karyn cavanaugh is still with us.n stanley and a bloomberg reporter. >> this is a very politicized issue, the with the u.s. economy strong, the trade deficit typically widens. the good news is you saw increases for both imports and exports, and i think that is a good sign for the u.s. and the global economy. alix: you are one of the most bullish economists i know in terms of the fed and the economy. , what does itcit do differs quarter gdp? >> definitely going to be a drag . we have fallen into that pattern again where looks like we will get a low first quarter gdp now. that happened for the last five years. looks like we will see five out of six. where we have seen softness in the first quarter is in trade and consumer spending. again, naturally, you go back to the last expansion and trade was consistently taking about a percentage point off of growth. as you said, as you have strong domestic demand, some of that is from overseas production. david: we saw the dip last year, and it came back up to what are you looking