let's talk much more about this with keith lerner at truist advisory services. happy new year. to see you. >> great to see you. >>> again, we're seeing the futures under pressure as we see bond yielding rise. give us a sense. what is your w.e.x. word of the day? >> the w.e.x. word of the day is "overboard." the market as we all know has a big move toward the end of last year, the s&p up. small cap's up 25%. we saw yields come down. yields you're seeing today is going back with the 4% leather. i will say, overboard, is not necessarily a bad thick. there's a momentum indicator called the rsi, and it reached above 80 for the 15th time since 1980. but when we look back historically a year later, the market's up 13 out of 15 times, so that's a pretty good hit ratio. we tend to give some of that back. >> speaking of giving back, we had a banner year on the markets in 2023. now we are officially in 2024. this first week, do you think some of the things we're seeing is this simply price taking or is this some concerns about the strength of the economy and the strength of the earnings o

let's bring in keith lerner now. keith, welcome, good to see what him. >> great to be with you. >> cheryl mentions, you heard at the outset, but she's a bit concerned that valuations of gotten stretched. what about you? >> well, no doubt valuations have come up and expectations of come up, but our view is the path of least resistance, at least looking at the next 6 to 12 months, it's still higher. you think about the fourth quarter, that strong momentum we saw on the fourth quarter, that tends to be a positive when you look out. when we came in this year, we were extended and consolidated. during that consolidation we saw during the first two weeks of the year, minimal selling pressure, credit markets were well behaved. then as we broke to a new height, we just had a study that we published on friday, and we looked at what happens when you make a record high for the first time in more than a year. a year later, you are up 13 out of 14 times. to be fair, the one big outlier in that study was 2007. so this is also predi