[applause] let's now shift the geographic focus to the persian gulf with ken pollack. >> thank you very much. i'm going to give my top backwards today. i'm not going to speak back words. some day if i could pull that off, you will all be invited. i was taught you should start with your interests, and then the threats to the interests, then lay out different policy options to address the threats to security interests. then choose the best policy option and make a recommendation. i will start in reverse order. i will lay out the options. talk about which best. then return to the threats and interest. unfortunately, when you are talking about iran, the options all stink. there are no good options on iran. the only things we are arguing about these days its which is worst, and which is least bad. when you deal with a bunch of really bad options, there's a tendency to push the thinker and argue were towards inertia. you want to walk away. maybe focus on an easier problem to solve, like north korea. that is not a very good option for talking about iran. the potential downside, threats to our