>> from new york city, i'm craig greifeld -- katie greifeld in four jonathan ferro. real yield starts right now. katie: coming up, cooler than expected u.s. inflation, investors rushing back to junk bonds on a potential fed pit. we begin with a seven handle on cpi. >> inflation starts to come down. >> there is some evidence we are moving from peak inflation. katie -- >> they were starved for information on the inflation front and we got it. >> i don't think the fed will have to do 75. >> this is about being on mile 20, you still have 10 katie:. >> i don't think the fed will stop because of this number. >> i think we will see yields coming lower. >> there are a lot of crosscurrents that people are not addressing. >> things are not as scary as they were but far from good. katie: joining us is -- as the cpi print a changer for the fed? lindsay: it is important. it is in the right direction. inflation is not slamming on the brakes, it is tapping. you have to look forward to the next numbers. katie: has your fed call changed in the wake of thursday? winnie: and is not cha

>> from new york city, i am katie greifeld. bloomberg real yield starts right now. ♪ coming up, hot labor market, at least in october. trying to find the fed's terminal rate as we count down to the next inflation report. we begin with the big issue, another upside surprise. >> this is a pretty strong employment report. this continued really strong labor market data is a little bit of old news. >> it validates what we think we know about this labor market. >> there is clear divergence going on. >> looking at the announcements. >> you see a weakening demand for the ism surveys. >> we will see these layoffs show up. >> you will have a landing. >> we are not seeing cracks in the labor market yet. >> the jobs figure is not something the fed wanted to see. >> the fed will have to continue on its path. >> we can see more rate hikes priced in from even what is already there. katie: joining us discuss is matt hornbach, maureen o'connor and ashok bhatia. great to have you with us. matt, relative to what we heard on wednesday from jerome

katie: from new york city i am katie greifeld. "bloomberg real yield" starts now. coming up an absolute parade offense become a data showing a still strong u.s. consumer and treasury yields all over the place. we begin with the big issue, timing the growth shock. >> we will see the growth slowdown -- >> it's the sequencing of hitting the fed dual mandate. >> it is timing that, trading that that will be hard. >> you won't see the full effect of the tightening, probably until possibly even the midpoint of next year. >> q2 to q4 maybe as late as q1 of 2024. >> there are likes the fed policy. >> like between monetary policy tightening and the effects of the real economy, that will be a bigger problem. >> the investment windows are short. >> it will be difficult for marcus to digest. >> joining us now, morgan stanley, etsy, and greg staples of dws. let's start there and talk about the very fine needle the fed is trying to thread. you have inflation trying to bring that down, all while trying to not destroy growth. how possible is that at this point? >> it's going to be

on that next, this is real yield on bloomberg. ♪ katie: i'm katie greifeld, this is "bloomberg real yieldt is time for the final spread, the week ahead. coming up, u.s. markets closed for the thanksgiving holiday but we get a host of global central-bank decisions on thursday. u.s. markets are closing early on black friday, but we get ecb president lagarde and boe governor speaking on monday. we will hear from fred chair jeb -- fed chair jay powell followed by u.s. economic data on wednesday including gdp. it is time for the rapidfire around. three questions, three quick answers. cameron, i want to start with you because junk spreads right now are at 440 basis points currently. do we see 400 or 601st? cameron: we see 401st and then we go to 600 2023. francis: 600. peter: i will go with 401st. joe: does the fed cut rates in 2023? cameron: very backend. katie: peter? francis: possibly -- peter: possibly backend. francis: no. katie: does quantitative tightening last through the end of 2023? cameron: yes. katie: peter? peter: yes. francis: yes. katie: great job. my thanks to erica williams, ca

i'm joined by katie greifeld. what has been on the ripple effect? s etf on the screen. katie: it's a trust that would love to be in etf. alix: fairpoint. katie: i want to talk about what we are seeing in terms of product launches. the etf world, issuers, they love shiny objects. crypto funds have been the shiny object. we are not talking about spot bitcoin etf's. those that exist. if you look worldwide, they do. you have seen a ton of launches, well over 100. now you see those debuts really dwindle. they don't really -- have not been happening in the past couple of months. what i'm watching out for is liquidations. you have seen a handful thus far again in the past month or two. not this pickup that analysts are telling me is probably next. guy: let's go back to what is behind me, the grayscale trust. a trust, not a etf. significant discount underlying. it's been fairly substantial for a while. does it get bigger? katie: that's the question i've been asking. i had this conversation earlier this week. you are looking at a 43% discount, a record for th

katie greifeld, tracking those moves for us. n the last half hour we have seen life come back into the big benchmark. we are looking at the s&p up by .5%. since features open last night we have been really back-and-forth, as live voting does begin. we are moving higher right now and a lot of that -- a lot of that action is coming from the tech sector. in the chips you had gfs give a pretty bullish forecast. as well from nvidia, to applied materials. you will see tech today having a good day, but if you zoom out -- i am obsessed with this next chart, it is remarkable. we are looking at the nasdaq 100 tech etf. that is the energy sector etf. if you look at the returns over the past five years energy is really narrowing the gap. we are looking at 60% over the past five years. tech is still in charge with 80% gains over the past five years, but that gap, again, really narrowing. with these groups have a lot riding on the midterm elections today, but if we zoom out and look for the overall benchmark, the s&p 500, it is interesting. on

katie greifeld, a different person from a week ago. [laughter] sticking on crypto, let's talk ftx.hat's talk about the rippling across the ecosystem. i have seen your byline on every single piece of update we have been having. you must be exhausted but not as exhausted as a man whose wealth went from $16 billion to zero. what is the next knock on effect? what are we waiting for an terms about news of bankruptcy? >> the bankruptcy news itself is a huge shocker for the industry. no one had seen this coming. when i started the week, i did not know how this was going to pan out. we are seeing some contagion effect. voyager, a bankrupt lender, was supposed to be bailed out by ftx. they now have to restart their bidding process. because of this bankruptcy procedure. at the same time, even for big crypto market such as genesis they have money that is trapped in their ftx and they have to get capital infusion from their parent group. we are expecting to see more companies coming out to disclose impact. we know from the bankruptcy itself, from alameda, there is 100,000 creditors listed. the

katie greifeld is here with the shock that what we read, that bankruptcy statement coming finally. what did you make of the more sensational parts? katie: this is just day one. the first thing we have seen from john j right the third. like you highlighted, this was the man who helped liquidate enron and drove that, saying this is a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information. really slamming the record-keeping that was going on. what caught my eye was this treasure trove. he also took to task the concentration of control as well. it sounds like a lot of it rested with spf, which is a small handful of people. combine that with shoddy record-keeping and here you are. ed: a big part of this story is looking for things and not knowing where they are. the administrators are looking at ftx, the digital assets they held and saying, where are they? katie: it is a pressing question. we know they were able to locate about 740 million dollars worth of cryptocurrency in cold wallets. they found about $560 million in cash. add that toge

katie greifeld covers the markets with us. what just happened in the last 24 hours? katie: almost as quickly as binance said it would come to the rescue, it is already backing away from the deal. there's two big concerns. that big financial hole that binance was looking into. there is great reporting on the bloomberg terminal breaking in the last few minutes. they told investors that ftx was going to need a cash injection or it's going to file for bankruptcy. ftx told investors that the company faced a shortfall of up to $8 billion. that's quite the whole. the other side is, what is going on with the customer funds? another bloomberg news exclusive today, breaking the news that new wet -- u.s. regulators are looking at that issue, whether ftx improperly handled customer funds. look at the statement that binance put out. both of those issues were top of mind when they were considering whether to go through with this takeover. emily: the ceo of coinbase called into the show yesterday to talk about his take on the deal. we asked whether coinbase had thought about acquiri

katie greifeld is going to fill in later. >> i think that has been undersold this week.hly 161 to 174. >> still -60. >> iesco to go back in there has been dip one, dig two. is a greater inversion and we are back to the paul volcker years in the 1980's. on jobs day, an odd job -- an odd jobs day, we were briefed by the chief u.s. economist of economics. i want to dovetail your sound market economics with what nick turner, our tech division, because the new tech austerity. explain jobs friday with the tech austerity we are seeing in different shades from lift app -- clickbank -- lyft, amaxon and the rest. >> we are expecting to see a shift in the labor market. we are looking at jobs data. some shifts in the economy. what we are really seeing is just not a broad-based weakening of conditions. the labor market is still very tight. demand for markets is still very tight. if you look at the job openings and the unemployed signals, they are still very strong in terms of underlying strength of the labor market. we have seen rising claims over the last three weeks. we are watchin

katie greifeld. shock and awe, almost becoming numb to it. what did you take away from the hearing? katie: a fiery first day. in addition to what you were saying about the assets being lost or stolen, this back-and-forth on the top 50 biggest creditors, the fact that their names are redacted, we don't know who they are. that was an interesting storyline. it is really unusual that their names would not be made public. there were at least two groups of crypto creditors. they sent their lawyers there. one of those lawyers was protecting -- or was working for members of that top 50 group, really arguing their identities should be kept secret. for now, we know that they are going to remain unidentified. that is interesting when you try to map the contagion about what more shoes are we waiting to drop. we would like to know who is on that list. it is going to remain under wraps for now. ed: missing assets. a debate around the assets, of who should be doing what about what to talk about what is happening in parallel in the bahamas? katie: that is the thing. what court has jurisdiction here

katie greifeld is tracking these moves for us. katie: we are looking at a broad rally.ifferent picture when i was here just an hour ago. you have the s&p up 1.2%. you do have amgen rallying strongly after a pretty good trial result for its obesity cholesterol drug. and the chipmakers are leading the charge. the sox up almost 3%. what stuck out to me is you are looking at a bond rally today. you have the 10 year yield down seven basis points, even though we have a heavy week of auctions. i will call this the opposite of a concession. we will see how that goes. if you look under the hood of this rally, it is the old economy that is leading the gains. have dupont almost 9% higher, bowing up 2.7%. if you look over the past 4.5 weeks boeing is up something like 40% or so. on the other hand you have some of your tech down. we are talking about lyft, talking about take-two. lyft in particular down 21%. those shares hovering around an all-time low as they cap with uber -- continues to widen. you do have an s&p 500 rallying strongly. it did pop above its 50 day moving average. i

katie greifeld scheduled summer on the crypto course later. we are thrilled to bring you mandy seeing of bloomberg intelligence whose encyclopedia of what goes on behind the walls of the silicon valley companies. this is a moving story that bloomberg will cover throughout the morning. we also have to look at the further curve inversion. the bond dynamics continue. >> this hinges on all of the speak have been hearing from the federal reserve and now christine lagarde. earlier this morning, the year -- the european hours that we had to look forward and see how even the risk of recession is not sufficient to stop them from continuing to raise rates. did she say 5%-7%? that stopped the market. -- that didn't stop the market. he said yes, it is realistic. i said what probability would you assign a 7% rate? he set the team percent. that is nothing but it is not small. >> jon ferro is out on assignment. i would say with the rapidity's for this week of layoffs including at amazon and everyone has their own story here, all of a sudden, the jobs report

i will start with katie greifeld. she has been outstanding and giving us coverage.s one of the ugliest charts i have ever seen. today we dip to 15,000. does anybody care about that price action? >> i think so. it has held. we are talking about roundish numbers. using the chart is ugly but i think, anyway, it is kind of beautiful. you get these plateaus and drops. you do not really see that in other assets. lisa: why have we not seen a bigger job? and we do not know will be. tom colin who are they? -- tom: who are they? lisa: that was a bit creepy. >> can you imagine if i revealed myself? but that is 3% of the outstanding supply of bitcoin. you have a lot of large holders and at this point, the fact that we are at $16,000 from -- they are gone. they have already been flushed out and you are left with the true believers. tom: seriously, who are they? >> there is a difference between somebody who is a creditor, a customer who lost money, and people who keep their bitcoin in cold storage out of these hot wallets that had them stored on the blockchain. lisa: what does co

crypto, we do this with katie greifeld.since november 14. it has rolled over ever so slightly in the last hour, down $62, under $16,500. when all of these players look at the price of bitcoin, how does it correlate to their future? how are they linked to the price of bitcoin? katie: dcg. tom: how is that linked to the price of bitcoin? katie: if you go to spf tweets, there is a lot. if you go to his tweets, he has said ftx was over there skis on leverage. maybe that is not such a horrible thing, or less bad when it is going up, but that is amazing. it just shows this grind lower, discontinued step down. now, we are sitting at $16,000 on bitcoin. it is a lot easier to cover up brewing ills in a bull market when things are going up. obviously, that is not happening anymore. tom: you and your colleagues published on mr. silver last night. this is important. he is not dashing around, talking to tom brady. all of a sudden, he is called into question. what do you mean that -- what do you mean by that? katie: dcg is the parent com

katie greifeld, i could not tie her shoes on this.ates the hope that seems to be drifting away. jon: genesis suspended withdraws on its lending arm in a fresh blow to crypto. we will pick up on that in a moment. we will catch up with greg valliere of agf investments. quite the story in florida. the former president announces he is making a run, and the blackstone chief comes out and tells axios, not supporting that one. tom: no comment from the governor of florida. jon: i wonder if that is who he will be supporting. this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. the leaders of nato and poland say there is no indication a missile that struck polish territory was an intentional russian attack. the blast killed two people in a village a few miles from the border with ukraine. nato says it is likely the explosion was caused by a ukrainian air defense missile fired against russian cruise missiles. donald trump says in order to make america glorious again, he will make

we went from katie greifeld on a reporting of ftx, whatever it is called, it was quite good.ked up by the media. you did the job yesterday. are you any more knowledgeable on bit dog? i am still not. i feel dumb. lisa: the one thing i will say to conflate it coin with the entire crypto universe is a no-no. you will get hate mail. tom: i do not agree. lisa: ok. tom: i think that is an underline. jon ferro on assignment today. we are going to drive forward in the conversation. lydia you may you'd and sonali put together a important update. as we go into a movable feast of a difficult tuesday for crypto. what are you looking for to happen with genesis this tuesday? sonali: if they file for bankruptcy, how far does that contagion also go? you have genesis lending, which is that lending entity that had been caught up in this liquidity crisis in the bitcoin industry. it is part of the industry run by digital currency group that is very sober, -- baker, a creator of the predecessor to nasdaq --. tom: i am adamant about this. there is an underline to every transaction. howley is all o