. >> from new york city, i am katie greifeld in four jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. katie: coming up, another hot jobs print to force the fed's hand, making it harder to find the terminal rate. we begin with the big issue in unacceptably strong labor market. >> the labor market has not cracked. >> solid labor market. >> good news for the economy. >> this surprise to the upside. >> it is disconcerting. >> prospects are worrisome. >> the fed cannot stop until the labor market starts to slow down. >> it is bad news because once again fed communication has contributed to undo volatility in markets. >> stocks are down and bond yields are up. >> we are all subject to the data. >> wages are going up at a rapid clip. >> the services sector continues to be solid. the most important determinant for inflation going forward will be the services component. >> we need to see wage growth come down. >> it will take longer to see it. katie: joining us now, bank of america -- great to have you guys with us. megan, i want to start with you. i was

>> from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am katie greifeld in for jonathan ferro. bloomberg real yield starts right now. ♪ katie: still fighting the fed on 2023 rate cuts. a december surprise from the bank of japan. and bond issuers planning a new year's blitz. we begin with a big issue, closing out a messy year for markets. >> the volatility to start the year. >> we have seen that volatility play out. >> 10-year treasury yields breaking 4%. >> inflation is still elevated. >> the biggest factor this year is man-made volatility. >> fixed income, equities, currencies. >> we have a war, federal reserve tightening rates. we have all types of things going on in the oil market that are beyond anyone's control. >> there is another issue that has to drop and that is the economy. >> what can go right in 2023? >> we don't think it will necessarily be a year of robustness. >> there is so much pessimism. >> recovery will not be easy. katie: joining us now to discuss, jim's michael collins, luke hickman, and troy gayeski. you heard it there, a lot of uncertainty, pain priced int

>> from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am katie greifeld in for jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield" starts now. coming up, another sign inflation is still very much an issue which eggs the question, can the fed afford to slow down? and all is the primary market goes dark for primary bonds. we begin with the issue -- >> we have cp in weekend the fed announcement. what will you hear from chair powell? >> the nation print will be important. >> cpi. >> we are watching cpi numbers closely -- >> services inflation and wage inflation remains resilient -- >> expect core inflation in the u.s.. >> the bond market tells you inflation is a thing of the past and the fed has done too much. >> they are trying to monitor how the economy is reacting to hikes. >> the fed should be able to stop around 4.75 or 5%. >> now that the fed is closer to pause, inflation is starting to roll over, you will get diversification properties from fixed income as well. >> it's a good idea to owned bonds. >> we believe bonds are back. >> how year from now, yields were bu lower. >> stress will co

katie: i'm katie greifeld. this is "bloomberg real yield."he global debt market saw 148 fundraising actions with bonds, loans and asset-backed securities were $75 billion hold in 2022. in the u.s., bond offerings dried up in december. volume set to finish down by 16% from 2021. j.p. morgan sold $3 million earlier this week to narrowly take the lead in the league tables for high-grade sales in 2022. we caught up with notable investor bruce richards from marathon calls for a recession in the second half of next year. that coupled with an earnings recession will start downgrades and a default cycle. bruce: we think will have a default rate of 10%. that is enormous because the high-yield market used to be a one .7 trillion dollar market and now it is a $5 trillion market, so 10% of that is whopping. for us to pick a quality portfolio of double b credits, loans, structured credit that yields 8%, 9%, 10% that will default and then you have a default cycle picking up and that allows you to play it multiple different ways. katie: still with us, georg

tom: the final data point which we will do because katie greifeld is here. bitcoin is down 6%.hat is called doing a tesla. katie greifeld joins us now. ". when he woke up today, what did you focus on in the crypto world? katie: of the focus is still on sam bankman-fried. tom: still on the soap opera of this guy? are you kidding me? katie: it is the only news we have when you think about where the potential next shoe to drop is. we know for sure what is happening with sam bankman-fried because it is playing out so publicly. the news yesterday was the $250 million bail bond. tom: this was a series that silly conversation. the adults are saying, down, this is how it works. are you surprised this clown did not plead guilty coming off the plane? katie: it is interesting. that is the next point to watch. his next appearance is january 3, so maybe not today but that is what we are watching for. he has maintained until he was arrested he was not committing intentional fraud at ftx but that it was gross mismanagement. that gets harder to defend when you have the likes of caroline elliso

katie greifeld tracking that news. katie: the move in crude. technology doing pretty well. u.s.r discretionary down a here or so thanks to tesla. the week starts tomorrow when we get uscp is expected to be 7.3% year-over-year. look at the five -- look at the past five currencies, a pretty clear trend. the other way around we see stocks fall. we see what tomorrow will hold. guy: great stuff. busy day tomorrow. we join david westin next. it's official, america. xfinity mobile is the fastest mobile service. and gives you unmatched savings with the best price for two lines of unlimited. only $30 a line per month. that means you could save hundreds a year over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. the fastest mobile service and major savings? can't argue with the facts. no wonder xfinity mobile is one of the fastest growing mobile services, now with over 5 million customers and counting. get in on the savings and switch today. ♪ >> from bloomberg world headquarters in new york to our television and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power." is a big week in washington as we wait

katie greifeld in the house. what a week. tie: it was a busy week and i have the end to an ugly week. you look at the past five days for the s&p 500 we have optimism at one point after the cpi numbers came out softer than expected. a 7% handle. we had the fed then it was one line down since then. we will end while we are on the s&p 500. for preparing bring this index into the sectors we have some the worst performers materials down 2.5 percent. consumer discretionary is where it gets interesting. off by about 3.6%. what is interesting to me is that it was tesla and afford driving down -- and ford dragging down that. you have goldman falling by 1% today. after reporting shows goldman is looking at cutting 4000 jobs. that would be about 8% or so pullback. that is according to people familiar with that. and starbucks off more than one percent. and starbucks staff starting a three day strike. meta platforms are up by 2.8%. jp morgan citing cost discipline. caroline: margin is still the focus for many. the holidays are ahead of us

ed: katie greifeld, annie massar, unraveling the unravelable. apple mixing up their headset, changing the name of their operating system to exar os according to sources, a nod to extending reality encompassing augmented and virtual reality, their first major new product category since the apple in 2015. who had the scoop? bloomberg's mark gurman, of course. exar os, what's the thinking behind it? mark: thank you so much for having me. originally this mixed reality operating system, they called it reality os but now they call it ros. it's shorter and more translatable across many geographies. reality is not a word that's very universal. it's not a universal word, they needed more of a universal term, which is why they are leaning towards exar os and a trademark exar os in several countries and they are fighting for that trademark in the u.s. as well with an unrelated chinese company that coincidentally file for the name back in march. ed: in real terms this is a market that meta dominates. what's the timeline for apple to bring the product to mar

katie greifeld joins us. walk me through the flows. you look at the q's and spied, some big selling on wednesday. if you think about what happened on wednesday, we heard from jerome powell the last time before this month's fed meeting. if you look at the price action, it seems like markets took it as pretty dovish. they heard what they wanted to hear. you look at the flows and you see there was not a lot of conviction. people were using the rally as an opportunity to sell. that's interesting, because in the past and a half we have been living with this big rebound in risk assets it seems people really hate this rally. we are approaching year-end. it seems like a lot of people saw this and said i will take some profits here. guy: how was the bond market doing? katie: the same picture. it is fascinating. sell the rally. if you look at lqd, one of the biggest investment grade corporate credit etf, $3 billion came out on monday alone. the biggest outflow ever for this fund. you look at treasuries and it's a little bit of a different picture

we are very pleased on this post-fed day to have katie greifeld joining us for more. tie: a global central bank sort of day. an ugly day in the stock market. you saw the s&p 500 down about 2.5% or so, even worse for big tech. you are looking at the nasdaq 100, off by 3.4%. that as two-year yields rise a little bit, making sense after the hawkish fed we got yesterday. if you look at the ark innovation etf, this one hurt the most, down almost 5%. we know that cathie wood is bullish on tesla and that she has been continuing to buy tesla, even as elon musk continues to sell tesla, for some reason higher today, but if you look at tesla over the last couple of days or so, still just a drop in the bucket, tesla down about 12% over the past four days or so. so a really rough stretch for the carmakers there. let's move on and talk about what we have been seeing year-to-date. because we are almost at 2023, and you look at the worst performers on the year, it's been tech consumer , discretionary, communication services. all of that we tend to put into the broad bucket of tech. am

normally, katie greifeld is here to say sensible things about what is happening in the etf landscape. a whole show about it with matt miller, but she is not here today, so you are left with alix and me, which means we have to decide which ones we are going to talk about, which, funny enough, we have a meeting of minds. we will talk about commodities. i will talk about gold. this was nice on the market slide earlier. etf investors and gold. normally, and the white line here is known etf holdings of gold, the other the gold price, the action happens down in the corner. you have the gold price making a run at $1800, just short, then fading. it is the fate that is important, because what possible explanation for that fade could be is we have not seen this being backed up by etf money either. gold is not being boosted in the way it normally is. you are getting a divergence. it looks like maybe the price may be starting to fade as we don't see the etf story supporting it. money has not been going into gold. maybe that makes some sense. i feel good about this because i know you like a good c

guy: yeah i think we are up 9% since the last meeting on the s&p, katie greifeld.ou very much. senator cynthia loomis is going to join us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's official, america. xfinity mobile is the fastest mobile service. and gives you unmatched savings with the best price for two lines of unlimited. only $30 a line per month. that means you could save hundreds a year over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. the fastest mobile service and major savings? can't argue with the facts. no wonder xfinity mobile is one of the fastest growing mobile services, now with over 5 million customers and counting. get in on the savings and switch today. hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and