want to react to what kashkari is saying? to your point, i'd love to hear from you whether they're done or not going up. >> we had a little rally based on the israeli war. back to 370 today and now back to 375. i would agree, soft landing, mild recession, the consumer is in better shape. now $1.5 trillion available. >> you misspoke, 465. >> sorry about that. wishful thinking. >> maybe that's a tell on where you think they're going. have they peaked out? >> rates have gotten higher for the reasons steve told us, excess issuance, the economy is still growing strong and a rate increase. we'll watch that closely. value has been restored to fixed income. >> still offering to some better value than equities. what especially do you like within credit right now? >> the banks in investment grade, ubs ten year, you're getting almost 7%. right now high yield we did hertz yielding over 17%. we like allied systems. we like medical, 9% to 10% type yields. value has been restored to fixed income. you have to be investing. >> so you must not

this is the lineup we have including bowman, bostic, kashkari.nd we have the september meeting minutes also released. let's get to the market action. eli lee from the bank of singapore. let's start off with what is happening in the middle east. we have seen a lot of tumult on the markets. they don't usually last long but this could be different so how do you guard against that? eli: right. if we look at history, it is very hard to trade-off -- [indiscernible] . i think going into this being positive on gold we have a position on gold and we are positive on u.s. treasuries as well. we have exposure to the long end. if tensions escalate, these asset classes will guard against some of the market volatility we will see but we advise against investors trying to time the events too much. rishaad: you look at that and then you have the federal reserve which is at the epicenter of what happens next. there is a lot of signaling that they may be done for this year, that coming from three we mentioned earlier. the point being -- there is no mention of there

you'll kashkari really flagged -- kashkari flank that the other day, saying we need to look at what thenflation print we are seeing soon. paul: let's talk about that. it is expected to show inflation continuing to come down but after that surprise we saw with ppi, is there a risk it might come in a little bit harder than expected? jill: possibly. there's some loose correlations there, but not incredibly huge ones. that ppi print was certainly a surprise. it was an indexed talking about airfare costs that might actually correlate to some upside surprises for cpi but ultimately, what you will see in cpi is economists are tracking this cooling in the headline gauge and it's really again just core that you have to look out for, that core inflation gauge, to see how that is moderating a bit. energy costs are not going to be as dramatic a factor in september as they were in august but there's obviously a lot of uncertainties with the israel -hamas conflict that has some potential down the line to create some upside surprises for inflation so we will see what this gauge tells us how the fed re

of officials speaking today including john williams and michelle bowman and tom barkin and neel kashkari speaking today. earnings and ecom and fed speakers are a mix for investors today as we gear up for the trading day. futures are off the lows of early today. the dow would open up about 60 points lower. for more on this, let's bring in tom lee at fund strat global advisers. >> good morning, frank. >> are those all potential market movers? >> absolutely. markets are dealing with uncertainty right now because we're in the middle of earnings which is better than expected. we have a geopolitical situation which is uncertain and interest rates have been creeping up again. i think markets remain on edge and i think investors are not committed. i think the bias is to the upside with the position of investors in the last ten weeks. >> tom, you are one of the biggest bulls on the street. you are bullish on the market's direction. with that bullishness in mind, what is your wex word of the day? >> the wex word of the day is uncertainty. >> why? >> it is -- i think investors generally like a narr

investors digesting fed speak from daly and kashkari. >>> plus, exxonmobil agrees to buy pioneer.t's about a $60 billion all stock deal. we will, of course, give you the latest. >>> it's another big test for the ipo market this morning. shoe brand birkenstock making its public debut -- that's how they pronounce it -- right here at the nyse. ceo is going to join us here at post nine in the next hour. >>> let's start with that massive deal in the energy sector. exxonmobil agrees to buy pioneer. the price tag, $253 a share. it's all exxon stock, so in this case, when exxon moves down, the overall value of the deal is impacted. therefore, it is no longer $253 but not that far off from that price. they are talking about significant synergies, as much as $2 billion total annual average value over the next decade. 2.3234 exxonmobil shares, it's an 18% premium. little background that i got, jim, and obviously want to get your take. you know this company, pioneer, so well. my understanding is having spoken to people familiar with the old situation, as we like to say, they've been talking o

one i like is neel kashkari.oke last week in minneapolis, talking about his change in feelings, just the last three months. he feels like the fed is probably finished, number one. he is still concerned a little about jobs but most importantly this recent hike in yields we've seen is actually good for the fed, almost doing the fed's work. i think we're in a critical point for investors. a lot of advisors feel rates will be lower a year from now and there's a money on the sidelines, $7 trillion in money market funds and you're getting paid healthy for that but you've got to put it to work now because that's not going to be available a year from now. it's important p you go longer duration. we're seeing record levels of money going into long r duration etfs, credit quality etfs where you can lock in higher rates. if we start to get cuts as we go into later '24, those rates could be cut in half. they don't cut the organized rate that they hike interest rates. they'll come in with a machete and cut things critically.

among them minneapolis fed president neel kashkari says it's possible.may not need to raise rates, at least not as much. we heard that from raphael bostic and san francisco's mary daly as well. >>> however, speaking in the last hour, fed governor michelle bowman says despite some progress on inflation, the bank may need to tighten policy further. right now there are increasing odds the fed does not hike rates again this year. there's an 84% chance of no hike in november and a 71% chance of no hike in december. let's talk with vance howard. great to have you here. let's take a look at the situation. we're on pace for a winning week, the three major indices in the green. bond yields fell and there are expectations of the fed pausing or at least not raising rates again in the next two meetings. in this current environment and also with the geopolitical uncertainty, how are you advising them to position? what are you telling them to do? >> we're still bullish. the trend about's still up. i think you have to trade the trend. you need these pullbacks or buying

tomorrow bostic, waller, kashkari, they have the opportunity to speak. as the week progresses you'll hear from more and more in the federal reserve. last week we got indication that he potentially maybe the federal reserve was beginning to pivot in their thought process. if we get further indications that the federal reserve is pivoting, i think that's a nice setup for risk assets, and i wouldn't dismiss that possibility this week. >> it seems to be because the move in rates has sparked you call it a pivot. people like mary daly, san francisco fed president last week, said the move in rates is equivalent to a hike. if financial conditions remain tight now, credit conditions remain tightened, we're probably high enough. lori l lori logan. it seems the fed speaker is falling in line with we don't want to crush what we have here, if we can pull this off and the bond market has done a lot of our work for us. >> i think that's right. everyone i know on the investment side is thinking the same thing. we're probably done hiking, plateau at this level for longer

some of that might be due to the recent fed speakers and speaking of neel kashkari delivering remarkse breaking headlines when they hit around 3:30. your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. all s&p sector

kriti: and on top of that you cannot make the accusation that new kashkari has any reason to not stand out. he is always the halt in the room, the guy who is almost contrarian. what is his take this time around? >> i think what he is saying is, he's being contrarian, saying we need to push things up. we can't just decide yet, and i think a large part of that comes from the fact that there are still a few weeks to go before the next fomc meeting and there are key indicators on the calendar that we need to pay attention to. or going to see cpi cool off a little more and will the trajectory be maintained? recent jobs data showed more resilience and we initially expected. there are lingering concerns about whether the economy is cooling off in the way you don't want to think. the yield spike has thrown things into a bit of confusion but he's not really saying anything extremely dissimilar to what we were hearing fed officials say a few months ago, let the data tell the story and let that play out and we will make a gametime decision about what we need to do in november. kriti: a lot to dig

charles: is the only way they can assess this, as much as we hear soft landing and neel kashkari mentioned the only way the fed knows how to assess when to stop when there is a lot of rubble on the ground? >> unfortunately. >> jay powell used the word pain over and over again. i think we're seeing pain come out, charles. i think if it is a soft landing it will be mighty bumpy. that is what corporate america is telling us. nothing is really broken. bankruptcies running for large companies at fastest pace since 2010. there is still no contagion yet. >> they're not forward-looking, right? self-admittedly, we gave up forecasting. we'll sit here and wait and watch. they will need to see inflation falling and -- >> waiting on data already dated. >> yeah. charles: and then own taupe of that the lag effect may come in. fomc minutes, there was a time we started to the show with that. >> 100%. charles: feels like between the last meeting and now things changed so much, why go back to the minutes. >> one of the things we should pay attention to in the minutes though as we're sitting here talking abou

golly every single day, williams, bowman, kashkari, wahler, williams, this is nuts.nly thing i will say last week it felt like they were getting more dovish. maybe this time we want them to speak. >> yeah, charles, great to be here with you, as you noted the fed speak was decidedly less hawkish last week. we saw a lot of that sort of reverse some of the tightening that we had seen from what had gone on post-the september meeting from the federal reserve committee. if you recall -- charles: why do you think they got more dovish? the ant to jawbone the market has been probably one of the most effective arrows in their quiver. why are they pulling that back? are they kind of confident? >> i think you saw if you really look at the 10-year treasury if you go back into mid-september when that meeting took place, the 10-year treasury was at 4.3%. charles: right. >> and just in a few weeks that we saw that unrelenting push higher in yields all the way up to 4.9. charles: right. >> i think the committee started to recognize that conditions had been tightening and just over th

i think it was neel kashkari of the minneapolis fed yesterday saying he was perplexed by the move in yields. have you been equally perplexed? ben: i guess these day-to-day moves are quite astounding and sometimes difficult to square as one narrative unfolds based on the following days move. i think we except bond yields moved higher at the longer end relative to the shorter end because maybe there is some supply demand dynamics there, deficits in the face of inverted yield curve, not much value in the long and but likewise i think it is basically the u.s. economy can probably deal with high rates. not adverse to the move in general for higher yields but when we go from here? we think wants to could be of volatile period, with inflationary trends continuing and abating at the margin, bond yields hover around this lever -- level, move a little lower, possibly, and that is good for equities. jonathan: thank you. let somebody market jargon but essentially what was taking place was the long and was selling off, yields were going higher and i we see a bigger move in the long and what yield

we'll get waller, kashkari. ten-year topped out at 4.88 in the last two weeks.rning back to 4.7. take a look at the bond curve in a bit. we're back in a moment. >>> a few moments ago, caroline ellison, former ceo of alameda research and former girlfriend of sam bankman-fried arriving in court. we expect to hear her testimony later on today. we'll get you up to speed on the recent developments in the case as soon as we can. >>> in the meantime stocks opening with some modest gains. back to 4346 on the s&p. the dow up almost 50 points ahead of a very busy session as q3 eniarngs heat up an the fed speak continues. don't go away. is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. (

mester, kashkari, bostic, daley, barkin and barr. you can see the ten-year holding. are red with the exception of health care barely positive. we'll be right back. with your hearing, if you start having a little trouble, you're concerned that it's going to cost you money. to this day i only paid what i had to pay for the device... when i go back everything is covered. there's so much you're missing by not having hearing aids. (♪♪) we'll find you a hearing aid that fits your lifestyle and budget. unlock your risk-free trial during our limited-time sounds of autumn event. call 1-800-miracle to book your appointment today. my citi custom cash® card automatically adjusts to earn me more cash back in my top eligible category... suddenly life's feeling a little more automatic. like doors opening wherever i go... [sound of airplane overhead] even the ground is moving for me! y'all seeing this? wild! and i don't even have to activate anything. oooooohhh... automatic sashimi! earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blo

kashkari, barkin, barr. looking ahead to bank earnings in two fridays.mic club of new york with lisa abramowicz. bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. tom: it would be an important conversation. to review this, these troubled banks was on the daily watch. lisa: the oversight to the svb situation. we are at a moment where it goes beyond the banks. it goes to the question of at what point is rate, at these levels, unsustainable for an economy built under a low rate regime. i think that is what everyone is grappling with including fed officials. tom: annmarie hordern and joe mathieu with their important conversation last night of the congressman from florida matt gaetz. you are at the capital. kent matt gaetz get a drink at the capital grille? what is the reaction of washington to what he has wrought? annmarie: if you want to know, where matt gaetz hangs out is the old trump hotel. it is no longer owned by the chung family business -- trump family business but this individual is not a like amounts's conference at the moment and your hearing voices say they woul

lisa: we will get a slew of fed speak including raphael bostic, chris waller, neel kashkari and maryt is doing the work for them even if the bond market response and goes the other direction. 1015 a.m. we will hear from janet yellen who will be in morocco at the annual imf meeting. speaking about what she sees about going forward in terms of lending and how does she coalesce allies in the feeling around the imf and world bank at a time of splintered alliances. at 1:00 we will hear from president biden. jonathan: the war between israel and hamas in the fourth date with at least 1500 dead. the israeli ministry responding with strikes overnight. hamas thrilling -- hamas threatening to kill hostages if innocent people are killed without warning. joining us is ethan bronner from tel aviv. good to catch up with you once again. let's walk through where we are now and the response we have seen so far and the steps you expect in the not-too-distant future. ethan: the israel this have gathered hundreds of thousands of troops on the edge of the border of gaza for an expected ground result. they

. >>> atlanta fed president bostic and christopher waller and neel kashkari will speak out today along with san francisco mary daly speaking out with the forum as well as prime day kicking off which is set to run through tomorrow. look for a good deal. >>> when we come back an, we will talk more about treasury yields dropping. it is just happening as the bond market reopens after the holiday yesterday. we will dig into the inflation data and earnings. that is next. you can see the ten-year yielding 4.6%. >>> coming up at 8:00 a.m., we will speak with paul ryan about the ouster of kevin mccarthy from the speakership. you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin. this is spring semester at fairfield-suisun unified. they switched to google tools for education be