. >>> absolutely, kbw ceo thomas michaud. is this liquidity crunch for financials. >>> former federal reserve chair donald kohn is with us when this means for the fed. >>> taking a look at the market right now, it's actually holding up the dow's gone positive. it was under pressure earlier this morning s&p down only 0.2 of 1%. the nasdaq taking it the hardest, but we're off the lows already. we're seeing strength in groups like energy and health care today. the market is treating it like an isolated event, even inside the financials with jpmorgan about an hour ago going green. >> jpmorgan went green cramer's been saying watch j&j, the most pristine balance sheet on the s&p elevated vix back up to 24 and change as we said earlier, the fed's next rate hike is in focus after today's pretty good jobs number but the fallout in the banks is adding to that the financial sector shows some cracks a chance of 50-basis-point hike jumped to 72% on wednesday following those hawkish days of testimony from the fed chair now down to just 30%

as ubs shakes up their ranks, analysts at kbw are shaking up their calls.a out from earlier this week before the ermotti decision was announced, they said they were placing their underperformance call with a ubs underperform. they wrote ubs may well have made an incredible deal in the long run, but we see a near-term disruption to the investment days, with disgruntlement from other stakeholders over the deal as likely to continue. let's talk to the man behind the note, that is andrew stimpson, kbw head of european banks research. no one would rather talk to you today. does that view still hold now that ermotti is coming back, does your opinion about that disgruntlement change? andy: there is a lot of work for mr. ermotti to get through. he is the right man for the job. he did a great job at ubs. i think you will make a success of it. it is more about the timing of that, and the long list of things to do that he is got to get to in the near term that we're more concerned about. dani: what is the biggest execution risk at this moment? andy: we can sit on our

kbw bank index is down another 1.5%.love for the banks right now and sentiment has been turning. the two year yield is not changed for a change, it's at 4.09 and it got to 3.55 last week and a little bit of weight to the u.s. dollar, no love for the dollar either with recession concerns. jon: we are also seeing some interesting trends underneath some of the broader indices. let's talk about financials and technology. within the financial sector, there are still concerns about where deposits are flowing. morgan stanley is worry about them flowing away from schwab. we will talk about that story later but stock is down about 5.5%. within technology, you had a good move story this week with micron results. semtec is taking a hit, down about 20% on concerns about the market. shares of blackberry basically not changed and we are watching that in canada. the company will report its quarterly results and they told us they missed out on some key deals during the quarter. we will watch for more details on a portfolio sale. restora

week as actually the big tech still outperforms when we are worried out -- about small tech and the kbw bank index, another 15% on the week, down 5% on the day, down the most on the month since march 20, 2020, 28% of value of the kbw bank index has been extinguished. two year yield flight to safety again, up by tony for basis points this as we see inflation expectations from the consumer from data coming down. let's look at what is happening with an inflation hedge at the moment, is it some sort of safety trade at the moment, up 23% in the last five days, dig into some of the micro news. ed: lamella tech -- mentality of the market is interesting. half a percentage point with most names are down there's a debate whether that is a move to safety or feel-good from there and -- ai announcements. video pushing hire 1%, morgan stanley calling it a megatrend in ai and video talked about for a few days now as one of the main beneficiaries. interesting to look at the streamers, disney down, netflix down significantly, third-party data out friday showed disney's ad supported tear of disney plus i

the nasdaq kbw index closed down nearly 12%.ames like citibank, bank of america, saw losses throughout the day. some of the biggest losses were by regional banks. first republic, another san francisco bank saw its value drop nearly 50%, despite chase bank coming in and offering financial support to shore up its finances. some of those stocks had trading suspended throughout the day because they were dropping too quickly that scared regulators. at the end of the day, it was not as bad as some expected. some investors found opportunity and hope in the government's recent actions to shore up the banking situation, seeing that as a sign maybe interest rates will not be raising as quickly. others sought protection in stable government bonds. we saw a lot of investors putting money there and what is considered a safer investment -- in what is considered a safer investment. that could be assigned there is still a lot of concern about the state of the economy. >> authorities have been reassuring packed players they will not be liable fo

what is holding up the overall indices is the kbw bank index. top performers in s&p up by 2.5%.on: it's interesting when we look to technology. some stocks cooling off. need a compelling story to get investors excited today. some analyst commentary surrounding roku, which we were covering when it came to the deposits at silicon valley bank, getting a vote of confidence from wall street based on analyst commentary. while bookings have been pretty strong, the cost realities are raising profit margin pressure. there's also a big question about what happens if banks start to pull back on lending. a cautious note on caterpillar. it is up right now, but if you see less commercial real estate activity, does that mean less demand for caterpillar equipment? to your point, there is general enthusiasm within the banking sector, whether it is the regionals referenced or a component like jp morgan, which is up 3%. alix: and oil is up big, too. let's get to the banking sector. first citizens agreeing to buy silicon valley bank. joining us now from san francisco is ed ludlow. the first thing i

joining wedbush, kbw who raised their rating on the stock yesterday. look at this with our own mike santoli. i guess there's a huge amount of attention, mike, being paid to this particular purchase of assets and loan portfolios because it might be a blueprint in case people are worried about whether or not regional banks can actually take on deposits and thrive in the aftermath. >> yeah. this is a neat and tidy one as well. i think that's the reason the street loves it, both because the cost to new york community is very manageable and complimentary in terms of the asset mix and deposit base, as you said. also valuation wise. i think people are on board with this idea, even right now it's trading around tangible book value of new york community, at least year-end. the dividend seems safe a cording to d.a. davidson. there's no real call here on whether overall credit conditions are going to be much better, whether new york commercial real estate, which there's still a lot of exposure, is going to be insulated from the pressure. it's more the math of thi

three day rate of change on the kbw stock index is down 12%. the only times i could find when i looked back at that going back a few cycles is 1998, 2002, 2008, 2011, august of 2015 and 2020. clearly, the banking system is telling us that there is some kind of issue here. i would say that money has been shut down. real liquidity is measured by m2 money supply. the first time in its history that i could find in the data i could find on bloomberg, the first time it has had negative year-over-year movement. granted, we had an incredible amount of liquidity coming out of the pandemic. people spent that. that is the inflation on a higher growth start we have already seen. when you have already spent it, you cannot say, we are offsetting the pandemic liquidity because it is gone. you need no -- new money. the answer is nothing i can see here is creating new money. we have been in this for over a year. i have been in this situation for over a year. that is not the time to go running for the hills. it is time to think about what you want to buy when yo

we saw that big rebound in the kbw index. first republic still under pressure. we have seen other regional lenders gain ground. >> that is right. we saw the bloomberg dollar index down at his lowest level in and around the month. we are seeing currencies in this part of the world. the kiwi dollar a particular focus because we also had trade data coming through and we saw the deaths of it narrowing in the month of february 2 .7 billion kiwi dollar's. stronger exports coming into china and japan on the air. we are seeing that really being reflected in the further risk on tone in the market. the quibi is looking a little different. we do have equities as well looking to follow the wall street lead for the most part. using one of the standouts. already online. a little bit weaker. 30,000 seems to be the next line in the sense of the advocates. the question is how long will this be lasting here? when you have banking turmoil, still ongoing economic uncertainty, mortgage as well. it really does is the best in markets as well. >> we continue to see uncertainty when it

the kbw bank index is down. first republic was down 50% and it has paired those losses significantly. the real drama is in the bond market. the two year yield is down .25 we are now down 50 basis points in two days. you have to ask yourself why? who was buying? is this a positioning story? and that's rippling to europe. for those of us who were around 15 years ago, this move has a lot of heads scratching. guy: that's making me feel old. the question of the day relates to the banking sector. rates are going up quickly and the rate of change is important. our rate hikes creating financial instability? what we are seeing in silicon valley a pre-shot to the rest of the financial sector? let's kick this around a little bit. how the market is set up and where the risks lie. our bloomberg rome bureau chief. i will start with you because you are in the perfect spot to think about what is happening here. back in 2008 during the european financial crisis the link between government bond yields and banks was a real problem

if your looking at the kbw banking index, you can see it is off the bottom. we heard that first citizens have emerged as the leader to take over in this deal and now we are told it is in completion. the big relief again has to do with first citizens buying silicon valley bank. it also involves purchasing $72 billion in loans. the fdic estimated the cost of svb's failure would be $20 billion. they may well profit in this takeover. haidi: also seeing treasuries retreat as a result. >> yes, treasury yields coming off the lows due to big moves in the two-year. it is important to note that many of the big fat heads. and we did hear from the fed chair governor over the weekend. normally a hawk, but warning about how the weakness in the financial system had perhaps raised the possibility of recession and that has raised concern the market in general. that while there was relief here in this latest move, there is still uncertainty if not significant headwinds in the financial market ahead. haidi: su keenan there with the latest. we are sharing that ftse has launched

tom: really appreciate your insights ahead of european banks research at kbw. we continue our coverage of the market and of the svb fallout. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪ go. go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big. or go home. from software that delivers new cures at warp speed, to technology that makes clean energy reliable, emerson innovation helps make the world healthier, safer, smarter and more sustainable. go boldly. emerson. fallen in love with a portable blender. blendjet 2 gives you ice-crushing, big blender power on-the-go. so you can throw in your favorite ingredients and blend up a delicious smoothie anytime, anywhere. blendjet 2 even cleans itself. just add water, a drop of soap, recharge quickly with any usb port. ready to fall in love? order yours now on blendjet.com >> i think they will handle us in a rational and orderly manner. from the fed's point of view there are additional dangers need to be re

in the regional bank space and smaller banks will have opportunities with the kbw index is trading sevenly. we agree in the near term, you have to work through the complication and economic back drop. >> the banking story is just getting started. ed smith and devin ryan, thank you. >>> coming upon (woman 1) i just switched to verizon business unlimited. it's just right for my little business. unlimited premium data. unlimited hotspot data. (woman 2) you know it's from the most reliable 5g network in america? (vo) when it comes to your business, not all bars are created equal. so switch to verizon business unlimited today. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we are open for business. that is the message out of china this weekend. this happening at the event attracting big name ceos. we have eunice yoon with more from beijing. >> reporter: good morning, frank. xi jinping's chief of staff with a letter to assure the audience of corporate leaders saying they are open to business. qualcomm and pfizer and p&g and others express support for china's development. pfizer said the company was

the kbw index closed 2% lower on the news and financials was the only sector to close in the red yesterday. >>> fed officials neel kashkari and susan collins indicated the u.s. central bank could stick to the hiking path as inflation is above 2% collins and barkin said the turmoil in the banking sector is expected to lead to a tighter lending environment. it could help the fed with prices faster than expected. collins said it may be too soon to weigh the impact of the policy measures. >> the recent data shows signs of more underlining strength in the economy certainly than i anticipated and unemployment rate is at historic lows and spending indicators through september that were stronger than expected. this strength might reflect the fact the policy did not enter restrictive territory until the second half in 2022. it may simply be too soon to see the full effects of real activity >> i'm taking you to overtight data >>> chinese factory data growth above expectations the manufacturing significant focuses on construction hit a 12-year high >>> coming up on "street signs," we will speak to th

the kbw bank index down 3%. regional banking index down even more.of this has to do with s&p financials not great. jp morgan also down 2%. silvergate is down more than 30% today. this is an incredible chart. i guess what goes up must come down. silvergate going out of business. guy: thank you very much, abigail. we will talk more about this in a moment. let's talk about what is happening with bank of america, one of the few wall street banks to avoid big job cuts in recent months. brian moynihan spoke to francine lacqua earlier about what is happening with the u.s. labor market. >> that makes the fed's job tougher and that is the dialogue about how you slow down, but it all comes back to unemployment. wage increases are still pretty strong. we will see what happens with on appointment this week. you tweak it is hovering at a level that is low, some seasonality debate, but still very low if you thought you were in a recessionary environment. >> what has the market reaction been like? >> when rates went up, last year was not a good year for equities ar

the kbw bank index is off 1%. morgan stanley down 4%.n financial making a bid for assets which is getting a pop. in first republic, down .4%. will you be having to work on the weekend? hermann: i'll be on the terminal to see what happens. svb should have some kind of resolution. the fdic should have some sort of announcement in the commercial bank with some of the names popping up like first citizens and customers bancorp. some fireworks perhaps? we will see. guy: what will the data tell us about the state of play within regional banks in particular? what will be learned in terms of how stressed they actually are? hermann: if you look at the data out of the federal reserve yesterday in terms of the discount window usage, the accordion program, it shows table balances which goes to show that the contagion risk has not really popped up after the big run up from the svb fallout. it seems that seems of stabilized a bit. earnings is coming out in 2-3 weeks so we will have more clarity from those reports. alix: we will get deposit outflows fro

losses set to continue after we saucer yus lo-- sauw serious los the kbw index fell 8%. these are serious moves. if i can sum it up, the question investors are asking is will other banks be forced to sell at a loss to cover deposit withdrawals. there is a look at u.s. futures. the nasdaq had turned positive, but now back in the red. all three majors pointing lower. all this in addition to the payroll report due later today plenty of action ahead that is it for "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum "worldwide exchange" is up next. has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. it's hard to run a business on your own. with shopify, you have everything you need to setup your online store, to connect with customers, and to bring your dream business to life. beca

the kbw banking index also down 4.7%. first republic is down 90% this month. coinbase after the wells notice that the exchange received meaning there is a potential to sue, the stock was down after hours. the ceo did say they welcomed the ability to tackle this in a legal manner. annabelle: checking also bitcoin how that is trading. it is under a little bit of pressure. we had seen it benefiting from the turmoil in the market but that is going to be the big driver of stocks in asia today. we are looking lower in futures. kiwi stocks trading down half percent. janet yellen commented they are not going to be protecting all depositors today and that has impacted sentiment. jay powell said he doesn't see cuts this year. bond traders don't quite believe him because we saw treasuries rallying. the dollar is around a five week low and we are seeing currencies steady in the early moments of trading. it is deftly want to be watching. -- one to be watching. vonnie: we continue to watch signaling from the fed. it was a delivery of the commitment to cool inflation. 25 bas

kbw bank index up to percent. is the worst over, you are not sure.seems stabilization after everyone got a weekend. two year yield back to selling. up 15 basis points. maybe we will get up about 4%. friday pce data, income and wages. after we get this banking testimony in terms of oversight we can see where we are going to go momentum wise. guy: you mentioned what is happening with binance. binance and cz sued by the cftc over regulatory violations. this is what was flashing on the bloomberg in front of me. the watchdog filing as a suit against the biggest crypto exchange. it does seem as if cz is being named as a defendant. we will get more on this story as we get more details. that is the impact we are seeing on the market now. i have to say. over this weekend, into today, the story in a europe is very much one of protests. today in germany, we have got significant numbers of strikes. it is tough to get a flight in germany today. it is tough to get a train in germany today. tomorrow in france, more strikes coming through and hitting that country. i

looking at kbw, the etf. worse quarter since march of 2020 in terms of how much it has gotten hit.hat do you do with banks? they are obviously going to have some serious profitability problems. how do you get constructive and equities if banks aren't a part of it? how do you trade up? >> as you know, banks are the first group to report in quarterly earnings. that will pick up in earnest the second week in april. i don't think you try to trade them ahead of that. there was a big bounce off the fear mongering that happened earlier in the month because it was sort of crisis averted. we had this big scare, assuming it may be contagious across the whole system. it turned out not to be yet. then we had a big bounce off that drawdown. because earnings are going to come out and we are going to hear from all of these banks within the same five days or so, i think it is really important for investors to listen to the narrative, listen to what ceos are saying. it is less about the actual results than what they are going to say about the future. all of this has tightened lending standards. i t

the kbw bank index is also softer. they have a diversity of names that trades within it.erg. ♪ caroline: welcome back, i'm caroline hyde in new york. ed: ed ludlow in san francisco. how could the svb collapse and lender concerns unravel fintech? yesterday you ib'd me. you are looking at the funding environment now as a result of what is happening. what is your conclusion? >> the first part, i'm kind of surprise that people are talking about contagion and the banking sector and how invisible the values concerns are at the moment. i was amazed until sunday evening. we were waiting and watching what it does. svb leaves a huge hole. 65,000 startups. sunday we heard about deposits being taken care of. what about credit? i don't think that people appreciate what a big gap this is and how few alternatives the valley has. ed: you are covering fintech in san francisco but you spent a lot of time looking at banks and i'm trying to get the readthrough svb to credit suisse. what do you make of it all? diksha: it hit closer to home for me. i was at lehman when the bank went under and

caroline: you saw that really show now through the kbw bank index performance today. thank you, sonali basak, for all things weaving together what is happening with the likes of sbb --sonali: and also silver gate. i want to give silver gate and crypto more withdrawn will. john, we turn to your expertise because you have announcements. you are still building in a space. ultimately you are currently a man trying to digitize the entire, ultimately, trying to digitize the world's assets for traditional finance for asset managers. how hard is that when we see silver gate having to unwind? john: it will be harder when all intermediaries, seemingly all intermediaries and on ramps for institutions and individuals in the crypto ecosystem are one by one getting removed. either the regulation -- through regulation, bad actors, risk management, or bad fundamentals, like in the silver gate case. it's not easy. it makes it harder. but you continue to build and get partnerships. ed: you are operating in an ecosystem and industry that still wants to build access to capital and bankin

. >>> following on from what we saw from the kbw index, we have to keep a close eye on the banks. if you are watching, we have to say good-bye to "squawk box." for viewers in the united for viewers in the united states, we hand you over to my name is ashley cortez and i'm the founder of the stay beautiful foundation when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out each person's name on a label and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month it takes less than 5 minutes for me to get all of my labels and get beauty in the hands of women who are battling cancer so much quicker shipstation the #1 choice of online sellers go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you have everything you need to sell online and in person. you can have your inventory, payments, and customers in sync across all the places you sell. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions to finding success on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today. ev

kbw bank gaining 3%. first republic halted trading because of volatility. after the s&p global ratings agency put the company in watch negative. we have a moody's cutting the outlook for the whole u.s. banking sector. we saw the gangs in first republic and -- and first republic saw the first rise. haidi: we're watching tech stocks as we get the breaking story from tiktok. tiktok leadership is talking about the possibility of divesting tiktok from bytedance to address these concerns about national security risk concerns. tiktok is undergoing a security review, they agreed to that last year to implement a number of measures to address the security concerns from u.s. officials. if we're looking at this div esting which could take the form of a public offering, it's considered a last resort, only if the company's existing proposal does not get approved by national security officials. this is according to people familiar with the matter. you would have to get the chinese government to agree. we know that this national security review is ongoing. tiktok is also u

kbw says you can forget about a soft landing we're already seeing some defaults powell saying yesterday the fed is keeping an eye on the exposure across the banking sector, but my next guest highlights some of the things the banks have -- jake, thanks for joining us >> thank you very much >> so the important thing here, what happen it is the shoe drops? if values go down the way you expect, are these losses priced in >> well, we were going to title our report "assuming we survive," but in all seriousness, the crux of what we publish, we expect the downturn to unfold in commercial real estate we expect a 30% plus decline in office value, and to your question, we think that is a 30% to 50% into the correction we believe that's worse than the consensus. >> so you think we're showing some of the names, bank of maren, bank of the ozarks. they could have 12 to 22% of exposure the fed says they're keeping an eye on this, but could commercial real estate be what residential was last cycle >> we think there will be a meaningful correction in commercial real estate, 1% to 3% low losses, impact to

we saw the biggest decline, the worst day since the start of the pandemic for the kbw index, the regional index, the biggest intraday fall when it comes to some -- some levels we have not seen since march of 2020. these two regional banks, really taking a hit because of concerns of contagion in the markets. >> that just shows how vulnerable those small and midsize banks have become to fed policy. the fallout from svb, answering one of the biggest questions on wall street perhaps, when was something going to be breaking here from this tighter fed policy? perhaps the answer has come. bets are really building that the fed will be forced to rethink its path ahead, the recalibration around the rates, not just hitting the to your treasuries, but really shockwaves -- to your treasuries, but really shockwaves with the german two-year. shifting around the outlook for a hawkish ecb. the equivalent in the u.k., the two-year yield down the most since the early 1990's. seeing a huge pullback in the aussie three year yield and two-year yield. if you change on, nomura saying we could see a cut at the ma

regard to what the fed is doing there are cracks that will continue to resurface, and if you look at the kbw index on banking, it's at the lowest level since the end of 2020. if you look at an etf, look at kre, which may be the tail wagging the dog, fueling some of these negative stock returns with regard to some of the big banks. if you look at 2s and 10s for the week, you can see the white line rose higher even though two-year note yields were more aggressive, and when the spread was right on that chart, you were looking at major inversions, both are on top of each other right now, down 25 on the day. down 24 on the week on the two-year on the ten-year, down 26 on the week boons and yielding each down 21 on the week. it's an international, global move if we look at 2s to 10s and i referenced, that chart looks hike a giant smile, because it reversed a lot of what it inverted as two-year notes were part of this flight to safety. finally, fed fund futures. it's moved up a month from october to september, as the market rallied and smiled. that looks a lot like the last chart, doesn't it? we ha

the banks, kbw bank index down a present and the regional banking index down closer to 20%.on of the day, is there a crisis in banking, it seems pretty isolated at this point if this diversions continues. it seems pretty isolated. guy: it's interesting, regional banks started track a little bit higher. ups tracking higher as well. maybe they did get a good deal. thank you very much indeed. abigail perfectly brings us back to our question of the day. do we still have a banking crisis this monday morning? a senior research analyst has a neutral rating on net republic. let's talk about where we are this morning. do we have a banking crisis this morning, or do we have a problem with one bank? >> i think what we are seeing is more problems than just a handful of banks. the banks had more concentrated deposit bases than what you find at your local community bank other regionals and have a lot more regional deposits or business focused and have a much broader deposit base than what you might've seen at first republic? alix: why can't first republic stabilize? andrew: there are ques

guy: andy stimson, kbw head of banks research. thank you for joining us.g up, a look at the broader market reaction to the ubs credit suisse deal. this is bloomberg. ♪ get help reaching your goals with j.p. morgan wealth plan, a new tool in the chase mobile® app. use it to set and track your goals, big and small... and see how changes you make today... could help put them within reach. from your first big move to retiring poolside and the other goals along the way wealth plan can help get you there. j.p. morgan wealth management. go. go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big. or go home. from software that delivers new cures at warp speed, to technology that makes clean energy reliable, emerson innovation helps make the world healthier, safer, smarter and more sustainable. go boldly. emerson. >> we have a self-induced crisis by irresponsible, physical monetary policy this last decade. i did not forecast the silicon va

but lots of eyes focused on the banking index in japan and when you overlay that with the kbw you can he that they moved right in sync. as a matter of fact, you could even argue that the japanese market was a little more aggressive on the downturn but what's very interesting here, tyler, is if you go back to 1989 when their stock market peaked you can clearly see the current event at least in japanese terms just gets dwarfed by some of the volatility from 89 over the next several years finally, this is a three-day chart of 2s versus 10s it's moved 21 basis points which means 2s are gaining on the comeback over 10s. that will figure prominently in the fed's decision, especially considering it's next week remember, 443's where it closed last year. my call they may do a quarter but it's got to be over that yield and higher in yield than it closed last year. back to you. >> thank you very much energy stocks meantime rising today even as oil prices are falling 4% pippa stevens can explain all this >> oil is down all day long but then this latest leg lower came after the headlines about the

the kbw falling a i longside the regionals today.ning us this morning is bob greifeld i have to know your thoughts this morning how does the banking model evolve from this point on? >> i think what happened over the weekend is essentially the banking model was nationalized i think the federal government had three options in front of them one is to find a buyer i think that was probably option one. but you think back to what happens to jpmorgan and bear stearns in 2008, that was not likely to happen in that timeframe. second was to let the market play out i personally have three companies in financial technology that have all of their banking with svb i was living through this. all three we had arranged alternative financing to get them through the payroll cycle it was also forcing us to think about which of the companies we really believe in over the long-term. didn't choose that option. third option was to take the easy option, backstop everything and i think in the moment that feels very good. over a longer period of time we have t

. >> well, let's talk more about it let's bring in ryan krueger, a life insurance analyst at kbw, a steepleany. ryan, great to have you. is this a danger for the sector? >> thank you, sarah. as a direct impact is pretty limited, but there could be some knock-on effects over time, particularly around credit, as contessa mentioned in terms of the direct impact, it's really isolated to bond ownership of the troubled banks, but that only equals 0.3% of equity for public life insurers and no company is greater than 1% liquidity risk is a critical difference between banks and line insurers. most like insurance liabilities are long in duration, many of the liabilities cannot be surrendered or have protections like surrender penalties and lastly, life insurers are liability-driven investors, and they own assets specifically to match the duration of their liabilities. >> ryan, hang on, if you would, because we want to get to breaking news that we are just getting in on former president donald trump, amon jaifers with the details. >> go sources familiar with the situation tell nbc news that trump's a

of course a small matter kbw definitive on banking. was to banks and we are beyond. lisa: there are a lot of questions and that is the weakness in the economy is the most important point. disproportionate lending from these regional banks and the question around if people do withdraw assets from them the consequences for the economy are greater although i do wonder with a kuester to see some of these banks offer higher rates again to lure in some of those deposit bases. if they get past it do we get some stability. tom: i think what is underreported here and i mentioned fidelity this morning as i'm old enough, i actually remember the shock of what some money market fund? i'm still living with those things over there away from the land of kbw and the rest of them. money market fund has changed everything as we all felt decades ago. lisa: you mean because we have to care what they invest in? tom: it's a 5% yield. jamie dimon is not giving me 5%. lisa: if the fed keeps hiking rates, how much is that retching up the tensions? tom: you shou

i am watching the kbw bank index. do we see a reprieve? ongoing research -- concerns about first republic and pac -west with 25% of their deposits withdrawn. how do we stave that off especially if janet yellen is giving contradictory messages? jonathan: you know what we have learned, people thought that the ecb had delivered the playbook and that is not the one he reached for. credit squeeze is not 8 -- credit suisse is not a substitute for rate hikes. you mentioned this a little bit heard earlier, this opens the door for what to expect from the ecb and what the fed should deliver. lisa: there are a lot of questions but that is a big theme that is a pivot point. jonathan: joining us the chief investment strategist at oppenheimer, thank you. i mentioned this to you, we will talk about this. if the fed backs away but -- because things are breaking, are you telling me that that is bullish? >> that is not a bad thing. and i think that the market really responded to chair powell and i think that was all really knew -- doing cry -- quite well an

the kbw inc. plunging on concerns about rising rates and their impact on those banking stocks. kiwi stocks also declining for a third consecutive session and are very much watching nikkei futures. f(jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after i started taking release, the weight just started falling off. since starting golo and taking release, i've gone from a size 12 to a 4. before golo, i was hungry all the time and constantly thinking about food. after taking release, that stopped. with release, i didn't feel that hunger that comes with dieti

the kbw bank index tells the whole story. at 3:00 p.m., a little spike higher. it was going to be rebound after janet yellen changed her tone on protecting u.s. bank depositors. she added a line and told congress that regulars are ready to take further steps if needed. if she needs to add that in, what might that actually mean? let's ask somebody who may know more, kathleen is here. very big difference from yesterday. kathleen: what a difference a day makes for a sentence. because janet yellen had gone before the senate to talk about what they have done, what they're going to do. he what people focused in on was she said that the steps have been taken to keep american depositors safe. faang stocks got hit, this was right after the fed decision. an hour later, it confused markets and created a lot of volatility. so today, she made a stronger statement about being ready to help depositors more. >> the strong actions we have taken ensure that americans deposits are safe. certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted. kathleen: of course, s

. >>> absolutely, kbw ceo thomas michaud. is this liquidity crunch for

. >> so would you -- woól■ you buy the s&p or would you juste1 avo the bank, the kbw?here is a real opportunity inç automation, and things like this to continue to replace higher labor costs with automation and ai and ml and i think it is very selective in the growth area, growth stocks for the last two years have taken itçó on the ch because of higher rates. many went down 30 to 50% over the last two years. of course, iti] takes a low pe go down to 100 overnight. but the hiddeni] growth stocksç made valuation feasible and some secular tailwinds but it has to be caveated with, you know, the idea that everyoneok knows everything and these are one offs is incorrect. and policy and choices they make here are very, very importantoko this year and beyond. >> noah, we can fight inflation, but we can also handle the stability, it might be more linked than people think. thanks. >> thanks. quarterly results and the state of the consumer and çómore. check out the winner and losers in the s the eagle has landed. that's one small step for man... hey, what's up? uh... houston... we

jonathan: kbw has cut ubs and they say considerable uncertainty around earnings trajectory. this is from bank of america saying the logic that was called impeccable and the cost energies could be substantial. that is the constructive view. lisa: a lot of people are saying this is going to be a very positive thing and a good deal for ubs now they have a backstop in a number of guarantees from the swiss government. there is a question about ubs's liable stream of crumb -- of income. jonathan: there is so much we don't know about the situation currently. in the equity market on the s&p 500, equity futures just slightly negative, down .2%. in the bond market, we have been saying this market is screaming to the federal reserve. the two year yield down 10 basis points. lisa: a different kind of look ahead this morning as what we are looking at is central banker's response to what is going on in the markets and to risk appetite as well as what is going on with the banking sector. christine lagarde will speak to both of those issues. what is she saying now? does she feel confident a

of volume in the wake of its broker takeover of embattled competitor credit suisse, analysts over at kbwhings unknowns around capital requirements and litigation risks analysts at bank of america upgrade the stock to a buy saying the logic of the acquisition is powerful and cost synergies could be substantial check out shares of meta platforms. the social media jigiant gettin help by analysts at edward jones saying it's making meaningful and notable reductions in expenses and addresses concerns about heavier spending on metaverse. pe pe pep pepsi co. shares up fractionally a market perform over at bernstein, a bit of a mea culpa by analysts who say they were wrong and that the momentum for growth in key brands and beveragb beverages could continue keep it right here, "squawk box" comes back after this quick break. thing. it really is something. as an expedia member, you can save up to 30% when you add a hotel to your flight. so you can have a bit more money, to do even less. because you've got a whole lot of nothing to do and absolutely nowhere to be. new projects means new project manag

the kbw nasdaq index biggest decline in three years if you check out the losses for banking names, looklls fargo for the week is down 13%. pnc is down 10%. bank of america down 11% just over that lots of other places we have seen larry mcdonald is the founder of the bear trap report larry, i don't want to spark additional concern, more than is necessary. this may be the case where people are selling now and asking questions later i think what is probably happening here is people are looking to hold to maturity situations you have assets particularly in bonds and say you will not mark them down. you don't have to with accounting rules bond prices are under such pressure this year and if you hold to maturity, it is not a problem. if borrowers force you to cash in on those things earlier because they want their money back, it is a problem. it is a problem for svb. is it an issue for bigger banks, too? >> you are doing a great job of giving important color on the situation. i have been listening this morning. the larger banking systems, xls, those have above 15.5 trillion of assets. kre is