luke: kevin warsh. jonathan: i'm surprised at the consensus around kevin warsh here.ll be fun and difficult, because you have to pick one of these. catalonia or spain with a similar maturity. i will pick out 2020. the spread is about 300 basis points. which one do you hold through 2020? catalonia or spain? oksana: not touching that one. [laughter] george: i'm off-line on that one, too. jonathan: luke, you have to give me one. luke: you would have to go with spain. jonathan: there we go, we really appreciate your time. oksana staying out of trouble alongside george and luke pick -- hickmore at aberdeen standard investments. new york, that does it for us. we will see you next friday at 12:00 new york time, 5:00 p.m. in london. until next time, have a great weekend. this is "bloomberg: real yield." ♪ ♪ announcer: the thrill of living well is in the pursuit. the pursuit of the rarest experiences. the pursuit of the finest products. the pursuit of quality in everything you do. and in all of these pursuits, you need the best intelligence to make the best decisions. >> we kn

a couple of days ago, kevin warsh on the top of the list. kevin warsh for unwinding the fed portfolio a little faster than how to and you could put jerome powell. liz: he's up there, too. >> listen, i could see him picking any one of those three. maybe you. liz: charlie's got another story. more breaking news. go to your office, right behind your head and come back when ready for that. >>> on wall street, 23 hours after clocking 54th record high of the year, the dow is pulling a u-y looking at biggest drop since september 5th. one loan index is moving in the opposite direction. wall street's fear gauge, the vix, the volatility index jumping to the highest level in more than six weeks. you saw three months ago it was much higher, now we have it climbing back up, jumping about 8% today at 12. see when it gets below 10 and you're in the nine territory that is extremely complacent behavior. we're getting more nervous as we look at all kinds of question marks about policy. we have boeing, boeing is very much one of the stocks keeping the dow grou

not hearing people who oppose poulin personally but hear a little bit of internal opposition to kevin warsh. kevin not put on the board, we put him on the board a month ago, has now become a top contender, maybe a middle ground between hopes who is want a change in policy and a continuation jay powell may be that kind of guy. >> last question a day of hot seats, sloan and the former equifax ceo on the hot seat the chances, what is the percentage change that yellen is reappointed in your mind now through your reporting in. >> our poll shows it's a 38% chance and i had somebody richard fisher said this morning. >> what's your own gut tell you? >> more like 20. i think donald trump is going to want to put his own stamp on the federal reserve. i feel like he's that kind of guy. i feel like he's not going to want to say yellen is my person because yellen is not his person, will never be his person he will reappoint her. he can never own that appointment as something and i think that's the kind of person he is, although i think the market would favor that reappointment. >> steve, thanks. >> pleas

call 1-800-directv. >>> kevin warsh et front-runner where we in the race and what would warsh mean forate hikes ahead. steve liesman joins us with the latest. >> kevin warsh a former ned governor is now a top candidate for the job of fed chair along by the way with current fed governor jay powell. warsh has made no secret. he is not happy with current fed policy. >> changes are in order in how the fed organizes itself, conducts its business, deliberates policy choices and makes its decisions. the existing governance structure reinforces a group think. it places the fed at considerable institutional risk when the next crisis strikes and it makes the next crisis more likely to be harmful. >> digging into his record here, here's just some of thing it's called it warsh versus the fed. he thinks the fed should have exited low rates and focuses too much on decimal points and not whole numbers when it comes to things like inflation targets. moves too much by the latest economic data and too concerned with market reactions. warsh is fond of blasting the fed in how it would with alter or fix cu

and kevin warsh was not really high on the list. met with mike pence on the same day that trump met with yellen, thursday of last week. betting,also apparently and we have been getting an idea that john taylor is favored by conservative republicans that change direction. kevin warsh is also in that can't as someone who would change direction. furthermore, the wall street journal story points out that back in 2012 when j powell was first nominated for board of governors, 21 republicans voted against him, and in 2014 when he got his own turn to be on the board, 24 voted against him. more of a race to the extent that donald trump will listen to his own vice president and listen to other conservative republicans. one thing we know for sure is he said he would make this pic by november 3 because that's when he's leaving for asia. on high alert waiting to see what happens. like we're like that every single day. there is so much debate about john taylor and how hawkish of the fed chairman he could be. that situationin as well? .athleen: an

i think kevin warsh has a strong case. i think is a pretty strong case in a particular realm.re the markets pricing that in? not likely at this point. jonathan: oksana staying with us fromgeorge and luke aberdeen standard investments. the auction block. the country very much needed to get away from its bond offering this week. the results are next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: on jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg "real yield." they start with corporate and focus on a little bit more in energy. an offering from transocean energy. energy companies are returning to credit markets at the fastest pace in three years, with bankruptcies falling and companies facing more than $70 billion of debt maturing in 2019. salehabi's $10 billion following saudi arabia's $12.5 billion issue last week. it was a record $89 billion this year. the big headliner was in spain. a sale of 3.2 billion, up 53 basis points. for the double on last month's spanish sales of similar debt. sending it to the highest level of interest in this maturity for months. oksana aronoff and george kumquat us that luke

much ae is not so potential republican insider as someone like kevin warsh.ll the names are there. it is very interesting. we will know pretty soon who the next fed chair might be. this wild card twice as well. i have a funny feeling you will be talking about. it would be really out of left field. another hint would be financial crisis and bailout. he is a very much a newcomer to this position. neil has made it clear and has done lots of town halls. he would another essay saying the fed should not raise rates until they have gotten clearly to their target. until then, the fed should go cautiously. again, i think it might be one of the raps against him is that he is new to the fed and is one of the younger candidates. is this someone who will inspire the markets? importantvery consideration as well. that is who he thinks donald trump will pick. thank you so much for that. today, tom keene has a conversation with us and outgoing stanley fischer. see if markets are acting up. let's get a new york and join remy. is a getting translated to the asia-pacific markets

kevin warsh a respectable fourth on both. gary cohn once thought as the front-runner below 5% on both of those. how will all this change monetary policy? what does it mean for interest rate we asked who would be more hawkish or dovish relative to existing policy. see over here this would be the more hawkish john taylor thought to be the most hawkish kevin warsh a little more. powell and cohn considered to be right around what existing policy would be. question is why does the market want yellen? three reasons, one, she has more experience than all the other combined on the fed. markets generally just don't like change. time l finally over on this side, it ain't broke. as far as most in the market are concerned, policy on a pace the way they like it they don't see a need for change, change agents represented by taylor and warsh. bill >> steve liesman there we got 26 minutes left in the trading session here on the floor the new york stock exchange with charles with rosenblatt securities. what do you guys talk about here regardi

we know up to this point, kevin warsh has saidin there behind the curve.he fed funds rate higher, so he would bc as a hawkish candidate. once in office, they have to deal with the fact that this is a 19 member committee. of people whole bunch who will have a lot of influence on what is said. the chair can guide people, but what janet yellen does, she finds out where the committee is, positions herself at the head of it, and moves it in that direction. but if there is significant pushback, the chair will not be able to say i will do it this way -- my way. jonathan: even if you stood on the voting record of kevin walsh, he he voted for qe, then almost medially afterward, criticized qe. is the only known quantity jerome powell? michael: jerome powell and janet yellen. you can guess where kevin walsh would like to go. the economic circumstances are different from where they were in 2008 and 2010, when he was a voting for and against qe. what will he do in january or february will depend on what the economy is doing. that is the same thing you are hearing janet

gary cohn and kevin warsh. gary cohn is probably more useful on the fiscal efforts so by process of elimination i would say kevin warsh. alix: it was an interesting intraday move yesterday. the white line is that 2-10 curve, got a lot steeper on the headlines from politico -- sorry, that is the white line. the blue line is the s&p financials, moving in tandem with that steeper curve. is this the correct response to a potential dove at the head of the fed? ben: one of the book ends on the outcomes here, the most dovish possible is a continuation of current policy. j powell is probably the most emblematic of that stance. what is the current policy? .or gradual tightening if anything, markets seem underpriced for what the fed will be doing over the next year or so. we have had this conjecture that they will resume rate right -- rate hikes. i would not be surprised if they got in two or three next year. carl: banks like steeper yield curves, so i think that was the appropriate response for financials, and you will

said kevin warsh has been "wrong about everything." explained why he could still get the job. >> politically correct from the republican point of view, has some family connections with trump. might still be appointed. vonnie: joining us now is chairman andnd, ceo of holland & co. kevin warsh has a chance of getting it and pull krugman is coming from a particular place when he says he's wrong about everything. what would he be like as a fed chair? michael: i think he will be just fine. from whence he speaks because he's been wrong about lots of things, himself. worth has been worried about inflation and overspending on securities. overall, he was the honest fed governor ever appointed -- the youngest fed governor ever appointed. the market will take it all right, bonds will trade off because the bond market believes he's going to accelerate the unwinding of the portfolio. powell was that, mr. the author winner last night, is one who will probably get a thumbs up from the markets. mr. taylor is the only one -- he's the third name in the

and then there's kevin warsh. on the fed board for more than a decade, so he is experienced, but he may want to see too fast a rise in interest rates. i'm joined by simon french, chief economist at the investment bank panmure gordon. good morning. so ben talking through the various candidates, no sign of janet yellen among them. no, the markets have responded well to the four years of janet yellen, if you see the challenge she had on hands, the us economy recovering from its biggest financial crisis in 70 yea rs, biggest financial crisis in 70 years, she started the normalisation of monetary policy, bringing up interest rates, and this month is of monetary policy, bringing up interest the ;, and this month is of monetary policy, bringing up interest the balanceiis month is of monetary policy, bringing up interest the balance sheet, th is of monetary policy, bringing up interest the balance sheet, the $4 reducing the balance sheet, the $4 trillion held by the federal a skilful reserve. so that is a skilful balancin

kevin warsh rises to that level. jay powell also rises to that level. janet yellen perhaps less so i think there's a concern here, scott, that a positive or an approval of some of these tax cuts and policies for the economy could cause an opposite reaction at the fed, and i think the president wants somebody to give him a little bit of a leash on this when it comes to let's get the tax cuts in place. let the economy run and don't preempt -- not just the deficit is one thing and worry about the inflationary impacts later on and don't be so reflexive and one of the conversations we've been having is kevin warsh would be also reflexive. the economy is strong and ergo inflation. >> if this concept that says let us do the tax cut, let us do $1 trillion worth of stimulus and give that a couple of years to work through the system before any more tightening which would blunt the edge of that stimulus, this is going to be a free for all for risk assets. >> you're not supposed to trade that way, josh, you know that. >> hold on. >> also discount -- >> that's at th

it looks like kevin warsh is the most likely contender. yelena: when you hear about it in the news, some names are floated and it increases the chances when somebody is mentioned in the news. i would say that the preference for low interest rates actually disqualifies some of those ,andidates such as kevin warsh because his preference, and he has been talking a lot about financial stability. i natural stability concerns would almost automatically mean higher interest rates, and this is not something president trump achievet if he wants to surface end growth in gdp. vonnie: stf financial came out with a note that said only fed governor powell has a -- tradable. is that true? yelena: i think he is next on the list after chair yellen. if she is disqualified because of her opposition to deregulation, which she clearly stated at jackson hole, i think jerome powell has probably the most qualifications to get the job. shery: how about pushback from republicans? conventional republicans like john taylor. how is he doing? yelena: i think low intere

who's a favorite at this point >> i think it's kevin warsh. i'm not really sure. his star had fallen in the predicted numbers, but he's the one who keeps coming up in terms of the surveys that are done look, here's what is definitely clear. no one outside the white house knows who the president's going to pick and no one inside the white house knows who the president's going to pick. i talked to a few of them on and off. it depends a little bit on the flavor of the day, flavor of the week that's how it goes back and forth. and it depends on who was in there last. >> all right so yellen's going to be in there last. >> she may shoot up. >> through your reporting what do you think what are her chances, put a percentage on it from what you know now. >> i think they're below 50% i have two reasons for that. one is that the recent opposition in the gop. remember the gop complained for a long time about low interest rates and they talked about runaway inflation, the inability to sell bonds and all this stuff. and distortion of the market they criticize her and i think th

talk about kevin warsh and what we know of him. its president trump's choice. to him whether he wants to choose the person based on the personality or the politics. we simply think he would to somebody who would be a low interest rate person. warsh.uld not be kevin he would be more hawkish. that is our view. he had interesting views about changeon and he wants to certain things. i think you would be more .awkish than chair yellen powell would be another interesting choice. shery: we have already talked about kashkari. what about powell? be a change into policy from the current policy. it would be a continuation of the current kind of policy. chair yellen explicitly said that she would be very much against any deregulation. that could be to adam for the current administration and in this case governor powell becomes the second choice. me ask you about the meetings getting underway. how much of the focus is going to be on the u.s. economy? the imf looking at the growth outlook. it seems on the bright side. they revised it up a little bit. we had it much in line w

i think kevin warsh has a strong case. i think is a pretty strong case in a particular realm.re the markets pricing that in? not likely at this point. jonathan: oksana staying with us and george and luke from aberdeen standard investments. the auction block. the country very much needed to get away from its bond offering this week. the results are next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: on jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg "real yield." they start with corporate and focus on a little bit more in energy. an offering from transocean energy. energy companies are returning to credit markets at the fastest pace in three years, with bankruptcies falling and companies facing more than $70 billion of debt maturing in 2019. abu dhabi's $10 billion sale following saudi arabia's $12.5 billion issue last week. it was a record $89 billion this year. the big headliner was in spain. a sale of 3.2 billion, up 53 basis points. for the double on last month's spanish sales of similar debt. sending it to the highest level of interest in this maturity for months. oksana aronoff and george kumquat u

and then there is kevin warsh.the board for a decade but may want to see interest rates go up faster and he was wrong about the risks of high inflation would have fared's accommodative monetary policy. whoever gets tapped will have a toughjob whoever gets tapped will have a tough job ahead, steering the american economy of historic low interest rates without sinking the recovery. shares of kobe steel have pushed higher, the third—largest steelmaker injapan undera higher, the third—largest steelmaker in japan under a cloud higher, the third—largest steelmaker injapan under a cloud of controversy after admitting to falsifying dart on a range of products. will these earnings be affected by the scandal? we are expecting the first half result in about five hours from now but they have said they can't what have said they can't determine what impact this scandal will have on the bottomline. kobe steel forecast a profit for the year ending march 2018 after two successive years of major losses. that might actually changed n

and then there is kevin warsh.bought for more than a decade, so knows the gig- for more than a decade, so knows the gig. but he may want interest rates go. and he was warned about inflation. whoever rodez will have a ahead steering away difficultjob ahead steering away from historically low interest rates. with me is nandini ramakrishnan, global market strategist atjp morgan asset management. good morning. good to see you. so is samir hussein was talking to some of the candidates. there are few fair, powell, the continuity candidate, then taylor, who could be a little bit more unpredictable. yes, there isa bit more unpredictable. yes, there is a difference between powell having experience and working with the taylor for several years, and taylor, who is eight professor who invented the taylor rule, and according to that rule, they should be higher than where they are now. this is a continuity candidate versus somebody who is a little bit mawkish. it is important to remember that whoever is picked, they are still wo

kevin warsh, i doubt for some.part says he has a long running feud with someone appointed by trump as the fed board governor. has been lobbying against kevin warsh. steve mnuchin has been listening, because he is not on side, he favors jay powell. let's look at g #btv 3203. a bettingill see, website. red line is powell. janet yellen in the yellow line, moore strength. -- more strength. kevin warsh not convincing anybody. said john taylor is far and away the strongest candidate. there is no way he would take the job is number two, he would not take the vice chair of -- fed. betty: he does not want to be the wing man? [laughter] kathleen: monetary wing man -- wingman. betty: -- thing going have a on with the markets, we like the markets. he give another interview this week to fox business news and here is what he said when asked about re-nominating janet yellen. you would like to make your own mark, which is one of the things he -- she has against her. that i think she is terrific, we had a great talk. we are doing w

seen as more hawkish followed by kevin warsh. cohn and powell seen as supporting the status quo. 8 of 9 categories yellen was the best for stocks, growth, best for managing the financial crisis and best for unemployment taylor was judged best for keeping inflation stable president trump has said he'll make his choice before he heads overseas november 3rd. steve liesman, cnbc news >> let's talk to the expert. kevin geddis is with us. the street wants a continuation of the status quo, janet yellen. will they get it >> i think so. i participated in steve's -- >> you did >> it's interesting as i see as it plays out most of the participants are in agreement, jay powell would be the likely choice. it's an interesting thing going on why do you need a hawk currently? you may need over time, but currently running the fed worried about inflation, that's about the last thing the u.s. is worried about. it appears that the president wants to take out anything that had to do with the former administration which is why janet yellen is falling a

you have kevin warsh, jerome powell. they seem to be front-runners.ld not say anyone is sticking out. and gary cohn are the connect as the least likely to be next fed chair. does that seem consistent with what you are seeing or believe? what about john taylor, who seems like a wildcard? michael: i do not have any inside information. i do not know what the white house is thinking. where the pic, it would represent continuity. deputy for a loyal both young and bernanke over the years. would be a change as far as how policy is conducted. shot in termsnger of where we go from here. betty: stay with us, we will talk more about this. michael feroli from jpmorgan. do not miss our conversation with lawrence ho. yvonne: looking ahead the u.s. jobs, we will have the first reaction from white house national economic director gary cohn at 9:30 eastern. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ yvonne: this is "daybreak asia," i am yvonne man in hong kong. betty: i am betty liu here in new york. a bevy of the fed speakers talk about rate hike ahead. here.en hays is we just heard mic

just over the past few weeks we talked about kevin warsh and those predicted markets. >> that would have been a bigger uncertainty. >> right all of that playing into the discussion as we talk about, we do see asian equities now closing on this friday. you can see they're green across the board. the nikkei in japan, up for a 14th straight day. this is the longest winning streak for the nikkei since 1961 it's an amazing run. we have elections, we'll talk about that later on. the hang seng up bay percent the shanghai up bay quarty a qu percent. we're seeing a bit of positivity on the heels of yesterday's big day for the u.s. markets the dax is up bay quarty a quara percent. the cac up fractionally. >> dollar moving higher. we saw, if we look at the intraday chart of the dollar, a move up on that vote that bodes well for the u.s. economy, for the dollar trade. dollar stronger against the yen, up three quarters of a percent nice move there. also firmer against the euro at 1.18 oil prices, there is the intraday chart that's what i was talking about. you got that vote, you saw a spike up you al

yes. >> he's been considered more dovish than kevin warsh. that's why we saw market reaction to the emergence of jerome powell, that's last week or the week before we'll see what happens we should know more in the next couple weeks let's talk about the start of the earnings season in the u.s., kicking off with jp morgan and citi. >>> the big banks kick off their report card season that's in two minutes. zar: one of our investors was in his late 50s right in the heart of the financial crisis, and saw his portfolio drop by double digits. it really scared him out of the markets. his advisor ran the numbers and showed that he wouldn't be able to retire until he was 68. the client realized, "i need to get back into the markets- i need to get back on track with my plan." the financial advisor was able to work with this client. he's now on track to retire when he's 65. having someone coach you through it is really the value of a financial advisor. you myour joints...thing for your heart... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for

kevin warsh or powell? >> i think they're both excellent.he question is will we see the new fed chair being dressed down on twitter the way rex tillerson is that would be problematic. >> so far we have not seen it even though he campaigned against yellen >> maybe when he puts his person in, maybe that will change the dynamic like i own you, i gave you this job >> loyalty >> absolutely. >> ken rogoff, thank you for being here this morning. wilfred, back over to you. >> thank you very much >>> still to come on "worldwide exchange," we're live on the front lines of the deadly wildfires tearing through the heart of california's wine country. back in a upcole minutes it can provide what we call an unlock: a realization that often reveals a better path forward. at wells fargo, it's our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and wealth management firms in the country. discover how we can help find your unlock. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get you up to speed on the marke

i fear john taylor, kevin warsh. i really want gary cohn in their.athan: why would you really want gary cohn? bob: i think it is time to get in markets practitioner into the fed seat and balance the econometric models of the ivory towers with the real world we all have to deal with. jonathan: i don't the guy ever anyone talk about gary cohen for weeks. bob: i thought i would serve him in when you gave me the airtime. jonathan: marilyn, as he said around with the guys of blackrock anticipating the decision that could come any day now, how you approach a decision like this? marilyn: you have to look at the probability we are looking at what the market is pricing in. when you look it all the different candidates, a lot is known about several of them. potentially at taylor and how hawkish he will be, i think it's overplayed. when you look at the list of candidates, some on the more hawkish side, but actually it is one person that will be leading the fed with a will have one vote. they will be leading a committee. it is all focused on the fundamentals and

kevin warsh is perceived as and gary cohn seems to have annoyed trump one time too many.at will be a continuation of current policy. that will tell us if the runoff will continue to happen. it will continue to point to two or three hikes next year. s. has gottenthe u. flatter and flatter. is it going to invert? is that the direction we are heading in? >> very quickly, i think there is a lot of uncertainty about that policy going forward. at the moment it looks like it is on autopilot, but with a new chairman you have three or four more vacant seats on the committee. suddenly, the fringe presidents become more important. you could have interesting dynamics taking place that could make it less predicable. the market has tended to view the fed as the boy who cried wolf. they keep saying they will raise rates steadily, but this is the first year they have done it. the market does not believe the economy is that dynamic. so, i think in terms of the curve, the other factor at play is that we have a lot of qe going on globally, tending to push things down. think that would steep

that will tell you the interpretations of the debates whether john taylor is a hop or not, kevin warshthat howell and yellen are on the dovish side of things. the further flattening of the yield curve would mean that the market is feeling warsh or taylor kennedy as being hawkish -- candidacy as being hawkish. four-time and memorial. if you have that flattening of the yield curve, it tends to not be supportive. question.uick we are talking about what would happen to markets depending on whether the president appoints or nominate a hawk. how is he going to do this? finalists to the city and would tell them who would get the nod? >> you can expect drama, you can expect this reality show type of environment to continue, even when it comes to monetary policy, which is not necessarily seen as an entertaining part of the presidency. you can expect them to drag it revealedake sure it's with a lot of drama like you did with the supreme court nomination. stay tuned, you can expect a very dramatic unveiling of the name. julia: we will stay tuned. thank you for that. scarlet: let's get you to toda

krugman gave his thoughts on kevin warsh.ray while, the bedding -- for a while, the betting was for kevin warsh, former fed governor record and isk quite consistent. he has been wrong about everything. matt: still with us is dean yeah ates in -- is steen jakobsen saxo bank. the main question is not "are they want to raise rates?" the market expects them to. "are they going to do it two or three times next year?" but rather "who is want to be the next fed chair?" how important is the question and what is the answer? steen: it is more important what about thisrman does inflation debate which is still going on. it could be a woman. the 1970's. in krugman was educating himself. the model has not changed over that time. owndel by which their research is told to be inferior to all other predictive models of inflation. we have inflation targeting with a model that does not work in the fed. having said that, i doubt kevin chairman, be the next because the one thing going for him up for us is that his father-in-law is a very good frie

others up for the job are gary cohn, kevin warsh, and stanford university economist john taylor. >>> also in washington, online media companies are facing the threat of new regulation over political ads. it is the first major attempt to regulate companies like facebook, twitter, google, to make them comply with the same laws that govern political ads on tv, radio, and in print. kayla tausche has the details. >> reporter: the u.s. intelligence community found evidence russia-backed agents used social media platforms, facebook, google, twitter, in an attempt to influence the 2016 presidential race. virginia senator margin wak war says the facebook ads traced to russia is just the beginning. >> i suspect this is the tip of the iceberg. these are the ads that were paid for in rubles. we've not been able to sort through whether some of these same accounts may have been smart enough to use dollars, euros or pounds to pay for ads. there may be more. >> reporter: with some 220 million users in the u.s., facebook reaches nearly ten times the subscribers of the largest cable company at 22 mill

kevin warsh served during the financial crisis on the federal reserve from 2006 to 2011 but he broke with fed officials when he left in 2011. he thought the fed had gone too far in keeping rates and policy too low for too long. the question is whether or not warsh being the fed chair would mean higher rates. trump is also considering john taylor, really seen as a leading light in m. he has strongly advocated for the fed to follow rules for setting fed policy. fed officials oppose him, saying it takes away discretion during financial crises. the president says he likes and respects current fed chair janet yellen and she remains among the top five. but most believe the president wants his own person in the job. the president could face opposition from republicans who have been critical of the fed. still, yellen has more experience at the fed, as you can see here, than all of the other candidates combined. gary cohn, director of the national economic council, a top economic adviser to the president, was once a leading candidate but his odds fell almost to nothing after he criticized the

if kevin warsh were nominated, it would be a 15 basis point.f yellen or powell were nominated, it would go down slightly. do you think that plays into the thinking of the white house when they nominate a fed chief? question, theey federal reserve unanimously adopted an inflation goal five years ago. it was with rob support from beeness, they have maintaining that inflation goal ever since. that inflation goal could be resist -- revisited, one of the candidates want to reduce it. a couple of the others, certainly chair yellen and board member powell would probably maintain that goal. a key question for the president and the senate is are they reasonably satisfied with the job performance and inflation performance of the fed over the last two years? last few years, if they are, let's stick to the known quantity. joe: speaking of that inflation goal, they haven't been hitting it. they haven't been hitting 2%, do you think the fed has a handle on why they haven't been hitting it, or do you have a favorite among the various ones out there? i think t

i fear john taylor, kevin warsh. i would really want want gary cohn in there.does not look like he is in the race anymore. jonathan: why would you really want gary cohn? why would he be so good? bob: i think it is time to get a markets practitioner into the fed seat and balance the econometric models of the ivory towers with the real world we all have to deal with. jonathan: i don't think i have ever heard anyone talk about gary cohn becoming the fed chair weeks.eks -- for bob: i thought i would serve him in when you gave me the airtime. jonathan: marilyn, as you sit around with the guys of blackrock anticipating the decision that could come any day now, how you approach a decision like this? have you as all? marilyn: you have to look at the probability. we are looking at what the market is pricing in. but as you mentioned when you , look it all the different candidates, a lot is known about several of them. i think potentially, when you look at taylor, for example, and how hot she is going to be, i think that is sort of being overplayed. he is going to be, i t

janet yellen is in the running , kevinith kevin warsh powell and gary:. -- gary cohn.hoice of the president and the administration and the decision is up to them. there are candidates whose names are in the newspapers. appropriate for me to get into deciding who is going to be the next chairman. would disagree with you but the basic idea here of if we have the turmoil in america and the economic uncertainty, will that migrate towards a more rule-based system and away from discretion over the coming years? >> the attraction of a rule-based system is large. in practice you would find yourself having to define the time when it is appropriate. even such things as three hurricanes in a row, which is not a huge surprise but it happens. and the many other things that will change policy. i think rules are a good taking ofto the basic where you want to go. let's get rid of the central bank. , do we need abook fed chair like chair yellen, who 1936?ad we have a number of candidates who have probably not even gone through those key chapters. >> they should read the whole book. wha

eh's not going to talk about kevin warsh.e a very wonderful conversation with a retiring stanley fischer. the key thing is the view forward on the political dynamics. the good luck comment on hill kashkari was something. francine: it was something. we will get back to the fed with your outstanding interview coming up. in the meantime, let's get to the bloomberg first word news. reporter: the girlfriend of the shooter in the las vegas massacre has returned to the u.s. she arrived in los angeles last night and was met by federal agents. she's been in the philippines. authorities have called her a person of interest. there are pictures showing the inside of stephen paddock's hotel room. he meticulously planned his attack, including setting up small cameras outside the room, so he could watch security approach. president trump is suggesting that puerto rico's government that it will need to be wiped out to help the island recover from hurricane damage. d, "you cannt sai say goodbye to that." committeesal defense are responding to

that wants a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, that's a dovish policy and not the typical kevin warshre what insight gundlach has >> maybe he likes the loose policy foe was appointed, he has said in the past banks should not have regulations eased, they should double the amount of capital they should have >> kashkari, yeah. >> that's a terrible position for the banks. >> and against the administration's policy of doubling in the financial sector. >>> coming up, we'll talk current sis acies and commoditi. i love you, couch. you give us comfort. and we give you bare feet, backsweat, and gordo's... everything. i love you, but sometimes you stink. soft surfaces trap odors. febreze fabric refresher cleans them away for good. because the things you love the most can stink. and plug in febreze to keep your whole room fresh for up to 45 days. breathe happy with febreze. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the u.s. dollar is coming off of some recent highs. it's been firmer lately in the trade. today off about 0.3% versus the yen. 0.10 verse the euro. the weak dollar has been such a tail

told us it yellen is out of the race and so is kevin warsh.d them, trump changes his mind every day, we cannot be sure what is going on. charley foster who knows all the said the next fed chair should be an economist, they should be ready to push back against forces in congress for example that are rushing against the fed's independence. when it comes to the taylor rule he thinks it is not mechanistic and john taylor would not apply it in a knee-jerk way. we sat him down, this is what he said about his pick for fed chair. >> i think john taylor, for example, as an economist, is likely to be much better equipped to deal with the kind of questions i was considering in terms of what we do. i am supportive of john. that is not to say the other candidates could not do a better job. given my criteria about what i think are needed, it leads to picking john. kathleen: i do not know if it is you who asked charles plosser about who trump would pick and he said he did not know, my depend what side of the bed donald trump got up on that morning. [laughter

change your outlooks completely, if we get some kind of tax reform pretty soon, and if somebody like kevin warshd. or does nothing change? >> the question on kevin, it is interesting, when you take someone and you put them in the actual seat where they have to govern or run things, how different is policy going to be? guys in the fixed income world are much more nuanced from an equity perspective. the equity market will not be as concerned as perhaps the headlines are. your second question on taxes, i think you will see, if we get the tax to go through, a big jump in the market immediately on the optimism that this will make growth pick up and the result will be more inflation and a more aggressive fed. i would faded the trade after you get initial response. vonnie: jonathan, thank you very much. jonathan golub of credit suisse securities. let's check in on the first four news with courtney donahoe. >> justin trudeau each with president trump today and justin trudeau playing up the similarities between his policy objectives and the president, the canadian leader arrived in washington just as the

it is much more qualified and that his back career gives him a lot more experience than that of kevin warsh who really is purely kind of a finance guy that's that certainly not the case with powell well we know that you like that a ray of a background a deep resume to really bring i want to say wisdom to the fed what about stanley fischer is chair last day coming up october thirteenth again we've come more than a couple of openings here how would you fill his chair. well i think that there are many other qualified candidates some of whom happen to be on the short list i do like the idea of john taylor from stanford i certainly don't advocate for central banking being run by one individual rule even if it's got his name on it the tailor role but i do advocate for what his rule exemplifies and that is an added measure of discipline among policymakers at the fed i think that we could use somebody like him if there's going to be an insistence on having many more academics come into the fed there are several other bankers i think that are extremely qualified as well but again their names did not

of mixed pick, where he could have a combination of john taylor and, potentially, someone like a kevin warshll. it will be interesting to see what goes on there. of the five names we have been reporting on, in addition to janet yellen and gary cohn, all would likely be advanced out of the senate banking committee, which has jurisdiction over this and likely face approval from the senate. vonnie: thank you, kevin cirilli. coming up, general alexis -- electrics' post earnings slump. analyst downgrades after friday's report. we will discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪ from london and new york, i'm mark barton. vonnie: and i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." i hit for shares of general electric this morning. -- a hit for shares of general electric this morning. most analysts warning of an impending dividend cut. "gew column entitled investors need to settle in. it's going to be a grind." does that imply that this quarter was not it? it was not the kitchen sink quarter? >> they got a lot of that out of the way this quarter, but they date for november 13 an analyst-inves

there is a broader list that has been just kevin warsh. you and i are fighting the same cold right now. almostink it is religious that you and i are fighting the same cold right now. everyone else should have it as well. you're a trooper for showing up, kevin cirilli, thank you so much on various for singles from washington. he is leaning so far back from he is leaning so far back from me to get away. harm bandholzparse with the debt now. i think there's a lot of confusion about why raise rates now. >> the economy does not need the policy anymore. we must not forget the fed has been, we take a couple of steps back when around the related issue to these are most unprecedented quality is very easing -- monetary easing. much has changed. the unemployment rate is close to 4%. more than eight years of economic growth. and yet if you look at the fed balance sheet and the interest rates go a look like nothing has happened. i think the fed is right in gradually, very gradually, normalizing the policy stats. hearine: this is what we more and more.

can you warm up to someone like kevin warsh?cker --can you warm up to soe kevin japp: he will bring up the interest rates much more quickly than anticipated. the two years will move. the 10 years may not move as quickly as some has anticipated. flatten from where we sit now. yousef: what about the ecb's plans to start looking at its balance sheet. one must quote as soon as possible exit from unconventional policies, they are not in a rush, are they? jaap: the program is ending in december so we expect another 40 billion a month for the next six months. yousef: what happens after that? what kind of impact is that go have? jaap: not materially. interest rates will still below for at least into next year. critically the ecb is concerned about the very low core inflation. inflation is still 1.5%. the euro has been stronger recently through importation will reduce inflationary pressures that are there. we are not going to see any change. we start to see some asset bubbles as well. yousef: we are going to get back to you shortly. he i

kevin warsh is qualified for the job, but i don't know they will pass the trump litmus test, not impeding trump fiscal agenda. fiscal rates are the formal for the economy, so low rates will help the economy accelerate. >> still ahead as we reviewed the week on bloomberg best, oil executives tell us where the crude could creep up to $60, plus a look at how automation is disrupting wall street. we will comb through earnings reports and up next, we will continue the top is this headlines. they may get a reprieve from the fcc. >> the fcc is close to saying, u.s. fine if you violate rules. we will not punish you for that. >> this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ this is bloomberg best, i'm mark olson and let's continue our top business stories and austria when voters went for youth in the national election. >> the 31-year-old foreign has claimed a victory as austria's next chancellor yet protections put the nationalist freedom party within reach as second-place. what do the results from austria mean for the rest of the european partners? matt: it shouldn't be anti-e.u.. party, thewing freedom party and austr

presumably, the three he is looking at, powell, yellen and taylor, and the other two are kevin warshy cohn. asked about , he says it isor in my thinking. a couple of other things are in my thinking, too. treasury secretary steve mnuchin is pushing for powell. mike pence likes taylor. wall street thinks powell is the most logical. it's look at 3203. throughre predictive thursday. you can see mr. powell is in the lead, warsh and yellen have gone down. taylor is down, as well. i can't help but think that after trump has mentioned, when we get the latest results from the betting websites, we will see he has moved up a bit. taylor is sparking a bigger bond selloff in howell. it would be saying a 10 point drop in yields if taylor gets chosen rather than jay powell. haidi: we talked about john taylor widely perceived as the most hawkish candidate, is this a good enough reason to not give him the job? kathleen: that's what everybody is suggesting. there was a terrific story about this on the bloomberg this weekend, look at it. they pointed out that given he has talked about fed policy, he mi