today's insight is kevin kelly. nitoring the negative sentiment, i guess we are seeing some put buying in the market today as well. kevin: that's right, as a market is going through the jitterbug right now -- [laughter] julie: alluding to our off-camera wham conversation. [laughter] kevin: you are certain to see the markets hedge out. you're saying two to four times puts trading versus calls. and with the vix being relatively low, you see people coming in and hedge relatively low. -- and hedge. to hedgee starting their portfolios going into a macro environment when there are not earnings german market. --ie: are there underlying there are not earnings driving the market. there tea leaves that you are looking to see if this will continue? kevin: a lot of indicators show it. the vix is low. you look at the intraday volatility. moneyis closer to at the and strikes. so you are not seeing skewed bets. you are seeing moves between zero and 10% happening. julie: to put that in layman's terms, people are bears, but not that

. >> let's bring in kevin kelly, president of the cleveland city council. with us. >> thank you for having me. >> sure. let me ask you first and foremost what precautions are you taking and how confidence are you in the preparations cleveland is making for this convention? >> i'm very confident, christi. the city has been preparing for this for over a year. this is something that -- this isn't a rally that has sprung up, this is a major event that we've been preparing for for years -- excuse me, a year and we are very prepare for this. >> in watching what's happened over the last several months and some of the protesters and violence we've seen, surely when you took on this event, did not see this coming, wondering if you've had to shift strategies and how it's impacting is financially the city in this regard. >> maybe slightly. the thing to rather about a political convention is that there are always protests. that a part of the event you prepare for. even if the nominee weren't donald trump and weren't an inflammatory nominee, we were planning on protests

kevin kelly and jonathan hoenig are still with us. what is this decision from the boardroom say about redstone's position with viacom and the future of the company, jonathan? >> i think probably bodes well for the company, david. look at difference in viacom stock price versus what i believe to be better managed company like disney? viacom is major laggard. unfortunately a lot of drama surrounding sumner redstone has a lot to do with that. the fact he is being distanced, this is not a young man say that. being distanced more and more from day-to-day operations bodes well. there is a lot of catching up to do. >> this is great move. viacom has a lot of assets because they're unable to unlock true value and don't have management. board is taking control and unlocking value those assets. much necessary need. it definitely lagged a lot of other media companies. david: quick, one word answer, first to you, jonathan, viacom tomorrow, up or down. >> up. i will go up. david: kevin? >> way up. david: good stuff the thanks, guys. appreciate it.

kelly joining me is kevin .are talking about stocks not doing that much, but the biggest ticking up a little bit. lately we've been watching the curve, that's been the subject of discussion because it seems to imply that volatility will take up. the fix is only a 30 day indicator. everybody knows what is being priced in right now, potential rate hike from the hit fed -- from the fed. investors are nervous about how that's going to play out from october through january. last week in the face of muted markets, especially on friday, you look at today in the market was up earlier in the morning of order percent. we thought spike about four or 5% which is indicative that people are starting to get a little nervous, they think 15 is a bottom level but it will hit at least 21 by january. julie: i remember at the beginning of earnings season you were saying stocks are less all herbal during earnings season that there tends to be full support. is that factoring into this uptick in volatility and expected volatility? kevi

your to bring insight is kevin kelly here at bloomberg lp. kevin, you got a pretty cool role. data and news a lot. show us and tell us what sort of rules you are using to assess the situation in brazil? >> since it bottomed on the 26th, it's up to 50%. that's important to keep in mind when looking at this type of analysis. we wanted to take a deep dive into the crp function. if we take a dive into the terminal, essentially what this function is doing is calculated a country risk premium for the countries that you can see listed. how it is doing this is it is preparing the expected return with the 10 year yield on government bonds and coming up with this risk premium. we are all familiar with how yields are calculated, but what is really interesting about this function itself is the expected market return. there are two copy outs. one, it's not based on historical performance. it's actually based on future analyst and -- analyst estimates with a bottom approach. taking what the investment is going to be at year-end. it's using a bottom up approach in terms of calculating expect

alix: yesterday, we talked with kevin kelly.es the bloomberg for insight on the country's risk premium and expected market return. >> what we want to do is take a dive into the crp function. crp go, and if we take a dive into the terminal, what this function is doing is it is calculating a country risk premium for all the countries you see listed. it is comparing the expected return on the equity market and comparing that with the 10-year yield on government bonds and it's coming up with this risk premium. ,we are familiar with how yields are calculated. what is interested about this function is its expected market return. not based on historical performance. it is actually based on future analyst estimates, and it also uses a bottom-up approach. it is not taking analyst estimates. it is using a bottom-up approach in terms of calculating expected return for each equity within the index animal and that up into an aggregated value. scarlet:scarlet: within that function, you can come up with charts, and we have illustrated one of t

this is something that kevin kelly of recon capital partners mentioned yesterday. now that earning season is coming to a close, there are some questions about whether that can continue. one of the things we have been that aret is etf flows smaller this time around versus prior recent rallies. the rally in 2014, $35 billion coming into stock tracking etf, and the rally we had last fall. $9 billion the current rally we had. this is one of the many things we have been looking at three dollars or renick had a great piece on the charts he is watching. and there's not a lot of confidence in stocks right now. carol: you see momentum slowing with those charts. let's check on the bloomberg first word news. hi, mark. mark: mitt romney, the 2012 republican presidential nominee, we'll skip the party's convention this summer in cleveland according to the associated press, which cites a romney aid. in march, romney delivered a blistering attack on trump, calling him a phony and fraud. trump criticized romney, calling him a choke artist for losing to president obama for years ago

kevin kelly has one, recon capital, options on the nasdaq 100.ause the stocks are very jumpy, this yields 10%. this one is going to obviously have a little bit more volatility to it. this year it is down 4% but the q's are down about 6%. --ically want a product julie: the reason why you are protected somewhat is because you are collecting income? in 2011,ce it came out it is up 30%. 70%.&p is up of that 30%, all of that is the yield. it is down 5% in its price that when you throw in the income, the. -- boom. julie: there is also one for gold as well. eric: it is underrated. peoplehis year, as thought gold was not going anywhere and i still think people think that. this is a way to get yield out of gold. you give up your upside but i think a lot of people do not think gold has upside. this is for people who think the market will go south. julie: or a way to hedge. wildcard,ne is the high volatility etf. eric: put options are the most volatile stocks in the s&p, yields 11% or 12%, a little more risky but an alternative option. is thisric balchunas

kevin kelly is the president of cleveland city council. good to see you.out insurance against potential lawsuits stemming from how riots potentially could be handled. what fueled that decision? where did this come from? >> thanks, first off, thank you for having me. i'm very familiar with the inflammatory rhetoric but any delegate or guest to the city of cleveland should know they'll have a safe and enjoyable visit to cleveland. on the insurance, that is not riot insurance, it's liability insurance against protesters and against claims against the city or law enforcement officers but nothing that other convention cities haven't taken out. it's not unusual and not in response to trump. it's part of what we do to keep the delegates and visitors and our citizens safe. >> is this liability insurance something the city already has or are you telling me it's an additional liability insurance to protect the city just as any city would do for a large event like this? >> thanks, we're taking -- this is above and beyond what we normally do. we do not have this as a

kevin kelly joining us. that's it for today's show. i'm louisa bojesen. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. >>> good morning. breaking overnight, a $62 billion offer for monsanto. >>> and redstone removing viacom's ceo in the event of his death. >>> and decision 2016 in a dead heat. it is monday, may 23. "worldwide exchange" happens right now. ♪ >> good morning and welcome to "wwi

here to weigh in, jason rotman, lead die aisle advisors, kevin kelly, recon capital management. jason does this market make you more bullish or more skiddish what might happen? >> good question. clearly makes me more bullish for a few reasons. reason number one, there is really no recession, okay? that is why the market went all crazy last fall. it was down five, 10% in january. there was uncertainty hey, is this economy going to fail with higher rates on the horizon? and the u.s. is starting to show that the answer to that question is no. we had amazing housing numbers. there is decent jobs growth. there is a little bit of inflation which is food for commodity producers, et cetera. so there is a lot of money on the sidelines is the bottom line, and today that money is starting to get back in. david: kevin, remember the first quarter, gdp, i hate to remind you, it was one-half of 1%. i mean, we are going at a pretty stagnant level. with might have changed in second quarter. but, i'm wondering if there is too much optimism. we should mention, one stock in the s&p 500 that has a m

dagan mcdowell along with recon capitals kevin kelly, a lot of business stories in the news. >> it hasot of implications, it is strong and resilient on these home depot numbers. dagen: what does the presidential election do with the uncertainty in terms of policy, >> oil at $47 a barrel. >> oil is a big story. maria: it had 48 earlier today. you can't miss lineup. former arkansas governor and presidential candidate mike huckabee with us along with bob right, soap opera star sean kenney will join us, donald trump supporter and former rnc chairman and mississippi governor haley barbour with us. ambassador to four ambassadors will be with us, you don't want to miss a moment of it. to politics we go, all eyes on oregon in 2003, residents cast their primary votes today. all polls in kentucky are open, we want to bring in arkansas governor and presidential candidate mike huckabee. good to see you, thanks for joining us. we were talking earlier about how this vote in kentucky is coal country. >> hillary clinton has so often did the coal industry, she has tried to be as much as barack obama co

i'm going to bring in kevin kelly, recon capital, what are you expecting, what is going on with detailnsumer still not reacting to oil prices where they are? kevin: consumer hasn't rebounded and spending money more on things like monster energy, they have done well in this environment, but what's really happening in retail sector, margins are coming under compression as well. margins are starting to compress w e so e with macy's, jc pennies, now with nordstrom. maria: i was surprised during the break retail saleses at in about two hours and estimate is up eight tenths of a percent. does that tell a different story than what we are seeing from some of the retailers? >> you want to look over the last three months, last six months, last year just to start to see a trend. what we have seen is mixed data. eight tenths of a percent would be great, it's probably start to go spend a little more getting healthier reaffirming the job's numbers that we have seen that wages are starting to increase so will help solidify the story. maria: markets under pressure this morning. how important for the s

joining us right now fox business dagen mcdowell and jerry baker here and recon capital kevin kelly,dagen: elba for james bond. i'm never going to let it go. maria: why? dagen: because he's phenomenal. i will move on. maria: trump campaign national spokesperson katrina pearson. you don't want to miss a moment of it. stay with us in the next couple of hours. breaking news on the disappearance of egypt air flight 804. egyptian officials this morning are saying that they now have found debris including passenger's belongs just north of alexandria, egypt. the black box which could give new information on exactly what happened moments before the flight disappeared and apparently went down. joining us right now navy intelligence officer navid. where do you think the case is now in terms of investigators? they found debris, they found passenger belongs, where does this go now? >> well, it doesn't look good. it clearly has the hallmarks of terrorism. the thing that concerns me is that donald trump is coming out here and making clear, on the other hand if it's not terrorism he's paint us in t

. >>> "outfront" now, kevin madden who served as press secretary. kelly ann conway president of a pro cruz super pac. jeffrey lord who served as little director for reagan. and angela rai and mark preston. kevin, let me start with you. donald trump presumptive nominee. reince priebus is saying his hash tag on twitter is never clinton. do you buy in? is there anything that gets kevin madden on board? >> urging unity is the job of the chairman. i think achieving unity is going to be very difficult right now. i think there are a lot of raw exposed nerves inside the party. and it's -- definitely going to be an uphill climb. i think many committed principled republicans and conservatives believe that donald trump has to earn their vote. and to this point, because of, you know, his departure on many issues or because of how he conducted himself, that he hasn't. so they are going to -- you know, continue to use elements of this -- of the party just not support him and not show up in november. >> but in your phrasing, the question for you, could he earn your vote

kelly. >> thank you, seema. this company, kevin is the whole thing. >> without a doubt.ead of map my fitness is -- >> i love it. it's a little wonky. >> it was an explicit decision on their part not to go on the gadget side but much more focused the software. >> it's a change of underpants, the outerwear. is it plank, you said snit's phil knight. >> i think both guys would be offended by that, which is why it's probably correct. >> let's get straight to sharon epperson. >> here's what's happening at this hour. in washington secretary of state john kerry says he believes a cease-fire deal could be restored in syria despite escalating violence but he warned president bashir al assad there would be repercussions unless he sticks to the agreement. >>> sheldon silver once one of the state's premier power brokers has received a 12-year prison sentence and a fine for corrupt charges. he arrived at the courthouse amid a sea of reporters. he will surrender july 1st. >>> the purchase price was not disclosed. >>> and beyonce's latest album "lemonade" is proving to be a record sette

. >> kevin caught a glimpse of the dark side persona when he was shooting routine footage of kelly duringgregation cell. he grew agitated when he believed officers returned him before his time was up. >> you make my blood boil, you know what i'm saying. i'm telling you, don't play with me, i didn't do nothing wrong. >> okay, relax. >> this is how you make me, when y'all abuse your authority, you understand? this will take me back to the old days. >> i finally got to see the other side of him. but up until then, he had been nothing but respectful and sort of the opposite of what we had heard. >> kelly opened up to us about the impact of spending nearly a year and a half in segregation. >> this is going on 17 months right here. done bother me. 23 hours a day spent in this here. sitting here, reading my bible. looking at myself in the mirror. breaking point. breaking point. >> i think segregation when it comes to eric kelly made him a little more reflective. >> i was in a cell and i was just meditating. i just started meditating hard about my life, you know what i'm saying? you know, tears c

some are reading that into it, house republican whip kevin mccarthy signed up yesterday to be a trump delegate in california. but others, like kelly ayotte are trying to balance running for re-election on the republican line with trump. >> i've said that i'm going to vote for our republican nominee, but i don't intend to endorse anyone in this race. >> let's not forget there are republican primaries today in west virginia and nebraska, but donald trump is running now unopposed. there's also a democratic primary that we cannot forget in west virginia where the latest polls show bernie sanders leading hillary clinton. we have our correspondents and analysts all lined up. they're standing by to talk about all of the headlines. we begin with nbc's jacob rascon who joins us live from trump tower. so jacob, the trump campaign now having a big meeting discussing financing for his campaign and also we have the new development that's being reported that corey lewandowski will lead the search for a vice president. >> reporter: right. this is a big week for the trump campaign and a very different week, even after last week he became the pres

kevin bacon, patti labelle, kobe bryant, bradley coopering wilt chamberlain and my favorite the local irish girl who behavior a movie queen and a european princess to boot her serene highness grace kellyall for now. thanks for being with us. all in with chris hayes starts right now. >>> tonight on "all in." >> this man who is an unqualified loose cannon is within reach of the most important job of the world. >> donald trump crosses the threshold with his grace and dignity. >> who? pocahontas? look. she is offensive. you tell me. oh, i'm sorry about that. pocahontas? >> trump's response to president obama -- >> the world pay ace tension to the u.s. elections. they're rattled by them. and for good reason. >> and his promise to bernie sanders. >> donald trump has agreed to debate me, and i look forward to that. >> i'd love to debate bernie. he's a dream. >>> plus, we'll analyze trump's deep dive on energy policy. >> the windmills are killing hundreds and hundreds of eagles