economist bruce kasman says that sets the stage for a stronger economy at year-end. >> i think what it suggests is that what we lost in this revision in the third quarter, we'll probably get back either this quarter or next in terms of somewhat more strength in the inventory component. >> reporter: j.p. morgan is expecting the economy to grow at an annual pace of 3% in the fourth quarter. but that will probably be as a good as it gets for a while, due to some serious economic headwinds. >> we're not building in an extension of the payroll tax or unemployment benefits. and as a result of that and the european recession, we think growth is going to slow pretty sharply as we go through the first half of next year. >> reporter: to be sure, kasman does not expect the u.s. to slide into a recession in 2012. but other experts are still worried. that's despite stronger readings lately on retail sales and housing. s&p strategist sam stovall says points to past history. >> i do have a bit of a concern, however, and that is every time since world war ii that we've had two consecutive quarters of