ken rogoff, in massachusetts, welcome to hardtalk.- ken rogoff, in massachusetts, welcome to hardtalku. at several points _ welcome to hardtalk. thank you. at several points over _ welcome to hardtalk. thank you. at several points over the - welcome to hardtalk. thank you. at several points over the last - at several points over the last year, you have described what has happened to the global economy as a result of the pandemic as an unfolding catastrophe. given what we see today, do you think you were a little bit too pessimistic? well, indeed, particularly the vaccines have been able to come out faster and have been more effective than all the public health experts were telling me, telling us. so, that has really been what is turned things around more than anything. no, i had not predicted it but it is not good enough, but better what we hoped. the is not good enough, but better what we hoped.— is not good enough, but better what we hoped. the imf has 'ust issued its latest i what we hoped. the imf has 'ust issued its latest up i what we hoped. the imf has 'ust issued its latest up

tom: can rogoff --ken rogoff, james dimon wrote a 66 page letter this week.wo quarters of boom. there's a question of how we come out of a boom, the runway. do we drop off sharply? ease out of it? mr. dimon very optimistic about an extended good gdp in america. what is the academic history of how we come off a boom economy or are we flying blind? ken: we are, to some extent, flying blind here. this pandemic is quite different than the financial crisis. people who say they are almost exactly the same thing, that is just crazy. we do not know what is next. if i go back to my intellectual grandfather, robert mundell, has student grow a great book 20 years ago with sebastian edwards of ucla. the theme of it is that populism actually works great for a while. their timeline was sort of two to four years, you get a boom, but then you get problems at the end of the boom. will there be inflation? will something go wrong? larry summers raised the point. i don't think it's an immediate problem. if at some point you run the war economy and don't stop, it will be a proble

we have to end there, ken rogoff. thank you forjoining me on hardtalk. rogoff.been called, particularly with snow across parts of the uk, but if you do not like the cold, it is going to feel a lot better on wednesday and we will have a cold northerly wind and the arctic air has spread across the continent and parts of the mediterranean and widespread outbreak of cold arctic air. through the early hours you can see clear skies across much of the country with a few winter showers they are across parts of scotland. but later wins, clear skies, frost as well, temperatures in some cities down to around —2 with three degrees early on wednesday morning. wednesday is looking something like this. lots of bread sparkling sunshine first thing in the morning but the cloud will build to the morning and into the afternoon. the second half of the day is looking a little overcast for some of us and in the northwest of the country, later in the afternoon, towards the evening, the clouds with the can further and we are expecting some outbreaks of rain in places like belfast, glas

jacob, we had a wonderful friday with ken rogoff, richard clarida, and angus deaton talking about theury are national economic spirit when you were writing at chicago , what did you learn at columbia from mundell? jacob: to begin with, when i came to chicago, 1968, mondale was a superstar. we were students together -- mundell was a superstar. we were all hypnotized by the way he changed completely the way in which the economic profession looked at the economy. at that point the world was viewed in the textbooks as a closed economy. yes, it had some into with other countries through trade, but by and large it was a closed unit run by the policymakers of that unit. mundell said the only closed economy real is the world. each country within the world -- therefore in order to understand how the economy works, we need to develop a new approach, which is called open economy. it means you cannot conduct monetary policy under the assumption your closed unit. tom: because of time, i want to drive this forward to the modern age. your work with jp morgan and jamie dimon and the team and your wor

i think i heard some sound, you must've had my good friend ken rogoff on at some point.his is a very unusual shock. a shutdown of the global economy through a truly exalting this event -- truly exalting us -- truly exogenous event has never happened in my career. so we will be bringing sectors back online, and i'm sure there will be surprises along the way. we need to be attuned and attentive to the dataflow. and also, we welcome the 900,000 plus jobs that are gained, but there is still a hole in the labor market, and we will get a better sense over this calendar year about how rapid that progress is and how that is showing up in other indicators of the labor market. tom: vice chairman, a final question, if we could. we did speak with kim's rogoff -- with kim's rogoff -- with kenneth rogoff of harvard today. you had the privilege of not only reading mandel, but working with them at columbia university. your thoughts on what he gave to kenneth rogoff, richard clarida, and the rest of us? mr. clarida: i was very saddened when i heard the news this week. bob was a friend an