the connell told kevin cirilli that the timing -- mcconnell told kevin cirilli that the timing couldot have been better. >> the kind of races we have, montana,ona, nevada, north dakota, missouri, tennessee, west virginia, florida, i think it has been a shot of adrenaline to republican voters. hopefully, we can match the democrats in enthusiasm going into this midterm election. mark: republicans benefit from the election that has democrats defending 26 seats compared with just 9 for the republicans that leader mcconnell says he is not assuming victory because democrats need to gain just two seats to gain a majority. in florida, officials have the grim task of figuring out exactly hammy people were killed in hurricane michael. the state has officially confirmed to deaths so far, although the associated press has reported that at least 17 people died. search and rescue teams have crawled and walked through thousands of buildings in ruins in places like mexico beach, which was virtually wiped off the map when michael roared ashore last week. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on tict

i am kevin cirilli.lorida state of emergency officials say they have done a search of an area affected by hurricane michael and found no sign of widespread deaths. food and medical supplies are being brought in by trucks. state officials are using helicopters to perry in supplies to coastal towns where roads are not cleared. more than 1.5 million customers were left in the dark across states. strongests the hurricane to strike the mainland in decades. a big source of tension between turkey and the united dates has been removed. turkish court has freed american pastor andrew brunson after holding him in prison for almost two years. the court convicted brunson of collaborating with terror groups and taking part in a coup attempt. he was freed on time served. trump administration imposed sanctions and threaten more if he was not released third. -- release. pope francis has accepted the resignation of a pastor who became entangled in sexual abuse cover-up scandals. france's praised his ally and suggested the

we want to go to kevin cirilli to set the stage. kevin: president trump anticipated to make remarks within the next couple of minutes in the white house, scheduled remarks that the young african-american -- at the young african-american black leadership summit. in floridat a man has been taken into custody in sending ofwith the more than 10 suspicious packages to more than 10 prominent democrats, including two previous democrats -- presidents. reports surfaced that senator cory booker, a democrat from new jersey, among those who happen sent a package. this comes following the controversial tweet today in which the president suggested this might have an impact on the midterm elections by mobilizing democrats to get to the polls and impacting early voting. he urged his base to get to the polls. thepresident tweeting out political implication and receiving swift criticism. now, the talk turns to the investigation about what the authorities have done. this man was taken into custody in florida. the details are coming fluid. david: we hav

now we have kevin cirilli, in washington, with a key democratic lawmaker at the center of the debate. kevin: thanks, we are here with chris coons. got the deal for the one-week extension. saying it isleader wrapping up. do you have any concerns? i think that he did something significant by hitting the pause button for a weekend asking that the f the eye be allowed to pursue the credible complaints. i am concerned. a significant number of people have been trying to reach the fbi to testify and have not been able to. some of them are directly relevant. they never questioned dr. ford, for example, which surprised me. and they have not followed up on questioningez's from last weekend. i look forward to reading the report. my hope is that they have not

kevin cirilli with us. thist to bring up acclaimed harvard professor. wellat essay published as by the cato institute. president trump can't use an executive order to deny birthright citizenship to the children of undocumented parents. the key quote throughout feldman and others is "subject to the jurisdiction thereof." it goes back to an 1890 in ruling on a chinese gentleman born in san francisco. guess what? no one cares. the election. drive it forward. how does the 14th amendment debate change the marginal trump voter? kevin: this is such a plate to the base of his movement.

let's bring in kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent at the white house .e is an hour d.c. bureau actually. much will this telegraph? >> massive significance. trump officials caught off guard. thing: 30 a.m., just a couple of minutes with president trump at the white house. they are expected to make the announcement now. the new york times reporting the u.n. ambassador nikki haley will step down from her post. she is the former south carolina governor and did not endorse candidate donald trump during the contentious primary season. she was largely seen as a unifying force within the administration and significant in terms of crafting president trump us is foreign policy. closely aligned with secretary of state mike pompeo. withad her differences secretary pompeo's's predecessor and rex tillerson, and was also instrumental in terms of crafting u.s.'s israeli alliance policy as well as with the u.s. withdrawing itself from the iran nuclear disarmament deal. rankingthe most senior female official within the administration and someone on been thought in the rep

now we have kevin cirilli, in washington, with a key democratic lawmaker at the center of the debate. kevin: thanks, we are here with chris coons. got the deal for the one-week extension. saying it isleader wrapping up. do you have any concerns? i think that he did something significant by hitting the pause button for a weekend asking that the f the eye be allowed to pursue the credible complaints. i am concerned. a significant number of people have been trying to reach the fbi to testify and have not been able to. some of them are directly relevant. they never questioned dr. ford, for example, which surprised me. and they have not followed up on questioningez's from last weekend. i look forward to reading the report. my hope is that they have not yet concluded and they will be doing a few more witnesses. kevin: is it valid if she doesn't get interviewed, dr. ford? sen. coons: she did testify to the committee for several hours. there are a lot of lawyers on the committee. it's different to have us lessening as opposed to professionals from the fbi. kevin: help me out, folks outside wa

vonnie: mitch mcconnell and thanks to kevin cirilli., goldman sachs and morgan stanley close-out u.s. bank earnings with a banging. -- bang. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg markets. morgan stanley and goldman sachs reporting surprising equity strengths while backlog disappoints in this morning's round of earnings. obviously investors reacting better to one then the other. morgan stanley really losing the way at least for investment banking. >> yes. morgan stanley's numbers are really good on their investment banking side. their management side is a little weaker. people are overlooking that. up over thely years. it has been one of their strengths after the crisis. the investment banking side, their trading revenues are up on both asked income and equities which many have struggled to do. all the other banks that have reported one or the other was down for very little up. everything is good. are all positive numbers. vonnie: across the board it feels like ellen sheets a

joining us to break down the news is chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli. u for joining us. the suspects name but what can you tell us about what the government is charging her with? kevin: elena is charged with trying to get and infiltrating theu.s. midterm elections, upcoming ones in 2018 as well as the previous iteration in 2016. because thisews comes just 17 days ahead of the midterm elections. it also comes as the intelligence community has been working with state and local elections commissions and offices nationwide as well as the private sector, and twitter and google, about how to better protect u.s. voters from these actions. course comes as bob mueller's investigation is also investigating into a host of these issues. this is a separate charge from the department of justice. it is not technically related to the mueller probe. but it really comes at a time in which tech companies are facing questions about how they are communicating and working on cooperating, not just with the folksl level but the fbi, at the intelligence community but also the st

balance kevin cirilli from washington on investigating the president taxes and scheduling a vote on the judge kavanaugh nomination. from london, david merritt, hitching up support for leadership. first, kevin, there's a lot going gone down there. let's talk about this remarkable story alleging that the president got money from his father and it may not have been done in the tax laws. the president's lawyer came out and called it 100 sent false and defamatory. how is it playing down there? --in: president trump play pushing back hard against it, but here inside the halls of congress democrats have really pounced on that, saying that he has not been able to make his own money, someone who did not really create his own success, but relied instead on his father . we should note that in this article they would note that it would be very unlikely for the president the president to face any type of legal action is a response to this. that said, it gets to the heart of how the president has represented his health and it is an argument that we heard a bit on the campaign trail and this report pu

we return now to kevin cirilli. tell us all we know about the investigations. do we have a sense on whether they are making progress? kevin: there is a manhunt underway for what the fbi is treating is an issue of domestic terrorism. this afternoon, there is going to be an update with new york city mayor bill de blasio as well as the new york city police commissioner. they will be speaking with an fbi official at a public briefing later this afternoon. the attorney general jeff sessions has received a briefing from the fbi and the white house is saying president trump has received briefings on this issue which is being treated as a matter of domestic homegrown terrorism. no reporting right now to suggest there was a foreign entity involved in this. the investigation is ongoing. david: you mentioned the effect on the midterms. we are only 12 days away. is this likely to have any effect one way or the other? ivin: politically speaking, don't think this would be able to factor into an issue of something that voters are going to be weighing on. i do think it is an il

let's get to bloomberg's kevin cirilli who is on capitol hill. 51 ayes to end debate on this. kevin, what else did we learn from this vote call? kevin: now there will be a vote tomorrow, a final vote. judge kavanaugh clearing his final procedural hurdle ahead of the vote tomorrow. you mentioned senator joe manchin, the centrist democrat from west virginia, who's up for re-election in a state that candidate donald trump carried by 42 percentage points. he ultimately voted to move forward to a final vote. now, i want to be clear here that he could ultimately vote against judge kavanaugh, but many folks are going to be carefully parcing these votes. republicans lost one senator, senator lisa murkowski, a centrist republican from alaska. she voted no on debate. many people will anticipate that she will be a no in terms of final passage, in terms of getting judge kavanaugh confirmed tomorrow. but senators susan collins, jeff flake, the latter of whom is retiring, both voted yes on cloture. they are the two key swing votes. republicans can only afford to lose one republican. looks li

joining us now is our chief correspondent, kevin cirilli. uck grassley came out a little while ago with a statement saying that we have learned nothing new from the fbi investigation. what kind of a turn of affairs is this? kevin: right now as we speak, republican senators are in a secure room inside the capital, reviewing this document. i spoke with ron republican senator earlier this morning -- one republican senator earlier -- this morning, who said after the review, there might be a cloture vote tomorrow. democrats will have the chance to review this separately from republicans. all of this comes down to three central republicans, senator susanurkowski, senator collins, and senator jeff flake. we do not know how they are going to vote. a cloture vote is a procedural step, a vote to have a vote. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell says that will happen tomorrow with likely a final vote sometime on saturday. i think it is important to take a broader step back, because yes, obviously these are wakeations with -- in the of the me too movem

let's bring in kevin cirilli at the white house.ith everything that is going on in washington, it seems very thisy that we do now have deal. was pressure put on negotiators to come up with something for a win? kevin: yes. the president tweeted this morning that just late last the u.s. was formalizing its deal. agriculture was a big win for the u.s.. agricultural community will be expanded. gary markets expanded. dairy markets -- expanded. largely, the top view is that this is a repackaging of have to as a whole, a renaming. in terms of the auto sector, canada and mexico getting exemptions from potential auto tariffs. this expresses itself when you look at the geopolitical landscape. when you dig deeper into the auto sector, just the percentage of auto parts that will be impacted by this is at 62.5% will haveof cars that to be made here before going to mexico and canada. boosted up to 75%. that is a win from the administration's perspective. the u.s. feels they have the upper hand on intellectual property as well. then you get into s

kevin cirilli is in washington. see some of response from secretary mnuchin and sergei pompeo and the president? kevin: i would. the speech is demanding some type of white house response. it comes at a time in which there are questions in which we will takeaction against saudi individuals. he president has said that has been at odds with the senators with regards to whether that would be specific targeting with sanctions against those in saudi arabia. i was on a conference call with senator rand paul, who essentially said and really speaking out against the saudi crown prince. i would anticipate that type of rhetoric from republicans will continue. francine: what will president trump do? will he continued to support the crown prince or be more mutant? kevin: if you look at the comments from the white house and senate, there will be some type of action. how severe remains to be seen. reportingt to show for the new york times and not necessarily an op-ed, but it is an op-ed from the senator from vermont. sanders -- i

cirilli whoin kevin is live from the white house.ohn cornyn has said he will not vote on this until the fbi investigation is complete in spite of mitch mcconnell weighing there will be about this week. where do we stand? boththink it could happen ways. there could be a vote this week and the investigation could be completed. senator jeff flake and chris way areo by the appearing together multiple public forums including one today across town in washington have said that they had agreed withone-week commitment each other to have the fbi investigated. the fbi will when the investigation. democrats are raising the issue that this might take longer than one week. are saying this has to be limited in scope. we saw that at the white house from president trump and self. the bottom line, we are in a holding period. senate majority leader has consistently said that likely as soon as the fbi investigation is completed there's going to be a vote. vonnie: is anybody in d.c. talking about potential substitute names? >> president trump has said he

and kevin cirilli on the president and immigration.oomberg. ♪ tom: this morning, markets recover. where the afternoon in new york with a 900 point swing. all eyes on the renminbi weakening. deploysas president troops to man the mexican border. risknsider fear and october 2018 style. in this hour, philip held brent and blackrock. this is "bloomberg surveillance." is tom keene paired with me nejra cehic . the president in a conversation with axial's making it clear he will vote after the fourth amendment and the birthright for children born in america of undocumented aliens and a few other definitions. i will tell you, this will be the discussion over the next seven days to the election. nejra: it is extraordinary. the question for me is whether the president has the power to do what he says he will do, something we will discuss. busy in europe as well. we are talking about the fallout of angela merkel saying she will step down for the -- from the leadership of the party and what it means for the economic boom. european data out this mor

francine: thank you so much, kevin cirilli.r of bernstein stay with us. research operations and she will be asked about midterms at 10:00 a.m. in new york and 3:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: the message in budapest. president are one of turkey. extraordinary headlines. he takes the eu to task. they have not lived up to the pledge for refugees. turkish banks resilient. to be kind, others would disagree. is note: the president only speaking to an international audience, but his base. it is trickier in these times of social media and news everywhere. politician 20 years ago, you talk to your base at home and it was domestic and it would not translated abroad. it is difficult to see how some of the speeches if they are done for the global audience or domestic to rally the troops and interpreted. on hold is with us. we're happy to bring you kathy fisher on wealth and investment strategies which is his polite way to say how do i stay in this market. is there still a lot of that out there? a lot of people are still scar

we want to go to kevin cirilli to set the stage. sident trump anticipated to make remarks within the next couple of minutes in the white house, scheduled remarks that the young african-american -- at the young african-american black leadership summit. in floridat a man has been taken into custody in sending ofwith the more than 10 suspicious packages to more than 10 prominent democrats, including two previous democrats -- presidents. reports surfaced that senator cory booker, a democrat from new jersey, among those who happen sent a package.

we start with kevin cirilli. the white house is surprised by nikki haley stepping down? kevin: caught off guard. thataid in the oval office she would plan to campaign for president campaign -- third president trump in the 2020 election. she also went through a series of accomplishments she is touting during her tenure in office, ranging from the issues ins area the withdrawal -- in syria, the withdrawal from the nuclear iran deal. the question is who president trump lemay messer successor. he says a decision will be made in the next two to three weeks. i spoke with republican consultants. nikki haley's political future bright. they would not rule out a potential presidential run in the 2024 election, but let's not get too hard -- too far ahead of ourselves. vid: let's go to washington and talk about president trump on his way to iowa. jenna: the president is ordering the epa to make the change to allow a higher grade of ethanol and to be more available around the united states. he is telling the epa to lift summertime restrictions. he is headed to iowa to do this iowa.cal

.> i'm shery anh >> i'm kevin cirilli. of andrew brunson , president trump's midterm push. let us start with a symbol. he was still sentenced and convicted. >> he was convicted but has been freed, time served. he is now free to return to the united states. he has been detailed on alleged links to the failed coup attempt in turkey. has caused aent political follow-up between washington and ankara. the u.s. president donald

mcconnell spoke to kevin cirilli in washington today. >> we need to find out what happened. we are deciding what kind of response is appropriate. >> you think there will be some type of response. >> i cannot imagine there will not be but we need to find out. mark: mcconnell says president trump did the right thing by sending secretary of state mike pompeo to saudi arabia to keep with king salman. the president will stop aid to honduras but a migrant caravan headed for the u.s. is not turning back. are -- as 2000 hondurans fleeing their home country, hoping to reach the border. against making the long and often dangerous trip, the u.s. provided more than 120 $790 in foreign aids -- foreign aid to honduras in 2016. in brazil, candidate best candidate will double a large 59-51uthor -- lead over advantage over the worker party candidate. the runoff election is october 28. in egypt, the government has expanded the foreign agency. officials declared a state of emergency in april 2017. that is an islamic state the killed -- bombed to coptic churches. -- two coptic churches. global

have tenants really coming to us from washington on the search for the pipe bomber -- we have kevin cirilliom washington on the search for pipe bomb -- the pipe bomber. kevin, let's start with you. yesterday we heard the president speak out and respond to the search for the bomber, saying this is a time to come together as a nation. this morning he tweeted a very big part of the anger that we see today in our society is caused by the purposely false and inaccurate reporting of the mainstream media that i referred -- referred to as the fake news. -- refer to as the fake news. kevin: president trump striking a somber tone at the white house and then strike a summer tone at his rally last night and then today, the tweet targeting what he calls the fake news media

house, kevine cirilli on his interview with mitch mcconnell.ry in going to saudi arabia? did he achieve it? bill: we are still waiting for a readout. he was there to get a full explanation on the missing journalist. what are the saudis doing and how credible is investigation? and to convey some of the rising concern in the unit it's about how this could damage the -- couldn about how this damage the u.s.-saudi relationship.

we are joined by kevin cirilli, chief washington correspondent. two weeks until the midterm elections come and i'm turning my attention to the lone star state for the politics of personality and policies are coming to a head for senator ted cruz, the republican incumbent, up against congressman beto o'rourke, arising democratic star who represents the southern portion of texas in el paso, that district. this is where the president's rhetoric on immigration is coming to a head. congressman o'rourke says he does not like all the scare tactics, as used is telling them, that president trump is using with regard to immigration and the caravan. meanwhile, you have senator ted cruz, who we all know had a very contentious relationship with candidate donald trump during the last presidential cycle, but they put their differences aside, everyone from first family member ivanka trump to the vice president campaigning on his behalf, trying to have the symbolism that they have been able to turn a new leaf. but the policy is really interesting, particularly when

thank you so let's go back to washington and kevin cirilli. the president has already tweeted about his trip to florida. tell me about this trip. kevin: the hurricane michael fallout that claimed 19 lives is really dominating the state of florida. there is also a political angle because you have governor rick scott going up against the democrat senator in the election race. you also have the gubernatorial race. the democrat there is the tallahassee mayor. you have got a different electric going on as hurricane michael has rocked its path of destruction. the president also taking criticism last week from democrats disappointed that he had met with kanye west and had a host of campaign rallies, but hadn't really cleared his schedule to deal with hurricane michael. visiting there and also tweeting about north and south carolina. there is clearly a political hurricane in 20 plus days with the midterm elections. david: what is going on on the ground? the administration has said that the president has talked several times of fema officials and they a

let's go to washington and kevin cirilli. perhaps an expanding investigation into judge kavanaugh? kevin: mark judge, the key witness from the alledge it incident of sexual misconduct has been interviewed by the fbi. this time, the republicans and democrats have press for a one-week investigation. the white house saying he does not want to stand in the way of the fbi investigation but he wants it to happen as quickly as possible. democrats saying that that should not be the case. the fbi should extend at a natural case. mitch mcconnell saying that he is committed to having a confirmation vote on judge brett kavanaugh by this week. david: thank you so much. let's go over to rome. this drama over the italian budget, the markets really responded early this morning, including to one report they may rate cut -- may consider pulling out of the euro and then backs off. alexandra: the officials backed off quickly from that one because the markets immediately went crazy. week.resented 2.4% last the markets already had not liked it that much. the spread had gone up. but today, it was very bad

joining us now is kevin cirilli.s going on today including the new york times , definitely taking the attention of president trump. in the background, it is the kavanaugh supreme court nomination taking center stage this week. mark do we stand question >> the fbi finishing an investigation going to mitch mcconnell, who is also saying senators will have the ability to review this report privately. the report will not be released publicly. the shortly after that, senate majority leader would like to see that come to a vote this week. next 2.5 days at we have seen the attacks against judge kavanaugh really increase. everyone from hillary clinton weighing in two current senators saying he does not have the temperament to sit on the supreme court. you also have republicans very much still -- defending judge kavanaugh. senator orrin hatch writing in the wall street journal today that he believes judge kavanaugh was right in his anger during his testimony to defend himself. it has really become a partisan divide but the sam

thanks to bloomberg's kevin cirilli. currently --f mr.ten to it michel barnier heads to say. outline, ae an framework and parameters of the future relationship with the united kingdom, and then, this future relationship will be fresh negotiations, several types of negotiations. 10 negotiations running in parallel that will commence in april, 2016, when the united kingdom will become a third country. negotiations on the basis of a statement in very little time. we need to conclude negotiation's the end of 2020. new relationship, the new partnership with the u.k., we are working hand-in-hand with the united kingdom on this joint political statement. that will describe the framework of the -- of our future relationship in march of last year, the heads of states of government, the head of the council, the head of the clearly clearlyion, expressed a willingness for there to be a very ambitious partnership with the u.k.. this ambition is supported by the european parliament and by its president. in these discussions with the u.k., we take accou

we start with kevin cirilli. the white house is surprised by nikki haley stepping down? off guard. thataid in the oval office she would plan to campaign for president campaign -- third president trump in the 2020 election. she also went through a series of accomplishments she is touting during her tenure in office, ranging from the issues ins area the withdrawal -- in syria, the withdrawal from

kevin cirilli joins us now with the latest from the white house.e just heard the commerce secretary saying at least, for example, in autos, the 250,000 jobs that when away will mostly come back, but they have not got the numbers done. when will we know if this brings back jobs to the united states? made 12he deal was only hours ago, the secretary of commerce wilbur ross declaring victory just after president trump doing the same. call it what you want, but don't call it nafta. the u.s. mca, trilateral deal between u.s. and mexico and canada, clearing the first major hurdle. you heard the mexico geopolitical landscape having an impact on how these negotiations have been structured. they want to see this done by december 1. let's be frank, there could be some political threat after the midterm elections. we just don't know how the lay of the land will be. that said, it is a watered-down version of. version of nafta. the president saying the dairy market issue was "dealbreaker" at that press conference. the 62.5 percentage, of the 75% of nafta made au

caroline: that is our exclusive interview with mitch mcconnell with kevin cirilli.more bad news for bada as stock sales make a year worse. we will give you all the details in asia ahead, next. ♪ caroline: now for asia ahead, netflix crushed estimates and is surging after hours. will asian tech shares follow suit? let's bring in shery ahn. , howhina related tensions will u.s. tech hit asia tech these think? shery: we are seeing more pressure on chinese tech. the analysts i talked to said this could be a huge pressure point coming not only from the u.s., but also from regulation inside of the chinese markets like tencent. earlier thisng week about regulations in online gaming and it is impacting these stocks. joe: let's disentangle further is riskuch more off sellers versus it kicking off specific regulatory action that content warned about in their last earning season when they talked about speed of approval of new gains. shery: we were talking about this this week since we get more confirmation from these companies that online gaming approvals would not come in the

tom: kevin cirilli, thank you so much.rgest shareholder moving from one person to a -- moving from 1% to 8%. he will do everything in his power to block this. he publishes an open letter of his dissent to michael dell. there are complications here. what you need to know is mr. ic ahn wants the option to be able to cash out. please stay with us. this is "bloomberg." ♪ taylor: this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm taylor riggs. let us get your business flash. it was once america positive is biggest retailer. sears has collapsed into bankruptcy. the company filed for chapter 11 with more than $10 million in debt. sears biggest shareholder, eddie lampert, stepped down immediately as ceo. sears and it's kmart stores plan to stay in business with help from more than $600 million in new loans. there is a big merger in the defense industry. harris and l3 technologies have agreed to combine to become the sixth largest defense contractor in the u.s. the company will have a market value of more than $33 billion. they are known for comm

kevin cirilli spoke with the senator on the proposal. >> earlier in the year, broadcom had a deal theying on qualcomm and the world national security interests involved. it was president said something that was against our national security interest. i see no difference in this. computer associates have a lot of their software and hardware scattered throughout our electrical rid in our power plants -- grid in our power plants. it goes to the core on is this a national security? this used to be a chinese acurity but inez -- it is united states company but does that change anything? kevin: the pentagon is saying there is a document on capitol thisin your office said document has fraudulent claims regarding the potential sale. >> i have not seen the document so i'm unaware of it. kevin: have you urged the white house for review and at what time do you think we could get on that? >> i told the secretary of homeland security we should have it. it was a one-sided exchange and that she was not reviewing whether there was already a cf sayreviewer not but we will to the entire community this wi

we will get to kevin cirilli in a moment. your first word news, here is kailey leinz.ical of the official saudi explanation for the death of jamal khashoggi. he was accidentally killed inside the consulate in istanbul. france, the u.k., and germany are not buying it. president trump said the account was marked by deception and lies but he stressed the importance of saudi-u.s. relations. president trump plans to pull out of an arms control treaty with russia because moscow has broken the agreement. the deal on intermediate range nuclear missiles was signed in 1987. nato defense ministers discussed concerns russia was developing a new missile. president trump is promising voters there will be a new middle class tax cut before the election but there is one problem. republican tax policy makers do not know anything about it. republicans had hoped last year's tax overhaul would help carry them to victory in the midterms but the policy has turned out to be less popular than they thought. theresa may will tell parliament today that 95% of the brexit withdrawal deal is complet

kevin cirilli for us in washington. tony dwyer stays with us.e interview at 10:30 a.m. in new york, 2:30 p.m. in london. what black swan's he see now? this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ tom: good morning. ," tonyerg surveillance to wire with us. this is important on volatility. .ou need to know when to buy here is the ugliness of february. then you come down. -ness of thisn good feeling. we are down with three days in a row. how do you manage that? >> when you get a spike like we have had, what you notice in february, the yellow circle, was immediate. ,hen you have high volatility it happens right away. it and come back and do it again a few weeks later. signal looking for a that the worst of the volatility is over, which we got a couple of weeks ago. .e have retested that peak you want to see the market retest the low with lower volatility. in april, when the market retest of the low, the vix was significantly lower. tom: bring up a chart right now. here is the april volatility, which did not get out to this ugliness up here. nejra: you know what i am aski

talked with our chief synthesizer of this moment, kevin cirilli.o write this? did he want to do this? the person briefing him has been tom again. the one paragraph in that op-ed that matters is when he said he realizes he might have been too emotional and he might have said ,hings during his confirmation that hearing last week, that he might not what have wish to have said. -- might not have wished to have said. would appear based on public comments, those republicans were moving toward voting for him. they praised the fbi investigation as being thorough. has been moreski difficult to read. we are anticipating a procedural hurdle at about 10:30 a.m. this morning. cabinet, youhis have got axios just publish the vote. what happens after? if he becomes a judge, what is the next step? gets confirmed saturday, he would come into the supreme court. there is a case in the next couple of weeks pertaining to women's health. the grassroots protesters you have seen on capitol hill, there were several hundred yesterday, that is going to continue. i am struck b

kevin cirilli is looking at washington.ll piece be taken in washington? it fits in the narrative they have used to attack the president. essentially the president not taking this too seriously. it potentially becomes a midterm issue and poses a smaller political risk for him and the state of new york. tom: i went through the thousands of words and tried to pick out the lines. the morning must-read. mr. trump won the presidency proclaiming himself a self-made billionaire. he helped his parents dodge taxes. it is unlikely mr. trump would be vulnerable to criminal prosecution by helping his parents evade taxes. , quiet sentence at the end "the father took care of everything." they really emphasize this is in the past and not that big of a deal, but what a distraction? definitely a distraction. you noted the correct part, unlikely to face prosecution. it doesn't measure up to the mueller probe or the kavanaugh proceedings. where are we on kavanaugh? i have 18 articles and i am being bombarded on both sides. waiting for the fbi

our kevin cirilli in washington.e united states is a master of american media. what will be the spend today? kevin: the president has not been saying what the senate has been forecasting. the release of this video, turkey has released the audio recordings in the video of the killing, and that raises questions in terms of u.s. foreign policy in the region, most notably what with this mean for the u.s.-saudi relationship and the u.s.-turkish saudionship, and so the relationship continue to trend in a negative way, what does that mean for a country like qatar and other countries in the as another middle eastern country looks to be the go to with an alliance with the u.s. tom: i look at the dust on the boots of general mattis. he has a little experience over there. is he giving advice to the president, or is there too much distance? kevin: it appears he relies on mike pompeo them and their relationship is the most important geopolitical tensions. francine: how far apart is the trump administration to congress on how to d

kevin cirilli is in washington. what does the secretary of state hope to welcome push in react? t happened. the saudi's are saying this is part of an interrogation that had gone wrong. past couple of hours have been silent in terms of the results of their own investigation. there is an international investigation. in the u.s., lawmakers calling on the administration to report back to them in some formal capacity to see what happened. the saudi's have said that if there were additional sanctions or any arms sales would be jeopardized, as they were relating torespond oil on their own. this comes at a time when you have had businesses drop out. steven mnuchin and is still committed to go. president trump told the secretary of state, get on the plane and fly to react and get to the bottom of this. a lot of people have now since dropped out of the investor conference. weomberg is a partner and have dropped out what can mike pompeo do on the ground? is the first country president trump visited when he became president. he went to saudi arabia and then he went to israel. the shifting re

tom: to kevin cirilli in washington. come on the midterm elections. we look at minnesota and pennsylvania, ohio. nate silver is pretty adamant this is over. if you look at the odds of a win in the house for the democrats, a win in the senate for that the republicans. is it over or can there be tension to the election day? i think in terms of the trend we're seeing, there is not been, as of now, a major element is the justice capital cap formation hearings that is really jolted -- confirmation capital thatustice is really jolted them. these polls are expensive. they are very nuanced. they are very hard to calculate in the sense of the house raise because they're so nuanced. the second, more broadly weaking, it really does -- semi-correct when record, but it comes out to just to exactly is going to vote. this is -- the house raise is so much more localized than the presidential cycle and even the state cycle. tom: i want to bring up a fascinating op-ed. i think his book is really interesting, whatever your politics. this ne

we will get right to a discussion with kevin cirilli and washington. guess what? y one election that matters. once again the president when after the fed. this is becoming a habit. kevin: it is. it has economist very concerned. they are worried the president is trying to juice up markets. sayingsident yesterday as aed has gone "crazy" result of these interest rate hikes. he does not like it. within the same hour, press secretary sanders saying the fundamentals of the economy are still intact and note employment is at a 48-year low. they are quite confident in terms of the direction the economy is moving. to the white house and secretary mnuchin agree with the president that the fed needs to be less independent? i don't think they have come out as forceful against the fed has has the president. you will remember when secretary mnuchin made comments about the that were criticized because they were somewhat political. he walked to them back somewhat ancome but he has not taken aggressive stance against the central bank. secretary mnuchin just met with his canadian cou

tom: joining us now, kevin cirilli.oomberg story this morning, and i have to go to the elections. we did not touch on that with the saudi outpour. i ame 20 days away, and focused on cedar rapids, iowa, the northeast corner of iowa, where a republican is fighting for his life. that is replicated across the nation, isn't that? kevin: it is. you have what is going on in iowa going on in wisconsin and the suburbs of pennsylvania. polling would suggest the basis of both parties are fired up to get to the polls, but it is the centrist-middle vote that will determine this. it is going to have the map of the house impacted because there are 30 seats in the house of representatives that could swing either way. pollsters, most political pundits suggest the republicans are going to have a hard time with the house of representatives, but it is a much different forecast in the senate. democrats are up for tough reelections. heidi had the worst yes -- the worst day yesterday in terms of her lyrical career, with the release of this ad

tom: let us bring in kevin cirilli.ador haley but i like this idea with the elections coming up of dropping in on one geography you are an expert on. we did florida yesterday. missouri is close isn't it? get so close?ri kevin: it is remarkable to watch how those polls have tightened. mccaskill is going to be ingrained in the 2018 cycle. is more nuanced because on the issue of trade and justice capital, we touched on this howerday, in particular for exactly these issues are more nuanced in these red states because there are many centrist democrats who would want to see him. tom: let me go to a beautiful essay of the many thoughts off of ambassador haley resigning. it sometimes seems as though ambassador haley's overreaching goal was to maintain credibility with the never traverse who populate the ranks of the republican foreign-policy elite. i love this phrase, that awkward synthesis. is there any appetite for a return to more traditional statecraft in the gop? does the president want a replacement in the u.n. who has th

i want to bring in kevin cirilli from the white house. that was a pretty extraordinary performance i think it is fair to say. let's break it down to where the president did. let's start with trade. kevin: president trump declaring victory on a campaign promise by saying essentially has been able to renegotiate nafta. the sources i'm talking with tells me this is largely a repackaging of nafta into the u.s. mca agreement. it is not done yet. from here, the president will have to get this ratified by congress. he even alluded to a potential political fight ahead of which should democrats take control of the house of representatives. we have been through all morning the different sticking points. dealid that it was a breaker with canada p or he was able to open markets with auto sectors. he says tariffs could be on with the steel and aluminum, but the threat of limning auto tariffs and likely exceptions for canada and mexico on that front. not many changes to the settlements. the stock market, as we heard they like what they see. david: now t

kevin cirilli in washington, counting the days until the midterm elections. it is always the issue that fires up the base for the republican party. how does immigration fire up republicans and democrats? kevin: it is about the base. president trump calculating the issue of immigration, the issue that this caravan is going to motivate republicans to get to the polls particularly in states like texas. he needs of those voters because democrats are targeting the suburban areas to rally bases to pick up the seats they need to take back control of the house. has eluded reform both republicans and democrats, predating president trump. you are starting to see this with the u.s. administration trying to use immigration to and to bolster the economy along the southern border. tom: our audience knows the cultural wars of america. let us bring up the language of for reads a courier. zacaharia. has notcratic party found a way to go on the offensive. i thought this was brilliant. whether the democrats can move right on culture. is there evidence of that? kevin: i would di

joining us is kevin cirilli, after an event for weekend. what are you focused on in terms of an election? does the enthusiasm gap nowthe republicans hold that just kavanaugh is on the bench? the president is in florida campaigning and he is going to end his stay in the white house to have a formal ceremony for justice kavanaugh. that enthusiasm and chen's evaporated for democrats. who arewith democrats fired up and believe the enthusiasm is going to bounce back to respond to republicans. state democrats, they are going to have to walk this tight rope because these are states the president carried. the nuance we are seeing with these democrat senators struggling with a trump state? having they're going to have to say theyether they can would support more investigations into justice capital, whether he should have impeachment proceedings. these are states of that are conservative and the impeachment issue is something that republicans are rallying around, the same way we saw in pennsylvania with the election of conor lamb. they are arguing th

kevin cirilli is the chief washington correspondent. will there be a vote later this week? here will be. the question is when we are in a holding. and waiting for the weeklong fbi investigation. there is not a formal ending points for that. they have begun work on the investigation and it is anticipated to be sometime midweek to the end of the week. mitch mcconnell would like to see a vote immediately. there have been reports overnight that judge kavanaugh will not be going back to harvard in january. he was expecting to be on the supreme court. we are showing holding period. is the fbi investigation widening? kevin: the president yesterday said he wanted to see this and he did not want the notion that he was limiting the investigation. democrats has raised that it was too limited. a democrat from delaware has worked across the aisle on this. the president has said he would like it to be done within the week. it is really tough. there is so much speculation in terms about the fbi doing it will no when they released the report. tom: haven't, thank you so much. cavan, much goi

is our chiefdh washington correspondent kevin cirilli.le in the oval office yesterday. how would the united states listen to the crown prince? >> president trump says there has to be more action taken. going intohin meetings with the kingdom of saudi arabia. republicans are increasing the rhetoric, suggesting there might -- sanctions imposed on key individuals and saudi arabia. the question from the international community's becomes what the kingdom is doing to prevent this from happening again. francine, why don't you come in on saudi arabia? francine: kevin, what could congress do? there are arms deals. the president seems to have backed from initial claims that we can't touch that, but how do you see this developing? act, this issky something the russians can't stand. does iss magnitsky act allow the u.s. government to go after specific individuals and not just the country as a whole, so a much more tailored saying short -- tailored sanction response to get folks responsible for this killing. when i interviewed senator paul a couple of