tom: kailey leinz is all in. ging market index and em enjoys strong dollar as well. kailey: or it is getting brutalized by it. every asian currency is weaker against the dollar. the south korean won hit a 13 year low relative to the u.s. dollar. a lot of it has to do with not just a haven demand for the dollar but the weakness potentially coming from china. the chinese yuan offshore weakest levels since 2020. tom: with the stock blue man stock reset we will get to patrick armstrong -- stock blue and -- stock bloom and stock reset, we will get to patrick armstrong. maybe that's a signal with the trading day looks like. kailey: in line with risk -- jonathan: in line with risk more broadly. yields are much higher and that could lead to struggling on the s&p and the nasdaq. it is all about next week, chairman powell next friday in jackson hole. tom: i wonder if we are certain? i agree, jackson hole and all that, but maybe there is other noise? i agree, it's about europe, and i noticed that the netherlands net gas even

kailey leinz, look at inflation, looking at the political imperative. ng to see, as we are mystified where we are, the white house has to be mystified where we are. kailey: and they have to message around it. something tells me that the president will point to the price at the gas pump. it is coming down. tom: we will speak about oil, gasoline. then we will get back on the inflation script. michael mckee with a brief before that report in 45 minutes. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. former president trump has legal issues on two fronts. he will testify under oath in a new york investigation involving the valuation of his real estate holdings. this comes after his home was searched in florida. republicans echoed the assertion that the search was politically motivated. european sanctions have prevented russia from paying a transit feed to ukraine to let the oil pass through. now the hungarian refiner says it has paid the russian transit fee and oil will r

ferro missing all the excitement, kailey leinz is in for him. s stuck at an airport somewhere in italy. forget about inflation, it is merger monday. kailey: fascinating to see all of these deals be unleashed. we've also heard from pfizer, also hearing about a cvs deal. so many deals after the quiet of the previous month. they are opening up in force with what we have seen in stocks and the rebound we have seen in bonds. lisa: i've really gotta say, -- tom: the media is a waste disposal business. emerson is getting rid of this. i've got the quiet series. but the bottom line is this is again bolt on opportunity transaction, and here is the message: corporations are adjusting. whether it is pfizer or is whirlpool. you >> live in new york city and you have a go bridge -- garbage disposal? this is a whole other situation. whenever i go to an airbnb and they have a garbage disposal, i get very excited. this is coming at a time where you do have a real ambivalence, especially by ceos with the inflation, with the macro. considering the fact that they hav

i'm jonathan ferro with kailey leinz, bramo's out . yields are lower, about a basis point. ut of germany that is noticeable. kailey: yeah, the chancellor is speaking to energy -- speaking in berlin about energy, germany will be cutting the value-added tax on gas to 7%. they say it will last until the end of march 2024. governments in europe doing what they can to lessen the burden on consumers and energy prices are ushered on michael. jonathan: jumps out to me that it is march 2024. not next spring, were talking about going into 2024. tom: let's look at the calendar, you are looking at leaves changing color from canada to northern england. the third weekend in september. jonathan: don't know what that's about. tom: we should road trip woodstock, vermont. jonathan: would you like to do that? tom: but the weather is coming up. but that is to me advancement by scholz. 30 days, 50 days, 90 days, this is -- jonathan: i'm saying winter is coming for the european economy. tom: annmarie hordern with a brief look at washington. i understand that is sleeping washington right now. how

kailey leinz and for jonathan ferro.a and i were talking about it over breakfast at the saint regis yesterday. lisa, ferro has gone full european. this is not a one-day holiday. it's a substantial -- lisa: someone on twitter saying it is so european. tom: do we expect him on monday? kailey leinz with the short straw and joins us today. right now as usually anticipated for november book. when stephen roach writes a book on china, it has a focus and intent on the economics and politics like the weather. " accidental conflict: america, china and the clash of false narratives." it is hugely anticipated by the chinese watching community. the china center at yield law school. -- yale law school. why is this one different? mr. xi is going to the party congress. stephen: in the past five years we have gone from a trade war to tech wharton now -- war now. conflict is escalating. there is no real framework to manage this conflict effectively, let alone conceive of the slight assemblage of revolution -- resolution. the smallest spa

kailey leinz in for jon ferro.ould suggest what we have seen here today in the last couple days is flows and a lot of doubt about the persistency of the flows into equities. paul: and you've seen that in -- kailey: and you've seen the and the bank of america data put together. global can be funds fuld in through august 10 was the cpi day. $11.7 billion for the flows into bonds as well. 4.3 billion dollars polled out of cash. if you are triple leveraged all-cash, seems like you might be the only one because a lot of people are putting money to work. tom: i would say that is right, it is a lonely position. drew matus joins us to sort this out. he is the chief market strategist at metlife but that barely describes what he and maury harris did at ubs years ago and the depths of the great financial crisis -- in the depths of the great financial crisis where they suggested the american economy would pieced together and would be resilient and move forward over the coming decade. i look at the moment we are in right now an

tom: kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro. i thought he was back from naples. i guess he is not back. we will try to get him back tomorrow. kailey: he's not coming back, tom. tom: he told me that a couple of days ago, i'm never coming back. thank you for joining us to start off the show this morning. to me it is the partition of david rosenberg, the giant of toronto would say. there's many different parts of inflation that matter. kailey: and we will of course get a read through those different components yesterday. how much does the headline come down because a lower food and gas prices, and how much does everything else proved to be a bit stickier? crossing the terminal just now, the percent of business owners that reported inflation with their single most important problem, 37%, the highest since the fourth quarter of 1979. tom: that is good data that shows the spirit of small business. the separation from big business, i don't know what to make of this. some companies seem to be getting by. this morning, kailey talking about micron and others having. a tough time of it nvidia yeste

kailey leinz had a great question today. will jackson hole get grizzly?'m listening to what george has to say, a relatively dovish week, i think there is a big possibility that could be the case. she said get the 4%, potentially we stay there, we look at the labor markets., claims data today. kailey: and you have gdp speakers out today as well. it will be interesting. i'm so looking at everything they said, so will it change direction only for chair powell tomorrow? guy: it will be a feature of the last few days. i think we are waiting for powell tomorrow. i have had a number of fed speakers. in aggregate, it is very quickly. let's talk to mike mckee. he is the economics and porro does policy corresponded joining us from jackson hole. what do you think? michael: at wall street you see the bears today, but they don't out here you don't see the bears. i would assume at this point the fed is not going to have a measure that would encourage people to sell their assets. but they would not mind if they do, because if they cut financed desk if they tighten finan

kailey leinz in today.is not double-digit inflation in spain or america, but double-digit inflation in your united kingdom. i was shocked. jonathan: double-digit cpi moving in the front end of the yield curve, yields up by more than 20 basis points. that's the thing, yields higher in do can germany, stateside equities lower. tom: and you can see how the bank of england is represented at jackson hole when we traveled there that next week. like jobs report and cpi report, i'm sorry, retail sales matter. jonathan: it is a big print, coming up and 29 minutes. a caution, you have to strip out gas. it is a month on month number. gas prices have come down, so that will distort the number a little bit. that is what to look for at 8:30, and then on to jackson hole next week. they said the risk is, given the interpretation of the fed meeting established when he does not think it was, and given the easing of financial conditions over the last months, which they think is unwarranted, the risk is that chairman powell ha

kailey leinz in for jon ferro today.ow, gas under four dollars a gallon, there is no one in america who writes a more detailed report across hydrocarbons then stephen short. he is principal of the short group and his report is absolutely definitive. let me go to one sentence of your report. new york harbor has the lowest inventory of hydrocarbons in a decade. why is that? >> it is the lack of refinery capacity. i'm in philadelphia, 13 miles down the road from office. we used to produce enough gasoline each day to provide more than -- that was a key supplier. why is new york harbor so important? we certainly have the ingredients. tom: that is a window, schork is a genius on the details of supply and flow. what you see in your madness about demand? stephen: right now it is to keep lower oil prices. we're looking at demand destruction year-over-year, more than 400,000 barrels lower a-day, 5%. we look at demand relative to seasonal norms, we looking at demand destruction that is nearly 200,000 barrels a day, 2% below normal.

i am kailey leinz with guy johnson. alix steel is off. welcome to "bloomberg markets." she picked a good day to be off. guy: from a u.s. perspective, i would agree with you. from a european perspective, this will be quite a busy week. it seems as though things are stepping up in ukraine. you have the energy crisis which you referenced in the headlines. tomorrow, we get pmi data. 47.9 comes from morgan stanley. i wonder if the narrative with the market numbers will be fairly bad. that would certainly fit the bill in terms of the data we are getting elsewhere. our question of the day is a fairly straightforward one. should we be working this week? should we be taking our notes from alix steel? should this be a one day work week? should we just be focusing on friday and the speech from jay powell at jackson hole? i think there is plenty going on. i think what is happening in the energy markets will be critical. if you are sitting in the u.s. right now, is it all about powell? putting all the stuff aside from what is happening in your, is this the main event? mike mckee joi

tom: kailey leinz, think you so much in new york.here are people, there are signposts along the way. there is research where you stop and say, that was a number of months ago with pre-missouri, truly one of the great cause of 2022, on the dynamics of the yield curve. readjust here off of powell's speech. readjust the dynamic between the short term two year yield and the benchmark 10 year. >> sure, thanks for having me. the front-end is all about near term. i think we got a few clues from powell's comments today. he is acknowledging there could be pain ahead, and that suggests tolerance. he is also talking about being restrictive for quite some time. the idea that the fed will take rates up to terminal and quickly retreat, he is pushing back against that. that front end is still biased higher. we are looking for rates to continue to rise. 3.7 5%, or something in that range. i think the long end is a lot more accurate. i don't think long-term neutral rate is higher. there could be a higher short-term neutral rate, but the long-term neu

i'm kailey leinz with guy johnson london. alix steel is off today. welcome to bloomberg markets. what a jobs report. guy: we were debating before the number hit what kind of figure we could see. we were way too low. participation is doing what it's doing. that is not recession on it, this is recession off. kailey: you are seeing that in the bond market. the two year yield is up 17 basis points. the market thinks it's more likely the fed will move another 75 basis points rather than 50. we've gotten the reaction from the white house. just moments ago, the labor secretary was on bloomberg television. here is his reaction. >> most of the economy has recovered. the jobs that companies had it pre-pandemic have returned. it shows good gains. we have had good wage growth. manufacturing is one of those areas where we have seen this come back. kailey: let's dive into the numbers. blowing it out of the water in so many ways. mike: it's like going into a restaurant and the portion comes huge. are we supposed to eat that? 528 thousand jobs created, 250 was the forecast. it's much higher than

kailey leinz is the cleanup to early. you are doing a more european show that we are. is there a belief the hydrocarbon disaster of europe can move over to the united states? kailey: i think there is a sense the united states will be relatively more insulated. europe is dealing with an energy crisis that could get worse beginning today with part of the rhine river becoming impassable for cargo. tom: i don't need a tour guide here. i'm scheduled to take the tour in 2025 to go castle watching. we can't get coal so net gas goes up, right? kailey: exactly and that's the problem europe is facing. it's an energy driven inflationary shock, one that the ecb is poised to do little about on the supply side. they are still trying to hike rates into an economy weakening due to the same energy crisis and the high cost of living. tom: lisa says get to the data check. futures up 13. dow futures up 99. vix, 20.19 shows a resiliency of equities. we have less curve inversion now. a negative 34 basis points is important. i don't know who is doing the real yield. .38% on a friday. we need

kailey leinz. let's talk about where we are with the markets. first world problems, as we say.uropean markets, cruising quietly into the close. ftse 100 is down a little bit, cac's up little bit. you also have the regional factor in the luxury factor. i have to say, and caleb was pointing this out, volumes are light. we are basically just waiting for jackson hole. people may be not prepared to take that much risk in terms of their positions into what jay powell is going to say. we will carry that speech live and in full on friday. the close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: so, we are wrapping up the session in europe. if ourselves in a position where i think there is not that much to talk about. there is a fantastic function on the bloomberg that is avac, and it shows you what is happening with the volume relative to the average. it is a little on the light side today. it is the back end of august. plenty of people remain on vacation. next we could be worse. we will wait to see what happens. nevertheless, we find ourselves with an equity market on the quiet side. the luxury s

i'm kailey leinz with guy johnson in london, alix steel is off today. guy, happy taiwan tuesday. guy: it will be interesting to see whether it is a happy day. we will find out later on. pushback to 45, we will watch what happens and what reaction we get from the chinese later on. you were talking about fed speak -- let's focus on that, mary daly talking a few moments ago out of san francisco, raising the idea that feds -- the fed is looking at the data and rate hikes thus far. whether that could be possible, but she certainly says as well that the job is far from done. the data comes in softer than anticipated. 10,698,000 is where we stand, the market was looking for around 11 million. the previous number revised to touch higher, so we are seeing a slowdown in the job openings, but they remain at historical highs. one needs to be aware of that as well. let's look at what is going on under the hood, what the jobs market is telling us. this of course ahead of the payroll numbers we are looking for friday. we are expecting to see a slowdown and will be looking carefully at what is h

. >> noble laureate in economics speaking with bloomberg's kailey leinz. chair has been suspended as the prime minister determines whether he violated the new charger produced by his allies. that's get the details from our bloomberg editor. what is the latest we know? this is quite an extraordinary situation. >> it's actually not an entirely unexpected situation. he has served eight years since the military coup. but under the constitution that he wrote, it would be the prime minister's norm. so the surprising thing is the court actually took the petition because the constitution and thailand typically cited -- sided with the monetary elite. so, it's not a huge switch because the prime minister -- and one-for-one. he was also the supreme leader and right alongside him when they seized power and is the former chief. it's sort of, if you like, it's leading away from his popularity. >> exactly, let's talk a little bit about that. this is a cohort, the members have been appointed by the military appointed senate. what does it tell us about the type power broke