here's katie greifeld. katie: it will be fun to see how this changes around 8:30 when we have a dump of data. there is likely little change in the third print so expecting more of these name, below trend growth in the first quarter. we also gets an initial jobless claims. they are continuing to pick up a just slightly. the number expected is 264 versus last week. than -- then we also get home sales. then we do have more fed speak, not from howl, but from atlanta fed president rafael bostic who will be speaking. this is around 3:00 p.m.. we heard from him on the 23rd and he says he favors no more rate hikes. tom: the tension is interesting in that every fed is different. this is rafael bostic who is generally the dust. his statistic is what everybody watches. the atlanta gdp number which michael mckee is just make it above 2% statistic. katie: there is tension and we see this in their words but then you think of the fact there were no dissents in the last meeting. then we finished the day with nike reporting

katie greifeld is with us. katie: you are going with a hawkish hold as the expectation today. everyone expects the central bank will stay put at this afternoon's meeting. this is where pricing gets interesting. so far, markets are pricing in 17 basis points of a quarter-point hike. then you look at what is priced and on the others in terms of cuts. you are around 20 basis points. seems like a bit of a wash when you add it together. if this actually happens, we have one more hike and cut and you will end up in the same place. we will hear from jerome powell in a moment. the market can be different but he will ask about the rate cut pricing. matt: a 5.1 percent implied rate today and a five point 1% implied rate for december 13, the last meeting of the year. it is expected to be a wash. the fed has been topic number one across the bloomberg platforms today. earlier, victoria fernandez said the markets might be missed pricing the fed. >> i am not sure the fed is dead. i know futures are pricing in 25 basis point hike at the july meeting but i think they will go further. i think t

for that, we go to katie greifeld. katie: there is a disconnect between what powell is saying and with the market is pricing. investors are pricing in 25 basis points of further rate hikes, pricing and about eight basis points. you can see on both ends, the pricing has come in. if the market was taking powell at his word that pricing for hikes would be closer to 50 basis points and pricing for a cut the eight basis points in red, they probably would not exist. this is a market that has come to blows with powell a couple of times and it looks like that is still the case. jon: stay with us, we will bring in veronique de rugy with george mission -- mason university for more perspective. we heard about powell's commitment to the hawkish path, what was your reaction to the testimony today? dr. de rugy: i thought it sounded very much like what we have heard from chairman powell for many, many months. i think it is unfortunate that he will not field questions about fiscal policy. i know it has become taboo in the last 25 years

katie greifeld is here doing double duty. look for her in the final hour of surveillance. e you doing a.m. as well? katie: i have two hits that is matt miller. tom: she will show up here at 9:00. and she has the lead statistic of the day. thank you for talking with us yesterday about the yankees perfect game and his and mine memories of this and as covax in 1965 with the perfect game. outside of a few days in early march, the u.s. two year yield is kissing the highest level in 16 years. that folds right into your discussion this afternoon. katie: you basically keep underestimating the fed. the market has been a threat -- underestimating the fed in terms of conviction. there going to get inflation under control and hike until they get there. there going to hold witches and and as the puzzle -- old which is an important piece of the puzzle. tom: we will do the equity chat here in a minute with sam stove all. we will do a dated debrief with katie greifeld. i do this in honor of the last day of the -- t-bill 5.3%. could you imagine a 6%? we will talk with ira jersey about that.

gerard cassidy joining us and katie greifeld.he idea of pain in the banking sector, what is your right thoughts on that? garard: is reflective of what the u.s. economy does. if we're in for a soft landing, the pain will be less severe. a hard landing would make it more difficult. amongst the top 20 banks we are not worried about any of them. in any downturn, any recession -- 1990 is one example. 2008-2009, there were bank failures. in a traditional recession there are smaller bank failures. it is something that is very manageable. matt: katie, the kr re-is something -- kre is something we learned about this year. the kbe is the one we all know and love. how have they performed this year? katie: you have seen kre come back to life. it's been a performing kbe, the broader banking sector over the past month. both of those feeling a little pain today. i would ask you that, gerard. how sustainable is that performance we are seeing out of the regionals outperforming the big banks? garard: it is going to be reflective on with the federa

>> from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm katie greifeld. bloomberg's real yield starts now. coming up, powell and peers say the inflation fight is far from over, with wall street divided over where yields go next. coming up, our exclusive interview with the oaktree capital management incoming cio. barreling into the second half. >> the report this morning was good. >> three waves of inflation that we had, the demand shock after the pandemic, the supply shock of the war and profit let inflation, wave one and two. >> things are continuing to be much better than expected. >> i don't think this is the end of the bull market. >> the economy is robust. >> i don't think an awful lot has changed yet. >> our call is that the fed will probably stay in or around current levels. >> the>> fed is being vigilant in terms of keeping rates hot. >> it's not out of the question that they raise rates by 25 or even 50 basis points by the end of the year. >> we are looking at a new interest rate regime moving forward. >> i think it's a relatively hawkish message

the spring -- let's bring back katie greifeld about what to expect. e: behind me we have the baseline scenario that the fed has lined out. unemployment rises to 5%. home prices come up a little bit and you get a little bit of a detraction in real gdp and equities flat. that is the baseline that these banks are being tested for. let's talk about the adverse scenario because it is pretty traumatic. it is much more dramatic. equities are going to fall much more and he will see unemployment rise much higher. what is interesting is for the first time in 2023, there will be an exploratory measure that is to try to address what we saw in march. we had the financial system coming under pressure and it seemed like big banks were not equipped to handle it, so the stress test has become more of a lift with some measures added. matt: stay with us as we bring in advisor barry knapp. very, thank you for coming on the program. what is your take on these banking stress tests? it seems like the big banks sale right through them, so why do we care? barry: the missing sc

as ringback katie greifeld -- less ringback katie greifeld -- let's bring back katie greifeld.see earnings-per-share for the s&p 500 dropping 16% here to $185 per share. the median projection among strategists is about $206 per share. we will see if that materializes. a lot of analysts have been calling for earnings already drop off a clip -- cliff and we know earnings have been more resilient than most expected but. one person wrote we think the downside risk to u.s. earnings is now. that is the base case for them and that is why they see the s&p 500 around 3900 by year end. right now, we are sitting below 4300. matt: i am checking on apple stock, it is only up 9/10 of 1%. it had been up 2.7 -- 2.25%. do you see anyone else out with this kind of bearish take or is it only this analyst? katie: you had a note from city --citi saying if you look at the rally that has been built, they said this is a sugar rush will stop those are my words but they point to light positioning and this ai hype we have seen and they see that fading and ai will be a hot topic at the moment but it will

that is next. ♪ katie: i'm katie greifeld. time now for the final spread.onfidence. wednesday, test results. thursday, u.s. gdp and friday rounding out the week with the preferred inflation measurement. talk about the bank stress results. standards are tougher than a year ago. from new york, that does it for us. this is bloomberg. ♪ or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh when i was his age, we had to be inside to watch live sports. but with xfinity, avalarahhh we get the fastest mobile service and can stream down the street or around the block. hey, can you be less sister, more car? all right, let's get this over with. switch to xfinity mobile and get the best price for 2 lines of unlimited. just $30 a line per month. i should get paid more for this. you get paid when you win. it's an amazing thing from xfinity. home of the 10g network. when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. >> welco

katie greifeld has more on that. i guess if you look at some of the trends with chapter 11 announcements, one of the common thread has been companies with debt issues. katie: exactly. behind me i have the bloomberg bankruptcy index. you go back to 2019, it doesn't look as scary. we had a big spike in 2020. this looks at corporations with more than $50 in reported liability ,and it tracks activity, bankruptcy activity among that subset. kind of distorted -- $500 million, that is -- distorted by the spike in 2020. if you train your eyes on 2022, it has been increasing quite a bit. we see more committees filing bankruptcy -- more companies filing for bankruptcy. if you break down the performance of the corporate credit market, it is the riskier credits that have been outperforming. up there in purple you have leverage loans leading the way and you have the triple c's, drunkest junk debt out there, posting year to date--junkiest junk debt out there, posting year-to-date returns. over the past year still negative when it c

also joining us for the conversation is katie greifeld. nick, nice to have you with us.uess the keyword is could. the determining factors on what happens from here? nick: ask for having me, guys. we are in a period now where defaults have been very low. we have been in a really sub-2% default rate for an extended period after covid. we got to about 6.5% peak there at the end of 2020. but all of those liquidity infusions, market reaction, the surge in issuance we saw in 2021 really helped to keep the default rate fairly low. now, we are seeing the effect of this rising interest rate cycle really start to pick up. the composition of the debt is more loans that are more sensitive in the near-term. and so, as this pressure rises and we think it will be higher for longer, it is just going to start to wear away with cash flow slow down that we expect in the economy coming forward as well. matt: i guess the question is when, right? we were just talking to jeff sherman, the deputy cio at doubleline capital. he said yeah, that is going to be a problem because those are floating r

>> i'm katie greifeld. bloomberg real yield starts now. a hawkish hold after 10 straight hikes with powell ruling out rate cuts for a couple years. jp morgan says get out of the cash trap. moving in with the big issue, not done yet. [video clip] the markets do not believe the fed is going to make[video clip] >> -- >> i believe maybe it is not a question of belief but relative positioning. >> powell did a good job keeping that relatively hawkish option there. >> the market does not believe that all the fed is going to deliver those two hikes. >> the market is thinking this will be a shallower recession then thought. >> it is feeling the fed is almost finished. >> we think the fed is done here. >> we are likely to have seen our last rate hike. >>.i will not be surprised if we get one more hike powell was unwilling to commit to july. >> the fed is undecided. >> the fed once all options on the table. >> the fed has to sleep with one eye open while into the future. >> seeing is going to have to be believing. >> joining us now is matthew destock

let's bring in bloomberg's katie greifeld out of new york to wrap some of the headlines out of that conversation. what were the key takeaways? katie: it was interesting to hear more insight about what coinbase communication, what their relationship with the sec has been. it was interesting to hear that the sec's tone has changed and coinbase went to the agency multiple times and was met with silence and as a result here we are today. we knew they have been critical of the sec approach. we got that statement yesterday criticizing what they call just reliance on enforcement. regulation by enforcement. we heard more than today from armstrong himself. ed: the sec sued both coinbase and binance u.s. operations this week, essentially accusing them of peddling unregistered securities. what was interesting, onstage, brian armstrong reference to that other suit away from coinbase without naming it and said to his mind perhaps the sec was trying to conflate the two. what did you make of that? sonali: -- katie: he tried to draw the line between the cases. we have been talking about them in the same breath

i'm katie greifeld. matt: i am matt miller. as the smoke horse down from canada, the bank of canada raising rates. let's get to the biggest stories . be more than $9 trillion global etf industry. an unprecedented height. u.s. debt dealers are now focused back on central banks. katie: after jp morgan success in etf's, goldman prepared to launch funds quite similar to their rival bank. matt: now that it is the start of summer, people are planning vacations and we look at one etf ready for a getaway. katie: we have eric bell between us from bloomberg intelligence, here with us, looking at the flows. eric: last week, i gave good news that etf's finally beginning to wake up a little bit. there has been the foam of drought all year. equities of data but no flows. voo is good. hyg and the qqq have a nice hold which i will expand on in a minute. the inflows into btt were likely things we should -- vgt with things we likely should not get excited to. spy is notable but still 8 billion over the past month. eem is emerging markets but loo

powell and policy, let's look at financial conditions with our cross asset reporter katie greifeld. katie: if you look at financial conditions, a way to measure the rate hikes effects on the economy, looking at this measure, it looks like we are in easier territory. green is easier and red means more restrictive territory when it comes to the economy. it is interesting to hear the comments from powell on banks because if you look in march, you can see we spiked into the red there. since then, you have seen conditions loosen up a little bit. we are back in green. i remember at that time in march, the thought exercise on wall street was how much of a tightening impulse is this worth? the stress we are seeing in banks and the idea that credit could become less available? i'm just looking at this chart, it seems that at least judging by financial conditions, it is not too much of a concern so far. jon: really helpful, thank you. as both katie and kailey mentioned, jay powell highlighting the need for higher capital on wall street. chair powell: the capital requirements will be very skewe

marty chavez and david siegel, they are speaking now with bloomberg's katie greifeld. >> people are noting to think of, what are the most effective ways of using them? we have such limited time, i don't want to do a deep five or talk about things people may know. but for example, large language models are very good at takings -- taking text and summarizing. the summaries may not be all that reliable, but they can summarize things. that can be a boost to humans, if you need a summary. to be clear, large language models, you know they give inaccurate information. they cannot really be used for a problem where you definitely have to get the right answer. if you want to diagnose the health condition that you have, you can type it into chat-gpt and get an answer. but if you know not to believe that, you might use that as a starting point. for applications where you don't need exactly the right answer or it is ok that it could be completely wrong, and there are many applications like that, it will be very useful. but just like with every other tool that has been injected, time will tell. kati

risk off sentiment, aside from that, katie greifeld is looking at etf flows and why investors are showing fomo. jon: it looks like fomo is winning. katie: you can see the bright yellow bar. equity etf's have taken in more year to date than their counterparts. in march we had a lot of risk off sentiment that sent billions into fixed income etf's. but the current standing is that equity etf's have taken in over $100 billion year to date. it took a while but the stocks are back in charge. earlier today we heard from john hancock saying this move into risk is a little too late. john: there is not a lot of risk being priced in. the time to fix the roof is when the sun is shining. you have to have a risk on to outperform this year. we would love to trim into this strength and redeployed into higher income after an exceptional run. matt: the question is why is it too late? katie is still with us. the rally is too far, too fast? are we worried about earnings later on in the year? katie: we have already seen the move. you look at the nasdaq 100. it is up 38% this year. if you are coming in right n

katie: i am katie greifeld. this is bloomberg real yield.auction block in like the weather in new york today, it's hot. your had a record month of may with bonsall topping 119 billion euros. bmw helps to drive this week sales. in the u.s., cvs and at&t flooded the market with offerings, making the month of may the second busiest so far this year and the most active masons 2020. in high-yield, private equity backed sales propelled issuance at $22 billion, making it the busiest month for supply since january, 2022. even with those red hot sales come investors remain nervous about added stress on the system. >> credit is always the canary in the coal mine. the equity market doesn't seem to be paying attention to it now. the fixed income and credit markets are not necessarily paying enough attention to the details. when we look at small, private issuers, they are defaulting at an alarming rate at the moment. when you look at repeat filers, they've increased quite a bit as well. these are your weakest links in your weakest links always go first.

here to explain is mizuho's -- and katie greifeld. let me start with you.ow much of this is coinbase losing market share rather than robinhood gaining market share? >> thanks for having me on the show. it is interesting, is a closed loop. the way we looked at it is we looked at the relative share of coinbase versus robinhood, we did not include anyone else. in this closed loop, it is very clear that share is moving away from coinbase to robinhood. we have done other work that shows either robinhood, that coinbase was losing share to the entire ecosystem. this is the first time we are able to prove it in its affect. that is what makes it interesting. matt: you are a cross asset reporter, but you focus heavily on crypto. you noticed this, as well. it comes with increased regulation, scrutiny on coinbase. how much of this is investors who were using coinbase a lot pulling out? katie: that is what i want to ask dan. coinbase is having a tough time with the sec right now. the sec filing suit against coinbase. it is interesting, your analysis seems to predate all

start saving today at godaddy.com >> i'm katie greifeld. bloomberg real yield starts now.

i am katie greifeld. matt: and i am matt miller. news that has happened. katie: a lot of matt: macroeconomics as well. matt:we will go through it when we talk about the $10 trillion etf industry right now. we will speak in just a moment with jeff sherman, the deputy cio of double line capital. katie: and we will also discuss with jeff the implications of the federal pause and where rates might go from here. matt: also, as we wait the

. >> from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm katie greifeld.real yield starts now. coming up, powell and pe

lisa: katie greifeld, thank you so much. tom: we have breaking news, what do we have here?tlantic about chris lift the head over at cnn and today the new york times is reporting who booster of cnn is no longer. he is out five days after the article which people characterized as jamming he tried to change some of the ways the network was right after the trump era as well as some sort of details of his leadership moving his seat from the newsroom up to the 22nd floor. it was seen as sort of assigned of not reading the room. tom: it's a little unclear. maybe he will be leaving the company i'm not sure what the dynamics here of this very much breaking news story. it just goes back to a fixation within three zip codes. it has larger ramifications. lisa: cnn is not allowed. they have their own story and certainly there are idiosyncrasies to it but there has been a question around the role of network news and it's sort of ironic to be speaking about this but it's true. there is a way people get news whether it's social media, streaming types of networks, i think there aren't a lot

katie greifeld has been helpful in giving us clarity on that. it's stable at 27,000. a joy, the global head of currency at brown brothers harriman. he is very good on the pacific rim all the way up to japan but with a more global basis as well. when you approach currencies, what is the first pair that gives you information right now? >> thanks for having me. it's always a pleasure to see you each and every time i think dollar euro is the main thing but to me, dollar yen as recently been the real barometer. that's when you see the monetary policy. bank of japan has remained in the dove camp more than anyone expected. the fed continues to tighten and remain hawkish so that pair reflects monetary policy divergence. in a sense, the question is out and whether the ecb is defensive. it's stark, the difference between the boj and the fed that it tells me the dollar will get stronger. tom: we will talk about the basic thing everybody in radio and tv wants. why should we care about the yen? why should we care about flawed theory out of the bank of japan? >> the bank of japan i