kelsey berro, matthew hornbach, jim bianco still with me.t, how important is another data point that is the u.s. payrolls? matthew: it is very important. i think it is probably the make or break between 75 and 50 personally. obviously the cpi report is also important, but the reality is the underlying strength of the economy shows up in the payrolls numbers and if the payrolls number and strong again, what that is telling the fed is they've got to really worry about underlying inflationary pressures through the filler curve framework and that is something i think will resonate with them and could very well make the difference between 50 and 75 in the market i as well. taylor: are you looking at the payrolls as the difference between 75 -- 50 or 75 in september? jim: i agree with matt. it is a bad news is good new scenario. 70 of the last -- 70 of the last 80 months, consensus was beaten. if we see the pattern of strong payrolls, the market will price in 75 right away. that is the bad news -- good news would be bad news for risk markets. so t

kelsey berro of jp morgan.his conversation of how far along we will be, that is the big debate for 2023. tom: the debate on what they are doing in bonds a, it is about the x axis. it is a mystery. jackson homes can provide clarity, but to me, it is the duration of where rates are as much is the level of rates. it is good to see people thinking about that. jonathan: deutsche bank did stuff on that. last three fed cycles, seven months, 2000, 12 months in 2006. 19, a lien listening to kelsey, it is closer to 12 months. tom: nobody is pricing that in. we've got that power game of when they cut rates. i am looking at taylor role models, which everybody things the work of john taylor is antiquated. the diversions here as kelsey mentioned are still substantial that time is the only thing that helps familiar rate that. jonathan: i cannot forecast next week. tom: next week is south of pocock one park, not quite to toronto. it is down from -- jonathan: are you taking time off in the fall? is that what this is about? with