let's get a closer look at what is going on in terms of the economy with katie greifeld. katie: we have two important pieces of data, ppi on the weekly claims data. we will focus on the latter. initial jobless claims -- this is a weekly data series -- was way above expectations. that was at 264,000 and the median estimate was 245,000. that is the biggest jump for initial jobless claims since october 2021. the fed has been clear that part of their fight against inflation is taking the edge off the labor market. those bars have been marching downward and that is not great news for the fed. to see this jump is not great for the american worker, but great news for the fed. matt: maybe. we are going to focus in on this with our guest. i want to get to what diane swonk told our fed team. she spoke last week about the fed's fight against inflation. diane: there is no roadmap for where we are at. they are combating inflation. it is not 1994 where they preempted inflation and thought they could find tune the economy. i think that is about threshold for a soft landing. but i also th

katie greifeld just wrapping up her show and focusing on fixed income. she is back with a look at how credit is taking this debt ceiling drama. what are you seeing right now? katie: it is interesting. we have seen a lot of concern in the treasury bill segment. not too much if you look at the investment-grade credit market. but you have ubs, jp morgan saying that could change,. if we get past the x date without a deal, you could see ig spreads hit 200 basis points. if you look back to 2011 when we were last there, it was the level that we reached. ig spreads trading around 150 basis points. they have been remarkably contained and not seen 200 since the early days of the pandemic. we will cf that changes. we know lawmakers are working on a deal. the date is drawing ever closer and jp morgan puts the odds of us getting past that date without a deal at 25%. if that happens, the best guess is this blue line will rise. matt: we will watch that carefully. katie greifeld there looking at ig spreads. let's bring in bnp paribas, meghan robson. great to have you in

avalarahhh ahhh ahhh ahhh >> from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am katie greifeld. bloomberg real yield starts now. >> coming up, inflation is cooling, but expectations are climbing. credit default forecast continuing to pick up. all as the debt ceilings at state draws closer. where are we now? >> this market is trying to figure out, do we get some soft landing, does this work out? >> big schism for this market. >> inflation is headed back to old. >> one month does not make a prim. >> the market is vulnerable. >> people in d.c. have lost the focus. >> having a technical default is not an option. >> this is an issue that needs to be resolved in the next few weeks. >> looking at the risk overall -- >> the risk of recession is high. >> the bond market has been flashing these recession warnings >> for a while. >>a lot of futility is in order as we go into the next few months. >> joining us now, eric nelson of wells fargo and earl davis of bmo world global management. i'm going to start with a question that you posed in the notes you sent over to us. is the inflation we

katie: i am katie greifeld. bloomberg real yield starts right now. coming up the fed delivers its final rate hike even though the labor market still red hot. all regional banking stress continues to spread. we begin with the big issue china takes the edge off. >> we beat across the board. >> the employment rate at a multi-decade low. >> job creation, wage a -- wage growth and unemployment rate. >> tight labor market means one thing. >> this is not getting back to the sewing the bond market is expecting, that the fed is hoping for. >> you're looking at a potential downturn in the economy. >> an economy that is trying to avoid a recession. >> what are the fed does not start cutting? >> escalator into the year, the fed will not cut -- as we go later into the year, the fed will not cut. there were not a cut their spanking turmoil. >> this fed is hard to predict. >> there is no roadmap for where we are at. katie: joining us now a black rock and wells fargo. let's start with you. was that it? have her reach terminal or do you think today's payroll print ch

and thanks to katie greifeld as well for taking us to that interview. bloomberg tv programming note -- how can referees -- hakeem jeffries will join us live, talking about the debt ceiling deal, that interview at 5 p.m. wall street time, it is one you don't want to miss. coming up, what is next for nvidia after entering the trillion dollar club. it is there, folks, and some analysts think it can go much higher. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) -awww. -awww. -awww. -nope. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools your small business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall. >> time for our stock of the hour. let's talk nvidia. the company's market cap, getting to a trillion dollars for the f

helpful context from katie greifeld on what is happening in the crypto sector.erspective from the companies ceo on the decision to end pooled rides. this is next on bloomberg. ♪ good night! hey corporate types. would you stop calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star. hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. pam, you are a rock- i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪ matt: this is bloomberg markets. let's get to our stock of the hour. it is the ridesharing app lyft adding a new tool for riders, pre-booking a car from the airport to wherever they are going. lyft is officially discontinuing shared rides, and option uber is doubling down on. we want to bring in ceo david risher, new ceo as well as bloomberg technology cohost caroline hyde. thank you for joining us. let me start by asking about the feature change. a little shakeup or the lyft app. do you expect this to

katie greifeld is joining us to talk more, a lot of people are curious about how much banks are willinglend. what do we get out of this typically? katie: it is an opinion survey, which tells you is pretty soft. executive methodology is up to 80 large to mystic banks at 24 he was branches of foreign banks are included in the survey, they are asked whether standards for approving loans have changed. the answers range from tighten considerably to ease considerably, it is an opinion survey. there is no hard data that comes from this. trying to map the fallout, availability of credit in the economy, it is another clue. matt: we are looking and where we can. i never heard sloos -- i guess i heard of it, but i never heard anyone call it that. tonight, we are going to get at 4:00 from the fed financial stability report. i guess they do that every month, but now we are really paying attention. what are we going to do with all of the data? are we trying to form a better picture of how close we are to the recession? katie: i think we were having this conversation a few hours ago. one of the dynami

avalarahhh ahhh ahhh ahhh >> from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am katie greifeld. now. >> coming up, inflation is cooling, but exp

katie greifeld is tracking the moves. katie: it is a risk off day. the s&p 500 off by 1.2%.ive outperformer. the nasdaq still off by .7%. you can see that in the bond market as well. almost 12 basis points, as that federal reserve meeting kicks off. all of this is sending a bid into gold. gold futures up by 1%. let's look at oil. you can really see that less -- that risk-office sentiment if you look at the price of crude. down 3.7% right now. below $73 per barrel. this has accelerated in the past few hours or so. have all of these worries around the debt ceiling. janet yellen coming out and saying the government could run out of cash as soon as next month. you take a look at what -- at what that is doing to the people market. moving higher, these are short-term t-bills maturing in the next couple of months or so. a dramatic move across the curve. let's get back to the base. this is where the action is this morning. all of the stocks in the kbw bank index are lower today. you look at some of the worst performers, packed west and western alliance both down double digits, dragg

katie greifeld is here to walk us through what part of the story we should be focused on in this set up. katie: the aaa rating. if we go back to 2011, you had s&p downgrade. he did have them come out and say it is on watch. it is what we are seeing over the debt ceiling talks. it is preventing a resolution and you can see that negative outlook. looking at some of the bill yields that encompass the date in early june, you can see all of those bright colors and you can see the yield really skyrocket. we have a maturing on the 30th. a huge divide has opened up in the market as investors coming into the yields are demanding a higher premium as we count down. matt: maybe not on june 1 or june 6. we will -- we heard from a former director who says even with a deal, big issues still remain. >> regardless of what deal is struck, the fundamental problem is in the large spending programs. there is room to raise more revenue. that is off the table. honestly, until we slow the growth rate, the project will not pick up. matt: deadlock with fitzpatrick. jack, i'm expecting kevin mccarthy has, now -

i am katie greifeld. >> i am in for matt miller. thank god, otherwise i would be all along. let's get to the biggest stories in the more than $9 trillion global e.t.f. industry. traders are on edge amid a crucial meeting between president joe biden and house speaker kevin mccarthy surrounding the debt ceiling negotiations. what does it mean for e.t.f.'s scarlet: we will look through that story when we speak to janel jackson of vanguard who wi

i am katie greifeld. matt: i am matt miller. are all going to go away.

let's get back to katie greifeld and see how this is impacting treasuries. e wall of worries that is emerging in this chart. you are looking at one month t-bill yields encompasses the so-called x date that janet yellen warned. t-bill one mother yields have skyrocketed the past couple weeks. right now, they are about 5.5%. if you go back, this tops the hives we saw in 2007-2008, the great financial crisis. this tells you the markets, at least the people market is taking this seriously. the debt ceilings debate that the debt ceilings debate -- the debt ceiling debates tend to be resolve it will see. matt: i want to ask ed hyman from evercore isi about this. still with us here. a number of people have recommended getting into the front and of the curve. you can see in the flows katie and eric showing the etf flows every week, which is a popular trade but isn't it dangerous? if they do come to an agreement on the debt ceiling, you will see the value of treasuries drop. ed: i saw your interview with bill which i thought was terrific. i don't really have a dog in t

katie: i am katie greifeld. bloomberg real yield starts right now.