neel kashkari said we are not done yet. tom: quite serious is a moment in british history.house of commons have weighed in. here is the prime minister of the united kingdom. >> chaos in the markets have wrecked the economy. >> mr. speaker, we face very difficult economic times. i have admitted the mistakes i've made but i won't apologize for the fact that we have helped households through this winter with the energy price guarantee and we have reversed the national insurance rise and we are taking action to get our railways running rather than being disrupted by trading. tom: the questions from the floor as the prime minister's weeks. as we go to lizzie burton, it's all over twitter, the gentleman from labor apparently -- a book is being written about the time of liz truss in office. apparently, it's going to be a christmas release date? lisa: liz truss made one promise about not having spending cuts for public spending and it took a week for that to go away. what is the point of a prime minister that don't even last a week? this has been a brutal session. lizzie burden is

the market is more obsessed with neel kashkari.le is 1.222, when is it going to take the pain of anarchy in the tory party? not much on the currency front, how much longer will liz truss be in number 10 downing is the m oot of the market, and dollar down on the news that quarantine may move from 10 days to seven days. juliette saly is dusting off her passport as we speak. dani: we can all meet in shanghai. csi 300 west down very significantly this morning, it is now a race, significantly in the green. u.s. futures also erasing losses , the dreaded unch on s&p 500 futures. nasdaq in the red underperforming, the fear is if oil prices are moving higher, the fed potentially has to clampdown and raise rates more aggressively, so duration equities will do poorly. europe still down .1%, manus. manus: lovely around up, let's talk about the fed. they struck that cautious tone in the beige book as it noted that u.s. economy grew modestly with risk of recession rising, and outlooks undimming. the minneapolis fed president kashkari said the ba

do you think kashkari is alone in his view? kathleen: all we have to do is listen to what loretta mester chose -- told us about when four hours ago on this very network, these very shows, that she still sees the fed has a ways to go to get restrictive. that has been the kind of commentary we have heard from most officials, and fed minutes totally back that up because they affirm that the inflation fight commitment -- they are all on board with that, but these comments about calibration that caught the markets' attention, and i think a lot of economist'' attention, too, because they are talking about highly uncertain global economic and financial environment, right? we know this is a big topic and maybe they have to calibrate. they are saying the pace of further policy tightening in order to mitigate the risk of significant adverse effects, but you get this sense that some are looking around and saying we have to keep going. we have to be restrictive, but we better be mindful of what is going on. the vice chair of the fed had a

kashkari says, why would i pause? and the dollar is up and taight eighth.we have by the magic of the queen of charts, do we have risk reversals? we could have a drum roll? let's see, let's see. maybe next. it's coming. dani: there you go. manus: there you go. this is the risk reversals. they're pairing their short bets on the point by the fastest pace since 2016. that says to me this goes back to what parikh said, it's hard to be short. the whole world was short. there was such a demonstrative short position. and that's with the virulence of the turn around in the skew in these movements come where the calls are favored by the most since 2016. dani: it is remark to believe see one u.k. yields yielding less than their u.s. counterparts and sterile being one of the best performing a currencies since the mini budge, you wouldn't expect that given the volatility. and manus as you say in equityland it's the desperation that we have hit bottom and can buy the dip. you see a third day of gains. thatst what they're setting us pup for. nasdaq features off the high t

. >> we're going to get kashkari in a little bit too.hen we come back, there's intel to talk about, reportedly planning to cut thousands of jobs we'll get to lvmh, comcast, boeing, meta, when we return >>> it does appear that intel will join the list of tech companies implementing layoffs the chip maker plans to cut thousands of jobs amid the slowdown in the pc market. the report says some of the divisions, including in sales and marketing, could see cuts of about 20% of staff >> i keep saying that the real weakness in this economy is going to prove to be silicon valley, where there's just tremendous excess. we have to remember that the numbers from gardner were calling for an absolute collapse i mean, just a falling off a cliff, pcs intel's trying to keep its market share in the datacenter, but they're levered to pcs, and there's -- pcs may be the single worst market in the world to be levered to it's one of the reasons why the semis have been so horrible. intel is right in the crosshairs and i think what's really embarrassing about thi

neel kashkari is president of the federal reserve bank of minneapolis. this show and he talked about the need to go slowly, and was worried about covid-19 eerie by midsummer, hopping on the hawkish bandwagon and now committee seems to be leading the charge about the fed possibly slowing down and made easing the pace of rate hikes. >> we now need to stay the course. we said we are doing this, we need to follow through and validate the expectations we set in the markets. until i see evidence that underlying inflation has solidly peaked and is headed back down, i am not ready to declare a pause. we are a ways away from the pause. kathleen: fed governor lisa cook spoke today, her first policy-oriented speech since she became a fed governor this spring. people thought you might be a dove because she had done academic research, had written about needing to look at the broad impact of your economic policy and how raising rates, tightening, fighting inflation could affect lower-income, even minority groups. in her speech today, she said to get inflation back to

haidi: minneapolis fed president neel kashkari there.ur next guest says he is positive on financials, expecting higher margins increasing to offset balance sheet worries. robert buckland is here with me here in sydney at the city australia and new zealand investment conference where it is day two. great to have you with us, especially during these really unusual times. let's start with your call on financials. as we get bank earnings this week we will know more but are you looking for signs of balance sheet distress? robert: i think there is a big trade-off and banks. interest rates are going up which makes it easier for banks to make money out of their day job. at the same time as interest rates go up people worry about the economy and what impact that could have on credit risk and so on. we think the good news on interest rate margins and profits will be enough to counter the fears about balance sheets and credit write-offs. haidi: there is a liquidity concern when it comes to treasuries. is that a sign of dysfunction to you yet? are t

we heard from neel kashkari just now. does not seem like they are quite ready for that. take a listen. >> the core services inflation, which is the stickiest of all, keeps climbing and we keep getting surprise on the upside that core keeps going up and services keeps going up. the problem for me with trying to say it is time to pause is we are not even sure that we've got rates high enough to push services and inflation down. yvonne: greg, great to see you again. 4.5%. what does that mean for you know, for your base case? brad: historically, the fed has never stopped it tightening cycle, and if we think of what the market is pricing for inflation, we still have inflation around five or sent in the middle of next year, so until the policy rate heads to that inflation rate, we might be in a period of continued hawkish and us. -- hawkish and us -- hawkishness . i think the world would not be able to cope with u.s. bonds toward 9% and even now, we see stresses in various markets have been given the pace of rise. yvonne: u.k., do you think we have seen some sort of reversal?

neel kashkari also very conscious of the balance of risks between the fed doing too little and doing too much, isn't he? >> neel kashkari made the point that he expect inflation to come off over the coming months and of course that might give the fed breathing space, saying next year, it will ease up on the rate hiking cycle. now, there was some nuance in his messaging like you are saying, making the point that right here and right now, he is not comfortable with where core inflation is at. we know the core inflation is at 6.6%, 40 year high in the u.s., especially because of an increase in food and energy prices paid mr. kashkari said two things pick he wants to see core come down before he feels any kind of degree of comfort and as you mentioned, he said he is willing to do more and then do less when it comes to jacking up interest rates to get inflation under control. there was a headline take away that he does see life on the horizon paid maybe next year when the fed can ease up, that is a next year story. for now, they have a lot of work to do. it does mean more aggressive hikes

neel kashkari also said "the big banks need to raise more capital. with market psychology and flashing signal signals, right e trade show. teddy, there's multiple narratives here on the sidelines but the fed has been clear and we're in for more rate tightening and are they working now? >> i think .s i think the sidelines are the place to be for going back for months and we've been talking about it. i mean, the fed has been quite clear in what they intend to do. the fact we don't want to listen or misinterpret what they're saying, we proceed at our own risk. i mean, the adage is don't fight the fed. dictating and telling us where interest rates are going and the market is reacting accordingly. it's a very, very difficult period. on the other hand, liz, there's other items out there. the fed clearly is the 800-pound gorilla in the room. but there's also what's going on with energy, there's the midterm elections and soon third quarter earnings and three other factors in the is short term that could have a big inflation in the market and depending on how

we will get kashkari at 1:00, and beijingge book at 2:00. be right back.le mom with $2000 and a passion for new orleans. i'm lauren haydel owner of fluerty girl. today, my tiny online shop has grown into eight stores. we're a must-stop shop for unique nola-inspired gifts. lauren doesn't just create cool nola merch; she creates opportunities. small businesses like lauren's open doors for neighborhoods to thrive. support your community. support small business. - yieldstreet presents: alternative investing with kal penn and older kal penn. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that about 10 more times. (laughs) - oh, it's no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - ooh. i think some of my gray hairs just reversed. - yeah. you're welcome. - [narrator] become an investor today. yieldstreet: private market investing. >>> haven't talked a lot about geopolitics this morning we've got martial law in the south of ukraine today

jonathan: kashkari twice. tom: we should give more formal speeches like in new york.n: but we spoke and we are listening to him and a week later we are talking about a pivot again. dan morris of bmp par -- bnp paribas now. june was aggressive and everyone's are talking about a pivot. is it a bear market rally this week, what is different between now and then? daniel: we have to keep in mind what might be a driver for a sustained rally, but at least for a few weeks right now. we appreciate on one hand the sentiment is very bad. no one likes equities and no one likes risk. but at the same time, because the sentiment is so low, you get a bit of good news and i think you can see some of the price action we already have. so going into the third quarter earnings season and we have private -- surprises, market is looking for good news, i think it will be up. tom: this goes back to dr. coronado years ago, this incredible parsing of gdp. what is the part of gdp in europe, the united kingdom and the u.s. that your focus on? dan: it is really going to be the price indices. these

we had kashkari on this morningn yesterday. all three of those seem -- well, bostic and kashkari seem onboard with bringing the rate up. there is talk about bostic of a pause, but not until they get to what they consider to be a particularly restrictive rate, melissa. >> steve, thanks >>> the market has been trading in a tight range ahead of tomorrow's crucial jobs report let's get to bob pisani with the new york stock exchange with more after such a big start to the month, stocks had every reason to sell off before the jobs report >> it hasn't, but it's a sort of indeterminant day. what you want to look for, melissa, is sign that the risk-on trades are continuing. what's risk-on it's very simple metal stocks had done very well at the start of the week transports were at new lows. some of them right now, there's the s&p 500 right now, down about 20 points. we were positive early on here, but look at some of the sectors here metals were up early on. they quickly, basically, flattened out. transportation stocks were at a new low

we are getting headlines from neel kashkari speaking at a forum on food prices saying inflation is too high. we will bring you those headlines as they come forward. for now, a turbulent week ahead as the bank of england bond by plan is set to end. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: the market bracing for a turbulent week when the bank of england this time next week exits the bond buying it is been doing not every day but some days to support the long end of the market. this week has been turbulent, next week could be turbulent. this is the last five days. the yield chart for the u.k. 30 year. we are off by nearly 60 basis points. that's the biggest move in yields that we have seen since 1998 in the u.k. in the long end of the u.k. bond market. you have to ask yourself can the bank of england withdraw the support it has been offering? you look at this chart and you wonder. let's get some perspective. a question i asked a moment ago, let's talk about it again. can the bank of england walk away from it support for the gilt market? >> i don't think they can. i think they are stuck. the central bank

right about some of those fast-moving metrics, steve, that's why it's curious, this headline from kashkarilation is peaking where do you think he gets that? >> carl, i think he partially gets it from the anecdotally stuff the fed collects, partially as the fed tends to be late on this stuff i think the markets often get ahead of the fed, which is a blessing and a risk from time to time i think if we get ahead of them thinking they're going to change prematurely, that's not necessarily a good thing in terms of discounting events, it is a fine thing so, where he gets it from is a little tricky to say, but sometimes i think it's more about messaging as anything else >> meghan, ifyou're betting there's going to be some sort of recession, and i realize there's a lot of details about when or what that could look like, how would you recession-proof your portfolio given the conversations on what we do know >> morgan, we've already had a drawdown in line with historically mild recessions and it's always hard to know, but by all accounts we do think if we have a recession, it's going to be on the mi

kashkari made it clear that the bar for the fed to pivot was much higher, but he talked about the speed and velocity of rates. if we did 2%, the market cannot cope with anything like that, the market cannot cope with anything bigger than 75 basis points, credit? oliver: 1% it probably could, we are so used to 75 basis point rate hikes that i think they would take it in stride. we would think the fed are getting closer to the terminal rate quicker, rather than having to take the pain of 75, 25 whatever it may be, let's get to the end. dani: i like it, so let me challenge it because that is what we are here to do. can we not use the u.k. as an example to say there are more opec pockets of leverage that exist outside the banking system. and the fed might face the same problem where the bond market runs away from it. oliver: that point will come probably in december or the turn of the year, i think 75 is a done deal for november. if you think back to jumbo sized rate hikes, there is a leg effect, so if they start spring-summer it will hit the real economy in q4. the numbers in the beginning

neel kashkari saying you could see rates above 4.5% if core inflation doesn't come down.urn to our top story this hour, u.k. consumer inflation coming in hotter than expected, september cpi heading 10.1%, ahead of an embattled prime minister appearing in parliament later. let's bring in our reporter for more, inflation back in double digits, more pain for consumers than? >> you can't put a positive spin on this. we should get used too inflation coming in higher-than-expected by now. if you look at the retail price index, that is now up 12.6%, the highest since march 1981, an really unpleasant number. wages are rising five or 6% a year at the moment, that is half inflation. we have just had the chancellor replaced with a new chancellor with austerity in the package. all the people expecting energy help in april would be gone. and it is huge of the bank of finland to keep raising interest rates. we will get a at least 1% point rise in november, that will keep pushing on mortgages, the bank is playing catch up with the market now. francine: john, this is a huge vertical for

kashkari has been the most hawkish member of the fed to date. that strikes me as a startling hint at the pivot is not that far off. that is my initial reaction is that that is quite a startling dovish sign. the most clearly dovish signal to date. paul: let us get over to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. >> an new emergency package to use the eu joint purchasing power as leverage in negotiations with local gas suppliers enabling joint purchases in cases of shortages. there are concerns over security of supply. >> as we make every effort to keep prices predictable and gas flowing to europe, we cannot exclude a supply crisis and the shortage of gas. i demand -- a demand reduction is key. >> xi jinping was seen on a beijing bridge and -- a pro-democracy group called the voice of this has created calls for the president's removal. north korea has hired artillery -- part artillery shells into the boundaries. officials say the north fired around 250 rounds late tuesday. on monday as lou correa began 12 days of annual military exercises which

i think it over emphasized the neel kashkari comments we got stuck he used to be a superdelegate nowe is more hawkish. do you believe him then or now? the tone coming out of the fed is more of the bullish end of the equation. maybe you can blame the u.k. a little bit. alix: i will blame you, no problem. guy: we can take our share of responsibility for this. i think the earnings season is the one that is confounding everyone. png, j&j are talking a dollar strength stop i think that's where the issues lie. netflix is where we center our attention today. alix: we were talking about this monday. we expected the downgrades to happen in the second quarter and then the third order but i think we have to wait to the fourth quarter until we see revisions to the downside. it's a little bit different and that leads us to the question -- guy: today's question is not really a question. it's an almost two friends. this is the one where earnings are good. is that where we are? is this earnings season not where earnings are about? let's kick it around a little bit. the bloomberg stockmarket reported

we are going to get kashkari and bostic speaking later today. it might be time for the markets to pay attention to what they are saying and not the tea leaves. juliette saly is standing by in asia because there has been another big rate decision. >> they did not come through with a smaller than expected hike. they came through with another jumbo 50 basis point hike that has sent kiwi assets rallying against the greenback just slightly holding onto those gains at the moment and big moves coming on in the bond market. there will be further tightening ahead. it comes to the broader equity picture, we are seeing another session of solid gains. hong kong missed out on the rally yesterday as it was closed for holiday. coming back very strongly. hang seng back above the 18,000 point level having its best day since march and we are seeing the best today rally for asian stocks as well. morgan stanley calling and into the bear market rally in emerging markets and in asia. dani: juliette saly in singapore. alex webb joins us in the studio to discuss the la

before you go, kashkari was saying the fed is not trying protect the dollar. mary daly was talking about this , too. they keep watching but do not seem scared. i am wondering when they get scared. >> with currencies, it is hard. the central bank does not have anything to do with the value of the dollar. the administration will decide whether it is gone too far one way or the other, but they have to live with the consequences. the consequences for the fed are good because we are exporting our inflation. it does make oil prices higher around the world, which contribute to the opec-plus situation, but at this point, the fed is not going to be too worried. it is helping the u.s. economy more than hurting it. alix: good roundtable to set us up. thank you. coming up, a conversation with kim forrest. her thoughts on the question of the day. how do you invest in companies like in delhi? this is bloomberg. >> markets are pricing in this goldilocks where some how we do not have a severe recession and inflation magically comes down. the reason markets are doing that is b

neel kashkari quite a ways away from a pause. he is a dove that became one of the hawks leading the pack. that's where they are. waller said today a soft landing is still possible, but the landing strip is shrinking. that's one reason they want to hit it hard now. they say they have to slow the economy down now to avoid having to slow it down even more later if they do not do enough. i think that is the thinking and will be by november 2 when they have the next meeting. rishaad: as you were talking about growth, i wanted to bring up the kpmg ceo survey which came out day before yesterday, which highlighted the 91% of ceo's they surveyed believe there will be recession. 57% think it will be take deep one. kathleen: when you raise rates like this this fast, look what happened in the mortgage market in the u.s. the 30-year fixed rate reached the highest in a long time. that is already hitting homeowners. right now, though, if you look at last month, payrolls are still doing ok at 250 5000. not as high as it was, but a solid report.

neel kashkari, minneapolis fed, not a voting member but an alternate.e repeated that the fed's job is focused on bringing down inflation, and the fed, this is a quote, aways a way from stopping raising rates. we should look at crude oil. oil is cooling down 2 plus percent. oil 7% over the past six months. it has dropped 16%. what is still boiling hot? services travel, leisure. cruise lines are real winners this hour. carnival, royal caribbean, up 11:00%. ubs is turning bullish on the sector. companies are strong, prices are able to keep the prices above, ready, 2019 levels. airlines up. united expanding international routes showing strength across the board. the fed does not want inflation to become more entrenched than it already is. what do we mean by entrend muched or sticky? pepsi shares are up nearly 4%, the ceo said not only 17% price hikes from last quarter, those stuck. people paid them but they have just raised them again and will keep raising them to tackle current high inflation. fed does got want consumers to get used to high prices. i think

a slew of speeches from officials including neel kashkari who has been vocal in recent days and raf bostic fed president john williams the monthly job report is key to the market right now let's get a check on futures higher by 69 points for the dow jones industrial average s&p is higher by 2 nasdaq is down 22 points now in pre-market our next guest saying growing c chatter of the fed pivot is too early. let's bring in greg branch from veritas financial. >> good morning. >> the s&p 500 this week, greg, gained 4.4%. what is behind the rebound of stocks is this a potential fed pivot? >> it is similar to july the market following the narrative it wants instead of the narrative the data is laying out. yes, there has been increasing talk of the fed pivot like we saw in the summer. of course, at some point they will between here and there, there is a lot of pain and a lot of work they will do they are all now on the same page you will hear from neel again today. inflation is the priority. they will see a necessary 4.5 funds rate which implies more hikes this year. the market is now starting to d

michael: i don't thick we will have to square a lot because the ppi is telling you what neel kashkari told you, that rates will continue to go up, somewhat dramatically, until they get to a restricted point where they think is somewhere around 5.5%. we are still 100 when he five basis points below that. i think what the minutes will do is maybe summarize their views on how long they think inflation might be sticky or whether they even know how long inflation might be sticky. but underline the fact they will be focused on getting it down by raising rates. kriti: speaking of raising rates, we have to talk about the make of england. i want to ask about the contagion effect we might see in the u.s. bond market. the federal reserve might be taking note of, is that something they should be taking worried about -- should be worried about? michael: not something they should be worried about. the problem for the u.k. is a credibility problem with the government, the fiscal agent, that the bond market does not think they can pay for what they are proposing in terms of economic relief for britis

we have the fed president raphael bostic and neel kashkari speaking today >>> a number of interviews of goldman sachs and adobe and bill gates joining nbc live from the summit be sure to catch my conversation with xpo logistics at 7:10 a.m >>> futures solidly in the green this morning the dow could open up 275 points higher at this point off session highs. s&p futures over the past three hours right now. you are looking at the movement. with back-to-back gains, the next guest is taking a page from the history books suggesting we may not be at the bottom yet in what has been a tough year for the market lee baker is the owner and president of apex financial. lee, thank you for being here. >> thanks for having me on >> lee, the day where we see the futures up big comes with pessimism. what do you see that makes you think we're headed toward lower lows >> so, i think we're still going to experience some of the swings and ups and downs of the roller coaster ride we have been on i do not think what we have seen in the past couple days is the beginning of the new bull market it is just not

you've got neel kashkari saying there will be losses, some failures around the global economy as we transition to a higher rate environment, that is the nature of capitalism here. so what do you think the markets should prepare for through the end of 2022, jim >> i think the biggest part is the labor market we've already seen the good side turnover we need to see the labor market slow and what i've seen so far this week with whether it is the jolts report or the jobless claims, we're starting to move in the right direction that is the key. that is what we're really looking at and if that starts to moderate, it does allow the fed to ease up here >> yeah, that jolts report where they said a million jobs >> a million fewer >> openings. they are just gone >> poof. let's get to a couple stocks that you like. beginning with cooper companies. not the tire company moving on to automatic data, payroll company, and american tower. why these? what do they have in common even though on the surface not much >> sure, there is a real theme here which is i want to see companies that can put up great earnings

figured out a way to minimize misinformation in my news feed, enter muted feeds, kashkari, bostick, mester i think they're making mistakes. yesterday, atlanta fed bostick gave a speech. here is the title, staying purposeful and resolute in the bat bell against inflation. he says the committee, fomc, they will not overreact but he admitted it would guarranty if they did react he guaranteed it would send us into deep recession. they know the stakes. what are your thoughts? they keep saying they will go hard and hard, not stop, knowing we could go into deep recession? >> hi, charles. this is classic cognitive dissonance on one hand, recognizing we're going into the most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades with the highest debt construct ever. it is by definition dangerous. in my view they actually should slow down, pause, reassess because as bostick himself said, they don't know what the lag effects are. yet we have all the fed governors go out there to talk about certainty, what they're going to do in 23, especially what they're not going to do, i.e., not cutting rates. they don't know. th

and i'm glad neel kashkari, actually, alluded to fact that this is why you have these high inflationcpi numbers like we've had, this does not bode well for the economy, and there's going to be more talk about this recession. we are going to monitor these live pictures. he's going to be touting the student relief plan. those are the expectations. if he says anything different, we'll let you know on "the claman countdown." strong market, very much right now. as you can see, we're higher by 745 points. high rates though, high mortgage rates hanks to the fed, hit -- thanks to the fed, hitting markets. applications really beginning to disappear. let's bring in huntington big share ceo, he's going to join me in just a couple of moments here to tell us what he's seeing on the loan front as the fed shows no signs of stopping, at least november's meeting anyway. >>> and back to our markets, 752 the on the dow. the laggards, amex, verizon. that's an earnings story for both of those companies, and the earnings to guidance not good when they released their numbers. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ if yo

charles: i think in the last 24 hours we got a little bit from evans and kashkari.'m with you on that. you posted i think today about a tactical rally. you said maybe looks likely. you cited downward earnings revisions f we get something like that, relief rally, bear market rally, santa claus rally, how long do you think it could go and how far could it go? >> i think as far as, how far it will go, right now we're looking between 38, 3900, at least for the first leg. we could actually get around to 4,000, 4100 on the s&p by end of this year. once we get into next year that will get a lot more difficult for markets because earnings have not come down enough to account for all these rate hikes. these rate hikes have a big lag effect of six to nine months. so a lot of rate hikes won't hit until next year. that slows the economy. that slows earnings. we get the rally, get a relief rally. make sure you sell into it. raise a little bit of cash. take risk off the table. we have to get through whatever happens in the first half of next year before we find a bottom here. cha

louis or others, cash kashkari in minneapolis, right >> i think the fed is having a very difficult exercise ahead of itself it has to communicate its ongoing intent to maintain a very tight monetary policy stance but it wants to distinguish the pace at which it's tightening from the level of rates. and that's a very delicate calibrating exercise if you bring us back to the minutes, the fmoc minutes, you saw in the minutes that there was a lot of conversation around this idea of risk balancing. mitigating the risk of overshooting on the rates front versus the risk of underdoing it in terms of bringing down inflation. i think the balance of risk is gradual ly balancing itself out, and the fed is increasingly intent on considering tapering the pace of rate hikes as it goes into 2023, in an environment where this global policy tightening cycle has brought about a significant slowdown in global activity. >> so this construct then that we're dealing with now is one where the markets and the economy have to try to find some kind of a balance point here, steve. i mean, this is a situation right now

host hawkish member is slight right now, and they all seem to be headed to the 4.5% range >> and kashkari did not respond to my follow-up. he responded to the initial one, but not to the follow-up >> oh, not the follow-up okay, he did cool >> so there's still unfinished business between the two of us >> scott, i want to make sure we get a chance to talk european markets. but go ahead >> comparing the environment from now to 2018, i got the pause. >> yeah, i think that's an interesting comparison he made if we get off with a 2018 event where the fed ends up tweaking in response to that, i think it would be cheap and if we get off with a mild recession i think that's cheap as well with the magnitude they have to accomplish i think that's worth thinking about. you hope the fed is watching the right stuff and the trouble with the things that happen with the liquidity issues happens because are where you were looking by definition >> i will throw something into the mix which i just have been alerted to by the news desk, and cnbc europe did an interview with jamie dimon today, or they may have

. >> there are serves inflation which neel kashkari is certained about and a lot of that is not great. it is just not. >> not a lot is great right now. i think the question is what have we already sorted out and put into the market. >> good stuff. mike santoli, we'll see you tomorrow "fast money" is now. >>> right now on "fast," the bank of england he telling pension funds they have threes day to get their you know what is order and they will end on friday that headline flipping markets upside down. we'll break down where the pension problems are ripping you through our shores plus gig shop. by a proposal by the biden administration to change status for workers. we'll look why going from contractor to employee is such a big deal and later chips get whacked again. down another 3% and more misery in meta. and a stock dropping almost 7% this week. i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money" live at the nasdaq market site a full house tonight tim seymour, karen finerman and dan nathan here on set and we start off with a big shock courtesy of the blank of england. the s&p giving up a gain of a f

charles: and it did feel like comments from kashkari this week, evans this week, started to lean in thate tunnel, but on that note, so financial conditions have gotten tighter and yet the expectations for fed fund rates have gone higher also. that's kind of been baffling too been achieving what they want and yet we keep hearing they are getting tougher what's that all about? >> it's tough because when the fed hikes interest rates, there's usually something like an eight-to-12 month lag before it impacts the broader economy and then there's another six-to- eight months until it impacts inflation, but they hike rates today and then the cpi report comes in tomorrow and it comes in hotter-than-expected and they build in more rate hikes when today's rate hikes can't possibly impact the cpi. charles: there's also a time when the cpi numbers come in a lot less than expected. >> they will exactly. charles: but then it's too late because all the stuff they put into the system is in the system >> its still got to come through even if they pause and cut rates all that tightening comes like a tsunam

we have the atlanta fed president today and neel kashkari.now about frontloading braided -- frontloading. how much does that change the equation for people who are saying perhaps the fed needs to wait a bit now. take it slow and understand how much they are impacting the economy. there is a 12 to 18 month lag time people talk about we haven't gotten to. jonathan: long and variable policy. >> that's codified in all the textbooks and the answer is coming off a pandemic it's a little bit different. you see the equities in particular what we are seeing. jonathan: the head of macro strategy, in your words the board of worry is so big we can klein. can you explain that for me. >> no matter where we look, whether it's china around earning spheres. there's so much fear out there and it's been priced in. we get this bounce that started yesterday. what i really like is yesterday afternoon stocks held on even his bonds gains gave up. we are doing well. i think that's the important change we see these past couple of days and i think that leads to a furth

the latest catalyst though on this side of the globe seems to be some comments coming out of neil kashkarion-voting member at least this year of the federal reserve open market committee, he will be a voting member next year bemoaning the fact that right now, he's seeing really no slowing in consumer demand. some pockets of that, but it's interpreted to mean that the labor market remained very very strong in his eyes, and people would pounce on that to say that's a clear sign as any that the federal reserve will continue its tightening moves, the betting seems to be on a three-quarter percent hike in fed funds rate next month and maybe another such hike in december. too soon to say but we're following it. in the meantime, following how all of this is sorting out, in key races ink across country, as interest rates continue backing up, 10 year note now all the way up to around 4.12%, dan springer following the fall out right now in oregon. dan? reporter: yeah, who would have t hunk it, neil. when was the last time we said people around the country were following the oregon governors race but

neel kashkari, the ultimate of who has now become a very ardent hawk, he was talking today about a very high bar set for pivoting to a less aggressive said policy path. let's listen to part of what he said. >> for me, the bar for such a change is very high because we have not yet seen much evidence that the underlying inflation, services inflation, wage inflation, the labor market, that that is it softening. i think we are quite a ways away from anything like that. kathleen: many fed officials including loretta mester who spoke with us just yesterday was making that same kind of point. we have to see inflation coming down. michelle bowman speaking in new york, she said sizable hikes should be on the table unless inflation falls. sustainably, that kind of a fall, not just a pullback. who knows what we are going to see thursday. but this is the key. i think they are looking to doing this eventually at some point, but for now the data has to show that is the right thing to do. haidi: that commitment to the cause continues. kathleen hays joining us from washington. it seems like everyone is

everything you're saying, jim, kashkari acknowledging the pain in housing, does that give credence toundlach's tweet >> i thought that was -- he made a lot of cogent points it's just that we can't get food down i've been getting in touch with -- i usually don't talk to my manager, but there is this kind of growing belief that if somehow russia and ukraine could come to a detente, which means play for a tie, then we would begin and china would be able to reverse engineer an mrna or pfizer, then your going to come down on the wrong side of growth i come back and i say, it's already deteriorating so quickly in europe, and if it weren't for our lng being shipped there, they would collapse in the winter china shows no signs of doing anything positive. and those are slowing the economy, and our country is really being impacted by the rates. so, the fed's winning. it's painful when they're winning, but they're winning >> yeah. you kind of sound like dow chemical >> i'm repeating what jimmy said >> eu challenged, china challenged, six-quarter low. >> and housing is bad. but fettering is still

jonathan: neel kashkari, the minneapolis fed president. checking on the price action, negative.are unchanged in the german bond market stop they are higher in italy by four basis points. talking about the spread between germany and italy stop we are trading higher. you have to go back to 2013 to see the italian yield in a spread this wide. lisa: this comes on the heels of a number of escutcheon's from officials. one official said he sees two consecutive meetings of significant rate moves. jonathan: remember the euro crisis at the peak of that. we had the whatever it takes speech in 2012. lisa: how much do you look at these comparisons as valid continue -- based on how much debt has been issued. it's the idea it's different to have a 7% yields today than in 2010. lisa: i wonder whether these are unique issues in europe. kailey: particularly around the jonathan: maturity profile. jonathan: when does this kick in? lisa: maybe central banks can afford to go higher. jonathan: when you are focused on your with the low growth of years to come, you wonder how viable those models are wit

one of the most note worthy statements was when neel kashkari came out as the uber hawk after being theade i think what we have to hope is this is the beginning of the telegraphing that maybe we have gone too fast and too far and too fast or too late, really they really you guys talking about front end loading it they have end loading it they have let it go for over a year saying it is time to raise rates and it was on deaf ears. i think, unfortunately, they caused volatility in the market. they are running the risk of m making it worse. you are hearing the drum beat of people coming out and the fed saying we can take it easy for a while. i thought jeremy siegel was great in his rants the last couple weeks >> you are still in love with names that you think could be bought in this environment what are they? there are three. >> you still want to own technology the solution to getting out of the tight labor market is spend on tech cap x. cio increasing on spend on software cloud infrastructure is important and cybersecurity. you get that with microsoft. $15 billion cybersecurity business a