kayley: it's not just about the nominal five year yield. medium-term inflation expectations are moving higher. the central bank of russia has to deal with in elation at a five-year high with the rate decision coming at 6:30 a.m. eastern time. the expectation is they will hike. you have the higher inflation also covid restrictions coming back into play which complicate the picture. coming up later in terms of economic data, preliminary october market pmi. we are expecting a small tick down but they tick up in services. at 11 a.m. eastern time, the big event of the day, fed chairman jerome powell and francine lacqua will moderate a panel on financial stability channel edges in the central bank. this conversation is at a moment were central banks are in a tough spot because we have inflation caused by supply-side challenges and monetary policy can't be much about that but they might be forced to hike rates anyway. jonathan: what a phenomenal panel stuff we need to ask that chow -- the chairman where he stands on rate hikes. tom: this is an imp

kayley: the breakeven rate is driving the yield. oil is really helped out by the global energy crunch and that will be on the agenda again for the european council summit as they meet in brussels to talk about the power crunch and how do they navigate the impact on consumers and their push to do better on climate change? it's hard to have those issues come together given that renewable energy hasn't provided a backstop in this energy crisis. we will also get preliminary pmi and how the supply chain issues show up in manufacturing. the event of the day, 11 a.m. eastern time, we will have fed chairman jerome powell on a panel. the topic is post-pandemic policy and the challenges it presents. when the market is pulling forward hike expectations, how do policymakers navigate that? the boe is looking more hawkish. jonathan: this market is just starting to push back over the last couple of weeks. tom: all of our conversations are different but i love the holistic 60,000 foot view our guest will give you distilled down to what i do monday