would bring in kathleen hayes and adam.day after the rescue of first republic bank, so why the renewed worry? >> indeed, and just a day after those comments from jamie diamond after his bank acquired first republic, putting a bit of a dampener around the caution, the sense that he was a long negotiation which took place between the fbi and the -- j.p. morgan first republic, and radio was struck. and indeed, monday seemed to show in the stock prices that there was a sense of calm. but that gave away quite quickly on tuesday, and during the session we had volatility as well. really, it was not about pinning down in the particular news piece of information. what it was really down to was this overriding sense of that lack of confidence and that is still there. the lack of confidence that the fdic are moving on uninsured deposit positions and which a lot of people have been looking for. just the fact that a lot of the systemic issues that have impacted regional banking in the u.s. over the last two or three months and indeed wh

kathleen hayes is here. what separates the fed president trump everyone else? >> jim bowden is a hawk. he was the first advocate raising rates. certainly the first to say we have to be aggressive. hit ablation and hit it hard. there has to be more of that downward push. >> you want to get the downward pressure on ablation while you can. >> he did not comment on this hold in the june meeting, skipped the rate hike. neil says it is a very close call on the june hike. he also wants to be emphatic, if we skipped a rate hike, it does not mean the end of rate hikes. she thinks tighter credit conditions are maybe one or two rate hikes. i want to be mindful of that. all the way up to 200 basis points. there is a pretty broad range. >> no one knows for sure at all what the credit tightening is going to mean. there is no equation for that. she also said the predicting fed policy made it a distraction. you have to watch the numbers. there is plenty of time to collected data before they get to the june meeting. raphael said he is comfortable with fed pause. if they have to

yvonne: mark now from our economics and policy editor, kathleen hayes and mark cranfield. >> there was a lot to balance here, whether it was recession risks or pushing against that. what is the biggest take away for you? kathleen: what we got from jay powell is yes, of course, rates will not go up forever. the fed is closer to saying we are not just pausing but stopping rates altogether. all you guys who want rate cuts this year are better be betting on a week economy. what he seems to be saying is, they took language out of their policy statement that has been in their four months coming saying it would be appropriate to do more appropriate. the door is open for a pause. the labor market is tight, we will have to seek more improvement then we have seen now. they have done so many rate hikes, it is part of the reason we are having these inking problems. -- banking problems. maybe pausing, not as though we are done, but that we are data-dependent. in regards to the banking crisis, versus the economy, dennis lockhart is former president of the federal reserve in atlanta, here is what he

kathleen hayes has the latest. it is a close call, especially given how big the budget was? >> the budget makes a formidable difference in terms of the expectations for what is going to happen at the reserve bank of new zealand. they have been on a rate hiking path, 12 meetings in a row, that is quite a track record. inflation is still well above, not only its target of 2-3%, but well above the official cash rate. 18 of 21 economists surveyed see a 25 basis rate went hike. the budget, much more expansionary than expected. it has a lot to do with the rebuild in new zealand after cyclone gabriel hitting the north island of new zealand so hard, all kinds of reconstructions needing to be done that will carry out over the year. that will be a lot of spending. people were worried about the rate hikes, things might slow down, go into a recession. a big migration wave. an inflow of 100,000 is expected over all, adding 2% to the population. when you have a lot of new workers in your country they buy a lot of stuff, they pay a lot of rent, they buy houses. you are supposed to keep the

our global economics and policy editor kathleen hayes is here with more. with the banking sector stresses it is no surprise that people are asking when are you going to cut. chair powell seemed to take that off the table. >> cutting rates might not help the banks. damage has been done. they had bad decisions on their books. the question is more broadly if we see this turning into something more systemic which people don't expect, it's a painful and difficult process, one of the big risks is that it is going to lead to less lending because if you are worried about deposits or the state of your assets versus liabilities, the first thing you are going to do is pull back and powell mentioned tighter credit conditions, tighter lending conditions. there watching and he said it accounts for some of the rate hike but we don't know how much. we have to see how this unfolds. they did what they were expected to do, people set look if they don't hike, then they will think they're panicking but they have to do it, and they certainly went ahead and did it. they also too

. >> i'm kathleen hayes.resident biden and house speaker kevin mccarthy confident their tentative debt ceiling bill will pass congress averting a historic u.s. default. >> global markets primed for relief rally on a tentative deal after the debt crisis battered risk sentiment in recent weeks. >> turkish prez on seals a reelection victory raising the prospect of more friction with western government and more uncertainty with investors. for more on the debt limit let's go to debt -- joe matthews in washington. joe, this is a deal that a lot of people did not think could be done. what is in place now? what are the key points they have to come together on? >> the most important thing we can tell you is this extends the debt limit until 2025. that's the most important part in terms of avoiding default. it gets the picture out of the way, the issue of the debt ceiling until after the presidential election. that was something joe biden was not likely to move on. it auto -- also flattens spending for fiscal year 2024

kathleen hayes is a with us. they are done. guest: that is what they seem to be signaling. this is going to be an interesting discussion in the markets. i agree with you that they are among the g10 central banks, deftly one of the first to say that they are pausing, and pretty soon they expect to cut rates. they are confident that the redline that shows inflation is at 6.7% in the first quarter of the year, still above the official cash rate. even with the 25 basis point hike, it remains above that level. we will get more information about what they see allowing inflation to fall, driving inflation down. they have done 500 basis points of rate hikes since the end of 2021. presumably that is part of what they are thinking. yes we have an expansionary budget and a surge in migration. inflation has peaked, even with this added to stimulus, so many rate hikes have begun to take hold and will take hold. it seems like a confident position to have taken. yvonne: it sounds like it, if they are already projecting cuts in 2024. do you think -- is it likely that new zealand can avoid

our global economics and policy editor kathleen hayes is here. what are we expecting?al bank has said that is what he is going to vote for. inflation has come down for three months in a row, from 8.7% in january, 26.6% in april. it is moving in the right direction. what he said earlier this week, if for sure this is a permanent trend, clearly we must pause. we have been surprised many times before. along with inflation falling, we have seen the key rate for the philippines going up as much as 50 basis points in march. a lot of progress. we don't only have the governor himself saying he is ready to vote for a pause, the previous governor, the finance minister of the philippines, has said he is ready to vote for it. he says he can't speak for the entire word. -- board. the fed has caught up with everybody and surpassed them. particular as the federal reserve signals, it might pause or cut rates further. haidi: the spotlight is on two things, jobs numbers out of australia, and how many jobs need to be added to soak up the surge in international borders and labor supply re

. >> bloomberg's economics policy editor, kathleen hayes, with our story today.v to get more analysis from editors as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ did you know you can get someone to shop for you? stitch fix really gets me and what i need. even better? they save me a trip to the mall. it's easy: i share my style, size and budget. and they do the shopping for me. stitch fix sends me things that fit and make me feel like a more stylish version of myself. i keep what works, and send back the rest. no subscription required. no commitment. just my style. stitch fix. was also the first time your profits left you speechless. at the counter or on the go, save 20% with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. start saving today at godaddy.com >> here's a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. alibaba's cloud division has begun a round of job cuts that could reduce its staff by about 7%. we are told that is offering severance to employees or transfers to other parts of alibaba but those are not guaranteed. the moves are intended to streaml

paul: devin hayes there. -- kathleen hays. the bipartisan debt limit deal has cleared a major hurdle in the house. president biden was optimistic ahead of the voting. we going to do with the debt ceiling. things are going as planned. i will be landing in colorado tonight in preparation for my commencement speech tomorrow. thank you very much. shery: the next guest says to prevent economic catastrophe. thank you so much for your time today. this deal would restart federal student loan payments for some food assistance programs. what do you like about it? >> i like republicans were ready to head the economy to the side of the cliff and in exchange, they wanted to slash our budget with draconian cuts. they had serious rollbacks of budget for seniors, health care, children. we were able to avoid those cuts. we were able to make sure we have a continued health care funding for toxic exposed veterans. expand -- it's not the bill democrats would have written, but thankfully joe biden is an experienced negotiator and we will able to g