john williams, robert kaplan. put them in the category of likely to vote in favor of cutting. eric rosengren last night says he still does not see the case for doing that. board bowman from the fed gave a speech today, avoided the subject -- it was a different topic. still to come, jay powell and neel kashkari. neel kashkari, you can put him into the likely to cut category. six people have spoken today who are basically all saying, we are where we were a couple weeks ago. the big one is jay powell on friday. amanda: it feels like we have come a long way from the days where greenspan used to joke about how he was not allowed to say. to be very quiet, not signaling. this is a very noisy fed. is that helpful to the market? mike: it does not seem to be helping. many people are saying that they wish they would speak left. -- speak less. what we have seen is the fed is divided into two groups, those who are waiting to see what happens, because they don't think -- that the economy has turned down yet, at least in the data. and those that think we should act preemptively. that is the

honor to welcome our distinguished guests, so many here today at william & mary and to our beloved kaplan arena. i'm enormously proud to introduce our keynote speaker today, william & mary's 24th chancellor the honorable robert m gates. chancellor gates is the model for statesmanship we look to now and to the future. he's dedicated his career to service, serving eight u.s. presidents. he leads with a restless and compassionate

williams, evans, kaplan. tuesday, u.s. consumer confidence numbers and german epfo data.ly on friday, u.s. personal income and spending numbers. with me around the table still is priya misra, diana amoa, and krishna memani. priya, i want to sing your praises, because you have been talking about this for the best part of 12 months. the issues that we see this week in the repo market, and you are not putting it down to corporate pulling money from market money funds with a load of treasure insurance, you have been talking about this for a while. it comes down to reserves. walk me through the dynamic. why is it so important? and it is a problem that needs addressing now. priya: sure. it's a question of reserve scarcity in aggregate, but it is really the distribution of reserves. the number of excess reserves in the system is about 1.3 trillion. the fed has been saying perhaps 900 billion to one trillion is enough. so therefore we are in an excess reserve regime, and therefore, they can let reserves fall. and reserves have been falling for quite some time. most of it was beca

kaplan robin lynne kaplan alvin peter kappelmann jr. charles karczewski william a.nes douglas gene karpiloff charles l. kasper andrew k. kates john katsimatides robert michael kaulfers don jerome kauth jr. hideya kawauchi edward t. keane richard m. keane lisa yvonne kearney-griffin karol ann keasler barbara a. keating paul hanlon keating leo russell keene iii joseph john keller peter r. kellerman joseph p. kellett frederick h. kelley jr. james joseph kelly joseph a. kelly maurice p. kelly john kelly jr. thomas michael kelly thomas richard kelly thomas w. kelly timothy colin kelly william hill kelly jr. robert clinton kennedy >> and my cousin, alfred. >> and my brother firefighter paul. i lived right down the street. ran into the fire house ran into a burning building and never came out. we're proud of him and we miss him every single day. thomas j. kennedy >> yvonne kennedy john r. keohane ralph francis kershaw ronald t. kerwin howard l. kestenbaum douglas d. ketcham ruth ellen ketler boris khalif norma cruz khan sarah khan taimour firaz khan rajesh khandelwal seila

steven kaplan, thank you for being here. >> you're welcome. great to be here. ashley: all right.'s take a look at the big board as we head towards the close on this friday. the dow, it's certainly off session lows but still on the downside, down 120 points at 26,770. shares of las vegas sands, they are on the rise. investors placing their bets ahead of the casino operator joining the s&p 500 next week. the stock up, as you can see, 2.25% at $57.14. apple taking its own gamble on hollywood. coming up next, how the tech giant is making plans to achieve total domination on all screens. hand-held, little and big. we will explain. that's next on "the claman countdown." each day a little sweeter. adp simplifies hr, benefits, and payroll for magnolia bakery, so employees like sarah can achieve what they're working for. now you can, with shipsticks.com! no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks.com makes it fast & easy to get to your golf destination. with just a few clicks or a p

as it ktvu's kristin kaplan reports a judge is allowing the decision to proceed but the fight is far from over. >> reporter: inside a san francisco courtroom neighbors along the embarcadero asked the judge to temporarily block the construction of the center. the judge declined to stop construction now but agree to have both sides return to court monday september 23 to debate the issue. >> i really don't have any showing of irreparable harm here and that is not only a critical component but essential component to the court granting emergency injunctivecity has no received approval from the state lands commission to build it. >> it is violating law every day that it is proceeding with construction this project without complying with the law that it helped draft. they rel reading in part we are pleased the judge denied request to stop construction of this needed shelter. this project has undergone all the required environmental review and all appropriate land- use laws were followed. the project will have a negative impact on the area it says president lee. >> it is a low barrier shelte

. >> o'donnell: your reporting, oong with producer michael kaplan, getting results.lly incredible. thank you, jim. >> reporter: thank you. >> o'donnell: coming up, prince harry follows his mother's historic footsteps. footsteps. so we make the most of it when the sun does shine. that's why bp is partnering with lightsource, europe's largest solar company. and should the weather change, yet again, our natural gas can step in. to keep the power flowing and the lights shining. no matter the forecast. at bp, we see possibilities everywhere. to help the world keep advancing. cdc guidance recommends topical pain relievers first... like salonpas patch large. it's powerful, fda-approved to relieve moderate pain for up to 12 hours, yet non-addictive and gentle on the body. salonpas. it's good medicine. hisamitsu. imagine a world where nothing gets in the way of doing great work. where an american icon uses the latest hr tools to stay true to the family recipe. where a music studio spends less time on hr and payroll, and more time crafting that perfect sound. where the nation'

robert kaplan speaking at an event, saying negative rates abroad reflects pessimism on the outlook. is a low chance of recession. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ - custom ink helps us motivate our students with custom gear. we love how custom ink takes care of everything we need so we can focus on the kids. - [spokeswoman] custom ink has hundreds of products to make you look and feel like a team. upload your logo or start your design today at customink.com beyond the routine checkups. beyond the not-so-routine cases. comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. all working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gig-speed network. because beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. >> trade wars are not good for anyone. they are not good for the u.s., china, to the emerging markets. while globalization has been great, and trade has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, there is the other side of that around protec

rob kaplan was speaking today and after his speech, he talked to reporters. on to say he is waiting dayee if weak macroeconomic , the kind of thing john williams was talking about, business investment and more, is starting to filter into consumer spending. he says if you wait to see consumer weakness, it may be too late. paul: what are the reasons than for fed officials to be worried? tohleen: let's get right that. a big drop in consumer sentiment last week. if consumers are not so optimistic, how much are they going to spend? we have this chart that shows two consumer confidence numbers. look at the white line from the university of michigan, the newer's numbers -- the newer numbers. see that plunge? going on.is perhaps trade war uncertainty hitting the consumer. the beige book out from the fed today saying consumer spending .as mixed some districts saw stronger spending, some solid weaker. ie inverted yield curve copy of minneapolis fed president well.ashkari as there are some people clearly looking at that rate cut door. paul: thanks very much for joining

he has opened the door to more rate cuts, mary daly, robert kaplan, loretta mester not but there is so terms of what -- there were seven fed officials. least one more rate cuts so i think he is trying to signal it could happen. paul: let's talk about other central banks. three in asia. kathleen: we might get some action. the economics team is looking for that. let's not start with someone expected to do anything, someone who has done a lot, the reserve bank of new zealand. the last move, 50 basis points. before that, 25. they can hold key rates steady. the bank of thailand could cut again to build on the surprise move in august that really did have impact in terms of what investors are expecting. isthe philippines, the rate below the 2% to 4% range. this gets them to move so we could get too out of three who will cut. the global march to lower rates continuing and governor kuroda speaking thursday. after he has hinted he is open to easier policy if needed, everyone is waiting to see how and if he elaborates on that. hays, thank you for joining us. the offshore yuan has strengthened on

robert kaplan on thursday. five fed speakers b follfollowe two on friday. >> is it too much fed speak? never for you, i know that >> does the market misprice the fed for that i don't think we have too much fed speak for that people know to listen to certain people on the fed. that begins with the fed chairman >> all right, steve. >> markets are calm today. there could be a storm on the horiz horizon. bob. >> hello bullard was talking about a sharper than expected slowdown that it could be possible. we may be seeing that in europe. those flash manufacture pmi numbers lowest level in ten years. germany may be close to a recession. u.s. stocks have dramatically out performed europe again mixed performance today for u.s. stocks kat is having a great month. generally missed netflix down 10% in three days drop big on friday a lot of choices for consumers back to you. >>> as we inch closer to the end of the month and the fourth quarter, is this just a calm before the storm gentlemen, welcome david, let me begin with y

robert kaplan made a good point when he said if we wait for the u.s.r to turn, it is too late. could you share that view? u.s. consumer,e if it turns, you mean the market reaction. definitely. we think the monetary policy works for at least one year. when you start to see consumer that proceeds a recession. it will be too late. in july.had cut they will cut in september as well. monetary policy works with a lag. they want to be ahead. athink they will projected dovish tone. to act before the worst case scenario. basis point cuts for the economy driven by consumers? aren't rates low enough already? isn't the fed just reacting to markets? think it wouldi not be very positive for the overall economy. i think it is a signal they don't need to worry about interest rates going up. quite a -- if they project a the next 12s over months or so, that is quite helpful. borrowing costs, financial conditions. i think that would be helpful to consumer, business sentiment. it could be helpful. i'm not saying it will be like a game changer. >> she is staying with us. n

we know a few members of the fed including kaplan suggested until retail sales get wobbly he shouldn'take any action? >> overall composition of the fomc a lot of people are not excited but i think a few more cuts are baked into the cake. i think next one is 25. i think they could do two or maybe three more cuts. beyond that i think it becomes problematic. the economy seems to be bouncing back. you saw the michigan sentiment numbers picking up. retail sales numbers in the third quarter, we'll be real close to 3% gdp number. those numbers are not suggesting any close to recession. inversion of the yield curve? what inversion? you're looking nine basis points difference between the 10-year and two year. that is healthy. charles: what is a difference a couple weeks make. >> what inversion? charles: liz, anthony, very much appreciate it. we'll follow the markets throughout the hour as we march towards the all-time highs. the massive split in the democratic party taking center stage last night as presidential hopefuls spar over health care. how much could this cost you? >>> 2020 presidential

i think the median guy in our forecast was rob kaplan and he's much more open minded now than he was in june he took a strong single from the yield curve inversion we have. we still get a lot of different views on this committee. it is a divided committee. but i think enough support for this insurance policy that it will be a clearer message than in july. >> take us to what that means for the markets, jim, what are the risks around this sort of either way in terms of positioning. >> well, what we've seen with the fed right now is the two biggest market moves we had since 1979 have been december presser and july presser it seems like we're all braced for another 500-point this afternoon because we already had two of them in the last eight months or so that's the immediate risk for the market right now i think going beyond that, he's going to have to satisfy the market that it has got a policy that it can agree with the market right now is still pricing at foreign rate cuts i don't know many economists that think we will have four rate cuts. i know people like to try to discount that i

then a few hours later, dallas fed president robert kaplan said he's watching to see if weakness in the economy intensifies and almost more importantly, what the psychological effect will be on the consumer. then minneapolis fed president neal kashkari says tariffs are causing nervousness for business and recession warning lights continue to flash. let me translate all of this. these three are all dovish. none of them outright said the economy's doing great, no need to cut rates, we need to preserve rate cuts for real trouble. they didn't say that. let me get to our floor show traders. time to play rosetta stones and translate. what they said that matters most to our viewers and maybe what translates into a vote either way of what kind of cut we will see. phil flynn, you're up first. >> i think they are saying they are going to do whatever it takes. if you read in between the lines, a lot of differing views on the economy. the one thing they had in common was basically looking at the entire situation, saying listen, we know there's problems out there, there's uncertainty about trade, th

is, i think bob kaplan said something to this effect, it will be too late for the consumer.bout that? robert: there is a deep question of what drives consumers. consumer confidence is what we talk about, but i think there are other facts and narratives. consumer confidence is a barometer, i suppose, but it does not describe the narrative. there have been narratives that are growing over the years that encourage consumption. the so-called american dream has been growing through time. that is an old phrase that refers to an outlook that it is ok to show off your wealth. in fact, you had better do it. that's the american way. the other thing that is piled onto this narrative is hyeon chung, our president, who has been writing books to explain how to live your life. one of his books is called think like a billionaire. so we have millions of americans trying to learn how to think like a billionaire. that certainly means acting like you are not impoverished. people spend money, they feel it is the time. i don't know how to predict these things, it could last for a long time, but i

. >> bret: kaplan, thank you. canada's leader is trying for the second day in a row to deal with an emerging scandal as he faces a tough reelection campaign. pictures have surfaced of prime minister justin trudeau outfitted in dark face makeup during social gatherings when he was younger. trudeau is now on his second round of apologies. correspondent laura ingle has our story. >> canadian prime minister justin trudeau expanding his apology today for what is now at least three past incidents of him wearing black and brown face. >> this is something that i deeply, deeply regret. >> this barely a day after trudeau, who is campaigning for reelection, initially confronted allegations on his campaign plane after "time" magazine published a photo of him from the west point gray academy. it shows trudeau, who was a teacher at the time, wearing a turban and robe with his face, neck, and hands completely darkened as he posed during arabian nights-themed party. >> i'm going to be asking canadians to forgive me for what i did

, apple unveilsp an aggressively priced set of new phones and kaplan -- and tablets but it's video serviceancine: good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." these are your markets.

kaplan is a society that is characterized by wage labor and market dependence. i say that in a pejorative way. you don't have to think so. that's the definition i will be operating from. before capitalism, feudalism was a dominant system across much of the world. people were divided between those who work the land to survive, and the small minority who appropriated the minorities through political coercion. peasants had access to their lands, however lord that used force to extract a portion of their yield. the system did not encourage innovation because as a peasants produced more most of it would go to the lord's. feudalism faced periodic crisis. the black plague which killed half of the population. and as soon as the continent recovered it was plunged into warfare. end result of the warfare was revolt. the ruling class reasserted its control in eastern europe where peasants had their autonomy stripped even further through extreme system of feudalism which is bounded into the states and criminalized flight. in france the peasants secured a de facto ownership o

david kaplan says we now have a front-runner for best actress at the next academy awards. >> singing. that is fabulous. next to an animated adventure from dreamworks. "abominable" a lush childhood adventure in which three friends discover a baby yeti on the roof of their apartment building. but in trying to get him back home, they have to stay one step ahead of the evil burnish who wants to capture young everest. >> there are people looking for you. >> go faster! >> you can do magic? >> this is amazing! >> this is impossible. >> i wish dad were here to see this. >> cute. and the critics were all happy to see this, giving "abominable" a solid 78% on rotten tomatoes. sarah stewart writes although the movie's conclusion may be foregone, it's still enjoyable getting there. andrew parker says, it's cute, enjoyable and has a lot of heart. could be a good one for the kids. >> great one for the kids. good one for adults, as well. >> could be a good one for you, kenneth. >> i may. i saw "it" last weekend so this could be quite the change. it was scary. i was scared. >> you cried. >> i didn't

over in the u.s., the spotlight will be on the dallas fed president, robert kaplan.will be the first of many fed speakers to take the stage today. at 3:00 p.m. u.k. time, it will all fed presidents, events will be closely watched for clues on fed policy ahead of its rate decision next month. you can follow them all on your bloomberg terminal. the united nations general assembly enters its next year's french budget will be released to the public. major tax cuts will be expected to appease the protests sweeping the country. we will bring you to exclusive interviews from bloomberg's global business forum. greek primeom the minister on the country's outlook for 2020. a lot to look forward to. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." i'm matt miller in berlin. interview,xclusive we talked about the revised share sale. >> our business in asia is amazing business. in china, we are number three in volume but number one in profitability by a wide margin. the ipo is to establish and create the local champion that could be the equal for the consolidation

craig kaplan tweeting this -- this one says chuck schumer, the democratic leader will speak on the senate floor at about 3:50. we passed that. you can follow that over on our companion network, c-span2. we're getting your thoughts on the potential impeachment of the president and the whistleblower complaint filed with the director of national intelligence. 202-748-2940, the line for democrats. 202-748-2941 for republicans. or all others, 202-748-8922. one more tweet before we go to calls. this is not a partisan matter. the president authorizing the release of the transcript of the phone call with the president of ukraine. let's hear from shawn in georgia. go ahead. caller: thanks for taking my call. yeah, i have a complaint. i mean, two things. number one, i agree with nancy pelosi, watching her today, they are looking for the facts to get the whistleblower information. they waited for the mueller report. they waited for basically to get the facts. for some reason, with all the things that this president has done, it's been swept under the rug by the republicans. i mean, what kind of coun

here is craig kaplan tweeting about the house.ingy leaders september house floor agenda in a dear colleagues letter. they plan to vote the week of september 16 on a clean continuing resolution to fund the government passed the past septembers-- 30 to avoid a shutdown. and from reuters, big impacts on privacy and antitrust. the house of representatives antitrust panel will hold hearings next week to discuss the effect of consumer data collection by big tech platforms ,ike alphabet's google, amazon on online top -- online competition. let's go next to mark in saint peters, missouri. republican line. caller: yes, i am calling just let you know that my most important public policy deals with immigration. i want you to know that i applaud president trump for doing something when the republicans and the democrats in congress, they just refuse and they fail to act on it. at the democratic presidential candidates, they are all -- at least a lot of them -- want open borders and are talking free health care and for the immigrants that are c

outright winner someone who gets 51 percent which is highly unlikely it goes to a runoff poll which kaplan's at some point after that and all of this of course will come with a different candidates accusing each other. gov stuffing ballot boxes etc so we can expect much more dislocation in the coming weeks which was always the argument for whether you should have an election or not some people say there's a further step towards a permanent kind of peace here in afghanistan for other people this just makes a precarious situation even worse rob many thanks i was in from abroad that live in kabul thousands of people on the streets in hong kong marking the 5th anniversary of the so-called umbrella movement police fired water cannon some of them some protesters tried to get through barriers blocking an entrance to the legislative council which has been evacuated some fires have been lit rallies are also showed you in other cities including london and washington d.c. a show of solidarity with prominent hong kong activists joshua wong announced that he's running for local office in an attempt to br

honor to welcome our distinguished guests, so many here today at william & mary and to our beloved kaplan arena. i'm enormously proud to introduce our keynote speaker today, william & mary's 24th chancellor the honorable robert m gates. chancellor gates is the model for statesmanship we look to now and to the future. he's dedicated his career to service, serving eight u.s. presidents. he leads with a restless and compassionate intelligence. his unwavering dedication to those who serve our nation with their lives earns the trust and devotion of the armed services. his career began early at william & mary. not many known that he drove the williamsburg james city school bus when he was a student and he was assistant troop leader for our local boy scouts and that senator norman was one of his boy scouts as we discovered last night. after graduating from william & mary in 1965, he joined the cia as an intelligence officer and was the first career officer to scale the agency's ranks to become its director. he served with presidents of texas a & m university from 2002-2006. when president bush c

not, but we will probably hear more about the repo issue and see if anyone else adds to what rob kaplan said yesterday. he is speaking again, that the u.s. is going to need more qe the next time we go into recession. alix: thank you very much. in washington, d.c., it is the threat of impeachment hanging over president trump. he's defending his phone call with the ukrainian leader, saying there was "no push, no pressure." pres. trump: the witchhunt continues, but they are getting hit hard on this witchhunt because when they look at the information, it's a joke. impeachment for that? when you have a wonderful meeting, or you have a wonderful phone conversation? alix: kevin cirilli joins us with more. what can we expect today? kevin: in just over an hour, the acting director of national intelligence is set to testify publicly before the house intelligence committee. he will face questions from the chairman of that committee, adam schiff, the democrat from california, about that whistleblower complaint that now several lawmakers have reviewed. democrats are saying this has only led to more

dallas fed chief robert kaplan says if the policymakers wait for spinning to we can before taking actionin economic growth in the second quarter means the economy is on track to expand this year. both south africa -- but south africa central bank does not have much room doubt sustain that. we talked with the central bank's governor. >> price stability is a necessary condition for balance and sustainable growth, but it is by no way a sufficient condition for balance and sustainable growth. we do believe from where we are standing that we don't have a money policy is still accommodative. renita: meanwhile, south africa's inflation rate dropped to 4% in july. that is the lowest in four months. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more 120 countries. i am renita young. jetblue shares yesterday fell the most since january. the airline cut their outlook on soft demand. revenue per average seat mile is one of those to gauge. guy johnson spoke with the company's coo. >> associate with puerto rico softness following som

in exchange, they are offering landing and take up spots at kaplan airport.ising equity and raining and expansion plans. the revenue in the world's biggest gambling hub fell for the second month in a row. they report that gaining revenue declined almost 10%. the are facing headwinds from protests in hong kong and regulatory uncertainty over highroller junkers. in theis coming down global insurance industry. as much as 75 by and dollars of business is shifting to financial rival centers in the european union. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: thank you, sebastian payne the hong kong government will not rule out imposing an emergency law to help contain protests. the unrest is becoming increasingly violent as it stretches into a fourth month with police and demonstrators clashing over the weekend with 63 people arrested. the hong kong police say 1117 people have been arrested since june 9. joining us is bloomberg's asia market anger at edinburgh palace in hong kong. where is the police calling the weekend unrest catastrophe? doesn't mean

, apple unveilsp an aggressively priced set of new phones and kaplan -- and tablets but it's video service steals the show. ♪ francine: good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." these are your markets. are looking for signs the u.s. and china are trying to temper some of the repercussions trade war is having. you can see euro stocks gaining 0.6%. the yen is also a good litmus 7.81and you can see one of -- 107.81. tomorrow, we also have the ecb to look out for. coming up, we speak to the former u.s. ambassador to the european union. don't miss that interview at 10:30 a.m. london time. we talk u.s. foreign-policy and brexit. let's get straight to the first word news. >> u.s. goods to be exempted from tariffs last year were announced by china at the top of the list are pharmaceuticals and lubricant oils. beijing is seeking to ease the impact from the trade dispute without lifting charges on agricultural item like soybeans and pork. the ministry of finance says further rounds of exemption will be released. morgan stanley's ceo warned against the fed cutting too easily but says

craig kaplan tweeting this --