to defuse the situation, but on the other hand, the russians keep pushing. put keeps pushing -- putin keeps pushing. the tactic seems to flood the airwaves with expectation of eminent action, trying to highlight and pinpoint what is happening, trying to maybe talk about the fact that an invasion is imminent, hoping to defuse that very