katrina vanden heuvel is author of "the nation."er magazine has already made an endorsement for the presidential race, bernie sanders. arianna, how surprised were you by iowa? >> i wasn't really surprised. i think what was surprising is the way all the polls had gotten wrong and the way everybody in the media kept touting those polls saying the "des moines register" poll has it wrong once, outside the margin of error. there was an expectation that trump would win based on nothing more than the way polling results dominate political coverage. in the sense that the media are covering the polls, they are not really covering the campaigns. >> david, you've been writing that you think rubio has a rough road ahead. would you agree, though, that it seems to be separating into three groups, the hard right sort of economic conservatives, plus evangelicals for cruz, the establishment mainstream whatever you call it for rubio, and the strange third group of populus nativists for trump. are those the three categories? >> that sounds right. and