stuart: i was watching kevin hassett earlier this morning.his is not a trade worth this is all about drugs, fentanyl and all about drugs, respond to t that. >> that's not what president trump said, kevin hassett is a very good friend i love hearing that that's what it is let's get better support to stop fentanyl and let's not make it a trade war. if we do 25% tears across-the-board they retaliate it's 150 billion-dollar cost to the economy. it becomes a trade war, if cavett is right i hope he is is being done to get support with drug trafficking then maybe we get a quick indeed but it doesn't look like that's the way it's heading. >> it's gone so far even though the tariffs have not been imposed and counter tariffs, it's hard to see the sun winding in the short term. >> people are saying different things to the president kevin hassett is talking one way but stephen miller and pete navarro are saying let's do as a trade war, nothing will happen. and who's going to win the argument. stuart: in early days can you predict any winner in the market

look at what kevin hassett said this morning. this is a drug war, not a trade war.ard lutnick specifically referred to this as bargaining chip and at expense of some short term pain, trump will continue to use this tactic but most countries as evidenced by what's happening in mexico this morning will concede something and trump in turn will declare victory and our base case, stu, is that tariffs will only partially be implemented at best and probably prove to be temporary. stuart: this is a rosie scenario. if you can just fix the tax and figure out the tariff situation, you can move onto extending trump's tax cuts. then move onto doing something about interest rates because as a clash between jay powell and federal -- and president trump. this is a fairy rosie outlook right now. would you agree with that? >> from steve forbes' mouth to actor's ears. look, there's a lot that has to go right here and i'm sure we're going to have bumps along the way. the market pulled forward a tremendous amount of performance and end of the day, you need good tax cuts but above all an

and it was interesting to hear just last hour from kevin hassett. he's one of the top economists here at the white house who said that there had been positive conversations, at least with mexican officials, over the weekend. and he says that once president trump sees what these countries have to offer, it will be up to him to make the call. so certainly, i think these next several hours will be intense ones as americans look to see whether or not these tariffs will go into effect and whether or not prices could increase on all manner of goods that they're consuming large goods like automobiles and refrigerators, but also smaller items like produce, avocados, things that are shipped directly from chinese manufacturers, from companies like shein and temu. all of these things could have a significant effect on americans pocketbooks, and that's a reality that donald trump himself is acknowledging. listen to what he said. >> we may have short term, some little pain and people understand that. but long term, the united states has been ripped off by virtua

that is something that you heard kevin hassett saying here earlier at the white house, peter navarros well, saying it's not a trade war, it's a drug war. they're upset about fentanyl coming across the border, though certainly way less by canada's standards compared to the u.s. southern border. we know a lot of that comes through legal ports of entry, unfortunately. jake. but also, he has a complaint about just the trade that goes back and forth between the u.s. and canada. overall, that does not appear to have changed as a result of this conversation. so it is still an open question of how he tries to wield this in the future. >> all right, kaitlan collins, thanks so much. we're going to have much more reaction to our breaking news in just moments. sweeping american tariffs set to go into effect tonight on both canada and mexico have been paused. keep it here. >> i've got good news and i've got bad news. what do you want first the bad. the news is newsy. even more than ever. >> what's the good news? >> we're doing another season of have i got news for you. >> have i got news for you

we heard that from kevin hassett, one of the top economists here at the white house earlier this morningnow, i think the big question is whether or not this is a huge surprise. you know, we did hear from donald trump just last night that he didn't expect anything dramatic to come out of these telephone calls. but on the other hand, look at those numbers on the screen. the stock market at one point, the dow jones industrial average was down almost 600 points this morning. donald trump is attuned to nothing more than the stock market. and i think there was a sense, at least among some of his outside allies, that he was looking for an off ramp here. now, one of the big questions in this tariff battle is what exactly trump was looking for from canada and mexico. that had been a point of extreme frustration among canadian and mexican officials. what quantifiable metric did he want to see them take in order to ease off these tariffs? you know, just on friday, a delegation of canadian officials was here at the white house meeting with donald trump's border czar. they were supposed to meet aroun

and yet kevin hassett, the president's top economic advisor, telling squawk box this morning the media has it all wrong. we've been misreporting it as a trade war when it's a drug war, suggesting that that's temporary. so there's reason to be confused. i think they may be a little bit confused on people in the white house as well, and reason to think of a risk as being two sided, leaning perhaps towards temporary. that's what the mexican news today tells you. but some non-zero and important chance that there's a permanent sense, kelly, to all these tariffs that the president wants to enact. >> all right. let's bring in lori in. >> here for a second. >> we can. >> kind of kick this around. you've been on the phone all weekend long i mean it's one story one. and let's back up for a second. it was a. surprise that the tariffs moved forward in this way. we thought we might get exemptions entirely on oil. we thought there might they might be more specific. some had thought they might only be steel and aluminum. so you had to go from reporting on that extreme to now, today maybe as of a coup

kevin hassett, the president's top economic advisor, saying on squawk box this morning that this is ae is preparing economic analyzes that take into account all of the president's proposals, not just tariffs, and that he expects they will show a positive growth impact. we'll be talking about some of this stuff with susan collins, boston fed president, at the top of the hour. guys. >> i think that will be important, steve, because the question is how does the fed deal. so now i don't know what you think, but it looks like this is a sort of one off. it's not a gradual increase in tariffs or at least at the moment. and so that should lead to some sticker shock for americans. but it would be hard for the fed to respond to that if it's coming from tariffs and not demand side inflation. i think the bigger risk is that the unemployment rate rises and all the uncertainty and potentially new business decisions, and they would have to respond to that. >> i think you just laid out a great case, sarah, and i think you agree with me that the fed needed to pause in january and maybe pause again in