are these four guys, i mean you got john taylor, you got kevin warsh.now, you got cogan and you got glenn hubbard. i'm supposed to take you -- when you come on, do you get mail from people saying what -- i mean i can imagine the only fan mail you get is from elizabeth warren and bernie sanders with some of your contentions >> some of the mail i get from people who say why does joe kernen keep talking over you >> last time it was betsy mccoy -- >> so anyway, look, first of all, that was a brilliant explanation by steve as to what's going on in this report >> you're talking about to take your side. >> he doesn't have a side. he's telling you what's in there. look, this is a classic validater document i've been there myself you're in the administration, you have a proposal, you tag some in this case a-list republican economists, many of whom as he suggests would love to see themselves sitting in janet yellen's chair next year and ask them to validate your report on the marginal tax point, look, let me surprise you. there are lots of credible studies that s

director to garrett cohn, that half of the respondents think cohn will be the next chair, followed by kevin warshn taylor. just a quarter of respondents think she will keep her job before the president's statement. the president is expected to make his decision by the end of the year it's a little curious because yellen's term ends in january. he told "the journal" he thinks he'll get confirmation of the fed chair quickly, but that's not been the case with his other nominees. >> steve, thank you. >> sure. >>> and facebook, meanwhile, said to report earnings later today with the stock already up more than 40% for the year let's bring in john blackledge and mark may, senior analyst good morning does facebook need a perfect quarter given how much the stock has run up and should we be -- investors be concerned, they have a way of bringing up cap ex-ex or other things to bring down movements like this. >> investors shouldn't be concerned. we raised our forecast for the long term given the user growth. i mean, facebook had more than 2 million monthly users. you have instagrams that are incredible it wi

i mean, he can make it very easy on himself, pick a guy named kevin warsh who, again, has been a republicanw if he has a ph.d. but gary cohn has got lightning rod all over him. and i tell you, don't dismiss the goldman sachs part. remember, draining the swamp is what president trump said during the campaign, this guy -- listen, he's a smart guy. i actually like the guy, but he was part of that, you know, alleged swamp, let's say, and he was in knee-deep in goldman sachs activities during the financial crisis. so i just laid it out to you. not an easy pick. steve: absolutely. and so her term ends next year. we'll see if the president nominates him. meanwhile, what exactly happens at sun valley? ainsley said there are a bunch of bigwigs out there. who are they and what do they do? >> well, our boss is out here, rupert maydock, the last time i was here, i was thrown out because i had an argument with a security guard. so just full disclosure there. and the security here is very, very tight. there is just about every major media mogul here. this is a place where deals get done. and i tell you,

have gary comb and john taylor of a renown there is been some perspective >> taylor fell 9% and kevin warshemains 27% where he was look at gary kcohn, how about th outlook for what kind of policy the next fed chair will enact. and 48% say unchanged. you can read this chart anywhere you like 58% say loser or unchanged or more and more than 80% says tighter or unchanged the risk seems to be on tighter. lets look at the expectations for monetary policy and physical policy on monetary the outlook is coming down. it had been 2.3% for 2018 for the fed funds rate and now it is down to two. partly because of the screen the outlook for fiscal policy has also come down if you look at the average it is all plus 3 quarters and 1 quarter, that's half a year later than expected. if you look at the nevers, 31% would be healthcare reform they're following the healthcare reform why part of the reason because the expectations if healthcare reform stumbles, that's a negative for tax cuts. >> back to you guys. >> thank you very much the latest polls revealed, what's the impact on the market and the economy. le

i think john taylor is a top choice kevin warsh is a top choice.taylor is not strong enough and warsh is too young. so they're not decided on it there's always glenn hubbard out there, seems like a good idea. >> a wrinkle to that on warsh? >> yeah. >> that he's not dovish enough >> well, this is -- that's interesting. but the trouble with kevin is it's a little hard to discern from his very strong and well written pieces, what he means about policy because there's a lot of head shaking in the room when kevin talks. >> can i ask you about tax reform >> sure. >> because people are still very positive in the business world about that even if there's a 7% change it could be a big deal for the economy. >> well that's the thing i mean, the democrats and republicans in the previous administration were 3 percentage points apart and couldn't make a deal a lot of people think they could get to some somewhere in the mid 20s, it would be a big success, it would be a process, you know, on the road to getting it right. >> yes >> the question becomes whether or n