michael and james, this is an extraordinary chart, and something that was signaled by not only ken rogoffis has been chronic, right? michael: it has been chronic for the last year and a half or so. we have seen profit in the s&p 500 companies, and now we are seeing a broader one. business investment has been really slow. the april minutes of the fed show that. why here?is the is there no technological process? -- is there no technological progress? james: it is actually much simpler. if you look at last year's investment, category by category, it is mining, railroads. tom: james sweeney, you're saying that michael mckee's chart, going to the light -- going to the right corner, is because of hydrocarbons. james: pretty much. this is mostly the global ,ectoral shock passing through hitting a few sectors in the u.s. james, where do you -- they are ready to height. what is the one thing that will make them not hike this year? is something that you see as ugly out there? james: there is more than one. there is china risk, there is u.s. datad i think are not necessarily on a smooth have the une