. >> let's bring in our next guest , kelvin tay is the regional cio at ubs global wealth management. the numbers later today could be something that underscores that the fed path toward cutting is still uncertain. kelvin: absolutely. if you look at the data coming out last weekend regarding the nonfarm payroll, the data seems to be mixed. unemployment, 3.9%. the jobs market still remains very robust generating more jobs than expected. if you look deeper into the details, some of the details are softer. wage growth at 0.1%. your december and january jobs creation numbers were revised downwards significantly. the pap is not smooth but we still think a june cut is in the books where the fed is concerned. >> on that point of the numbers coming in on the u.s. economy, we have had jamie dimon saying u.s. recession is not off the table. is that something you would agree or disagree with? kelvin: i think we think the chances of a u.s. recession this year are slim. given other aspects of the u.s. economy remained robust and resilient. look at the gdp growth in the first quarter of this year. l